by Gloria R. Lalumia
World
Media Watch
by Gloria R. Lalumia
BUZZFLASH NOTE: Once again, these are the views and perspectives of the individual papers, not of BuzzFlash or Gloria. They offer BuzzFlash readers a way of reading what other nations are saying about the crisis, whether we like it or not. We repeat: This is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.
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1//The
Sunday Telegraph, UK--MoD TO BEGIN CALL-UP OF 1,000 RESERVES FOR IRAQ
WITHIN 10 DAYS (The timetable has been imposed on ministers by the need
to give the employers of reservists about two-months notice to arrange
cover. The timing of the call-up indicates that Geoff Hoon, the Defence
Secretary, has promised America that Britain's contribution will be operational
from the New Year... Most of the reservists are likely to be specialist
staff needed to supplement the Army's under-strength medical service.
Lewis Moonie, the defence minister responsible for the reserves, admitted
last month that the NHS could suffer "stretch" as a result.)
2//Albawaba.com, Unspecified ME, North Africa--REPORT: SADDAM REMOVING
GOLD, VALUABLES FROM BAGHDAD (...President Saddam Hussein has started
removing gold bars and valuable works of art from the capital of Baghdad
to the remote northwestern town of Abu Kamal near the border with Syria...)
[Editor's Note: This site is an excellent one-stop source of current news
from all of the countries in the region.]
3//Arab News, Saudi Arabia--AL-ASSAF WARNS AGAINST HEAVY DEPENDENCE ON OIL REVENUES (Finance and National Economy Minister Ibrahim Al-Assaf fired a warning shot yesterday over the Kingdom's heavy reliance on oil revenues, as a high-level symposium kicked off to draw up guidelines for the Saudi economy in the next two decades.)
4//The Daily Star, Lebanon--WAR IN IRAQ: THE ECONOMIC FALLOUT (Doubts about Saudi Arabia, especially after Sept. 11, led US strategies to seek a backup supply in the region. America needs 20 million barrels of crude a day, and the US National Energy Report of 2001 has singled out Iraq and Russia as the two countries that could meet that requirement. Increasing its dependence on Iraqi and Russian oil would both weaken OPEC's control on oil prices and give Washington a freer hand to exert pressure on Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states to pursue political and other economic reforms.)
5//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong-- INDONESIA: TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE AGAINST TERRORISM (Given the government's poor track record in fighting terrorism and the high political cost Megawati has to pay if she goes after Muslim clerics suspected as terrorists, there is no reason to believe that perpetrators of last weekend's attacks will ever see justice or their networks be destroyed.)
6//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting, USA--NORTH KOREA: ADMISSION AIMED AT DRAWING U.S. INTO TALKS (North Korea's reported confession about its ongoing nuclear program is part of a broader strategy to push Washington into final peace talks. Pyongyang has successfully used crises in the past to force dialogue with Washington, and North Korea's leadership has been building up to a confrontation in 2003, the 50th anniversary of the armistice that ended the Korean War.)
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1//The
Sunday Telegraph (Filed: 20/10/2002)
http://www.portal.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2002/10/20/nirq20.xml
&sSheet=/news/2002/10/20/ixnewstop.html&secureRefresh=true&_requestid=154858
MoD
TO BEGIN CALL-UP OF 1,000 RESERVES FOR IRAQ WITHIN 10 DAYS
By Francis Elliott, Deputy Political Editor
Britain will begin calling up reservists for military action against Iraq
within the next 10 days.
About 1,000 reserve troops will receive their papers by the end of this month as the military build-up gathers pace.
The timetable has been imposed on ministers by the need to give the employers of reservists about two-months notice to arrange cover.
The timing of the call-up indicates that Geoff Hoon, the Defence Secretary, has promised America that Britain's contribution will be operational from the New Year.
The numbers involved will provide other clues about the nature and size of the British force being assembled against Saddam Hussein.
The need for 1,000 reserves compares with an initial call-out of 1,500 part-time soldiers ahead of the Gulf war 12 years ago. Britain finally committed about 45,000 troops to Operation Granby, the UK contribution to Desert Storm.
(SNIP)
Most of the reservists are likely to be specialist staff needed to supplement the Army's under-strength medical service. Lewis Moonie, the defence minister responsible for the reserves, admitted last month that the NHS could suffer "stretch" as a result.
"We've been told to prepare to fill in the holes," a civil servant said after the briefing, which indicated that the Army will particularly need anaesthetists and surgeons.
The imminent call-up was confirmed by a senior MoD official. "We've got to move on this by the end of the month to keep to the timetable."
(SNIP)
Maj Gen Rob Fulton, a senior equipment specialist for the MoD, told MPs last week that a "desertification" programme for the main battle tanks of two armoured brigades was being "considered".
In fact the work, which will cost about £90 million, has already begun . "We're not doing it so that they can go on a trip round Poland," said an official.
(Related) 19 October 2002: Royal Navy sends four minehunters to the Gulf
2//Albawaba.com, Middle East Gateway October 20, 2002
http://www.albawaba.com/news/printArticle.php3?sid=230984&lang=e
REPORT: SADDAM REMOVING GOLD, VALUABLES FROM BAGHDAD
In anticipation of a United States strike against Iraq, President Saddam Hussein has started removing gold bars and valuable works of art from the capital of Baghdad to the remote northwestern town of Abu Kamal near the border with Syria, a German newspaper reported on Sunday.
(MORE)
3//Arab
News 20 October 2002 / 13 Sha`ban 1423
http://www.arabnews.com/Article.asp?ID=19589
AL-ASSAF
WARNS AGAINST HEAVY DEPENDENCE ON OIL REVENUES
By a Staff Writer
RIYADH, 20 October - Finance and National Economy Minister Ibrahim Al-Assaf fired a warning shot yesterday over the Kingdom's heavy reliance on oil revenues, as a high-level symposium kicked off to draw up guidelines for the Saudi economy in the next two decades.
"Dependence on oil revenues and consequently public spending as the main driving force for economic activity has made our economy vulnerable to changes in the international oil markets," Al-Assaf said.
"Heavy dependence on a main source of revenue linked to developments in the world economy and conditions on the oil markets constitutes a major challenge to fiscal policy planners in the Kingdom," he told the opening session of the symposium.
Crown Prince Abdullah, deputy premier and commander of the National Guard, launched the five-day symposium on a "Future Vision for the Saudi Economy" which is being held to help Saudi planners work out the Kingdom's long-term development strategy until 2020.
(SNIP)
Saudi Arabia boasted a $6.3 billion surplus in 2000, the only budget in the black in the past 20 years.
This year, the country is projecting a deficit of $12 billion, but preliminary financial results so far point to better-than-expected revenues thanks to high oil prices.
The Kingdom's public debt stood at a staggering $168 billion by the end of last year and, though all of it is domestic, economists believe it is hindering healthy economic development.
4//The Daily Star Beirut, Saturday October 19, 2002. Updated 08:30
AM +2GMT
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/business/19_10_02_c.htm
WAR
IN IRAQ: THE ECONOMIC FALLOUT
Henry T. Azzam is the chief executive officer of Jordinvest. He wrote
this commentary for
The Daily Star.
An attack on Iraq would have an adverse impact on the oil market, world growth prospects and the regional economic scene, while uncertainty about the timing and duration of the conflict would continue to unsettle regional stock markets. The more ambitious goal of "regime change" may require a larger force to be deployed and possibly for a longer period than in the 1991 Gulf War. A desperate regime is more likely to take desperate actions, adding to the cloud of uncertainty over the region. Those Arab countries who have established strong trade ties with Iraq have most to lose, while US oil companies eager to exploit Iraqi reserves have most to gain.
(SNIP)
Most analysts expect any military strike against Iraq to be swift, lasting no more than a few months and to end in regime change in Baghdad. Such a scenario would have limited effects on oil prices. Prices have surged by 45 percent so far this year to $29 a barrel for Brent crude in anticipation of a war on Iraq. As happened in the 1991 war, the commencement of military action could push prices toward the $35-$40 level. If the war were swift, prices could soon plunge to $20 a barrel, replicating what happened 11 years ago. There is a real possibility that a change of regime in Iraq would bring sanctions to an end, allowing the country to return to its former oil production status. In a few years, and with the support of American oil companies, Iraq could gradually assume its oil production target of 6 million barrels per day (bpd). This would bring lower oil prices in the months and years ahead as Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members would resist cutting production in order to make room for additional Iraqi exports.
Doubts about Saudi Arabia, especially after Sept. 11, led US strategies to seek a backup supply in the region. America needs 20 million barrels of crude a day, and the US National Energy Report of 2001 has singled out Iraq and Russia as the two countries that could meet that requirement. Increasing its dependence on Iraqi and Russian oil would both weaken OPEC's control on oil prices and give Washington a freer hand to exert pressure on Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states to pursue political and other economic reforms.
(MORE)
5//Asia Times Online October 19, 2002
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/DJ19Ae01.html
INDONESIA:
TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE AGAINST TERRORISM
By Richel Langit
JAKARTA - The deadly bomb blasts in Bali last weekend prove that terrorist groups - be they international or home-grown - do exist in Indonesia, but whether the attacks will invigorate the country's resolve to fight against terrorism remains a big question.
While the police have declared Muslim cleric Abu Bakar Ba'asyir a suspect in a string of bomb attacks against churches in Jakarta and some other cities on Christmas Eve, 2000, speculation is running high that the move was merely a smokescreen in reaction to strong international pressure for President Megawati Sukarnoputri to act against religious leaders or groups suspected as terrorist agents or networks.
Ba'asyir, who is also chairman of the Indonesian Mujahidin Council, has been identified as the founder and leader of Jemaah Islamiah, which had been declared a regional terrorist network by neighboring countries Singapore, Malaysia, and Australia. The Philippines and the United States have also put Ba'asyir on their terrorist lists.
The government was also scheduled to issue a regulation on anti-terrorism on Friday that will provide law enforcers with legal grounds to detain or question suspected terrorists. But the draft of the regulation suggested that it will be inadequate to combat a terrorist network that has proved itself capable of wreaking havoc in the world's biggest Muslim country.
The draft, for example, does not make any concrete definition of terrorism and excludes politically-motivated crimes, allowing terror perpetrators to hide behind political issues to elude prosecution.
The draft is also full of loopholes for human-rights violations. Suspected terrorists, for example, can be detained for three days without charge and are not allowed to bring in lawyers during interrogations.
Given the government's poor track record in fighting terrorism and the high political cost Megawati has to pay if she goes after Muslim clerics suspected as terrorists, there is no reason to believe that perpetrators of last weekend's attacks will ever see justice or their networks be destroyed.
(MORE)
6//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting 18 October 2002
http://www.stratfor.com/fib/topStory_view.php?ID=207053
NORTH KOREA: ADMISSION AIMED AT DRAWING U.S. INTO TALKS
Summary
North Korea's reported confession about its ongoing nuclear program is part of a broader strategy to push Washington into final peace talks. Pyongyang has successfully used crises in the past to force dialogue with Washington, and North Korea's leadership has been building up to a confrontation in 2003, the 50th anniversary of the armistice that ended the Korean War.
Analysis
(SNIP)
For North Korea, however, the admission of having an active nuclear program was not an isolated event but part of a carefully orchestrated strategy to push Washington into talks. Pyongyang has successfully exploited security crises in the past to extract international benefits: The initial 1994 Agreed Framework followed a standoff that nearly led to another war on the peninsula. By raising the specter of a nuclear-armed North Korea, one with an active and developed weapons program, Pyongyang intends to leave Washington little choice but to come to the negotiating table.
North Korea's leaders have been building up to a confrontation in 2003, a symbolically important year which marks the 50th anniversary of the armistice that ended the Korean War. Pyongyang already has claimed that, because 2003 was the original date set for the completion of the light water reactors, the United States is in default on the deal because little progress has been made in the construction of the reactors and the project already is running years behind.
Pyongyang has implied that the collapse of the reactor deal would leave North Korea a de facto nuclear state, something the latest revelation about its weapons program seems to verify. And with its self-imposed moratorium on long-range missile tests ending in 2003, Pyongyang, by extension, also would have an available delivery system for its nuclear weapons.
Pyongyang has carefully monitored the actions of the current U.S. government and feels that the Bush administration's "hard-line" stance may in fact make it an easier negotiating partner since it is more predictable than previous administrations. And, as the United States has tacitly revealed that it does not consider a pre-emptive military strike an option for dealing with a state already in possession of nuclear weapons -- as opposed to one still developing them like Iraq -- Pyongyang is fairly confident that Washington will engage in negotiations rather than military brinksmanship.
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©
2002, Gloria R. Lalumia
insight@zianet.com
Updated listings of Radio for Progressives on the internet at http://www.zianet.com/insightanalytical
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