by Gloria R. Lalumia
October 16, 2002
World Media Watch
by Gloria R. Lalumia
BUZZFLASH NOTE: Once again, these are the views and perspectives of the individual papers, not of BuzzFlash or Gloria. They offer BuzzFlash readers a way of reading what other nations are saying about the crisis, whether we like it or not. We repeat: This is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.
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1//Arab News, Saudi Arabia--KINGDOM WON'T HELP US IN IRAQ WAR: SULTAN (Saudi Arabia will not provide any assistance for the planned US military offensive against Iraq, Prince Sultan, second deputy premier and minister of defense and aviation, announced yesterday..."The Kingdom has a special status in the Arab and Muslim worlds, as it is home to the two holy mosques. It will not sacrifice this status for the sake of anyone," the prince said.)
2//Stratfor
Strategic Forecasting, USA--AL QAEDA GEARING UP FOR OFFENSIVE IN SAUDI
ARABIA? (Two separate incidents connected to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, and
possibly involving radicals may suggest that militants in the kingdom
are gearing up for an offensive aimed at the Saudi government as well
as Americans and other Westerners. Expatriates living in the kingdom should
take all security precautions prescribed by the U.S. State Department.
3//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong--WAR ON TERROR SUFFERS SETBACKS (US President
George W Bush's war against terrorism does not appear to be going as well
as planned. While the White House succeeded in cowing sufficient numbers
of Democrats last week to get Congress's approval for war with Iraqi President
Saddam Hussein, a series of attacks on key Western targets have suggested
that, despite their defeat in Afghanistan, al-Qaeda and its supporters
are far from finished.)
4//The Jakarta Post, Indonesia--TNI ACCUSED OF PROLONGING REGIONAL CONFLICTS (Military personnel in conflict areas have worked to escalate violence there in order to maintain their control over business activities, experts said on Monday. They said military personnel in conflict areas were often involved in weapon smuggling, illegal logging, and car smuggling... "Even dead bodies also have a price. If your family member is missing or dead, you must pay at least Rp 2 million to military officers to get the body," he said.)
5//Far Eastern Economic Review, Hong Kong--WAR JITTERS (Now, however, attention has switched to the likely effect of war on business and consumer sentiment in the U.S., and how that will be transmitted back up the export supply chain to Asia's economies. Suddenly the forecasters are sounding a lot more downbeat. "The U.S. economy is going to experience a double-dip recession," warns Tim Condon, chief economist at ING Financial Services in Hong Kong. Mounting uncertainty ahead of any military campaign will prompt greater risk aversion among U.S. corporations and consumers, stifling economic activity and pushing the U.S. back into economic contraction during the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2003, Condon argues.)
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1//Arab
News 5 October 2002 / 8 Sha`ban 1423
http://www.arabnews.com/Article.asp?ID=19446
KINGDOM
WON'T HELP US IN IRAQ WAR: SULTAN
By a Staff Writer
RIYADH, 15 October - Saudi Arabia will not provide any assistance for the planned US military offensive against Iraq, Prince Sultan, second deputy premier and minister of defense and aviation, announced yesterday.
"Saudi Arabia will not provide any assistance in any strikes against Iraq," Prince Sultan said in comments published in the London-based Al-Hayat newspaper.
"The Kingdom has a special status in the Arab and Muslim worlds, as it is home to the two holy mosques. It will not sacrifice this status for the sake of anyone," the prince said.
Prince Sultan, however, urged Baghdad "not to provide the opportunity to anyone to find the justification for launching a military offensive against Iraq".
Iraq should leave its doors wide open for all international inspectors in order to foil any pretext for launching military strikes, Prince Sultan said, adding that he did not believe a US-led offensive against Iraq was "inevitable".
(SNIP)
In Algeria, Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal echoed Prince Sultan, saying Riyadh was opposed to a war on Iraq and will not participate in any possible US strike against its northern neighbor.
(SNIP)
"I had never said that Saudi Arabia agrees to allow the use of its territory to strike Iraq," he added, in a reply to a question on whether Saudi Arabia would let the US use its territories as a launching pad for strikes on Iraq.
(SNIP)
In Doha, Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa said yesterday no Arab soldier would join an eventual US attack on Iraq. "All Arab states reject military action against Iraq and no Arab soldier will take part in such action," he said at the end of a one-day visit to Qatar, quoted by the Qatari News Agency (QNA).
(MORE)
2//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting 15 October 2002
http://www.stratfor.com/fib/topStory_view.php?ID=206962
AL QAEDA GEARING UP FOR OFFENSIVE IN SAUDI ARABIA?
Summary
Two separate incidents connected to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, and possibly involving radicals may suggest that militants in the kingdom are gearing up for an offensive aimed at the Saudi government as well as Americans and other Westerners. Expatriates living in the kingdom should take all security precautions prescribed by the U.S. State Department.
Analysis
Saudi Arabian Airlines said in a statement Oct. 15 that a hijack attempt aboard a flight from Sudan on its way to Jeddah was foiled after special forces disarmed and arrested a Saudi man carrying a gun. A few hours earlier, an allegedly drunk Saudi citizen rammed his car into the gates of the U.S. Consulate in Jeddah, Agence France-Presse reported.
Taken together -- and following a string of terrorism-related incidents in Indonesia, Kuwait, the Philippines and Yemen -- the hijacking and the "accident" in Jeddah may indicate that militants associated with the al Qaeda network have been given the green light to conduct attacks in the kingdom and elsewhere.
Until the U.S. war in Afghanistan, local militants may have held back due to Riyadh's recognition of the Taliban government. Now however, al Qaeda second-in-command Ayman Zawahiri is warning of more attacks. If his claims are true, an outbreak of al Qaeda strikes in the kingdom against Westerners and the government could destabilize the government in Riyadh and irreparably damage U.S.-Saudi ties.
The spread of radicalism in Saudi Arabia, and its export abroad for operations such as the Sept. 11 strikes, has become a defining feature of the country's political situation and a key element straining U.S.-Saudi relations. The ruling House of Saud has moved cautiously to weed out dissent, desperately trying to contain growing internal dissatisfaction fueled by rising costs of living and high unemployment, while at the same time managing domestically unpopular ties with the United States.
The result of all this is an extensive but underground network of radical militants in the kingdom, which has made itself known through a spate of attacks against Westerners since the mid-1990s.
(SNIP)
A war in the kingdom between the government and radicals has been in the offing for more than a decade, following the end of the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and the return of Osama bin Laden and his followers to Saudi Arabia. If al Qaeda now is signaling its local Saudi allies to launch an offensive, then the government's next move will need to be both brutal and bold, taking more direct steps to quell the radical militant activity in the kingdom.
However, once the government launches such a campaign it cannot draw back, and the backlash easily could entail a wide-scale offensive against Westerners in the country. Already under strict security alerts, expatriates living and working in the kingdom now may want to start thinking about relocating.
3//Asia Times Online October 15, 2002
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/DJ16Ae01.html
WAR
ON TERROR SUFFERS SETBACKS
By Jim Lobe (Inter Press Service)
WASHINGTON - US President George W Bush's war against terrorism does not
appear to be going as well as planned.
While the White House succeeded in cowing sufficient numbers of Democrats last week to get Congress's approval for war with Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, a series of attacks on key Western targets have suggested that, despite their defeat in Afghanistan, al-Qaeda and its supporters are far from finished.
(SNIP)
Even more distressing, particularly for those running the "war against terror" on the ground, was last Thursday's vote in Pakistan, when a coalition of Islamist parties, some openly sympathetic to al-Qaeda, emerged with much greater support than anyone had predicted.
(SNIP)
"Seeing an electoral majority on a border province that is probably the most sensitive province in Pakistan for US military operations will obviously have implications," Samina Ahmed, Pakistan project director for the International Crisis Group, told the New York Times this weekend.
More to the point, the MMA's platform called for Pakistan to stop permitting US military and intelligence forces to use Pakistani territory as a base for rooting out the remnants of al-Qaeda and the Taliban, Afghanistan's former regime.
Another national election in the region also has US officials on edge, this one in Turkey, a key ally in any war against Iraq. The Justice and Development Party (AKP), the latest incarnation of an Islamist party that has been banned repeatedly for violating the country's secularist constitution, is poised to win at least a third of the popular vote and emerge as the nation's largest party by far.
Experts say its popularity is due far more to the corruption and inefficiency of its secular rivals than to hostility to Washington or the war on terrorists. But growing anger in Turkey about Israel's actions against Palestinians, Washington's strong backing for Israel, and the perception that Bush is forcing Turkey to support a risky war against Iraq has reportedly added to expectations about the AKP's showing.
While its leaders have stressed that the AKP will cooperate with US strategy in the region and the International Monetary Fund's efforts to bail out its struggling economy, a sweeping victory by the party could set up a new confrontation with Turkey's staunchly pro-US and pro-Israel military establishment that was behind the ouster of the last Islamist government in 1997.
(SNIP)
Despite Kuwait's alliance with the United States - indeed, the emirate is expected to be the main launching pad for any US invasion of Iraq - recent reports have indicated growing anti-US sentiment, particularly within followers of the main Islamist Party, which holds a third of the seats in the Kuwaiti parliament.
While fingers quickly pointed to al-Qaeda - or what Washington alleges is its local ally in Indonesia, Jemaah Islamiyah - as the likeliest suspect in the Bali blast, Jemaah leader Abu Bakar Bashir vehemently denied it. One Indonesia expert here, University of Washington Professor Dan Lev, said the fact that it took place on a predominantly Hindu island and in a spot that would be little frequented by Muslims did suggest the possibility of an Islamist connection.
But it could also have been a provocation by elements in the army, whose ties to Jemaah go back almost 30 years. If blame could be diverted, such an incident would demonstrate to both Indonesians and Washington that "you really need the army to restore stability throughout the country".
"The army has access to explosives, they have the experience, and they move with relative ease," said Lev, stressing that it was premature to reach any conclusion.
4//The Jakarta Post October 16, 200
http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailnational.asp?fileid=20021015.C01&irec=0
TNI
ACCUSED OF PROLONGING REGIONAL CONFLICTS
Moch. N. Kurniawan, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
Military personnel in conflict areas have worked to escalate violence there in order to maintain their control over business activities, experts said on Monday.
They said military personnel in conflict areas were often involved in weapon smuggling, illegal logging, and car smuggling.
Sri Yanuarti of the Indonesian Institute of Science (LIPI), Ichsan Malik of Conflict Resolution Baku Bae Maluku and analyst Otto Syamsuddin urged military personnel to stop their business activities and concentrate on their duties.
"The trend is that when clashes ease, unidentified military officers always try to escalate the conflict again to ensure they can continue their business activities," Sri Yanuarti said.
She said as an institution the military didn't directly promote such an escalation of conflict but it took no measures to prevent or stop it.
"High-ranking military officers in Jakarta know that their subordinates in Maluku have control over various business activities, but they don't stop them," Ichsan said at a seminar on military business interests in conflict areas.
(SNIP)
"Even dead bodies also have a price. If your family member is missing or dead, you must pay at least Rp 2 million to military officers to get the body," he said.
Sri urged the government to audit military foundations and cooperatives to find out the source of their funds.
According to Sri, military business entities should be put under the auspices of the Office of the State Minister for State Enterprises, and the profit should be distributed to the military through the state budget.
5//Far Eastern Economic Review Issue cover-dated October 17, 2002
http://www.feer.com/articles/2002/0210_17/p049money.html
WAR
JITTERS
If the United States goes to war with Iraq, the impact on regional exports
could be devastating
By Tom Holland/HONG KONG
FOR GOVERNMENT officials and business bosses who met this month in Kuala Lumpur for the World Economic Forum's East Asian meeting, these are troubling economic times. Just 12 months after the wrenching export contraction that followed the events of last September 11, Asia finds itself forced to contemplate the economic impact of a likely United States military assault on Iraq.
A war would threaten growth prospects around the world, but especially in Asia, Malaysian Trade Minister Rafidah Aziz warned delegates in Kuala Lumpur, echoing gloomy comments by Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. Alongside a higher oil price and greater investor risk aversion, the region is likely to undergo a second downturn in demand for its exports. The slump could be so severe that a handful of economies, including those of Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan, could even be thrust back into recession.
This pessimism stands in stark contrast to the offhand way economists dismissed the threat of war just a few weeks ago. Then the focus of attention was the oil price. With oil at around $25 a barrel, the petroleum-production industry was worth around 2% of the globe's GDP. Analysts reasoned that a war-driven increase in the crude price, say a 40% rise to $35 a barrel, would subtract at most one percentage point from the global growth rate. With the International Monetary Fund's growth forecast for 2003 then at 4%, even a sustained increase in the oil price, while deleterious to Asian growth prospects, would not be disastrous.
Now, however, attention has switched to the likely effect of war on business and consumer sentiment in the U.S., and how that will be transmitted back up the export supply chain to Asia's economies. Suddenly the forecasters are sounding a lot more downbeat. "The U.S. economy is going to experience a double-dip recession," warns Tim Condon, chief economist at ING Financial Services in Hong Kong. Mounting uncertainty ahead of any military campaign will prompt greater risk aversion among U.S. corporations and consumers, stifling economic activity and pushing the U.S. back into economic contraction during the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2003, Condon argues.
Even if the U.S. Federal Reserve does, as Condon expects, move rapidly to slash interest rates, cutting the benchmark federal funds target rate to 0.5% from 1.75% currently, Asia would still suffer. U.S. demand for Asian exports would evaporate, leading to a repeat of last year's export crunch.
(MORE)
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©
2002, Gloria R. Lalumia
insight@zianet.com
Updated listings of Radio for Progressives on the internet at http://www.zianet.com/insightanalytical
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