World Media Watch for October 2, 2002

BUZZFLASH NOTE: Once again, these are the views and perspectives of the individual papers, not of BuzzFlash or Gloria. They offer BuzzFlash readers a way of reading what other nations are saying about the crisis, whether we like it or not. We repeat: This is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

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1//Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), Iran--KUWAITI TERRITORY NOT TO BE USED FOR US UNILATERAL ACTION: MINISTER (Kuwaiti Defense Minister Sheikh Jaber al-Mubarak as-Sabah said on Tuesday that Kuwait will not allow its territory to be used as a base for military strikes on Iraq in absence of the United Nations Security Council resolution. Speaking at a joint press conference with Iranian Defense Minister Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, as-Sabah said that Kuwait will take part in any international action against Iraq if approved by the UN Security Council.)

2//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting, USA--YEMEN: POWER STRUGGLE COULD HURT U.S. BRITISH ASSETS (A power struggle in Yemen between the central government and a powerful northwestern-based tribe could erupt into bloody warfare in the short- to mid-term. If pushed to the wall, the opposition may respond with attacks against Western interests and assets.)

3//Yemen Times, Yemen--VIEW POINT: SUICIDAL WAR AGAINST IRAQ? (Who guarantees that hell would not break loose causing destruction or threats to US interests in the region?...It is up to the American people and administration to go for the war, but this is a dangerous game being played, and who knows? Maybe this would be a direct hit at American interests leading to a gradual suicidal attempt that could start with the economy and end with the fall of the super power of the world.)

4//TurkishPress.com, USA--THE U.S., IRAQ AND TURKEY (Within a few hours of each other, Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz and US Assistant Secretary of State Elizabeth Jones yesterday arrived separately in Ankara. Both came to ask for Turkey's help. Turkey, in turn, told them, 'You help me.')

5//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong--ECONOMIC WOES THREATEN SAUDI STABILITY (As a similar situation exists in almost all other energy-rich Arab states of the southern Persian Gulf, the eruption of mass anti-government movements and/or the emergence of fast growing extremist groups in Saudi Arabia will most probably spill over into its equally vulnerable neighboring states. At which point, oil prices will not be the only victim of dissent and extremism.)

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1//Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) Last Update Tuesday, 01-Oct-2002 07:15:37 PDT
http://www.irna.com/en/hphoto/020930000000.ehp.shtml

KUWAITI TERRITORY NOT TO BE USED FOR US UNILATERAL ACTION: MINISTER

Tehran, Oct 1, IRNA -- Kuwaiti Defense Minister Sheikh Jaber al-Mubarak as-Sabah said on Tuesday that Kuwait will not allow its territory to be used as a base for military strikes on Iraq in absence of the United Nations Security Council resolution.

Speaking at a joint press conference with Iranian Defense Minister Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, as-Sabah said that Kuwait will take part in any international action against Iraq if approved by the UN Security Council.

He said that Kuwait always advocates regime change in Iraq to take place by the international organizations.

Answering a question whether the current defense cooperation between Iran and Kuwait is strategic or tactical and whether an agreement will be signed in this field, as-Sabah said that his three-day negotiations in Tehran were constructive and positive adding that a defense agreement will be signed with Iran soon.

(SNIP)

A foreign reporter asked about the time-table for withdrawal of the US troops from Kuwait, as-Sabah said that the US troops have come to Kuwait for military exercise and will leave the country after ending the exercises.

Shamkhani, for his part, said that Iran has voiced opposition to any US unilateral action against Iraq and called on the Iraqi regime to fully comply with the UN Security Council resolution by allowing in the UN arms inspectors.

Asked whether Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri during his visit to Iran sought Iran's support for Iraq in case of US military strikes, he said that Iran will never support Iraq in the event of possible US military strikes.

(SNIP)

He said that Iran and Kuwait are exposed to the same threat adding that the two countries are following the strategy of confidence building in the region as the best way to ease tension.

Answering a question about Iran's defense preparedness to deal with the consequences of military strikes on Iraq on the border areas, Shamkhani said that Iran believes that the United States should abandon its unilateral approach in the Middle East and Iraq for his part must comply with the United Nations resolutions. However, Iran is well prepared to minimize the consequences of possible US attacks on Iraq on its border-line.

(MORE)

2//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting 1 October 2002
http://www.stratfor.com/fib/topStory_view.php?ID=206532

YEMEN: POWER STRUGGLE COULD HURT U.S. BRITISH ASSETS

Summary

A power struggle in Yemen between the central government and a powerful northwestern-based tribe could erupt into bloody warfare in the short- to mid-term. If pushed to the wall, the opposition may respond with attacks against Western interests and assets.

Analysis

Bloody tribal warfare may be about to erupt in Yemen. On Oct. 1, the official SABA news agency reported that the government had arrested two sons of Sheikh Abdullah al-Ahmar, who is Yemen's Parliament speaker, leader of the Islamist opposition Islah Party and a chieftain of the Hashid tribe. His sons were arrested Sept. 30 after a shootout the previous day between Hashid tribesmen and Yemeni security forces in front of the British Embassy in Sanaa.

Various tribes hold power over different territories in Yemen. Al-Ahmar's Islah Party represents Islamist factions of the Hashid tribal confederation in the northwest, while Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh's government controls only a narrow portion of the country, largely around the capital.

Saleh is related to the Hashid tribal leader, and the recent clashes may be part of an internal power struggle. Al-Ahmar accused the central government earlier this month of using money to scare opposition members and weaken his party, one of the first indications that ties between the two sides may be deteriorating.

(SNIP)

Saleh also may be taking advantage of U.S. military sweeps against militants to target key tribal leaders in the northwest, which is traditional Hashid territory. One possible target is the leader of the Islah Party's militant wing, Abdul-Majeed al-Zindani, who allegedly is close to al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. The government in Sanaa seems to using the hunt for al Qaeda to diminish the Hashids' political power.

The large segment of the northwest that the Hashid tribe controls is an important trade route to Saudi Arabia. Al-Ahmar also reportedly has close ties with Riyadh, and Saleh may be hoping to weaken his rivals in order to reduce Saudi Arabian influence in Yemen.

As the struggle heats up, both sides will turn to violence. Negotiations are possible, but the government's crackdown and continued pressure on its opponents are putting al-Ahmar in a tough position. Resistance may be the only acceptable response, and since the Hashids see Westerners as Saleh's allies, U.S. and British interests may become a target of attacks.

3//Yemen Times 40 - September 30 thru October 6, 2002, Vol XI
http://www.yementimes.com/02/iss40/view.htm#1

VIEW POINT: SUICIDAL WAR AGAINST IRAQ?

There is no doubt that the war against Iraq has become eminent. You may have heard the news of the seven-day ultimatum to be included in the new resolution, which is expected to be out within days. The US, UK-led resolution will give a week for Iraq to agree on the new resolution, which has already been rejected before it was out, unless Iraq steps down once again.

Hence, as the US is preparing for the war one needs to ask, "how on earth will the US handle the possible negative consequences on its own economy if things get out of hand?" Everyone knows that the US economy is dependent on the oil basins in the Arabian Peninsula and that a war at this time against an Islamic country would probably trigger massive outrage and anger among the public in those countries. It may be a repeat of the demonstrations that took place following the Jenin massacre and which faded away days later. But who guarantees that it would be in such a fashion? Who guarantees that hell would not break loose causing destruction or threats to US interests in the region?

Many Americans have started discussing the possible consequences of attacking Iraq, not on the Arab world or any other country only, but on the American interests as well. The fear of having devastating impact on the economy of the US is already evident in many statements of democrat senators in the US congress.

(SNIP)

Again, how committed is the US to rebuilding a tarnished Iraq if it will be able to remove its leader from power without heavy casualties? What will the implications of having a pro-US regime neighboring one of the elements of the 'axis of evil' without any possible escalation in the future?

These are legitimate questions that Americans as well as the Arab world should be asking. Launching a war is not an easy task, and winning it is even more difficult. Assuming that Iraq had chemical and biological weapons, does the US administration have a plan to avoid the possible use of those weapons against anyone, including the American troops? Is launching the war a risk worth taking even though it will cost billions of US dollars?

It is up to the American people and administration to go for the war, but this is a dangerous game being played, and who knows? Maybe this would be a direct hit at American interests leading to a gradual suicidal attempt that could start with the economy and end with the fall of the super power of the world.

Some American readers may respond by saying, "this is mere nonsense!" Are they right?

Only time will tell!

4//TurkishPress.com Tuesday, October 01, 2002
http://www.turkishpress.com/turkishpress/news.asp?ID=7193
Source: Office of the Prime Minister, Directorate General of Press and Information

THE U.S., IRAQ AND TURKEY

CUMHURIYET- Columnist Mustafa Balbay writes on recent developments on the Iraq issue vis-a-vis this week's separate visits of Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz and US Assistant Secretary of State Elizabeth Jones. A summary of his column is as follows:

Within a few hours of each other, Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz and US Assistant Secretary of State Elizabeth Jones yesterday arrived separately in Ankara. Both came to ask for Turkey's help. Turkey, in turn, told them, 'You help me.' All the high-level officials who met Jones yesterday sang the same tune: 'Turkey is an ally of the US, and we believe that there is much we can do together in the 21st century. But we have serious reservations about the Iraq issue, and not just those related to Turkey's situation alone. First of all, the Middle East cannot weather three simultaneous crises. There is the Israel-Palestinian conflict. Moreover, Afghanistan is also a part of the region. Now, when you add an Iraq adventure on top of these two, how will you justify and explain your reasons for this vexing trio? You should reconsider your plans. The economic dimensions of a possible operation's impact on Turkey alone are huge enough. 1991's Gulf War cost Turkey some $50 billion. Another war could plunge Turkey's economy into a complete chaos.' Jones' response was short and to the point: 'We are fully aware and have taken note of Turkey's sensitivities on this issue. However, at the moment we are concerned about what the UN Security Council will decide.'

(SNIP)

Tariq Aziz was Ankara's other guest yesterday. He is expected to deliver Saddam Hussein's message to top levels of the state that what the US is planning would violate international law and that therefore it must be stopped. Turkey will then tell Saddam, essentially, be a good boy and do as the UN tells you.

Turkey is already quite busy with the Israel-Palestinian conflict as one of the very few states able to talk to both sides. In addition, Turkey has undertaken a great responsibility in Afghanistan, as well. And now, the Iraq issue. Here is one question Turkey has asked of neither Jones nor Aziz: 'How far should Turkey get involved in the Iraq issue?' This is the crucial question. Let me remind me my readers of last weekend's meeting in Cappadocia where the situation of Iraq's Turkmens was discussed. All in all, Turkey is seriously weighing every possible contingency in Iraq, and it seems that its Iraq agenda will grow even more tense.

5//Asia Times Online Oct 2, 2002
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/DJ02Ak02.html

ECONOMIC WOES THREATEN SAUDI STABILITY
By Hooman Peimani
Dr Hooman Peimani works as an independent consultant with international organizations in Geneva and does research in international relations.

Last week, Saudi Arabia's Labor and Social Affairs Minister Ali Bin Ibrahim al-Namla stated that approximately one third of his country's workforce, about 3.2 million people, was unemployed, and unemployment was increasing.

Unsurprisingly, reports suggest that the Saudi government is concerned about the negative impact of such a situation on social stability. As the Persian Gulf prepares for the seemingly inevitable American war against Iraq, existing opposition in the Arab world, including in Saudi Arabia, to that war and a prevailing resentment among average Arabs towards American Middle Eastern policy will likely further politicize the already dissatisfied Saudis.

Such unrest could have long-term dire consequences on Saudi Arabia's stability. Beside its political backlash, any major contribution of the Saudi regime to an American war will further worsen the country's economy, while at the same time making the situation more suitable for the expansion of extremist anti-regime political views in the near future.

The significance of the Saudi minister's statement on unemployment lay not so much in the fact of the economic difficulties of his country, but in his providing a figure revealing the depth of the difficulties. Contrary to what many people outside the Persian Gulf might think, Saudi Arabia is no longer the rich and prosperous country of the last few decades of the 20th century. In fact, its economic demise began in the 1990s, for which several factors were responsible. (Current annual growth is about 1 percent.)

One factor was the heavy cost of the Gulf War of 1991 for the Saudi economy. Saudi Arabia paid for a large share of the operation to force Iraq to withdraw from Kuwait, estimated at about $60 billion. Another was its large military order in the wake of the war. Added to the American pressure, fear of a future Iraqi threat and a desire to reward the Americans made the Saudi government sign contracts with American companies to purchase about $30 billion worth of weapons. While financial difficulties forced the Saudis to cancel part of the order, the remainder was large enough to help weaken the Saudi economy.

(SNIP)

The four mentioned factors have contributed to the worsening economic situation. The resulting fewer employment opportunities and a decline in government-provided services have contributed to a growing social discontent among Saudis, the majority of whom are becoming poorer. Added to this economic source, the Saudi regime itself has functioned as a source of discontent, being an undemocratic political system that bans political participation for its citizens, and it lacks democratic institutions such as political parties, a parliament and open elections. Its rigid interpretation and enforcement of Islamic law, with extensive constraints on social activities and its denial of basic human rights, such as freedom of speech and gender, equality have created dissatisfaction among Saudis.

To this picture, one should add another major source of dissatisfaction. A decade-long stationing of the American military in Saudi Arabia has provoked hostility among an increasing number of Saudis, not only towards the Americans, but also towards the Saudi regime, now seem as a puppet state in their eyes. The Americans' pro-Israeli policy towards the Middle East and the proposed war against Iraq have increased hostility towards them in the entire Arab world, including Saudi Arabia, making the American military presence in that country even more irritating for the Saudis.

In such a situation, any Saudi involvement in the American war against Iraq will only further erode from its already damaged legitimacy. The resulting weakened stability will be even more fragile if the Saudi government makes financial contributions to such a war in one form or another. Any major contribution will only further deepen its economic problems, with predictable destabilizing social consequences.

(SNIP)

As a similar situation exists in almost all other energy-rich Arab states of the southern Persian Gulf, the eruption of mass anti-government movements and/or the emergence of fast growing extremist groups in Saudi Arabia will most probably spill over into its equally vulnerable neighboring states. At which point, oil prices will not be the only victim of dissent and extremism.

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© 2002, Gloria R. Lalumia
insight@zianet.com

Updated listings of Radio for Progressives on the internet at http://www.zianet.com/insightanalytical

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