World Media Watch for September 30, 2002

BUZZFLASH NOTE: Once again, these are the views and perspectives of the individual papers, not of BuzzFlash or Gloria. They offer BuzzFlash readers a way of reading what other nations are saying about the crisis, whether we like it or not. We repeat: This is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

* * *

1//World Press Review Online, USA--SPIN UNSPUN: U.S. RADIO BROADCASTS VIE FOR THE HEARTS AND MINDS OF ARAB YOUTH (The remarkably popular Radio Sawa, which replaced Voice of America's Arabic service, comes courtesy of the U.S. International Broadcasting Bureau, operated and funded by the U.S. government's Broadcasting Board of Governors. The broadcasts are the latest U.S. strategy to counter anti-American sentiment in the Arab world by communicating directly in Arabic with Arab youth-targeting listeners under 30, who comprise more than 60 percent of the region's population…[Links to live streaming and a translated news broadcast are below.])

2//The Straits Times, Malaysia--ASIANS DOUBTFUL OF CASE FOR IRAQ WAR (An overwhelming 85 per cent are opposed to military action against Iraq without a UN mandate. As many as 91 out of 97 respondents said they wanted the US to wait for a UN mandate, before striking Baghdad.)

3//F.A.Z. Weekly (Frankfurter Allgemeine), Germany--GREENS SET FOR BIGGER THINGS (What impact the bigger role for the formerly pacifist party will have on foreign policy remained less clear. The Greens' lead candidate, Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, is a committed interventionist and said on Thursday that he would fly to Washington "at the earliest possible opportunity" to begin repairing a rift over Schröder's campaign-trail vow that Germany would not participate in any military attack on Iraq.)

4//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong--RUSSIA, IRAN: STEPPING ON THE GAS (By cooperating with Iran on non-military nuclear projects and exploring an alliance on natural gas, Russia seems intent on finding and exploiting the pressure points in its relationship with the US. That relationship has experienced tensions because of a growing conflict of interest between the two sides. In particular, various events over the past few months have revealed a split between Russia and the United States after a relatively long period of stable relations in the post-Soviet era.)

5//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting, USA--WASHINGTON'S DISTRACTION OPENING DOOR FOR CHINA IN INDONESIA (China and Indonesia have stepped up economic and military ties in recent months. Despite Indonesia's historical distrust of Chinese regional ambitions, Jakarta is rethinking its relations in order to gain economic, political and security leverage. Washington's preoccupation with Iraq and the anti-terrorism war appear to have offered Beijing a unique strategic opportunity...China, the key focus of U.S. strategic planners just 18 months ago, now sits on the sidelines, with only the occasional noise from the intelligence community about the fact that the long-term strategic challenge of China remains unchanged.)

* * *

1//World Press Review Online Sept. 26, 2002
http://www.worldpress.org/Mideast/739.cfm

SPIN UNSPUN
U.S. Radio Broadcasts Vie for the Hearts and Minds of Arab Youth

Abdalla Hassan
Cairo, Egypt

"The newest songs and the latest news" is the catch phrase of Radio Sawa, a commercial-free station that has been broadcasting "the most beautiful" contemporary Arabic and Western pop tunes across the Middle East, 24 hours a day, seven days a week since March 2002. And Arab youth from Beirut to Baghdad are tuning in to hear Jennifer Lopez played back-to-back with Egyptian pop-star Hakim.

The remarkably popular Radio Sawa, which replaced Voice of America's Arabic service, comes courtesy of the U.S. International Broadcasting Bureau, operated and funded by the U.S. government's Broadcasting Board of Governors. The broadcasts are the latest U.S. strategy to counter anti-American sentiment in the Arab world by communicating directly in Arabic with Arab youth-targeting listeners under 30, who comprise more than 60 percent of the region's population. The mission took on new urgency following the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, as U.S. Cabinet officials, led by Secretary of State Colin Powell, spoke of the need for greater "public diplomacy."

Young and middle-class, Radwa Mohie would seem to fit Radio Sawa's target market to a tee. A 16-year-old high school student from a suburb of Cairo, Mohie likes the idea of a 24-hour Western-Arabic music station, but she hasn't been terribly impressed with what she's heard. "They should have newer songs, and the public service announcements do sound a bit silly," she remarks, adding that the BBC's Top 20 already offers current Western music hits. Mohie does approve of the style and variety of news, but doesn't think short newscasts will significantly alter the perception of Arab youth listening to a pop music station.

(SNIP)

Enter Radio Sawa, the American thoroughbred in the race for Arab opinion. Market research-driven and custom-tailored to the tastes of regional audiences, the station will eventually broadcast in five programming streams in different Arabic dialects, directed at the Gulf, Iraq, North Africa, Egypt, Sudan, and the Levant (Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, and Israel-Palestine). For the moment, though, the station is operating only an Iraq and a pan-Arab stream.

Joan Mower, communications coordinator at the International Broadcasting Bureau, flatly says of Radio Sawa: "We are not a propaganda arm." This despite the fact that it is generously funded by the U.S. government to the tune of US$35 million for fiscal year 2002, in addition to US$16.4 million for the cost of installing transmitters. Nevertheless, Mower insists, "We are not in the business of making people like us. We are the business of making sure people have enough information to form their own opinions."

"The news is very short, very simple, very headline. No analysis, no deep coverage," observes S. A. Schleifer, distinguished lecturer and director of the Adham Center for Television Journalism at the American University in Cairo. "For a limited sector, it could be influential. It could be playing a role that could be beneficial to America."

(SNIP)

Will it work? "It works among a group that tends to be pro-American culture but might be critical of American politics or swept up by knee-jerk anti-Americanism. It is certainly not going to work for people who are offended by American policy and politics, including American mass culture," Schleifer concludes. "Within the constituency of middle- and upper-class Arabs, it will probably be effective. Among lower class Arabs, who tend to be sensitive to appeals of Islamic fundamentalism, it won't be effective."

(SNIP)

Radio Sawa's studios are in Washington, D.C., with another broadcast center to open in Dubai's Media City. The station is found on FM and medium wave frequencies across the Middle East: Jordan, 98.1 FM; Kuwait, 95.7 FM; Dubai, 90.5 FM; Abu Dhabi, 98.7 FM; Qatar, 92.6 FM; Egypt, Levant and Eastern Mediterranean, 981 MW and 1260 MW; Iraq and the Gulf, 1548 MW. Radio Sawa is also available on via Nilesat, Arabsat, the Eutelsat Hotbird, and on the Web in streaming audio at www.radiosawa.com.

Link to translated transcript of a recent Radio Sawa newscast about Iraq. http://worldpress.org/Mideast/740.cfm

2//The Straits Times Updated Sept 29 11.02 pm (Singapore time)
http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/

ASIANS DOUBTFUL OF CASE FOR IRAQ WAR
By Shefali Rekhi

Asians are unconvinced by the evidence released so far by United States and British leaders that there is a case for war against Iraq, according to the latest Straits Times AsiaPoll.

They remain sceptical despite the 50-page dossier released by British Prime Minister Tony Blair last week, as well as recent US accusations that Iraq has links with the Al-Qaeda terrorist network.

They also say that they will not back a US attack on Iraq if the Americans make their move without a United Nations mandate.

Among the key findings of the AsiaPoll, conducted last week:

An overwhelming 85 per cent are opposed to military action against Iraq without a UN mandate. As many as 91 out of 97 respondents said they wanted the US to wait for a UN mandate, before striking Baghdad.

Over 80 per cent wanted more convincing evidence against Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

But the opposition to the war falls significantly if Iraq refuses a return of UN weapons inspectors. While 85 per cent oppose an attack currently, only 36 per cent would object to a military strike if Iraq blocks weapons inspections.

(MORE)

3//F.A.Z. Weekly (Frankfurter Allgemeine) Sep. 27, 2002
http://www.faz.com/IN/INtemplates/eFAZ/docmain.asp?rub={B1311FCC-FBFB-11D2-B228-00105A9CAF88}&doc={6F07C650-1568-4F3B-9EF9-98A6E795EF1B}

GREENS SET FOR BIGGER THINGS
Junior coalition partner gains more influence after strong election showing

By Edward Roby and Michael Gavin

Environmental issues and the abolition of the draft appear likely to move closer to the top of the German government's agenda as the Greens, having saved Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's government, prepare to assume new clout in the cabinet. What impact the bigger role for the formerly pacifist party will have on foreign policy remained less clear. The Greens' lead candidate, Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, is a committed interventionist and said on Thursday that he would fly to Washington "at the earliest possible opportunity" to begin repairing a rift over Schröder's campaign-trail vow that Germany would not participate in any military attack on Iraq.

The Greens, whose stronger-than-expected showing in Sunday's national election enabled the "Red-Green" coalition to win another term despite the heavy losses suffered by Schröder's Social Democratic Party (SPD), made clear that they wanted a fourth seat in the new cabinet. And the SPD's new parliamentary leader, Franz Müntefering, acknowledged that the junior coalition partner was likely to get its way.

The most likely reward for the Greens' success, sources close to both governing parties said, would be the post of justice minister being vacated by Herta Däubler-Gmelin, a Social Democrat who announced her resignation after reports that she had compared U.S. President George Bush's tactics to those of Adolf Hitler. Kerstin Müller, currently one of the Greens' parliamentary leaders, was a front-runner for the post, the sources said.

The Greens were also said to be angling for jurisdiction over energy policy to be transferred from the German Economics Ministry, currently in the hands of the former energy lobbyist Werner Müller, to the environment ministry, which they control. Observers said a dispute over further increases in the environmental tax on fuel, a controversial Green project to which the SPD remains cool, could lead to a showdown in the coming months.

(SNIP)

Although Schröder's most daunting problem in his second four-year term remains the becalmed German economy and the associated bane of mass unemployment, his most immediate concern will be to repair the foreign policy rift with the United States. As an initial conciliatory gesture, he accepted Däubler-Gmelin's resignation - some sources said he had demanded it - in the hope of defusing a major source of the current transatlantic friction. For their part, German government officials downplayed Bush's decision not to send the customary White House telegram of congratulations on Schröder's election triumph, and avoided direct comment on the cool treatment dished out by the U.S. defense secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, to German Defense Minister Peter Struck during a NATO meeting in Warsaw this week.

(MORE)

4//Asia Times Online September 27, 2002
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/DI27Ag01.html

RUSSIA, IRAN: STEPPING ON THE GAS
By Hooman Peimani
Dr Hooman Peimani works as an independent consultant with international organizations in Geneva and does research in international relations.

On September 19, Genadi Zodanov, leader of the Russian Communist Party and member of its parliamentary faction, described Iran as Russia's strategic ally and stated that Russia's parliament, the Duma, would oppose any effort to end Russia's nuclear cooperation with Iran.

In tune with his vision for a strategic alliance, Zodanov called on Russia and Iran to create a natural gas version of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), with the cooperation of the Persian Gulf gas producers to control international gas prices. The proposal reflects a growing interest among Russian political and business leaders in further expanding ties with Iran for strategic reasons as American political and military pressure on Russia is increasing.

Given the American policy of isolating Iran, any growth in the already extensive Russian-Iranian relations will help worsen conflicts between Russia and the United States on many issues of importance to both, including the export of Caspian oil and gas.

(SNIP)

As Russia and Iran respectively own the world's first and second largest natural gas reserves, it simply makes sense for them to form an organization of gas exporting countries with the Persian Gulf countries possessing significant gas reserves. Qatar, especially, with the world's third largest gas reserves, is a natural membership candidate.

Those three countries - Russia, Iran and Qatar - possess about half the proven global natural gas reserves. By coordinating their strategies within a gas-exporting organization, they could surely have a major impact on international gas markets. Among other things, they could easily impose rules and regulations on gas production, export and prices to end or, at least, minimize the current fierce rivalry among a growing number of gas exporters.

By cooperating with Iran on non-military nuclear projects and exploring an alliance on natural gas, Russia seems intent on finding and exploiting the pressure points in its relationship with the US. That relationship has experienced tensions because of a growing conflict of interest between the two sides. In particular, various events over the past few months have revealed a split between Russia and the United States after a relatively long period of stable relations in the post-Soviet era. Briefly, they included the growing American military and political presence in Russia's vicinity and the Russians' bid to expand their economic ties with the axis of evil members, Iran, Iraq and North Korea.

Russia's conflict with the United States over its ties with those countries and over the American policy towards them, especially towards Iraq, have both demonstrated and further contributed to a schism in Russian-American relations. However, other rising issues, such as the export of Caspian oil, will certainly add fuel to their conflicts. After over eight years of delay, the construction of the Baku-Tiblisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline began in mid September to create yet another source of conflict.

(SNIP)

Being constructed by Western oil companies with clear anti-Iranian and anti-Russian objectives, there is no doubt that its completion will worsen the existing sentiment of mistrust and suspicion towards the United States, the main promoter of the pipeline, in both Russia and Iran. The American oil companies will be the pipeline's major beneficiaries, if its construction continues as planned and if it becomes fully operational in 2004.

Zodanov's hope for a Russian-Iranian-led natural gas equivalent of OPEC may well come true in the near future, for its tempting merits. Apart from its economic benefits, such an organization will certainly increase the regional and international status of the two dissatisfied regional powers as many parameters, including low cost and environmental considerations, are contributing to a growing global demand for natural gas.

Needless to say, a richer and more influential Russia will be more assertive in pursuing its national interests, which will ensure collisions with the United States over their conflicting interests. However, even if this scenario does not materialize, there is no doubt that the Duma-backed growing Russian-Iranian relations, especially in the non-military nuclear field, will guarantee further tensions and conflicts in Russian-American relations.

Such uneasy relations will likely make the Russians more prone to challenge the Americans over issues of strategic importance. That will make the Baku-Tiblisi-Ceyhan pipeline a source of conflict, given its built-in American objective of denying Russia and Iran economic gains and political influence in the Caspian region to which they belong.

5//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting 27 September 2002
http://www.stratfor.com/fib/topStory_view.php?ID=206470

WASHINGTON'S DISTRACTION OPENING DOOR FOR CHINA IN INDONESIA

Summary

China and Indonesia have stepped up economic and military ties in recent months. Despite Indonesia's historical distrust of Chinese regional ambitions, Jakarta is rethinking its relations in order to gain economic, political and security leverage. Washington's preoccupation with Iraq and the anti-terrorism war appear to have offered Beijing a unique strategic opportunity.

Analysis

Beijing and Jakarta inked a contract Sept. 26 to transport liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Tangguh field in Indonesia's West Papua province to China's Fujian province. The deal, signed during the first Indonesia-China Energy Forum in Bali, is valued by Jakarta at $8.5 billion. The two countries also signed at least six other memoranda of understanding covering hundreds of millions of dollars in oil, mining and power-sector deals.

Beyond the energy sector, Indonesia and Beijing also are trying to expand political and military ties. In the past month, Li Peng, chairman of China's National People's Congress, and Defense Minister Chi Haotian both have visited Jakarta. During Chi's visit, the two nations began discussions about possible Chinese arms sales to Indonesia, and Indonesian officials welcomed the idea as a way to diversify their suppliers and reduce the problems caused by international sanctions.

(SNIP)

Ironically, U.S. involvement in Asia, which contributed to the tensions between China and Indonesia, now may be facilitating Beijing's strategic gains. With Washington placing the "China threat" on the back burner as it pursues the war against terrorism and prepares to confront Iraq, Beijing has more room to maneuver in East Asia. And the perceived invasiveness of the U.S. anti-terrorism campaign is driving some Asian nations, like Indonesia, to seek alternatives to Washington.

(SNIP)

But it has become apparent to Jakarta that Washington, despite looking for allies in the war against terrorism, remains unsure of Indonesia's military or leadership and is doing little to encourage U.S. businesses to move back to the country. U.S. Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce even said recently that U.S. businesses should refrain from new investments in Indonesia until after the country's investment and security climates improve.

The U.S. hunt for al Qaeda and related groups also has proven a divisive issue inside Indonesia, where political and religious factions continue to jockey for power and popular support. It seems that the harder Washington or Indonesia's neighbors push for Jakarta to crack down on alleged militants and terrorists, the more obstinate the country's leaders become.

(SNIP)

Beijing is exploiting the Indonesian military's frustration with the continuing U.S. arms embargo, and Washington's ongoing pressure on the Indonesian government, to finally crack open the door to Southeast Asia's most populous nation. Indonesia's strategic value is obvious, as the country lies along the key shipping routes between the Pacific and Indian oceans.

China also is helped by the fact that after anxiously confronting the spread of Asian communism for years, Washington is focusing nearly all its available resources on fighting terrorism and preparing for action in Iraq. China, the key focus of U.S. strategic planners just 18 months ago, now sits on the sidelines, with only the occasional noise from the intelligence community about the fact that the long-term strategic challenge of China remains unchanged.

Even more than its lack of attention to China, Washington's own anti-terrorism war also is opening new doors for Beijing even as it closes others. China has been all but shut out of Central Asia over the past year, but it is now expanding its influence in Southeast Asia -- and a stronger and broader relationship with Indonesia would mark a major strategic victory for Beijing.

* * *

© 2002, Gloria R. Lalumia
insight@zianet.com

Updated listings of Radio for Progressives on the internet at http://www.zianet.com/insightanalytical

* * *