World Media Watch for September 27, 2002

BUZZFLASH NOTE: Once again, these are the views and perspectives of the individual papers, not of BuzzFlash or Gloria. They offer BuzzFlash readers a way of reading what other nations are saying about the crisis, whether we like it or not. We repeat: This is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

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1//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting, USA--IRAQI OVERTHROW OF HUSSEIN ATTRACTIVE TO U.S., BUT UNREALISTIC (Washington is facing a dilemma about whether to depend on factions of the Iraqi army to rise up and overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. In the end the United States will launch a conventional war while using Iraqi opposition members as an auxiliary force, which likely will cause Iraqi citizens to rally around Hussein in defending their country from invasion....Even if the Bush administration manages to get all disunited anti-Hussein opposition groups to act at the same time, their forces would not be strong enough to defeat Iraq's military machine. But even if a military coup against Hussein were to succeed, this most likely would force an ethnic civil war in the country.)

2//The Times, UK--AFTER SADDAM, AMERICA'S GREATEST CHALLENGE WILL BE TO UNITE IRAQ (THE more that becomes known of the US Administration's plans for Iraq after the fall of President Saddam Hussein, the more breathtaking its ambitions appear. Condoleezza Rice, the National Security Adviser, now insists that once the dictatorship is toppled, the US is prepared to spend considerable time and money rebuilding Iraq as a unified and democratic state...Troops probably will have to cope with the effects of hatreds bottled up for decades. The violence associated with politics in Iraq was not invented by Saddam. It has been endemic since the creation of the state...)

3//TurkishPress.com, USA --PRESS SCAN (Brief news items about Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds from The Anadolu Agency, Ankara, Turkey.)

4//The Daily Star, Lebanon--OPINION: TURKEY AT THE CROSSROADS: WHICH WAY WILL IT GO? (The decision to ban popular former Istanbul Mayor Recep Tayyip Erdogan from upcoming parliamentary elections threatens to unravel a wide-ranging reform process that stands on the verge of finally starting to pay tangible dividends...Erdogan is the country's most popular politician: If elections were held today, his Justice and Development Party would easily win the most seats in Parliament and presumably be asked to form a government. The hitch is that Erdogan's roots are in Islamist circles... It does not matter whether or not the panel acted properly or not, only that large numbers of people ­ especially but not exclusively among Erdogan's supporters ­ assume that some form of funny business took place, that the law was manipulated in order to protect the status quo.)

5//Interfax News Agency, Russia--OVER HALF OF UKRAINIANS READY TO LIVE IN TOTALITARIAN STATE WITH HIGH LIVING STANDARDS (Almost half of those polled (48.5%) said they do not believe active involvement in social life might change anything in Ukraine. Only 4.7% said are involved in social life. Among those who do not take part in social life, 53% said they "do not need it." This need might emerge "only if their life or that of their relatives is in danger." Involvement in social life is understood by the respondents primarily as the ability to "influence the authorities." "This is exactly what they lack now," the expert said.)

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1//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting 25 September 2002
http://www.stratfor.com/fib/topStory_view.php?ID=206406

IRAQI OVERTHROW OF HUSSEIN ATTRACTIVE TO U.S., BUT UNREALISTIC

Summary

Washington is facing a dilemma about whether to depend on factions of the Iraqi army to rise up and overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. In the end the United States will launch a conventional war while using Iraqi opposition members as an auxiliary force, which likely will cause Iraqi citizens to rally around Hussein in defending their country from invasion.

Analysis

Former Iraqi Gen. Nizar al-Khazraji, the chief of staff in Baghdad during the Persian Gulf War and now in exile in Denmark, recently warned that a U.S.-led invasion of Iraq would spell a "very dark future for all," while saying that the Iraqi army is the best hope for bringing down Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, the BBC reports.

Washington would prefer for both military and political reasons that the Iraqis themselves overthrow Hussein. But, unsure about the success and consequences of such a scenario, the Bush administration instead will proceed with a conventional war-fighting strategy. Iraq's armed opposition will be used as an auxiliary force, while the possibility that the country's army will topple Hussein during the war will remain the best, but still uncertain, hope to finish the battle quickly.

(SNIP)

However, the Bush administration is not likely to give the Iraqi opposition a chance. The likelihood of a successful revolt by Iraqi exiles and soldiers without the direct support of U.S. forces is low. Al-Khazraji volunteered to lead a rebel army into the country consisting of a couple of thousand or so former Iraqi officers who defected abroad and who would command several thousand Sunni Iraqi emigrants -- in the best-case scenario.

Iraqi Kurd and Shiite populations both oppose the Sunni-minority government Hussein represents, but this long has been the case, and Hussein is still in power. They are unlikely to join the ranks of an opposition army. Moreover, Kurds accuse al-Khazraji and virtually all other Iraqi officers, be they in exile or still in the country, of war crimes committed against them for decades. So al-Khazraji would have to rely only on Iraqi Sunni emigrants.

This would leave him with a force not nearly big enough to defeat the Iraqi army. The likelihood of mass desertions from the army once the general's army crosses the border is extremely low, while the probability that just one brigade of Iraqi Republican Guard Corps will crash the armed opposition within days is very high.

A rebellion against Hussein by active-duty officers is the best hope for al-Khazraji and Washington. While in exile Al-Khazraji preserved ideal links with some current Iraqi commanders who could rebel either on their own or in conjunction with the opposition army as it makes a thrust from the borders. However, the total control that Hussein and his security apparatus exercise over the armed forces drastically decreases the chances of successfully organizing an armed coup.

Furthermore, Hussein has replaced the army's senior- and middle-officer corps several times since al-Khazraji emigrated. Whatever ties he had most likely are broken, and there are few that remain who wish to risk their lives for such a precarious plan.

Washington also must think about the consequences of this option. Even if the Bush administration manages to get all disunited anti-Hussein opposition groups to act at the same time, their forces would not be strong enough to defeat Iraq's military machine. But even if a military coup against Hussein were to succeed, this most likely would force an ethnic civil war in the country.

Kurds would fight for their independence and never bow to a new Sunni government in Baghdad, especially if there are no U.S. forces supporting the new regime. The Shiites, Iraq's religious majority, also would secede and probably start a war for control of all Arab-populated areas of Iraq.

So, in order to secure the complete success of its Iraq plans, the United States is likely to go ahead with its own massive attack while also using Iraqi armed opposition forces.

(SNIP)

All of this suggests that there is no easy option available for the United States. There will be mass desertions by the Iraqis, but it is unrealistic to hope that the whole Iraqi army or the 29-million-strong population will switch sides and give American forces the kind of welcome they received in Paris in 1944. This realization is probably the most serious reason why preparations for this war by both the Bush administration and the Pentagon are taking so much time and effort and so many turns.


2//The Times September 26, 2002
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-427274,00.html

AFTER SADDAM, AMERICA'S GREATEST CHALLENGE WILL BE TO UNITE IRAQ
Analysis by Roger Matthews

THE more that becomes known of the US Administration's plans for Iraq after the fall of President Saddam Hussein, the more breathtaking its ambitions appear. Condoleezza Rice, the National Security Adviser, now insists that once the dictatorship is toppled, the US is prepared to spend considerable time and money rebuilding Iraq as a unified and democratic state.

The only other foreign power to have tried anything similar in Iraq was Britain after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire at the end of the First World War. King Faisal I, drafted in from what is now Saudi Arabia by Winston Churchill, who was then Colonial Secretary, later memorably described his subjects as "unimaginable masses of human beings, devoid of any patriotic idea, imbued with religious traditions and absurdities, and prone to anarchy".

In the 44 years since the Hashemite monarchy was overthrown by the army, democracy has not been an issue in Iraq and a unified state has been sustained only by persistent repression. Few people ever owed their first loyalty to the State. Greater commitments are made to a tribe, a religion or an ethnic group, and, increasingly, since the advent of Saddam, to an individual. During the past two decades, obeisance to the cult of personality has become virtually the only permitted political activity. Occasional meetings of the National Assembly are staged to show support for the leader. The Baath Party, the dominant political organisation, retains little ideological content and discourages debate. Survival or advancement depends on perceived loyalty to the person of Saddam, stretching from his inner circle to the most humble political minder resident on every Baghdad street.

(SNIP)

Democracy, as distinct from a change of regime, would pose a particular danger for the minority Sunni Muslim community, some 20 per cent of the population and resident mainly in the area around Baghdad and Tikrit, Saddam's home region. The Sunnis, urban and often better educated, have monopolised power since independence, reducing the majority Shia to a minor role and blocking repeated attempts by the Kurdish population to achieve greater autonomy.

(SNIP)

The desire of the Kurds in the north and the Shia in the south to escape the clutches of Baghdad is also more than a domestic issue. Their ambitions have provided regular opportunities for neighbouring countries, especially Iran, to put pressure on Baghdad...Iran might relish democratic elections in Iraq if they brought Shias into the central government.

Dr. Rice's liberating armies, therefore, may find that the response to their message of unity and democracy is far from uniform. It may be that should US Marines storm ashore in the southern port of Basra, there will be dancing in the streets, as predicted by Dick Cheney, the US Vice-President. But simultaneously other troops may have to fight street by street in parts of Baghdad or Tikrit. The fall of the regime may also not signal the end of the conflict.

Troops probably will have to cope with the effects of hatreds bottled up for decades. The violence associated with politics in Iraq was not invented by Saddam. It has been endemic since the creation of the state...

(SNIP)

Dr. Rice sees hopes for democracy elsewhere in the region, detecting positive stirrings in the tiny states of Bahrain and Qatar, even perhaps in Jordan, where the last Hashemite monarchy still rules. Success in Iraq would be another matter. For other Arab governments, democracy in Iraq could be a weapon of mass destruction far more potent than anything possessed by Saddam.

3//TurkishPress.com Thursday, September 26, 2002 10:55:21 AM
http://www.turkishpress.com/turkishpress/news.asp?ID=7149

PRESS SCAN (Brief news items from The Anadolu Agency, Ankara, Turkey)

Milliyet (Liberal)
MILLIYET IN NORTHERN IRAQ

Kurds in Northern Iraq say that ''we are not an independent state.'' But there is a serious development process in the region. Policemen, instead of armed militia forces ensure the order. There are two GSM companies and roads, bridges, five-star hotels are being constructed in the region. Even they have a constitution. The central bank which was also founded controls the banks. The Kurdish leader Barzani received the Milliyet journalist, told him that they would not found an independent state and he invited Turkish officials to Northern Iraq.

Cumhuriyet (Left)
ECEVIT SAYS TURKEY CAN'T STAY INDIFFERENT TO NORTHERN IRAQ

Patriotic Union for Kurdistan (PUK) and Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) agreed on the draft constitution of namely ''Iraqi Federal Republic.'' Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit said that ''even if they say they are opposed to the creation of a Kurdish state, in practice such a state is being formed. If this becomes official, there will be serious problems. If very negative developments occur, we will take precautions. We won't stand with our hands and arms tied.''

4//The Daily Star Beirut, Thursday, September 26, 2002. Updated 08:30 AM +2GMT
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/opinion/26_09_02_a.htm

OPINION: TURKEY AT THE CROSSROADS: WHICH WAY WILL IT GO?

Turkey has made tremendous strides toward retooling itself for the post-Cold War era, but now the biggest threat to all of its progress comes not just from within the country but from the bosom of the state itself. The decision to ban popular former Istanbul Mayor Recep Tayyip Erdogan from upcoming parliamentary elections threatens to unravel a wide-ranging reform process that stands on the verge of finally starting to pay tangible dividends. Turkey's political and military establishments are very close to making their own worst fears come true by undermining the credibility of the very secular system whose protection and perpetuity have been their obsession for decades.

Erdogan is the country's most popular politician: If elections were held today, his Justice and Development Party would easily win the most seats in Parliament and presumably be asked to form a government. The hitch is that Erdogan's roots are in Islamist circles, and the generals so often maligned for riding herd on Turkey's politicians have no confidence in his claims to be a moderate. As a result, the decision of the country's highest election board to bar him from polls scheduled for Nov. 3 smacks of bias and/or behind-the-scenes pressure. It does not matter whether or not the panel acted properly or not, only that large numbers of people ­ especially but not exclusively among Erdogan's supporters ­ assume that some form of funny business took place, that the law was manipulated in order to protect the status quo.

This perception stems from both the nature of the misstep for which Erdogan has been blackballed and the fact that he has already been punished for it: In 1999, Erdogan served four months in prison for publicly reciting a poem that was judged to have incited religious hatred. In addition, he is not a fringe figure against whom the ruling elite has no reason to intrigue but rather an immensely popular one with the capacity to break their stranglehold on power.

(MORE)

5//Interfax News Agency 26.09.2002 16:55:01
http://www.interfax.ru/show_one_news.html?
lang=EN&tz=0&tz_format=MSK&id_news=5596760

OVER HALF OF UKRAINIANS READY TO LIVE IN TOTALITARIAN STATE WITH HIGH LIVING STANDARDS

KYIV. Sept 26 (Interfax-Ukraine) - According to sociologists, 57% of Ukrainians are ready to live in a totalitarian state with high living standards, compared with only 14.8% of those who favor a democratic state with lower living standards, Andrei Bichenko, director of the Razumkov center's sociological department, has said.

In Kyiv on Thursday, he spoke at a round table titled: "The Role of Think-Tanks in Public Policy Formation." He referred to the results of his center's poll in August 2002.

Bichenko specified that the poll was conducted among 2,040 respondents. The sampling error is 2.5%.

According to the poll, only 7.4% of respondents said they live comfortably. Bichenko said they were mainly guided by financial welfare.

Almost half of those polled (48.5%) said they do not believe active involvement in social life might change anything in Ukraine. Only 4.7% said are involved in social life. Among those who do not take part in social life, 53% said they "do not need it." This need might emerge "only if their life or that of their relatives is in danger."

Involvement in social life is understood by the respondents primarily as the ability to "influence the authorities." "This is exactly what they lack now," the expert said.

(MORE)

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NEW! SPECIAL REPORT: HIGH NOON AT THE HOLIDAY INN WITH AL GORE

Radiotelevision de Rio Bravo from Cd. Juarez, Chihuahua; the Las Cruces High School mariachi band; cheerleaders; union leaders; a college student begging for a ticket...it could only be a Democratic get-out-the vote rally featuring Al Gore, hot on the heels of his momentous San Francisco speech on Monday, September 23 and a rally in Santa Fe, New Mexico on Tuesday.

(MORE)

http://www.zianet.com/insightanalytical/925Rally.htm (scroll to see autograph)

or http://www.buzzflash.com/contributors/2002/09/27_Gore.html

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© 2002, Gloria R. Lalumia
insight@zianet.com

Updated listings of Radio for Progressives on the internet at http://www.zianet.com/insightanalytical

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