World Media Watch for September 23, 2002

BUZZFLASH NOTE: Once again, these are the views and perspectives of the individual papers, not of BuzzFlash or Gloria. They offer BuzzFlash readers a way of reading what other nations are saying about the crisis, whether we like it or not. We repeat: This is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

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1//The Sydney Morning Herald, Australia--REPRESSION REIGNS UNDER GUISE OF COMBATING MILITANTS (But the crackdown on dissent in Kyrgyzstan, including on members of the broader non-Islamic opposition, is helping to fuel opposition to the presence of the US, Australian and other foreign military forces.)

2//The Dawn, Pakistan--PAKISTAN AN 'EXPLOSIVE KALEIDOSCOPE' - FRENCH TV (With regards to the excessive presence, physical and moral, of the United States in Pakistani life, Laroche-Joubert's film quotes Ahmed Rasheed, described as "the best-known journalist in Pakistan," as saying that "the Americans appear to want to support the continuation of the rule of the military, although in doing so they go against the will of the Pakistani population which evidently desires a return to democracy, in any case a better sharing of power between the military and the political parties - something which Musharraf obviously isn't ready to give them.")

3//BBC News World Edition, UK--COLOMBIA CREATES SECURITY ZONES (The creation of the Rehabilitation and Consolidation Zones is part of the ongoing state of emergency declared last month by hardline President Alvaro Uribe. It will allow the armed forces to impose curfews, restrict civilian movement, arrest suspects without a warrant and search vehicles and houses without any kind of legal limitation...The BBC's Jeremy McDermott in Colombia says the move comes as Mr Uribe heads to Washington on Monday to meet President George W Bush and to secure more US aid in Colombia's war on terror.)

4//Far Eastern Economic Review, Hong Kong--MOVING TARGET (American plans to blacklist Jemaah Islamiah, a home-grown Indonesian-based group linked to Osama bin Laden's global terrorist network, expose the frustration of the United States in prosecuting its war on terror in Southeast Asia. An expanding list of targeted terrorist organizations may look good, analysts say, but aiming at a group as amorphous and ill-defined as Jemaah Islamiah risks hitting unintended targets and fuelling anti-American feeling in the region...So why proscribe it? To give the impression that the U.S. is making progress against Al Qaeda, when in fact the "post-September 11 investigative action has slowed down in Southeast Asia," Williams says.)

Additional story of interest from the Far Eastern Economic Review:

Cover Story: BUY AMERICAN OR ELSE: HOW WASHINGTON IS PRESSING ASIA TO PROCURE U.S. WEAPONS

5//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting, USA--WASHINGTON STRANGELY OVERT ABOUT COVERT WAR (While a U.S. shift to high-intensity global covert operations was expected, Washington's decision to broadcast the plan seems truly bizarre. However, when one reads between the lines, there may be some rational explanation for Washington's overt covert war... All of this is well and good, but transferring command of much of the war on al Qaeda to SOCOM raises one final set of questions. Will SOCOM begin tasking civilian agencies, such as the CIA or FBI? Will it be able to draw on additional conventional forces, perhaps to act as sweeping or screening agents for its operations? And what about operations in the Northern Command; will SOCOM run any operations in the United States until the Department of Homeland Security is up and running? Will it then answer to Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge, or vice versa?)

6//The Japan Times, Japan--THE FUTURE OF THE U.S. ECONOMY: TASKS FOR TOP NATIONS AND THE IMF (The comparison shows that the U.S. bubble is following a pattern similar to the Japanese bubble. There are always, of course, changes in the U.S. and Japanese economies, and a chart alone cannot indicate how things will develop. But stock market dealers do use such comparisons as a reference. If the Japanese pattern is to be followed, the possibility of U.S. share prices falling 10 percent further from current levels cannot be ruled out.)

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1//The Sydney Morning Herald September 23 http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/09/22/1032055036013.html

REPRESSION REIGNS UNDER GUISE OF COMBATING MILITANTS

Australia is implicated in propping up a corrupt and oppressive Central Asian regime, writes Craig Skehan.

(SNIP)

Long ago Josef Stalin imposed murderous political repression on the central Asian republics, and now it is making a comeback.

The authoritarian government of President Askar Akayev has begun what international human rights groups say is a savage assault on basic rights.

(SNIP)

And Australia, in a modest way, has entered the complex local political matrix by joining the United States-led international force stationed at Manas airfield on the edge of Bishkek.

Two RAAF 707s, used to refuel coalition war planes over Afghanistan to the south, are part of Australia's contribution to stemming the spread of militant Islam in the region.

But this also leaves Australia open to charges that it is helping Washington to prop up a corrupt and increasingly oppressive regime.

Mr Akayev granted permission for the international force to be based in his country as a hoped-for insurance policy against externally backed internal revolt.

(SNIP)

Although Russia still has a dominant influence here, it gave its approval for the US to set up military bases in the region, including Kyrgyzstan, to conduct the war in Afghanistan.

But the crackdown on dissent in Kyrgyzstan, including on members of the broader non-Islamic opposition, is helping to fuel opposition to the presence of the US, Australian and other foreign military forces.

(MORE)

2//The Dawn 22 September 2002 Sunday 14 Rajab 1423
http://www.dawn.com/2002/09/22/top11.htm

PAKISTAN AN 'EXPLOSIVE KALEIDOSCOPE' - FRENCH TV
By Paul Michaud

PARIS, Sept 21: In a documentary to be broadcast tomorrow (i.e.,Sunday) on French television, Pakistan is referred to as an "explosive kaleidoscope ," a quintessentially complex country which is perpetually on the verge of a social explosion, where the head of state, General Musharraf, is quoted as saying he "yearns for the day when he will be able to leave power and go play golf."

The film, by veteran French newswoman Martine Laroche- Joubert, is based on a recent three-week trip to Pakistan, during which she says she was able to visit all parts of the country, from Karachi - characterized as "one of the most dangerous cities in the world" - to Lahore, by way of the Karakorum Highway to Kashmir and tribal zones near the Afghan border, to Peshawar, and the estate of the Bhutto family said to be "a symbol of the decadence of Pakistani life."

(SNIP)

"There's everything in this country," she continues. "There are those who were educated in the best British schools, there are the fundamentalists and other extremists, and then there are those Muslims who practice a tolerant brand of Islam. There's also the FBI, the secret services, the members of Al Qaeda."

(SNIP)

With regards to the excessive presence, physical and moral, of the United States in Pakistani life, Laroche-Joubert's film quotes Ahmed Rasheed, described as "the best-known journalist in Pakistan," as saying that "the Americans appear to want to support the continuation of the rule of the military, although in doing so they go against the will of the Pakistani population which evidently desires a return to democracy, in any case a better sharing of power between the military and the political parties - something which Musharraf obviously isn't ready to give them."

Another principal figure of the documentary, Nusrat Jamil, described as an intellectual and opposition leader who is also "a militant for a better social political development of the country," says, for his part, that "luckily, in the end, there are some Pakistanis who reflect and who think."

3//BBC News World Edition Sunday, 22 September, 2002, 02:20 GMT 03:20 UK
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/2273680.stm

COLOMBIA CREATES SECURITY ZONES

The Colombian Government has given the military sweeping powers to fight armed groups by establishing two security zones.

The creation of the Rehabilitation and Consolidation Zones is part of the ongoing state of emergency declared last month by hardline President Alvaro Uribe.

It will allow the armed forces to impose curfews, restrict civilian movement, arrest suspects without a warrant and search vehicles and houses without any kind of legal limitation.

(SNIP)

The BBC's Jeremy McDermott in Colombia says the move comes as Mr Uribe heads to Washington on Monday to meet President George W Bush and to secure more US aid in Colombia's war on terror.

Massive offensives

The two zones cover areas in three north-eastern provinces of Arauca, Sucre and Bolivar.

The government has argued that civil rights must be restricted in order to restore order and put an end to almost daily killings and kidnappings by the rebels and paramilitaries.

"The goal is to achieve greater control over citizens and, consequently, avoid infiltration by armed groups... [which] have been staging tremendous acts of terror," Colombian Defence Minister Marta Lucia Ramirez said.

The creation of the zones comes as the Colombian army has launched massive offensives against the armed groups and is seeking additional military aid from the US.

US support

The US has said it will further help Colombia, which - having already received more than $1 billion - is the third-largest recipient of American military aid in the world after Israel and Egypt.

But the US says Colombia first had to show the will to help itself, with more defence spending and security measures.

Our correspondent says that Mr Uribe has certainly done that, raising taxes, instituting a civilian spy network and arming peasants.

(SNIP)

Mr Uribe wants more military help in the form of training, hardware and intelligence.

Our correspondent says that Colombia is moving onto a war footing, and with increasingly tough talk coming from Washington, it seems certain that the US will increase its military aid.

4//Far Eastern Economic Review (Dow Jones Publication) Issue cover-dated September 26, 2002
http://www.feer.com/articles/2002/0209_26/p019region.html

MOVING TARGET
By Barry Wain/SINGAPORE

U.S. plans to blacklist an Indonesian-based Muslim group risks alienating others

AMERICAN PLANS to blacklist Jemaah Islamiah, a home-grown Indonesian-based group linked to Osama bin Laden's global terrorist network, expose the frustration of the United States in prosecuting its war on terror in Southeast Asia. An expanding list of targeted terrorist organizations may look good, analysts say, but aiming at a group as amorphous and ill-defined as Jemaah Islamiah risks hitting unintended targets and fuelling anti-American feeling in the region.

(SNIP)

But nailing the nebulous group is proving to be like grasping shadows. It is alleged to be headed by Indonesian Muslim cleric Abu Bakar Bashir, but he denies it. The group has no formal structure and seems to change its identity across borders. The Malaysian government, for example, calls it a "second wing" of the Malaysian Mujahideen Movement, or KMM, which officials describe as a clandestine group trying to topple the government. Jemaah Islamiah, which means Islamic community, also "is a very common term and title in Indonesia for all manner of Muslim community groups," notes Greg Fealy, a specialist on Indonesian Islam at the Australian National University. If it were blacklisted, he says, "it would require very tight definition to avoid snaring all sorts of innocuous religious groups." Otherwise it "would cause cases of mistaken identity and ill feeling," says Clive Williams, who directs a programme studying terrorism at the same university.

AN ILLUSION OF PROGRESS

So why proscribe it? To give the impression that the U.S. is making progress against Al Qaeda, when in fact the "post-September 11 investigative action has slowed down in Southeast Asia," Williams says. America's list of foreign terrorist organizations reveals the limited headway made in the region: Until recently, the only regional group on the list was Abu Sayyaf, a small Islamic kidnap gang in the southern Philippines with tenuous links to Al Qaeda.

(MORE)

Additional article of interest from the Far Eastern Economic Review

Cover Story: BUY AMERICAN OR ELSE: HOW WASHINGTON IS PRESSING ASIA TO PROCURE U.S. WEAPONS
http://www.feer.com/articles/2002/0209_26/p014region.html

U.S. arms makers are cashing in on their country's military dominance and network of security alliances in Asia to score big contracts in what critics complain is a lop-sided competition that could lead to dependence on expensive weapons

5//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting 20 September 2002
http://www.stratfor.com/fib/topStory_view.php?ID=206327

WASHINGTON STRANGELY OVERT ABOUT COVERT WAR
Summary

In the past few days, the Pentagon has begun loudly signaling its intent to step up covert operations around the globe, even specifically identifying Yemen as a potential target. While a U.S. shift to high-intensity global covert operations was expected, Washington's decision to broadcast the plan seems truly bizarre. However, when one reads between the lines, there may be some rational explanation for Washington's overt covert war.

Analysis

The Pentagon has launched a high-profile publicity campaign touting a new phase in the war against al Qaeda, in which the Special Operations Command (SOCOM) will play a leading role. According to a front-page story in the Sept. 18 Washington Post, the Pentagon is planning to transfer control over most of the war on al Qaeda to SOCOM. Until now, SOCOM forces have answered to regional commanders in chief.

The same day, the New York Times trumpeted the "quiet" deployment of hundreds of Special Operations forces to Djibouti in preparation for attacks on militants in the region. The article singled out Yemen as a particularly likely target.

Though STRATFOR earlier this year posited the likelihood of a global covert anti-al Qaeda operation and a simultaneous attack on Iraq, dubbing it the emerging "Bush Doctrine," we did not anticipate that the massive covert war would be so ... well, overt. All this recent publicity seems to kind of miss the point of such operations.

Operationally, shifting control of anti-al Qaeda operations from regional commanders such as Central Command (CENTCOM) chief Gen. Tommy Franks will allow for a more rational and efficient employment of forces. It will allow CENTCOM to focus on waging war with Iraq and stabilizing the situation in Afghanistan while saving Special Operations forces for special operations.

As laid out in the "Bush Doctrine," the anticipated U.S. war on Iraq is likely to be shadowed by an intense global campaign of covert strikes against al Qaeda targets. The overall plan would be to avoid the situation in which an attack in one location merely scatters targeted militants to more secure areas. Simultaneous attacks on multiple fronts -- provided there are sufficient forces to maintain the pressure -- could leave al Qaeda with nowhere to run.

(SNIP)

There are two other reasons Washington may be publicizing this campaign, the first of which can be read between the lines in the Post and Times stories. Strategically, Washington would prefer not to have to launch such a campaign. It actually would prefer not to have to launch any campaign at all. Ideally, countries would do as Washington asked and clean up their own messes.

Unfortunately, this is not the reality for Washington, and part of the reason for announcing that U.S. forces are about to launch a major series of raids across the globe is to encourage countries hosting potential targets to be more forthcoming with assistance. According to government sources cited by the Post, the Pentagon announcement was coordinated with notices to U.S. diplomats to "deliver some tough messages" to countries where militants operate to cooperate in the war on al Qaeda. The additional caveat, "or be prepared for the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment to visit you in the night," was left unspoken.

The Times inadvertently hinted at another reason for all the publicity. It noted that Pentagon and military officials had cautioned that covert missions were waiting for sufficient intelligence to locate militants with confidence. This has been the core U.S. problem since going to war with al Qaeda. Washington simply lacks the intelligence necessary to carry out surgical strikes against the organization. This dilemma is in large part responsible for driving Washington to anti-state operations like the attack on Afghanistan and the planned attack on Iraq.

(SNIP)

The recent publicity may be another example of this tactic on a grander scale. By announcing the troop numbers staging in Djibouti, and the precise targeted region in Yemen, Washington may be trying to cause the militants to break cover and scatter or expose themselves with increased communications.

All of this is well and good, but transferring command of much of the war on al Qaeda to SOCOM raises one final set of questions. Will SOCOM begin tasking civilian agencies, such as the CIA or FBI? Will it be able to draw on additional conventional forces, perhaps to act as sweeping or screening agents for its operations? And what about operations in the Northern Command; will SOCOM run any operations in the United States until the Department of Homeland Security is up and running? Will it then answer to Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge, or vice versa?

6//The Japan Times Sept. 23, 2002
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/getarticle.pl5?nb20020923a2.htm

JAPANESE PERSPECTIVES
THE FUTURE OF THE U.S. ECONOMY: TASKS FOR TOP NATIONS AND THE IMF

By Teruhiko Mano
Teruhiko Mano is an adviser to Tokyo Research International Ltd.

(SNIP)

Basically, money flees from risks. Behind the stock market declines are not just economic problems, but a wide variety of risk factors that are political, military, religious and ethnic in nature. There aren't enough risk takers, however -- sometimes none at all -- to support today's share prices.

I must point out it is the United States that is leading the market slump. In a globalized economy, the problems of one economy will quickly affect those of its neighbor one after the another, just like it did in the Asian crisis in 1997. At the same time, however, national borders do exist, and the impact from the same shock will differ according to each country.

There are two major reasons I think the U.S. is leading the market slump.

One is the political factor: that the U.S. is the nation with the biggest risk of terrorism. It goes without saying that the U.S., the world's sole remaining superpower after the end of Cold War, is terrorists' biggest target.

(SNIP)

The risk of terrorism will likely increase if the U.S. continues to forge ahead with its unilateralism. Money is more sensitive to political risks than to economic ones.

The other major reason I believe the U.S. is leading the market slump is the economic factor -- the collapse of the stock market bubble.

(SNIP)

The comparison shows that the U.S. bubble is following a pattern similar to the Japanese bubble.

There are always, of course, changes in the U.S. and Japanese economies, and a chart alone cannot indicate how things will develop.

But stock market dealers do use such comparisons as a reference. If the Japanese pattern is to be followed, the possibility of U.S. share prices falling 10 percent further from current levels cannot be ruled out.

(SNIP)

The Misery Index, which combines a country's jobless rate with the inflation rate for consumer prices, shows there is a head wind at work. If we add the ratio of the fall in stock prices over the past year, something I call the New Misery Index, we get the following numbers: U.S.: 24.7, EU: 25.6, Japan: 7.1. Note that the head wind against Japan is not as strong as it is against the U.S. and Europe.

(MORE)

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© 2002, Gloria R. Lalumia
insight@zianet.com

Updated listings of Radio for Progressives on the internet at http://www.zianet.com/insightanalytical

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