World Media Watch for September 20, 2002

BUZZFLASH NOTE: Once again, these are the views and perspectives of the individual papers, not of BuzzFlash or Gloria. They offer BuzzFlash readers a way of reading what other nations are saying about the crisis, whether we like it or not. We repeat: This is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

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1//The Japan Times, Japan--OPEC LEADERS DEFY DEMANDS FOR OIL PRODUCTION INCREASE (Prior to the meeting, the 11-member cartel had been under pressure from the United States, Europe, and Japan to increase production to bring down the price of oil, which was trading at close to $27 per barrel Thursday. But several Arab nations, as well as Indonesia, Nigeria, and Venezuela, had opposed an increase. After a week of silence on the issue, Saudi Arabia, the largest and most influential member of OPEC with nearly 45 percent of OPEC's total oil production, announced Thursday it did not wish to see a boost in production for the rest of this year.)

2//The Khaleej Times, United Arab Emirates--US EXEMPTS BAHRAIN FROM ARMS CONTROL RESTRICTIONS (US President George W Bush's decision to exempt Bahrain from most US arms control restrictions took effect on Thursday as his administration pressed ahead with efforts to secure lawmakers' backing for possible military action against Iraq.)

3//The Jordan Times, Jordan--RISE OF MUBARAK'S SON GAMAL FUELS SUCCESSION TALK IN EGYPT (As political secretary, the younger Mubarak will help set the party's political agenda and review draft legislation to be submitted to parliament, according to political analyst Wahid Abdel Magid...A bachelor and the younger of Mubarak's two sons, he served as an executive for Bank of America International in London from 1988 to 1994.)

4//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong--JURASSIC PARK IN WASHINGTON (However, now any decision to attack Iraq will put the war on terrorism on hold for all intents and purposes, claims to the contrary by the Bush dinosaurs notwithstanding.)

5//The Independent, UK--ANALYSIS: EAST GERMANY'S EX-COMMUNISTS MAY HOLD THE BALANCE AS BOTH THE MAIN PARTIES AND THEIR COALITION PARTNERS STAND NECK AND NECK (After giving the Chancellor a small lead last weekend, the polls have since tightened again, suggesting that the advantages of the floods and Iraq to Mr Schröder might be waning. Now, two days before the election, the gap between the two main parties and the two likely coalition partners in all five major polls is well within the margin of error. In other words, they are so close as to be level.)

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1//The Japan Times Sept. 20, 2002
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/getarticle.pl5?nb20020920a1.htm

OPEC LEADERS DEFY DEMANDS FOR OIL PRODUCTION INCREASE

OSAKA -- OPEC oil ministers rebuffed calls from Western countries and Japan to increase oil production at their meeting here Thursday, deciding to keep its official crude oil output intact for the October-December quarter.

"There is a consensus that there is enough oil. There is no need for more than we are physically putting into the market at the moment," said Rilwanu Lukman, president of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

In the joint communique released Thursday night, OPEC noted that only moderate global economic growth rates were expected before the yearend, with only normal, seasonal growth in demand expected for the fourth quarter.

As such, the conference decided that the currently agreed to production levels would be maintained," the communique read.

There had been concern that some OPEC members had exceeded their agreed-upon quotas, and the communique called for those countries to rein in their excess production.

(SNIP)

Prior to the meeting, the 11-member cartel had been under pressure from the United States, Europe, and Japan to increase production to bring down the price of oil, which was trading at close to $27 per barrel Thursday. But several Arab nations, as well as Indonesia, Nigeria, and Venezuela, had opposed an increase.

After a week of silence on the issue, Saudi Arabia, the largest and most influential member of OPEC with nearly 45 percent of OPEC's total oil production, announced Thursday it did not wish to see a boost in production for the rest of this year.

(SNIP)

The OPEC countries are currently producing about 21.7 million barrels per day. However, pressure to raise production eased after Iraq announced it would readmit United Nations weapons inspectors, calming fears that a war would spark a sudden rise in the international demand.

"We're satisfied with OPEC's decision to maintain current production levels," said Iraq deputy oil minister Saddam Hasan. Iraq has a capacity of 3.1 million barrels per day but is producing only about 2.2 million barrels.

(SNIP)

Lukman admitted that OPEC was pumping about 1.8 million to 2 million barrels a day above the official limit of 21.7 million barrels imposed by its members.

Although there will be no production increase for the rest of 2002, Lukman said OPEC would meet again in December, in Vienna, to reassess the need for a production boost.

OPEC has pledged to increase output by 500,000 barrels daily if the price exceeds $28 per barrel for 10 straight days.

With growing concern about a U.S. attack on Iraq early next year, many in OPEC fear they will once again face oil prices of nearly $30 a barrel and Western pressure to boost production.

2//The Khaleej Times 20 September 2002. 13 Rajab, 1423.
http://www.khaleejtimes.co.ae/middleeast.htm#story3

US EXEMPTS BAHRAIN FROM ARMS CONTROL RESTRICTIONS

WASHINGTON - (AFP) US President George W Bush's decision to exempt Bahrain from most US arms control restrictions took effect on Thursday as his administration pressed ahead with efforts to secure lawmakers' backing for possible military action against Iraq.

Bush announced in March that the Gulf state, home to the US Fifth Fleet, would be designated a "major non-Nato ally," clearing the way for expanded bilateral defence and economic ties. But the implications of the decision with respect to arms and high-tech satellite technology sales came into force on Thursday with the publication in the Federal Register of an announcement formally adding Bahrain to the list of major non-Nato allies.

(SNIP)

The designation allows the emirate to buy US surplus military material on a priority status, obtain US military loans, benefit from training programmes and increased research and development cooperation, and permits US forces to stockpile war material on its territory.

Thursday's notice was published as Bush was expected to submit to Congress a proposed resolution that would authorise a possible military move against Iraq. Bahrain would be a critical site for the US military should there be conflict with Iraq.

3//The Jordan Times Thursday, September 19, 2002
http://www.jordantimes.com/Thu/news/news5.htm

RISE OF MUBARAK'S SON GAMAL FUELS SUCCESSION TALK IN EGYPT

CAIRO (AFP) - President Hosni Mubarak's son Gamal, a banker turned politician, was at the centre of speculation on Wednesday that he would one day succeed his father at Egypt's helm after rising to a key post in the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP).

Gamal, 39, symbol of a new generation in Egyptian politics, was named by his father as NDP political secretary before rousing applause at a nationally televised convention of the all-powerful party late Tuesday.

"We must give young people the opportunity to shoulder leadership responsibilities," President Mubarak, 74, told thousands of party faithful, as the cameras zoomed in on Gamal seated alongside the party old guard.

"Broadening the participation of young people in political life ... is an essential guarantee of a smooth handover of responsibility from one generation to the next," he said.

As political secretary, the younger Mubarak will help set the party's political agenda and review draft legislation to be submitted to parliament, according to political analyst Wahid Abdel Magid.

(SNIP)

Egypt's constitution would not have to be changed to allow for a civilian as president. However, since the republic was founded in 1952, all heads of state, including President Mubarak, have been military men.

"It's too early to answer this question" of succession, said Ibrahim Dessouky Abaza, an executive with the opposition Al Wafd Party. "To be sure, [Gamal's appointment] is stimulating many rumours."

Certain changes must be made first, he added. The constitution must be amended to remove socialist references, the state of emergency must be lifted and Gamal must reform a ruling party and a political system he Abaza calls "anti-democratic."

"I wish him luck" in such an enormous task, he added.

"If Gamal or someone else ... put the country on the path of democracy, he would enjoy overwhelming popularity and ... it is very probable he would become head of the country," Abaza told AFP by telephone.

(SNIP)

A bachelor and the younger of Mubarak's two sons, he served as an executive for Bank of America International in London from 1988 to 1994. He then became executive director of MedInvest Associations Ltd. in Egypt, providing financial advisory services.

President Mubarak has led Egypt ever since his predecessor Anwar Sadat was gunned down by Islamic militants in 1981.

4//Asia Times Online September 20, 2002
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/DI20Ak01.html

JURASSIC PARK IN WASHINGTON
By Ehsan Ahrari
Ehsan Ahrari, PhD, is a Norfolk, Virginia, US-based strategic analyst.

The former president of South Africa, Nelson Mandela, condemning the seemingly impending US attack on Iraq, stated that President George W Bush is listening to "dinosaurs" like Vice President Dick Cheney who do not want Bush "to belong to the modern age".

"Dinosaurian thinking" would be an apt phrase to describe the method of the Cold Warriors in the Bush administration and their unvarnished unilateral approach to determining whether the United States should leave the job of fighting terrorism unfinished and go after the Iraqi dictator. The success of a potential US military operation against Iraq is unquestionable. Prospects for peace and stability thereafter, however, are quite dim if the Bush administration ignores the need for multilateral support for invading Iraq, and fails to think through its aftermath.

Mandela is spot on when it comes to describing the role of dinosaurs in the Bush administration. Only they are responsible for taking the attention away from America's war on terrorism in Afghanistan and, instead, for their heightened, indeed voluble, insistence on toppling Saddam Hussein from power.

The debate over ousting Saddam is getting so bitter that Adam Garfinkle, editor of the conservative magazine The National Interest, lamented, "We have witnessed in recent weeks an eruption of antagonism - some of it uncharacteristically personal - between what is generally called the camp of neo-conservatives and the camp of conservative realists. Accusations of appeasement and 'irresponsibility' have been flying, the subject closest to hand being policy toward Iraq." Garfinkle describes the supporters of a Reaganite approach to foreign policy as neo-conservatives, and those supporting former president George H W Bush as realists. Fine though that distinction may be, Mandela's condemnation of neo-conservatives and hawks alike cuts to the chase by labeling them all dinosaurs.

Examining America's foreign policy from a realistic perspective, it makes sense to go after the terrorists and finish the job of eradicating terrorism worldwide. It is interesting to note, however, that even among realists, there is a group that disagrees with the proposition of wiping out all terrorism, since it becomes a goal at once too abstract and ambitious. That disagreement notwithstanding, the eradication of terrorism has many dimensions: political, economic, diplomatic and military. But that multidimensionality is remarkably absent in the United States' pursuit of its global war on terrorism. Instead, the emphasis - some say overemphasis - is on the use of military power in Afghanistan.

That emphasis, as well as the unabated penchant for unilateralism, as Michael Hirsch, writing in Foreign Affairs, points out, "has less to do with Bush's 'cowboy' mindset or US exceptionalism than with the sheer inequality of hard power between the United States and the rest of the world". Those inequalities may also be responsible for the United States' palpably half-hearted approach to nation building in Afghanistan: "Superpowers don't do windows" (ie, they don't bother with the mundane housekeeping tasks of the world) is the arrogant snarl one frequently hears from Washington.

(SNIP)

What is incredible about the growing power of the dinosaurs in Washington is that, with their insistence on attacking Iraq, the United States is facing the danger of losing its focus.

(SNIP)

However, now any decision to attack Iraq will put the war on terrorism on hold for all intents and purposes, claims to the contrary by the Bush dinosaurs notwithstanding.

(SNIP)

Strategic choices for the United States have to be examined by using hardheaded analysis of what is at stake. Multilateralism may be somewhat of a constraining option for the lone superpower, but it has served America's purpose very consistently in the past. There is no compelling reason to abandon it now merely because the dinosaurs are so bent on the eliminating Saddam at the expense of losing America's global war on terrorism.

5//The Independent 20 September 2002 02:50 BDST
http://news.independent.co.uk/europe/story.jsp?story=334869

ANALYSIS: EAST GERMANY'S EX-COMMUNISTS MAY HOLD THE BALANCE AS BOTH THE MAIN PARTIES AND THEIR COALITION PARTNERS STAND NECK AND NECK

By Mary Dejevsky in Berlin

(SNIP)

Not only are the two main parties - Mr Schröder's Social Democrats (SDP) and Mr Stoiber's centre-right CSU/CDU alliance - neck and neck, but so are the two parties that would form their natural coalition partners: the Greens and the free-market Free Democrats (FDP). This leaves the fifth party - the restyled East German communist party, which now calls itself the Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS), perhaps holding the balance.

That the next Chancellor of Germany may technically owe his victory to the former East German communists is not something that will be welcomed by either of the likely winners. But the closeness of the election reflects a succession of quite exceptional - unforeseen and unforeseeable - circumstances.

Who could have predicted, for instance, that torrential rain in central Europe would cause the former East Germany's main river system to flood so disastrously in mid-August? Who could have foreseen that President Bush's crusade against Iraq would reach its climax in early September and cause such ructions in Europe? And not even Mr Bush at his most Machiavellian could have guessed that Baghdad would appear finally to capitulate just the weekend before the German election.

Each of these totally extraneous events had an immediate impact on the German election; each changed the mood of the voters and diverted attention from the prevailing national gloom on the economy. The flood disaster gave Gerhard Schröder the chance to show himself a competent and hands-on national leader - which he did with great success, neutralising much of Mr Stoiber's efforts to campaign as the better economic manager. The themes of social and east-west solidarity helped the SDP, and the flooding - perceived as evidence of global warming - also helped the Greens.

Mr Bush's war rhetoric against Iraq gave Mr Schröder another opportunity to make political capital. His sharply anti-war stance, which was interpreted (not altogether correctly) by some as anti-Americanism, pleased the left of his party. It pleased the SDP's potential coalition partners, the Greens, who had other disputes with the Americans, and it may also have drawn some former East Germans who might otherwise have voted for the PDS.

It left Mr Stoiber with the choice of whether to endorse the US position - thereby exposing himself to the "poodle" charges so familiar to Tony Blair - or to find a middle way. Eventually, he settled on a call for UN involvement, but beside Mr Schröder's categorical undertaking not to take Germany into a war, he looked vague and indecisive.

Or at least he did until Saddam Hussein's letter to the UN accepting arms inspections. Suddenly, Mr Stoiber was able to look wise and statesmanlike, while accusing Mr Schröder of recklessly whipping up war fever and isolating Germany from Europe and the international community for personal electoral gain. After giving the Chancellor a small lead last weekend, the polls have since tightened again, suggesting that the advantages of the floods and Iraq to Mr Schröder might be waning.

Now, two days before the election, the gap between the two main parties and the two likely coalition partners in all five major polls is well within the margin of error. In other words, they are so close as to be level.

(SNIP)

The paradox at the heart of this election is that while outside factors have had an exceptional and possibly decisive impact, the campaign has been conspicuously Germany-centred and fought with scarcely a glance abroad - even though the result stands to reverberate well beyond Germany's borders.

Rightly or wrongly, it will be seen as showing whether the advance of the right in Europe has been halted, as the Swedish election last week suggested. It will determine whether the Franco-German axis has a chance of returning to dominance in the Europe Union (as a Stoiber victory might suggest), or the current, more eclectic formation of ad hoc alliances favoured by Mr Blair, continues. Above all, it will determine how Germany is viewed: in feel alone, Schröder-land or Stoiber-land could be very different places.

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© 2002, Gloria R. Lalumia
insight@zianet.com

Updated listings of Radio for Progressives on the internet at http://www.zianet.com/insightanalytical

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