World Media Watch for September 18, 2002

BUZZFLASH NOTE: Once again, these are the views and perspectives of the individual papers, not of BuzzFlash or Gloria. They offer BuzzFlash readers a way of reading what other nations are saying about the crisis, whether we like it or not. We repeat: This is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

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1//The Frontier Post, Pakistan--OSAMA IS ALIVE (The former Taliban official observed that with sophisticated state of the art defence technology how come US has not been able to track Osama's hideout adding that it seems that the US intentionally does not want to arrest him.Ruling out any full scale military offensive by the Taliban, he said that the "Afghans are expert of guerilla warfare and Afghanistan is a typical country for this kind of offensive and they are focusing on that".)

2//The Khaleej Times, United Arab Emirates--NORTH KOREA STOCKPILES 5,000 TONS OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS (Stalinist North Korea, which has reportedly stockpiled up to 5,000 tons of chemical weapons, is believed to be capable of nearly doubling its stocks in one year, South Korea's defense ministry said on Monday.)

3//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting, USA--NORTH KOREA LOOKING TO U.S. WITH SUMMIT CONCESSIONS (Pyongyang is counting on its sudden burst of friendly diplomacy with Japan to draw the Bush administration to the negotiating table and increase opposition among Washington's Northeast Asia allies for its hard-line North Korean policy.)

ADDITIONAL NON-SUBSCRIBER EXCERPTS FROM STRATFOR:

WASHINGTON AND ALLIES AGAIN DIVERGE ON IRAQ (Washington will spend the next few weeks attempting to reassemble key elements of the coalition in order to facilitate ongoing preparations for war. In the process, it may make some concessions on issues like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Chechnya.)

RUMSFELD INDICATES NUCLEAR STATUS KEY TO PRE-EMPTION POLICY (His comment suggests the U.S. military will attack a country to prevent it from getting nuclear weapons but will not attack if it already has such arms. This distinction may encourage countries like Iraq to demonstrate a credible nuclear threat in order to avoid being attacked.)

4//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong--RUSSIA, US ON COLLISION COURSE (Against this background, the growing schism between Moscow and Washington will likely lead to open conflicts in certain regions of special importance to Russia. Being evident in the recent events, Central Asia and the Caucasus will be two major candidates. )

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1//The Frontier Post Updated on 9/18/2002 12:29:44 AM
http://www.frontierpost.com.pk/main.asp?id=7&date1=9/18/2002

OSAMA IS ALIVE

ISLAMABAD: Al Qaeda Network's elusive leader Osama bin Laden has survived the massive aerial bombing of the US war planes during the past one year in Afghanistan and is hiding at a secret place, the Afghan sources told The Frontier Post Monday.

"Both Mulla Omar Mujahid and Osama bin Laden are alive and are in good contact with each other in Afghanistan but I am not aware of their whereabouts", said an ex-Taliban official on condition of anonymity.

The former Taliban official observed that with sophisticated state of the art defence technology how come US has not been able to track Osama's hideout adding that it seems that the US intentionally does not want to arrest him.

He said that the US-led international forces inside Afghanistan have suffered "hundreds of casualties during the past one year and would not be able to sustain their presence long as the Taliban and other forces would continue to carry out their military offensives until Afghanistan is rid of foreign forces".

(SNIP)

Ruling out any full scale military offensive by the Taliban, he said that the "Afghans are expert of guerilla warfare and Afghanistan is a typical country for this kind of offensive and they are focusing on that".

2//The Khaleej Times 17 September 2002. 10 Rajab, 1423.
http://www.khaleejtimes.co.ae/theworld.htm#storyh

NORTH KOREA STOCKPILES 5,000 TONS OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS

SEOUL (AFP) - Stalinist North Korea, which has reportedly stockpiled up to 5,000 tons of chemical weapons, is believed to be capable of nearly doubling its stocks in one year, South Korea's defense ministry said on Monday.

The North is also fully prepared for biological warfare, according to a ministry report presented to parliament. The communist state's stockpile of chemical weapons, which consists of 17 different types, is now between 2,500 tons and 5,000 tons, the report said. Pyongyang is presumed to be able to produce some 4,500 tons of chemical weapons annually, it added.

The South's defense ministry report also said the North has retained 13 different lethal germs to be used for biological warfare and is believed to be able to produce a ton of biological weapons material every year, it added.

(MORE)

3//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting 17 September 2002
http://www.stratfor.com/fib/topStory_view.php?ID=206230

NORTH KOREA LOOKING TO U.S. WITH SUMMIT CONCESSIONS

Summary

North Korea performed beyond expectations during Kim Jong Il's summit meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi Sept. 17. During the meeting, Kim apologized for North Korea's abduction of 11 Japanese citizens and vowed to extend the country's missile moratorium. Pyongyang has broken down all barriers to establishing diplomatic ties with Japan -- and now is setting its sights on the United States.

Analysis

(SNIP)

Kim's bombshell admission of North Korea's guilt in the kidnapping issue is aimed not only at Japan but at the United States as well. North Korea believes its future will be assured only when there is a paradigm shift in relations with Washington. Pyongyang is counting on its sudden burst of friendly diplomacy with Japan to draw the Bush administration to the negotiating table and increase opposition among Washington's Northeast Asia allies for its hard-line North Korean policy.

Despite being derided as a backwards "hermit kingdom," North Korea consistently has demonstrated a knack for surviving even under the most adverse conditions. Tacking to the international winds and skillfully playing on global fears and desires remain the key tools in Pyongyang's bag, and the current push to normalize relations with Japan is just another step in this strategy.

North Korea already established diplomatic ties with Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom while riding the wave of the June 2000 inter-Korean summit, and as it works out the details of normalization with Japan, Pyongyang already is looking beyond to the United States.

Over the past month, North Korea has not only engaged Japan but also has resumed cooperation and discussions with South Korea. The two are set to restart construction of an inter-Korean railway Sept. 18 and have agreed on several concrete steps to physically connect both countries, including building a land route from South Korea to the North Korean Mount Kumgang tourist resort.

(MORE)

ADDITIONAL NON-SUBSCRIBER EXCERPTS FROM STRATFOR:
http://www.stratfor.com/

WASHINGTON AND ALLIES AGAIN DIVERGE ON IRAQ Iraq's acceptance of United Nations inspectors has temporarily scattered the United States' reluctant coalition, just as the U.S. military has begun the air campaign. Washington will spend the next few weeks attempting to reassemble key elements of the coalition in order to facilitate ongoing preparations for war. In the process, it may make some concessions on issues like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Chechnya.

RUMSFELD INDICATES NUCLEAR STATUS KEY TO PRE-EMPTION POLICY During a press briefing Sept. 16, U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld said North Korea has nuclear weapons. His comment suggests the U.S. military will attack a country to prevent it from getting nuclear weapons but will not attack if it already has such arms. This distinction may encourage countries like Iraq to demonstrate a credible nuclear threat in order to avoid being attacked.

4//Asia Times Online September 18, 2002
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/DI18Ag01.html

RUSSIA, US ON COLLISION COURSE

By Hooman Peimani

Dr Hooman Peimani works as an independent consultant with international organizations in Geneva and does research in international relations.

(SNIP) Today, Russia has yet to address many domestic issues, but the growing expansion of American political and military influence in its vicinity and its loss of hope of receiving substantial economic assistance from Western countries have convinced it to change its policy of cooperation with the United States. Certain recent events have demonstrated the growing schism between Russia and the US. They have included Russia's expanding economic and political ties with Iran, Iraq and North Korea, the members of the so-called axis of evil, and the worsening Russian-Georgian ties over Georgia's alleged tolerance of the Chechen rebels in its territory.

Against this background, the growing schism between Moscow and Washington will likely lead to open conflicts in certain regions of special importance to Russia. Being evident in the recent events, Central Asia and the Caucasus will be two major candidates. As the American economic, political and military presence is expanding in those neighboring regions of which three countries (Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Georgia) are hosting American military forces, fear of encirclement will motivate Russia to use all the means at its disposal to force those countries to limit their ties with the Americans.

Added to its geographical proximity, years of membership in the Russian and Soviet political entities have created many ethnic, economic and political ties between Russia and its southern neighbors, which enable the Russians to pressure these countries, in one way or another. Pressure tactics could include Russia's manipulation of their domestic dissident movements and its limiting or blocking the international trade of those countries passing through its territory or through other Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. For example, it could seek to prevent or to prolong the construction of the Baku-Tiblisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline due to begin this week, a feasible scenario given the existence of a wide range of armed dissident and separatist groups in Azerbaijan and Georgia and Russia's opposition to its construction. Military showdowns, as evident in the ongoing conflict over Georgia's Pankisi Valley or in the August naval maneuver in the Caspian Sea, will also be used by Russia in cases when other means prove to be not convincing enough.

Russia's use of such measures against countries with close ties with the United States will likely make them appeal to the Americans to help them relieve the Russian pressure. In such case, an American reaction in a military or non-military form will not be surprising, although it will clearly worsen American-Russian relations. As a few predictable non-military measures, the Americans could use their economic power to deny Russia loans or credits from American or American-dominated financial institutions, to create barriers to its trade with them and their allies, and to impose economic sanctions on Russia. They could also block Russia World Trade Organization membership, which it has aspired to for quite some time. Depending on the situation, the Americans could also react by beefing up the military force of the affected country or by expanding their military presence there to deter any possible Russian military operation.

Tension and conflict between Russia and the United States in Central Asia and or over Russia's relations with Iran will go beyond those issues to affect negatively their cooperation on certain areas. Therefore, one should expect the rise of conflict over issues on which the two sides have reached an understanding. As NATO considers the membership applications of many eastern European and CIS countries, the NATO eastward expansion will probably become a source of tension when that organization begins its new round of membership selection in the near future. Russia's recent affiliation with NATO will unlikely be a strong incentive for the Russians to avoid conflicts with NATO at the time when American military presence is expanding along their southern borders.

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© 2002, Gloria R. Lalumia
insight@zianet.com

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