World Media Watch for September 13, 2002

BUZZFLASH NOTE: Once again, these are the views and perspectives of the individual papers, not of BuzzFlash or Gloria. They offer BuzzFlash readers a way of reading what other nations are saying about the crisis, whether we like it or not. We repeat: This is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

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1//Jane's Intelligence Digest, UK--IRAQ: THE HOUSE OF CARDS (However, what the Kremlin fears most is the ousting of Saddam Hussein and his replacement with a US-backed puppet regime. Should such an administration be installed in Baghdad, there is likely to be a marked fall in oil prices as US oil companies are free once again to invest in Iraq's ageing and under-funded industry. While lower oil prices will be welcomed by the US, Russia will be facing difficult economic prospects. From Moscow's perspective, a protracted diplomatic wrangle - and restricted Iraqi oil output - would be best.)

2//The Moscow Times, Russia--OPINION: IS PUTIN READY TO BARGAIN? (The Russian president is well known for often making unpredictable but pragmatic decisions. Putin may figure that supporting Saddam is a hopeless stance. The fact that the sea border problem near Alaska has abruptly faded from national TV screens may be a sign that Putin is ready to bargain in earnest.)

3//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong--ASIAN WINNERS AND LOSERS AFTER SEPTEMBER 11 (In the year since the September 11 terror attacks, Asian nations have tried to turn US President George W Bush's "you're either with us or against us" challenge on its head: they're against terrorism but they don't want to be with the United States. The nations that have been able to co-opt the war on terror for their own objectives have made some impressive gains [that may have little to do with terror], while those caught up in US objectives have suffered casualties.)

4//The Tehran Times, Iran--ARAFAT CALLS ELECTIONS, CABINET QUITS (The cabinet's resignation was the dramatic outcome of two days of stormy debate in the reform-minded Palestinian Legislative Council. "Our aim was to topple the government, and the government now is toppled," Jamal al-Shobaki, a lawmaker from Arafat's own Fatah Faction who is nevertheless critical of the cabinet, told Reuters.)

5//The Japan Times, Japan--IMF FEARS FOR SAFETY OF JAPAN'S AILING BANKS (The IMF also said financial and corporate sector problems in Japan are destabilizing factors for the global economy, an apparent reference to the need for Japan to accelerate the disposal of bad loans at banks and promote corporate restructuring... The IMF said the dollar continued to depreciate against the other major currencies, reflecting reductions in foreign investment in U.S. equity markets as well as in foreign direct investment. The decline in foreign investment in U.S. markets could serve as a source of risk for global financial markets, it added, calling on the United States to maintain fiscal discipline to avoid a withdrawal of funds by investors.)

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1//Jane's Intelligence Digest 12 September 2002
http://www.janes.com/security/international_security/news/jid/jid020912_1_n.shtml
(From non-subscriber extract)

IRAQ: THE HOUSE OF CARDS

Although most European political leaders have already lined up with the Arab nations to oppose a US-led military campaign against Iraq, a key issue is whether China and Russia - both permanent members of the United Nations Security Council - will continue to undermine efforts to issue a UN ultimatum to Baghdad. JID examines whether this could be the beginning of the end of the anti-terrorism coalition.

(SNIP)

However, it also cannot be denied that Moscow and Beijing have been actively pursuing their own security agendas. Since both states have what they consider their own 'terrorist threats' to counter, a major factor in their support for the 'global war on terror' is that, post-11 September, the US has been more understanding of their own 'anti-terrorism' campaigns in Chechnya, Tibet and Xinjiang.

Given the links known to exist between Al-Qaeda and separatist rebels in both Chechnya and Xinjiang, this has not proved too difficult a proposition to sell to Washington, even if human rights groups continue to protest against tough security measures that they claim target civilians and non-violent political protesters, as well as armed militants.

Extending the campaign objectives to include 'regime change' in Iraq, however, is an entirely different issue. While a US-led military offensive against the Taliban regime was welcomed (and in the case of Russia, it was actively encouraged), there are grave concerns in both Moscow and Beijing over war with Iraq.

Although Russia and China both share a fundamental political objection to allowing the US to oust the rulers of sovereign states such as Iraq, there are other serious concerns. Russia, in particular, is keen to maintain oil market stability. Moscow has benefited greatly from the restricted supply of Iraqi oil since the Gulf War in 1991. Relatively high - and stable - oil prices have given Russia a major economic boost.

However, what the Kremlin fears most is the ousting of Saddam Hussein and his replacement with a US-backed puppet regime. Should such an administration be installed in Baghdad, there is likely to be a marked fall in oil prices as US oil companies are free once again to invest in Iraq's ageing and under-funded industry. While lower oil prices will be welcomed by the US, Russia will be facing difficult economic prospects. From Moscow's perspective, a protracted diplomatic wrangle - and restricted Iraqi oil output - would be best.

2//The Moscow Times Thursday, Sep. 12, 2002. Page 9
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2002/09/12/009.html

OPINION: IS PUTIN READY TO BARGAIN?
By Pavel Felgenhauer
Pavel Felgenhauer is an independent defense analyst.

The United States and Britain are lobbying reluctant allies to sanction the use of force to topple Saddam Hussein -- and President Vladimir Putin seems to be first in line to be wooed. Last week, U.S. President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair phoned Putin at his state residence in Sochi on the Black Sea. The official Russian account of these conversations is that Putin was "not convinced" force is the best option.

(SNIP)

However, accounts of recent Putin-Bush conversations from Washington differ strongly from the Russian version. High-ranking U.S. diplomats say Bush and Putin have discussed Iraq and Georgia and had a "very good conversation."

The main bone of contention between Moscow and Washington seems at present to be not so much Iraq as Georgia. The Kremlin has for some time been probing Washington about a possible deal that would allow the Russians a free hand in the Caucasus, including Georgia, while the Americans in turn corner Saddam. But such a deal seems out of reach, since Washington has committed itself unequivocally to supporting Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze and "the territorial integrity of Georgia."

The White House has recently officially confirmed the bombing of Georgian territory by Russian planes on Aug. 23. In an apparent response, members of the Federation Council have suddenly attacked a 12-year-old accord demarcating the sea boundary near Alaska, signed by then-Soviet Foreign Minister Shevardnadze and the U.S. secretary of state at the time, James Baker.

(SNIP)

Putin is obviously deeply displeased with U.S. support of Shevardnadze, who -- the Kremlin believes -- is harboring Chechen "terrorists" on Georgian territory. In turn, Washington was dismayed by Russian officials openly lying about the bombing of Georgia on Aug. 23.

(SNIP)

Nevertheless, Washington is eager to strike a deal with Putin. Evans insisted that U.S. policy on Chechnya has not changed: "Armed men running around the Caucasus, crossing borders, killing people, are not our friends. In recent months [Chechen rebel leader Aslan] Maskhadov has embraced jihad elements and terrorists, so we are now reluctant to offer him to Moscow as a partner for negotiations."

But will this be enough to coax Putin to go against most of his political elite -- as after Sept. 11 -- and at least tacitly support a U.S. move against Saddam? The Russian president is well known for often making unpredictable but pragmatic decisions. Putin may figure that supporting Saddam is a hopeless stance. The fact that the sea border problem near Alaska has abruptly faded from national TV screens may be a sign that Putin is ready to bargain in earnest.

3//Asia Times Online September 12, 2002
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/DI13Ae07.html

ASIAN WINNERS AND LOSERS AFTER SEPTEMBER 11
By Gary LaMoshi

HONG KONG - In the year since the September 11 terror attacks, Asian nations have tried to turn US President George W Bush's "you're either with us or against us" challenge on its head: they're against terrorism but they don't want to be with the United States. The nations that have been able to co-opt the war on terror for their own objectives have made some impressive gains (that may have little to do with terror), while those caught up in US objectives have suffered casualties.

(SNIP)

Indonesia has reaped the greatest benefit at the smallest price from increased US concern over terror connections in Southeast Asia. Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri's charmed stars made her the first foreign leader to visit the White House after the September 11 attacks, and she walked away with a half-billion-dollar aid package in exchange for bland promises to support anti-terror efforts. She's since backed away from the US embrace to keep more radical Muslim voice focus on Uncle Sam rather than Ibu Mega, while continuing to take US dollars. Indonesia's armed forces have been the primary beneficiary, regaining US official military assistance.

The military remains a wild card in Indonesian politics, and with its US seal of approval, a more potent one. The military has agreed to give up its seats when the new legislature is chosen in 2004. The chief has also urged his troops not to use their newly granted voting power. Separating the military from politics may be a sign of maturing democracy in Indonesia. It may position the brass hats, with their renewed channels to US officials, as an alternative to an increasingly paralyzed, immature political elite.

Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo's enthusiasm for the war on terror seems to have backfired. Admitting US troops for a training mission to help the Philippine army tackle Abu Sayyaf separatists failed to wipe out the rebel group, rekindling anti-US sentiment that probably helps the larger, more dangerous Moro Islamic Front. The operation to free two US hostages left one of them dead, hardly a powerful symbol for winning hearts and minds. The US mission may have built physical and political infrastructure for future moves in that part of the region, but it has also exposed the political price to the Philippines for such moves.

Looking down the scorecard, the winning countries turned US anti-terror rhetoric toward their own objectives while maintaining their distance from the US and its actions in Afghanistan. Call the Asians opportunists - or cite the US for missing an opportunity to convert the sympathy of last year into widespread goodwill.

4//The Tehran Times September 12, 2002
http://www.netiran.com/dailynews.html

ARAFAT CALLS ELECTIONS, CABINET QUITS

RAMALLAH, West Bank -- Palestinian President Yasser Arafat's cabinet quit on Wednesday, avoiding a confidence vote that could have embarrassed him, after he called presidential and legislative elections for January 20.

The cabinet's resignation was the dramatic outcome of two days of stormy debate in the reform-minded Palestinian Legislative Council.

"Our aim was to topple the government, and the government now is toppled," Jamal al-Shobaki, a lawmaker from Arafat's own Fatah Faction who is nevertheless critical of the cabinet, told Reuters.

Arafat's decree on the elections, announced by the parliamentary speaker, followed intense international and domestic pressure on him to reform his government.

The Palestinian leader -- widely expected to be reelected in the January vote -- has faced criticism in Parliament for not doing enough to overhaul the government. Legislators had predicted a tough fight for cabinet approval.

Outside Parliament, cracks also emerged in Fatah over the release of a draft document calling for an end to Palestinian attacks on Israeli civilians. A top official said it had been leaked before being finalized.

(SNIP)

"President Arafat has accepted the resignation of the cabinet, so there is no need to bring the cabinet to a confidence vote," Tayeb Abdel Rahim, general secretary of the Palestinian presidency, told the legislature. "In the next 14 days, President Arafat will appoint a new cabinet."

The ministers resigned after Arafat's announcement of an election date failed to calm tensions within Parliament.

(MORE)

5//The Japan Times Friday, September 13, 2002
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/getarticle.pl5?nb20020913a2.htm

IMF FEARS FOR SAFETY OF JAPAN'S AILING BANKS

WASHINGTON (Kyodo) The International Monetary Fund voiced concern Thursday for Japanese banks fighting to stay afloat in increasingly stormy waters.

"Continued high loan losses as well as losses on banks' substantial equity portfolios will reduce bank capital," the IMF said of the Japanese banking sector in its quarterly Global Financial Stability Report.

(SNIP)

The IMF also said financial and corporate sector problems in Japan are destabilizing factors for the global economy, an apparent reference to the need for Japan to accelerate the disposal of bad loans at banks and promote corporate restructuring.

(SNIP)

The IMF attributed the global stock slump mainly to an erosion of investor confidence following a series of corporate accounting scandals in the United States and growing uncertainty about the strength and durability of the world economic recovery.

But it said the global economy will continue to grow, although "at a slower pace than previously expected," unless individual investors rapidly withdraw their funds from stock markets.

The IMF said the dollar continued to depreciate against the other major currencies, reflecting reductions in foreign investment in U.S. equity markets as well as in foreign direct investment.

The decline in foreign investment in U.S. markets could serve as a source of risk for global financial markets, it added, calling on the United States to maintain fiscal discipline to avoid a withdrawal of funds by investors.

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© 2002, Gloria R. Lalumia
insight@zianet.com

Updated listings of Radio for Progressives on the internet at http://www.zianet.com/insightanalytical

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