World Media Watch for August 21, 2002

BUZZFLASH NOTE: Once again, these are the views and perspectives of the individual papers, not of BuzzFlash or Gloria. They offer BuzzFlash readers a way of reading what other nations are saying about the crisis, whether we like it or not. We repeat: This is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

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1//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting BREAKING--BUSH SUMMIT WON'T RESOLVE IRAQ ISSUE (The timing and makeup of the summit indeed does not support the notion that this meeting is really a "war council" to discuss Iraq....One of those who will not be present is Secretary of State Colin Powell. Powell reportedly opposes an immediate attack on Iraq... it would be politically dangerous for Bush to make the decision to attack while publicly excluding his own secretary of state from the decision-making process. This is particularly true when influential, non-liberal figures are lining up against the invasion.)

2//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting, USA-- WASHINGTON RETREATING ON IRAQ (While there may have been a logic behind the Iraq campaign, it failed when it came at the expense of the war on al Qaeda. The question is not whether Washington can back down from its Iraq policy. It must. The question is how can it manage the political retreat? This shouldn't be too difficult at home. CNN's broadcast over the weekend of al Qaeda's video library -- showing chemical gas experiments and explosives-making -- is perfectly timed to help begin refocusing the American public.)

3//Pravda, Russia--SADDAM HUSSEIN'S TRUMP CARD (Russia's penetration into Iraq means that there will soon be thousands of Russian specialists on the territory of the "axis of evil." This will present more problems for the USA. It will be hard for Washington to bomb Russians in Iraq when Russia is one of America's allies in the anti-terrorist coalition.)

4//The Times of India, India--MUSH FACED 3 ASSASSINATION ATTEMPTS: REPORTS (Pakistani military ruler Pervez Musharraf has faced at least three assassination attempts in recent weeks and drastically curtailed his public appearances, Pakistani analysts and expatriates are saying...Musharraf has been meeting jehadi leaders in private in a bid to get them to ease the pressure on him. But like the major political forces that are now firmly arrayed against him, the religious leaders are also uncompromising. "He is a scared man," Sehbai's Tribune quoted Jamaat-I-Islami chief Qazi Hussain Ahmed as saying after three-hour meeting with Musharraf.)

5//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong--THE BEAR AND THE DRAGON MEAN BUSINESS (Relations between Russia and China are set to reach new heights on a wave of geopolitical self-interest, bilateral trade and - ironically for two such old and bitter Cold War sparring partners - a growing trade in arms.)

6//The Newsmexico.com, Mexico--VENEZUELA WANTS HELP WITH OPPOSITION (Roger Noriega, the U.S. ambassador to the Organization of the American States, quickly responded that the 34-country panel "is eager to take the necessary steps to help Venezuela consolidate its democracy."... Secretary of State Colin Powell, who has called the Chavez government a political concern for the United States, has insisted the OAS find a solution in Venezuela based on the group's democratic charter. It empowers the OAS to take any measures it deems appropriate to deal with democracies in trouble in the Western Hemisphere.)

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1//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting BREAKING http://www.stratfor.com/fib/topStory_view.php?ID=205826
BUSH SUMMIT WON'T RESOLVE IRAQ ISSUE 20 August 2002

Summary

U.S. President George W. Bush is gathering major U.S. policymakers to his ranch in Crawford, Texas, Aug. 21. Despite speculation, the timing and makeup of the meeting indicate that the Bush administration has decided not to make a final decision during the summit on whether to attack Iraq.

Analysis

(SNIP)

The timing and makeup of the summit indeed does not support the notion that this meeting is really a "war council" to discuss Iraq. Among the attendees will be Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice and Gen. Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Also present to brief the president on missile defense will be the director of the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization, Lt. Gen. Ronald Kadish.

One of those who will not be present is Secretary of State Colin Powell. Powell reportedly opposes an immediate attack on Iraq. Therefore, his exclusion from the meeting signaled to many that a decision to attack had been made and that he had finally fallen from grace within the Bush administration and was on his way out.

The problem with that theory is that it would be politically dangerous for Bush to make the decision to attack while publicly excluding his own secretary of state from the decision-making process. This is particularly true when influential, non-liberal figures are lining up against the invasion.

(MORE)

2//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting 19 August 2002
http://www.stratfor.com/fib/topStory_view.php?ID=205803

(NOTE: Minutes after posting these excerpts, the link to the article became inoperative. The story has been moved to the subscriber-only section.)
WASHINGTON RETREATING ON IRAQ
Summary

The Bush administration has begun to back down from plans for a near-term attack on Iraq. The controversial plan was shredding the coalition against al Qaeda, which Washington needs in battling the group. But the Bush administration's retreat from Iraq, although necessary, forces it to manage a political and psychological defeat.

Analysis

The Bush administration in the past few days has begun backing down from its single-minded commitment to attacking Iraq. This was forced in part by broad opposition in the Middle East and Europe to such a plan and dissension at home.

The White House's wavering reflects the tortuous political and military complexity of containing a war on Iraq and its aftermath. But the Bush administration, unilateralist chest-thumping aside, also realizes that it needs the assistance of many countries if it is to keep al Qaeda and its sympathizers in check.

A reversal of policy on Iraq was necessary in terms of both long-term U.S. anti-terrorism goals and short-term preparedness for new al Qaeda attacks. However, the retreat is a strategic psychological defeat for the administration, particularly in the Middle East. Washington inadvertently stumbled into exactly the trap al Qaeda hoped to set for it.

Its Iraq policy united the Muslim Middle East across border, racial and sectarian lines against the United States. And that opposition appears to have thwarted a major U.S. attack in the region. Washington will need to exercise damage control in its relations with individual Muslim countries and, despite the drawdown on Iraq, could face increased resistance in the region in the near future.

(SNIP)

The administration's about-face indicates that it recognizes the grim reality on three counts. First, despite the increasingly strident assertions by unilateralists within the administration that the United States could attack Iraq without the support of a coalition, the need for friendly bases in the Middle East argued otherwise. The United States literally was running out of room to maneuver. Second, given its battlefield constraints, Washington could not be sure it could contain a war on Iraq within that country's borders or manage the war's aftermath.

Finally, the administration accepted that Iraq is peripheral to its primary strategic concern: al Qaeda. And while the United States may have the firepower to defeat the Iraqi army, it needs intelligence as much as rifles to defeat al Qaeda. That intelligence comes from allies in the Middle East, and the United States cannot afford for it to dry up.

(SNIP)

While there may have been a logic behind the Iraq campaign, it failed when it came at the expense of the war on al Qaeda. The question is not whether Washington can back down from its Iraq policy. It must. The question is how can it manage the political retreat?

This shouldn't be too difficult at home. CNN's broadcast over the weekend of al Qaeda's video library -- showing chemical gas experiments and explosives-making -- is perfectly timed to help begin refocusing the American public. The democrats will have to think twice before adopting a pro-war stance as a campaign issue while republicans will find it easy to again rally around the anti-al Qaeda campaign.

There may be some squabbling within the administration itself, as the unilateralists attempt to defend their positions against Powell and the resurgent coalitionists, but nothing too drastic will emerge.

Overall, a policy reversal should play well for domestic politics. It should not pose much of a problem for U.S. relations with its European allies either, as they will see this as a rare case of Washington knocked to its senses by reality.

For those who hope to challenge U.S. hegemony, Washington's retreat on Iraq will be seen as a major victory. Al Qaeda's strategic goal was to pit the United States against all of Islam, in the process giving the Islamic world a common enemy against which to unite. Washington stumbled into that trap with its Iraq policy, with Arabs and Persians, Sunnis and Shiites uniting against the campaign and thwarting U.S. intentions.

Washington must now counteract this precedent in its relations with individual Muslim states. Though the Iraq issue may subside temporarily, Washington should expect increased resistance on other issues from countries across the region emboldened by their success. A series of confrontations over the next few months -- like the recent and as-yet unexplained dispute between Washington and Cairo that led to a withholding of future U.S. aid to Egypt -- can be expected.

3/Pravda 2002-08-19
http://english.pravda.ru/main/2002/08/19/34765.html

SADDAM HUSSEIN'S TRUMP CARD
Dmitry Chirkin
Translated by Dmitry Sudakov

Washington will think twice before bombing Iraq. Soon, there will be many Russian specialists in Iraq.

The world media have been searching for fresh news on the Iraqi issue for quite some time, but now they have cheered up again. The Washington Post newspaper stirred everything up when it published a long article devoted to the issue of an economic deal between Moscow and Baghdad.

(SNIP)

These actions allow Russia to control almost one-third of the developed oil deposits in Iraq. These oil reserves are evaluated to be around 650 billion barrels. Russia also controls one half of the developed gas reserves in Iraq: 1800 trillion cubic feet.

If these figures are added to Russia's reserves (about 50 billion barrels of crude) and to the Caspian reserves, then Moscow is likely to dictate its own conditions, not only to Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States, but even to Washington.

As you can see, there is something here to struggle for. However, it would be foolish for Moscow and Baghdad to believe that Washington will give up on Iraqi oil. Bush might think, not twice, but twenty times before striking Iraq. However, this will only be a delay.

Russian petroleum companies are actively working in European and American markets. They are not at all willing to have problems with Washington. The newspaper Vremya Novostey wrote: "If Moscow has the nerve to sign this plan, then Russia will be in the track of American politics all the same.

Russian petroleum companies claim that they cannot take oil out of Iraq. They say that this is unprofitable due to the special price policy of London and Washington. Russian diplomacy is unable to stand up against them. Russian petroleum companies are more drawn to cooperation, not with Iraq, but with Kuwait. LUKOIL does not actually believe that it will develop the giant West Qurna deposit in Iraq. International sanctions by the USA do not allow this, no matter what documents are signed.

The given agreement can be considered not from an economic, but from a psychological point of view. This is enough to present economic claims to Washington regarding this region of the world. Second, it is enough to give food for thought to the Europeans who are rushing between Moscow and Washington.

Baghdad guessed correctly regarding Russia. Iraqi Ambassador to Russia Abbas Khalaf said: "First of all, we need moral, political, and diplomatic support, because Iraq knows how to defend itself." Russia's penetration into Iraq means that there will soon be thousands of Russian specialists on the territory of the "axis of evil." This will present more problems for the USA. It will be hard for Washington to bomb Russians in Iraq when Russia is one of America's allies in the anti-terrorist coalition.

4//The Times of India Wednesday, August 21, 2002
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow.asp?artid=19690204

MUSH FACED 3 ASSASSINATION ATTEMPTS: REPORTS
Chidanand Rajghatta
Times News Network [Tuesday, August 20, 2002 9:55:50 PM]

WASHINGTON: Pakistani military ruler Pervez Musharraf has faced at least three assassination attempts in recent weeks and drastically curtailed his public appearances, Pakistani analysts and expatriates are saying.

The reports are not being confirmed by American or Indian officials. A senior US administration official said "we doubt there is very much to these reports." An Indian official said it looked likely that the reports were put out by the military regime spinmeisters to show the danger Musharraf was facing.

"If there was anything to this, you bet we would have known," the official said. The Indian intelligence prides itself on having the inside scoop in Pakistan.

But the reports have been coming from sources that are not particularly well-disposed towards Musharraf. One such source is the new online journal South Asia Tribune, which reported that the latest attempt on Musharraf occurred last week at the Chaklala Air Base when unidentified gunmen opened fire killing three of his special security guards.

The journal is edited by Shaheen Sehbai, a journalist who was recently hounded out of Pakistan by the military regime. Sehbai did not source the story other than saying they are "believable reports.

"What does appear certain though is that Musharraf is taking extraordinary security precautions in recent days. According to UPI's South Asia analyst Anwar Iqbal, the Pakistani dictator now moves around in a 10-12 Mercedes cavalcade with look-alikes sitting in every other car to confuse would be assassins.

"Several versions of his itinerary are distributed every day among the officials and Cabinet members but only the president and his security men know which of these is the one Musharraf is going to follow.

The president often fails to attend an event if the press somehow finds out that he is going to be there. Few visitors outside his immediate circle of friends, relatives and aides are allowed to meet him. A helicopter follows the cavalcade while sharpshooters and guards man the entire route," a UPI report said.

(SNIP)

However Musharraf has been meeting jehadi leaders in private in a bid to get them to ease the pressure on him. But like the major political forces that are now firmly arrayed against him, the religious leaders are also uncompromising.

"He is a scared man," Sehbai's Tribune quoted Jamaat-I-Islami chief Qazi Hussain Ahmed as saying after three-hour meeting with Musharraf.

5//Asia Times Online August 20, 2002
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/DH21Ag02.html

THE BEAR AND THE DRAGON MEAN BUSINESS
By Sergei Blagov

MOSCOW - Relations between Russia and China are set to reach new heights on a wave of geopolitical self-interest, bilateral trade and - ironically for two such old and bitter Cold War sparring partners - a growing trade in arms.

Economically, trade turnover between the two countries was up roughly 20 percent in the first half of this year compared to the same period in 2001, to about US$5.5 billion. Of this amount, $1.3 billion accounted for China's exports to Russia (Russia runs a healthy surplus in its trade with China). To encourage this trend, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov will travel to Shanghai from August 21-23 for talks with his Chinese counterpart Zhu Rongji. The two are expected to ink four business deals, including an agreement on banking cooperation.

Also, a group of Chinese officials and 50 businessmen traveled to Moscow, Zelenograd and Nizhny Novgorod earlier this month to find ways to work with Russia in high technology. During the course of their visit, which ended on August 8, the Chinese representatives of 26 energy, aviation, metals and agriculture firms reportedly discussed joint ventures and projects.

Then, on August 12, Grigory Polischuk, deputy head of Russia's space agency, announced that Russia and China had finalized a blueprint for cooperation in space research through the year 2005. In the first six months of this year, a total of 27 hi-tech contracts worth $20.8 million were signed between Russian and Chinese firms (compared to contracts worth $11.7 million signed in 2001), according to Russian statistics.

However, "it is well understood" (as an unreconstructed old-style Soviet would say) that Moscow is largely interested in tapping China's armaments market. That interest was symbolized by the August 19 flight of 10 brand new Su-30MKK fighters from Komsomolsk-on-Amur to China's Uhu airbase as a part of a contract to supply China with a total of 28 Sukhois. Over the past year, Russia has secured a number of multi-million dollar contracts to build military hardware for China, including a $1.4 billion deal to supply the Chinese navy with two Sovremenny-class destroyers. Moscow and Beijing have even reportedly drafted plans for Sino-Russian joint military exercises designed to test the reliability of bilateral military communications.

(SNIP)

Nonetheless, these small incidents have hardly affected bilateral Russo-Chinese ties so far. The Kremlin has been very keen to remain on good terms with Beijing, and last week refused to grant an entry visa to the Dalai Lama, who was due to enter the country on September 2 on a three-week journey to Russia's Buddhist regions Buryatia, Kalmykia and Tuva. A few Russian Buddhists demonstrated outside the Russian Foreign Ministry in Moscow, and Buddhist community leaders did send an open letter to Putin calling on him to allow the Dalai Lama to visit. Yet they failed to convince the Kremlin as the Russian Foreign Ministry said that it was concerned about the possible "political overtones" of such a visit. (In 2001, Moscow refused to give transit visa to the Dalai Lama to travel to Mongolia.)

So the dance continues. Last month, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov traveled to Hong Kong and Macau to explore closer economic and trade cooperation. Subsequently, he met with his Chinese counterpart Tang Jiaxuan on the sidelines of an Association of Southeast Asian Nations meeting in Brunei, where he described the countries' bilateral ties as possessing "great vitality". He also characterized trip to China as one heralding "a new stage of long-term, all-round bilateral cooperation".

Expect more such rhetoric when Putin visits Beijing later this year for a planned state visit. Expect a few more arms deals, too.

6//The Newsmexico.com Tuesday, August 20, 2002
http://www.thenewsmexico.com/noticia.asp?id=33289

VENEZUELA WANTS HELP WITH OPPOSITION
Nestor Ikeda, AP - 8/20/2002

WASHINGTON - Venezuela wants outside mediation to help revive the stalled dialogue between the government and its opposition, Foreign Minister Roy Chaderton said Monday.

The two sides have been locked in a power struggle since a failed coup in April.

Roger Noriega, the U.S. ambassador to the Organization of the American States, quickly responded that the 34-country panel "is eager to take the necessary steps to help Venezuela consolidate its democracy."

(SNIP)

Besides the OAS, Chaderton named the Carter Center and the United Nations as the three groups that President Hugo Chavez would accept as "facilitators," reversing his government's initial opposition to any international intervention.

Members of the three groups have recently visited Caracas, Venezuela's capital. They included former President Jimmy Carter, who ended a four-day trip in early July without breaking the political deadlock.

Noriega had no details of the steps the OAS would take to revive the dialogue, which has deteriorated with the withdrawal of prominent business and media leaders. Opposition parties never joined.

He was to meet with Chaderton later in the day. Chaderton sees Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage on Tuesday.

Secretary of State Colin Powell, who has called the Chavez government a political concern for the United States, has insisted the OAS find a solution in Venezuela based on the group's democratic charter. It empowers the OAS to take any measures it deems appropriate to deal with democracies in trouble in the Western Hemisphere.

(SNIP)

During a foreign ministers meeting in Washington, four days after the April coup that overthrew Chavez for a few hours, Venezuela rejected a U.S. proposal to give OAS Secretary-General Cesar Gaviria the lead role in promoting dialogue in Venezuela.

Chaderton would not say if Chavez is ready now to reverse his opposition to Gaviria, a Colombian whose nationality is seen as an obstacle to OAS mediation in Venezuela. Colombia and Venezuela have had cool relations since Colombian officials said Chavez is friendly with Colombian guerrilla groups.

Chavez caused uneasiness in Washington by cozying up to Cuba, Iraq and Libya.

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© 2002, Gloria R. Lalumia
insight@zianet.com

Updated listings of Radio for Progressives on the internet at http://www.zianet.com/insightanalytical

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