World Media Watch for August 7, 2002

BUZZFLASH NOTE: Once again, these are the views and perspectives of the individual papers, not of BuzzFlash or Gloria. They offer BuzzFlash readers a way of reading what other nations are saying about the crisis, whether we like it or not. We repeat: This is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

* * *

1//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong--THE OIL FACTOR IN AN ATTACK ON IRAQ (But consider two additional variables over which the US may have the least amount of influence: the effects of the loss of oil on the European and Japanese economies, and the potential targeting of Saudi and Kuwaiti oil fields by Saddam in the very early phases of the outbreak of hostilities.)

2//The Guardian, UK--LITTLE ROOM FOR MANOEUVRE (The latest report card on America's economic health could make uncomfortable reading for George Bush, writes Mark Tran.... The one remaining option, says Mr Metcalfe, is to allow the dollar to fall, which the administration has been doing. A lower dollar will boost exports, bolster US company profits and provide support for the stock markets. That is fine as long as the decline in the greenback is gradual, but managing currency movements is one of the most difficult things to accomplish as currencies have a tendency to overshoot wildly, so this policy carries substantial risks. But the biggest risk of all may be war.)

3//The Dawn, Pakistan--UK MOVE SHOWS RAID ON IRAQ IMMINENT (As a strongest signal Britain is preparing for war against Iraq the navy's flagship fighter aircraft carrier Ark Royal is to sail for the Mediterranean next month, with 1,300 crew and a full complement of Harrier jets and helicopters...)

4//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting, USA--BRITAIN MOVES TO BRING LIBYA ON BOARD (Britain sent a senior-level envoy to Libya Aug. 6 in a bid to secure Tripoli's cooperation in the U.S. war against terrorism and other Middle Eastern issues.)

5//The Philippine Daily Inquirer, Philippines--US FUNDS TO BE USED IN WAR ON COMMUNIST GUERRILLAS (Reyes said 25 million dollars would be used to put up, train, and equip elite Light Reaction Companies (LRCs) to fight the NPA, the armed wing of the Communist Party of the Philippines that is on the US list of terrorist organizations. Reyes said he was due to leave for Washington in the next few days to discuss with US officials the country's "shopping list" in connection with the 55-million-dollar aid. He said he would also discuss with US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld a "broad range" of military and security issues.)

6//Mainichi Daily News, Japan--TOP SECRET DEFENSE FORCE DATA HELD FOR RANSOM (The agency was rocked Monday night after it was informed by Fujitsu Ltd., which constructed the system, that a blueprint of the network as well as Internet protocol (IP) addresses of terminals used in the agency and the Self-Defense Forces (SDF), were leaked. Since the data shown by the men included information only held by Fujitsu, the agency has concluded that the leak originated from the electronics giant.)

* * *

1//Asia Times Online August 7, 2002
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/DH07Ak02.html

THE OIL FACTOR IN AN ATTACK ON IRAQ
By Ehsan Ahrari
(Ehsan Ahrari, PhD, is a Norfolk, Virginia, US-based strategic analyst.)

As the possibility of war against Iraq increases, the significance of the oil factor is becoming paramount, and it is apparent that the United States government will have to take necessary measures to lessen the prospects of oil shortages within its borders, a tall order by itself.

And the question remains whether the administration of President George W Bush can similarly protect the European and Japanese economies from falling into a deep economic slowdown. The European economies are not doing too badly at present, but the same cannot be said about the economy of Japan, which has been in a state of recession for some time.

In addition, if Saddam Hussein is cornered, would he not target the Saudi and Kuwaiti oil fields to ensure that his neighbors also paid the cost of a US invasion, regardless of whether they supported it or not? One hopes that these questions have become an integral part of the debate that is being conducted within the top echelons of the US administration.

Bush issued an order last November that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) should be filled to its full 700 million barrel capacity. This reserve is generally billed as America's "first line of defense" against a cut-off of oil supplies emanating from any international crisis.

(SNIP)

The total current inventory figure of the SPR is 578.4 million barrels, reported on August 2, 2002. Now, as the public rhetoric within the domestic arena is heating up regarding the "imminence" of war against Iraq, this full capacity of the SPR would serve as a major cushion against any supply shortfall in the United States.

This time, since advanced measures against oil shortfalls are well publicized, the potential of psychological shocks to the US economy would be minimal if or when the US announced its decision to invade Iraq. That announcement would also carry an explicit statement describing the specifics of SPR draw down.

But consider two additional variables over which the US may have the least amount of influence: the effects of the loss of oil on the European and Japanese economies, and the potential targeting of Saudi and Kuwaiti oil fields by Saddam in the very early phases of the outbreak of hostilities.

(SNIP)

Operation Enduring Freedom is long over, but Afghanistan is far from becoming a stable country. In fact, the chances are that guerrilla warfare in that region will continue for the foreseeable future. Certainly, the problems of Afghanistan and Iraq are not overwhelmingly similar, but in both instances the main objective involves regime change. That, by itself, is a highly unpredictable and equally intricate phenomenon. So even if the conventional phases of a war to oust Saddam were to be of short duration, there is absolutely no telling how long it would be before a stable Iraq emerged. More to the point, there is no certainty that oil supplies in the Persian Gulf region would remain unaffected as a result of military operations, and, if interrupted, how long before they were restored to their pre-conflict levels.

In the wake of a military invasion by US forces, in all likelihood he would target the Kuwaiti and Saudi oil fields. It would not matter much to him whether these two Arab states participated in the attack. From his perspective, targeting Saudi and Kuwaiti oil fields would only complicate the invasion, and would make it nearly impossible for Washington to conduct a "short and clean" military operation. In Saddam's calculations, the longer US troops have their boots on Iraqi ground, the higher would be the opportunities to inflict heavy casualties on them. He has not given up on his original thinking of the pre-Operation Desert Storm days that the United States' political capabilities to absorb war casualties are immensely shallow.

(MORE)

2//The Guardian Tuesday August 6, 2002
http://www.guardian.co.uk/bush/story/0,7369,770135,00.html

LITTLE ROOM FOR MANOEUVRE

The latest report card on America's economic health could make uncomfortable reading for George Bush, writes Mark Tran

(SNIP)

Even more uncomfortable reading for the US president, George Bush, is the fund's not-so-veiled criticisms of his economic policies. The fund is not pleased at America's growing budget deficits, the result of tax cuts and big spending increases, especially on defence. In its role as headmaster of the global economy, the IMF raps Mr Bush's knuckles for being optimistic on its budget projections.

"The budget assumes tight limits on discretionary spending, which may be difficult to realise, especially taking into account increases in defence and security-related outlays and in light of the apparent erosion of fiscal discipline in recent years," the IMF says.

The criticism does not stop there. The IMF berates the Bush administration for undermining America's leadership role in trade liberalisation through its unilateral tariff increases on steel imports and the subsidies contained in the recent farm bill.

(SNIP)

It is just as well Mr Bush has the revered Mr Greenspan in charge at the Fed. He will do his utmost to prevent the American economy from tipping into recession. But with rates so low, his margin for manoeuvre is limited. If rates come down but fail to lift the economy, Mr Greenspan will find himself in the unenviable position of what economists describe as "pushing on a string".

"What will another 25 basis points achieve? Sensitivity to low rates is subject to diminishing returns," says Michael Metcalfe, economist with State Street Bank. "The chances of a double-dip recession are greater now."

With monetary policy running into a dead end, fiscal policy - government spending - is also running up against its limits because of the growing budget deficits. The one remaining option, says Mr Metcalfe, is to allow the dollar to fall, which the administration has been doing. A lower dollar will boost exports, bolster US company profits and provide support for the stock markets.

That is fine as long as the decline in the greenback is gradual, but managing currency movements is one of the most difficult things to accomplish as currencies have a tendency to overshoot wildly, so this policy carries substantial risks.

But the biggest risk of all may be war. Last time, the US and its allies made short work of Iraq in what Saddam Hussein grandly declared the mother of all battles. It was nothing of the sort but a complete rout. Saddam would be fighting for his very survival this time, however, and his most loyal troops can be expected to put up stiffer resistance. The Iraqi dictator might want to create as much havoc as he can as he goes down, striking out at America's key allies in the region, Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Any move against Saudi Arabia could be particularly destabilising as it risks pushing up oil prices - a sure recipe for another recession.

3//The Dawn 06 August 2002 Tuesday 26 Jamadi-ul-Awwal 1423
http://www.dawn.com/2002/08/06/top18.htm

UK MOVE SHOWS RAID ON IRAQ IMMINENT
By Amanullah Ghilzai

LONDON, Aug 5: As a strongest signal Britain is preparing for war against Iraq the navy's flagship fighter aircraft carrier Ark Royal is to sail for the Mediterranean next month, with 1,300 crew and a full complement of Harrier jets and helicopters, is to leave the port of Portsmouth in five weeks time accompanied by a destroyer.

But the government says the ship will take part in what it calls a "long-planned" exercise, and the navy says there are no plans to sail on to the Gulf.

But analysts say the presence of the Ark Royal so close to the Middle East could be part of the plan to topple Saddam Hussain through US-led military action.

The government of Prime Minister Tony Blair is under increased pressure to recall parliament so that MPs could discuss the possibility of military action.

The public opinion in the UK seems to be very much divided on a possible military action against Iraq. The signs are that this time, it would be extremely difficult for Britain to take part in an attack on Iraq.

4//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting August 6, 2002
http://www.stratfor.com/

BRITAIN MOVES TO BRING LIBYA ON BOARD

Britain sent a senior-level envoy to Libya Aug. 6 in a bid to secure Tripoli's cooperation in the U.S. war against terrorism and other Middle Eastern issues. Libya may increase its assistance to the West in a bid to end its isolation
(Subscriber article, headline only available)

5//The Philippine Daily Inquirer Wednesday Aug. 07, 2002,
http://www.inq7.net/nat/2002/aug/07/nat_2-1.htm

US FUNDS TO BE USED IN WAR ON COMMUNIST GUERRILLAS

By Carlito Pablo and Martin P. Marfil
Inquirer News Service
Posted: 11:49 PM (Manila Time) | Aug. 06, 2002

More soldiers, militiamen eyed

NEARLY half of the 55 million dollars that the United States is giving in an anti-terrorism package will be used in the fight against communist insurgency, Defense Secretary Angelo Reyes said Tuesday.

Reyes disclosed the plan after President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo ordered the Department of National Defense and the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Monday to move troops from areas influenced by the Abu Sayyaf bandit group in Mindanao to places where the communist-led New People's Army (NPA) operates.

Filipino commandos trained by American forces during the recently concluded Balikatan 02-1 exercise in Mindanao will be unleashed against the 11,500-member communist New People's Army.

But the AFP says commandos are not enough.

AFP chief of staff General Roy Cimatu said the Department of National Defense would ask Congress to approve recruitment of 7,000 new soldiers and 15,000 government-armed militiamen to help the regular forces deny the NPA sanctuaries and prevent them from extorting money from businesses. Officials consider the NPA an even more serious threat to national security than the Abu Sayyaf, which for the past two years had kidnapped foreign tourists and Christian missionaries for ransom.

Reyes said 25 million dollars would be used to put up, train, and equip elite Light Reaction Companies (LRCs) to fight the NPA, the armed wing of the Communist Party of the Philippines that is on the US list of terrorist organizations.

(SNIP)

Reyes said he was due to leave for Washington in the next few days to discuss with US officials the country's "shopping list" in connection with the 55-million-dollar aid.

He said he would also discuss with US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld a "broad range" of military and security issues.

(MORE)

6//Mainichi Daily News Aug. 6, 2002
http://mdn.mainichi.co.jp/news/20020806p2a00m0dm023001c.html

TOP SECRET DEFENSE FORCE DATA HELD FOR RANSOM
(Mainichi Shimbun)

Highly classified data in the Defense Agency computer network system linking air and ground forces has been leaked, government officials admitted Tuesday.

The agency was rocked Monday night after it was informed by Fujitsu Ltd., which constructed the system, that a blueprint of the network as well as Internet protocol (IP) addresses of terminals used in the agency and the Self-Defense Forces (SDF), were leaked. An unidentified group of men who obtained the data are demanding Fujitsu buy back the information for an undisclosed sum of money.

Since the data shown by the men included information only held by Fujitsu, the agency has concluded that the leak originated from the electronics giant.

(SNIP)

Defense Agency officials said data exchanged through the network includes the movement of supplies and some classified information. All data is encoded, officials added.

Fujitsu officials said a group of men contacted them several times since the end of June to early July. "We received the data from Fujitsu employees. We recommend you to buy it if you don't want this to end up in the wrong hands," one of the men reportedly said. The group also hinted that they are prepared to sell the data to North Korea.

Fujitsu rejected their demands and has launched an inquiry into the matter. However, they have been unable to find out how the data was leaked since any of some 200 employees of the electronic company and its 32 subcontractors who took part in the development of the network could have obtained the data.

(MORE)

* * *

© 2002, Gloria R. Lalumia
insight@zianet.com

Updated listings of Radio for Progressives on the internet at http://www.zianet.com/insightanalytical

* * *