World Media Watch for July 26, 2002

BUZZFLASH NOTE: Once again, these are the views and perspectives of the individual papers, not of BuzzFlash or Gloria. They offer BuzzFlash readers a way of reading what other nations are saying about the crisis, whether we like it or not. We repeat: This is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

Vacation Notice! World Media Watch will be on hiatus from Monday, July 29, until Monday August 5, 2002.

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1//Pravda, Russia--IRAQ: PHASE ONE UNDER WAY (Military strategists in Washington have leaked to the press reports that the first strike would be with special forces, possibly Delta Force and CIA operationals, together with British SAS and SBS, setting up blockades along Iraq's road arteries, while aircraft carried out punitive missions and advanced bases were set up in Mosul, in the north and Basra in the south. This, according to Major Charles Heyman, spokesperson for Jane's Information Group, could take place "much sooner than expected", in August or September. These bases would be used in a second phase next Spring with a large invading force of some 250,000 troops liaising with Kurdish and Shi'ite guerrillas.)

2//The Guardian, UK--NO COMMONS VOTE LIKELY ON IRAQ (Asked during his second Downing Street press conference why he has consistently declined to promise such a vote, Mr Blair said: "Because it's important that if we do get to that situation that we follow the precedents there have always been. He continued: "I actually think we are all getting a bit ahead of ourselves on the issue of Iraq. As I have said before, action is not imminent, we are not at the point of decision yet...But when he was asked at one point the time would arrive, the prime minister merely replied: "The right moment is when I judge it to be the right moment.")

3//Sydney Morning Herald, Australia--CLARK'S LABOUR PARTY MAY HAVE TO COURT THE GREENS (The Labour Prime Minister, Helen Clark, admitted for the first time on Wednesday that her party was unlikely to win an outright majority and would consider co-operation, if not coalition, with the Greens, a "fringe" party she had earlier pledged to neutralise..."The behaviour of the Greens has tipped over into madness," Miss Clark said. "They are threatening to pull down a progressive government [New Zealand] that is among the most environmentally friendly in the world...")

4//The Independent, UK--MAYOR IN BATTLE TO HALT REVIVAL OF MUSSOLINI (A mayor in northern Italy is struggling to stop his town from becoming a mecca for fascists from all over Europe amid signs that Italian right-wingers are rehabilitating the legacy of Benito Mussolini... Ivo Marcelli the town's left-wing mayor, is alarmed by the influx, but says that Italy's ruling right-wing coalition is turning a blind eye to the illegal glorification of Fascism...Mr Marcelli said he was concerned that the trade was allowed to flourish. "The political direction the police are taking is very worrying," he said.)

5//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong--BALOCHISTAN TRIBES THREATEN PAKISTAN'S GAS RICHES (At a time when the world's media are busy watching developments in Central Asia and the Middle East, a bitter struggle is taking place in the southern Pakistani province of Balochistan between local tribesmen opposed to Western companies exploiting natural gas reserves and the central government in Islamabad.)

6//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting, USA--VENEZUELA: CHAVEZ SECURE FOR NOW, BUT THREATS RISING (After surviving an attempted coup in mid-April, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez likely will not face another military uprising in the near term. Chavez has neutralized his opponents in the armed forces and still has the support of slightly less than a third of the population. However, the economy's continued deterioration poses a much greater threat to Chavez's political survival.)

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1/Pravda 11:00 2002-07-24
http://english.pravda.ru/main/2002/07/24/33055.html

IRAQ: PHASE ONE UNDER WAY
John Ashtead
London, United Kingdom

(Full Text)

Pravda.Ru sources in the Gulf have confirmed that the military build-up by the US Forces has begun, with "tent cities" being built in Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait, while in Washington military sources have confirmed that operations have started.

The new French Foreign Minister, Dominique Villepin, told French diplomats that she expected the military action from the USA against Iraq to come "soon" after a meeting with US National Security Advisor, Condoleeza Rice.

Military strategists in Washington have leaked to the press reports that the first strike would be with special forces, possibly Delta Force and CIA operationals, together with British SAS and SBS, setting up blockades along Iraq's road arteries, while aircraft carried out punitive missions and advanced bases were set up in Mosul, in the north and Basra in the south. This, according to Major Charles Heyman, spokesperson for Jane's Information Group, could take place "much sooner than expected", in August or September.

These bases would be used in a second phase next Spring with a large invading force of some 250,000 troops liaising with Kurdish and Shi'ite guerrillas.

A legitimate basis for such an attack has not yet been declared.

2/The Guardian Thursday July 25, 2002
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/foreignaffairs/story/0,11538,763053,00.html

NO COMMONS VOTE LIKELY ON IRAQ
Staff and agencies

2pm update

Tony Blair today indicated that the House of Commons is unlikely to be given a vote on whether British forces should be involved in any military action against Iraq.

Asked during his second Downing Street press conference why he has consistently declined to promise such a vote, Mr Blair said: "Because it's important that if we do get to that situation that we follow the precedents there have always been.

(SNIP)

He continued: "I actually think we are all getting a bit ahead of ourselves on the issue of Iraq. As I have said before, action is not imminent, we are not at the point of decision yet. "We're not ready yet - it's not the right moment," Mr Blair said.

But when he was asked at one point the time would arrive, the prime minister merely replied: "The right moment is when I judge it to be the right moment."

"And there are many issues to be considered before we are at the point of decision.

"I would simply say to you that if you look at what we did in relation for example to Afghanistan, we consulted the House of Commons very carefully.

"But I am not going to pin myself at this stage to any specific form of consultation."

(SNIP)

The prime minister said the UN had passed resolutions on weapons inspectors was because the Gulf war had revealed a "major problem in relation to weapons of mass destruction".

Those inspectors uncovered "a massive amount of evidence" of a weapons programme, he continued.

"We can publish more evidence later and if it is appropriate we will," Mr Blair said.

"But actually there is already an enormous amount of accumulated evidence of what Iraq was up to."

(SNIP)

Mr Blair said he was sceptical as to whether UN secretary general Kofi Annan's efforts to persuade the Iraqis to readmit weapons inspectors would succeed.

"The omens don't look very good frankly. The issue is, is there any point in reviving those negotiations, I don't know. Because it seems somewhat unlikely that the Iraqis intend to comply with it." Asked how seriously he, as a committed Christian, would take the views of the new archbishop of Canterbury Dr Rowan Williams - who has voiced opposition to military action against Iraq not sanctioned by a fresh UN resolution - Mr Blair indicated he would be relatively relaxed about the comments of the new head of the Anglican church.

Mr Blair said: "He is perfectly entitled to express his views, and why not?"

3//Sydney Morning Herald July 26 2002
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/07/25/1027497382069.html

CLARK'S LABOUR PARTY MAY HAVE TO COURT THE GREENS
By Louise Williams, Herald Correspondent in Auckland

Her political rivals have descended on Auckland's five-star hotels, but New Zealand's Greens co-leader, Jeanette Fitzsimons, is staying with a friend and doing interviews on a packed city bus.

The quietly spoken, grey-haired Ms Fitzsimons has a point to make and a principle to uphold.

Auckland's transport network is woefully inadequate. But the Greens will not build more motorways, as other parties are promising in campaigning for tomorrow's election. They will get people back on upgraded public transport, and on to bicycles.

In the snake pit of New Zealand politics the Greens will be nice to everyone, though it is unlikely other politicians will be nice about the Greens - a measure of the disproportionate power they could hold in a minority Labour government which again may be forced to rely on environmentalists for issues as fundamental as confidence and supply.

The Labour Prime Minister, Helen Clark, admitted for the first time on Wednesday that her party was unlikely to win an outright majority and would consider co-operation, if not coalition, with the Greens, a "fringe" party she had earlier pledged to neutralise.

But the latest polls suggest there is still an outside chance a "grand coalition" of right-wing parties could form government, despite Labour winning the biggest single share of the vote.

(SNIP)

"The behaviour of the Greens has tipped over into madness," Miss Clark said. "They are threatening to pull down a progressive government that is among the most environmentally friendly in the world. In no other country is it seriously contended that organic farming and genetic engineering can't coexist."

Recent polls show Greens support has slipped from 10 to about 7 per cent. Even so they remain a more natural partner for Labour than the smaller Right-wing parties. Labour is understood to be courting the small centrist United Future party, to try to sidestep a clash with the Greens over GM, though United Future could also hand victory to a right-wing coalition.

4//The Independent 25 July 2002 20:34 BDST
http://news.independent.co.uk/europe/story.jsp?story=318126

MAYOR IN BATTLE TO HALT REVIVAL OF MUSSOLINI
By Kate Goldberg in Predappio
Kate Goldberg is a contributor to BBC Radio 4's 'Crossing Continents'

A mayor in northern Italy is struggling to stop his town from becoming a mecca for fascists from all over Europe amid signs that Italian right-wingers are rehabilitating the legacy of Benito Mussolini.

Preadappio, near Bologna, the birthplace and final resting place of il Duce has long been a place of pilgrimage for Mussolini apologists. But more than 100,000 people have visited in the past year with numbers peaking on the anniversaries of Mussolini's birth, death and rise to power.

(SNIP)

Ivo Marcelli the town's left-wing mayor, is alarmed by the influx, but says that Italy's ruling right-wing coalition is turning a blind eye to the illegal glorification of Fascism.

Despite his pleas, sales of Fascist kitsch are booming, and the men in black capes still keep vigil outside Mussolini's tomb. He has lodged complaints with the police and the President, Carlo Azeglio Ciampi, but his protests have fallen on deaf ears. Mr Marcelli said: "Exalting a figure such as Mussolini who created wars and was responsible for oppression is intolerable."

(SNIP)

Mr Marcelli said he was concerned that the trade was allowed to flourish. "The political direction the police are taking is very worrying," he said.

Part of the mayor's election platform was to provide an analysis of Italy's Fascist era and to this end he has opened the house where Mussolini was born to visitors. The aim is to explain Fascism from a historic perspective. He says: "There is currently no political support for honest debate about the Fascist period."

Italy has never prosecuted its worst war criminals. It has never experienced a sense of national guilt and soul-searching over its role in the Second World War.

And with a coalition government that includes the reformed Fascist National Alliance and anti-immigration Northern League parties, some argue that a more forgiving climate towards the extreme right has emerged.

Nationally, Mussolini's former residences are being restored and opened to the public. In Sicily local authorities are campaigning to rename a street after il Duce.

5/Asia Times Online Jul 25, 2002
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/DG25Df01.html

BALOCHISTAN TRIBES THREATEN PAKISTAN'S GAS RICHES
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - At a time when the world's media are busy watching developments in Central Asia and the Middle East, a bitter struggle is taking place in the southern Pakistani province of Balochistan between local tribesmen opposed to Western companies exploiting natural gas reserves and the central government in Islamabad.

The issue came to a head recently, boiling over into a 10-day armed standoff between the Pakistani armed forces and the tribals. Dialogue has now resumed, but sources close to the tribal chiefs say that the most powerful chief and former chief minister of Balochistan, Nawab Akber Bugti, is not prepared to abandon his opposition to Western exploration companies operating in the province, fearing that they will ultimately take over control of his land.

The tribes in Balochistan have long agitated for autonomous status, or even an independent Balochistan state, and they happen to be located amid Pakistan's most plentiful gas reserves. A key deep-sea port is being developed with Chinese assistance at Gawadar in southwest Balochistan on the shores of the Arabian Sea. And to further add to the region's strategic value, important cross-national oil pipelines are planned to traverse the state.

(SNIP)

The military regime of President General Pervez Musharraf therefore decided to open these areas for exploration, but they are controlled by the Bugti, Mari and Mengal tribes, which have traditionally been at the heart of rebellion.

All three tribes were pro-USSR during the Cold War, and in the early 1970s they revolted against the central government. Their insurrection was brutally stamped out by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto's government. Iran also helped Islamabad to quell discontent because the rebellion aimed to establish a Balochistan state beyond Pakistan's borders, including areas of Iran and Afghanistan.

Now, though, the situation has changed somewhat. It is believed that Baloch tribes are in contact with the administration across the border in eastern Iran in Zahadan province, and through it they are in contact with the Tehran government, which is keeping a close eye on developments in Balochistan.

In mid-2000, Pakistan said that it would permit a natural gas pipeline linking Iran's massive reserves to rival India across Pakistani territory. Pakistan would earn transit fees and also would be able to purchase gas from the pipeline as it needed. While Iran and Pakistan have shown great interest in the project, India has been reluctant to move forward as long as political and military tensions with Pakistan over Kashmir persist, although a feasibility study is under way. Another possible natural gas pipeline would link the Caspian Sea gas-rich Turkmenistan with Pakistan via Afghanistan

These proposed pipelines, plus the development of Gawadar into a deep 27-berth port that would accommodate both large tankers and military vessels, have severely irked the tribes in Balochistan, as has the presence of more than 20 exploration companies - mostly British and American - active in the region.

(SNIP)

Relevant authorities and officials of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources subsequently held meetings with tribal elders through the Balochistan state government, and a package was hammered out.

The Rs890 million (US$15 million) package included several measures to encourage the involvement of local as well as foreign companies in exploration activities, and provisions for the relocation of the Mari, Bugti and Mengal tribes people to more secure areas with proper facilities and social welfare facilities.

And last month an agreement was signed in Quetta by the director-general of Petroleum Concessions, G A Sabri, the heads of OGDCL and PPL and a representative of Nawab. The low-profile ceremony, sources said, was also witnessed by Nawab himself and the secretary for petroleum affairs, M Abdullah Yusuf.

Under the accord Nawab would ensure the security of oil and gas exploration activities in Balochistan, as well as the protection of existing installations. In return for guaranteeing security, the PPL and the OGDCL would recruit as many as many as 150 Bugtis at the Uch and Sui fields. The federal government has now asked Nawab to send a list of candidates he wants recruited so that it can be passed on to the companies.

(SNIP)

However, it now appears that Nawab has reversed his position, and despite his pledges to the federal government he has threatened anyone coming to his district with death. This pushed the government into a massive deployment of Frontier Constabulary and Pakistan army troops in the area. In retaliation, the Bugti tribes mobilized their forces, and the 10-day standoff ensued.

Dialogue has resumed and the government has constituted a new body to negotiate terms and conditions with Nawab, who sources say is adamant that he will never allow US or British companies to operate in his region, fearing that they will boot him off the land and deny his tribe their mineral resources.

Chinese and Iranian companies, however, will be allowed access to the area. The sources say that the latest revolt is likely to last a long time. Exploration companies will be the first target, Gawadar Sea port, which would be the terminus of the Caspian Sea pipeline, would be the next target.

And Balochistan, a huge land rich in oil and gas resources and with a small population spread in Afghanistan Iran and Pakistan, could become a new focal point in regional and international disputes.

6//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting 25 July 2002
http://www.stratfor.com/fib/topStory_view.php?ID=205452

VENEZUELA: CHAVEZ SECURE FOR NOW, BUT THREATS RISING
Summary

After surviving an attempted coup in mid-April, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez likely will not face another military uprising in the near term. Chavez has neutralized his opponents in the armed forces and still has the support of slightly less than a third of the population. However, the economy's continued deterioration poses a much greater threat to Chavez's political survival.

Analysis

Three months after a brief military rebellion nearly toppled his government, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has succeeded in neutralizing his opponents within the National Armed Forces (FAN). Meanwhile, the anti-Chavez civilian political opposition is disarticulated and in need of unifying charismatic leaders. As a result, Chavez is unlikely to be forcibly ousted from the presidency this year by another military coup.

With the traditional August summer holidays set to begin in less than a week, Venezuela also will not likely experience more large-scale street protests over the next four to eight weeks. However, the country's crisis is far from over. Political tensions have only slightly subsided, the economy's slowdown is just starting to be felt by the general population and the struggle to force Chavez's resignation now has moved from the country's streets and military garrisons to the Supreme Court and National Assembly.

(SNIP)

Meanwhile, a recent political report prepared for the ruling Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) party warns that Miquilena's new organization is conspiring with the opposition Democratic Action party to launch a series of street protests, government work slowdowns and strikes in September aimed at forcing Chavez's resignation. The MVR's report also says that Chavez faces growing pressure from efforts in the Supreme Court and National Assembly to secure his impeachment.

(SNIP)

As the economy continues to weaken and unemployment climbs in an inflationary environment, poor Venezuelans who still support Chavez could turn against him for failing to deliver on his pledge to improve living standards. In fact, many from this demographic have already crossed over to the opposition. Observers at a July 11 anti-Chavez march, which attracted an estimated 700,000 people, said that for the first time since such protest marches started last December, at least a third of the demonstrators were visibly poor Venezuelans.

If Chavez's remaining popular support continues to erode in the coming months, it is also likely that his remaining political and military support will also vanish. This would leave Chavez in the same position former President Carlos Andres Perez faced a decade ago.

Perez survived two coup attempts in 1992, including one led by Chavez, but in early 1993 he was impeached on corruption charges and forced to resign after his popularity dropped to only 5 percent. If Chavez's popularity sinks that low, it is likely that he also will lose the presidency, as the political and judicial institutions he still controls turn against him as they did against Perez.

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© 2002, Gloria R. Lalumia
insight@zianet.com

More at http://www.zianet.com/insightanalytical

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