World Media Watch for July 19, 2002

BUZZFLASH NOTE: Once again, these are the views and perspectives of the individual papers, not of BuzzFlash or Gloria. They offer BuzzFlash readers a way of reading what other nations are saying about the crisis, whether we like it or not. We repeat: This is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

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1//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting, USA--U.S. RESTOCKING ATTACK MUNITIONS MAY PRESAGE IRAQ CAMPAIGN (A serious shortage in the number of the Pentagon's Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) bombs may have helped postpone an attack on Iraq earlier this year, the Associated Press reported July 15. But now production of the GPS-guided smart bombs is accelerating, and the Pentagon should have enough stockpiles to attack Iraq by late this year should the order come from the White House.)

2//The Khaleej Times, United Arab Emirates--IRANIAN CLERIC CALLS FOR MASSIVE TURNOUT IN ANTI-US PROTESTS (Prominent Iranian cleric Ayatollah Jalaledin Taheri, whose fiery criticism of the state sparked nation-wide political tension, called on Iranians to protest on Friday against the United States, press reports on Thursday...In his letter, Taheri criticised the state and its dominant conservative clergy, who accept no authority but that of Khamenei...During a speech last week, following Taheri's resignation and anti-clerical attacks, US President George W Bush urged Tehran to abandon "uncompromising, destructive policies," promising that a reforming, modernising Iran would have "no better friend" than the United States.)

3//The Khaleej Times, United Arab Emirates--US WAGING "PSYCHOLOGICAL WAR" AGAINST IRAN: RAFSANJANI (Iran's media and officials have since been calling for mass protests against the United States. In a 10-minute commentary on Thursday, state television said the anti-American rally would "prove" the people's "unity in the face of plots and arrogance against our revolution." It warned that "enemies are looking to sow discord between the regime and the people".)

4//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong--OSAMA AT LARGE, 5: INTELLIGENCE MATTERS (American so-called intelligence is spreading everywhere in the tribal areas - especially in the ultra-sensitive Waziristan agency, and also in Khyber agency, operating with the Pakistani army and the Pakistani Frontier Corps. But one wonders whether the deadly combination of summer heat, endless kebabs, endless cups of green tea, no Bud light and no babes is actually sapping American will... George Joffe, a researcher from the Center of International Studies in Cambridge, England recently warned...American national interests are being justified on a "moral" basis - and nobody is paying any attention to the deep causes of "international terrorism". According to Joffe, "Whatever he engineers short term, [President George W] Bush risks long term to amplify the instability he is committed to erase.")

5//allAfrica.com, USA/Africa--REGION'S CHILDREN AT RISK (The agencies have appealed for US $614 million to respond to the humanitarian crisis in six countries, where nearly 13 million people have been identified as being "on the very edge of survival as the region struggles with shortages of food not seen since the drought of 1992"...UNICEF's Bellamy pointed out that about 2.4 million of the six million children affected are under the age of five, meaning they are especially vulnerable to malnutrition and disease. "This is much larger than just a food crisis," Bellamy said. "It's also a water crisis, a health crisis, an education crisis. All of this is taking place in an environment ravaged by AIDS, and the various crises are feeding each other.")

6//TheNewsMexico.com, Mexico--PRI LEADERSHIP IN STATE OF MEXICO DON MILITARY FATIGUES AHEAD OF ELECTIONS (Pastor is the president of the former-ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) in the State of Mexico, trying to whip up a militant spirit in his party's ranks ahead of the crucial 2003 elections. His campaign style has been compared to those of Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini. "I want this to be a message to party members: we are soldiers in battle," Pastor told Reforma daily. "(The) Nazi and Fascist parties, they succeeded in awakening the consciences of people." He added, "In the end, (the totalitarian) parties committed an error in violating fundamental rights...but our party wants to use (these tactics) to fight for social justice.")

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1//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting 17 July 2002
http://www.stratfor.com/fib/topStory_view.php?ID=205325

U.S. RESTOCKING ATTACK MUNITIONS MAY PRESAGE IRAQ CAMPAIGN

A serious shortage in the number of the Pentagon's Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) bombs may have helped postpone an attack on Iraq earlier this year, the Associated Press reported July 15. But now production of the GPS-guided smart bombs is accelerating, and the Pentagon should have enough stockpiles to attack Iraq by late this year should the order come from the White House.

A JDAM is no more than a package of global positioning sensors and tailfins -- costing roughly $20,000 altogether -- attached to an unguided missile. Far less expensive than a laser-guided bomb and able to operate in clouds and smoke, JDAMs went from being a novelty in the 1999 Kosovo war to a centerpiece of the Afghan campaign. More than 25 percent of the 17,000 pieces of ordnance dropped on Afghanistan were JDAMs.

But the 5,000 or so JDAMs used during that campaign represented nearly half of the Pentagon's stockpile. As the Afghan war wound down, the shortage became a strong argument for delaying an attack on Iraq.

Estimates vary, but a campaign against Iraq would likely require double or triple the amount of JDAMs as the Afghan war, somewhere between 10,000 to 15,000 bombs.

(SNIP)

But support from the Pentagon is pushing JDAM manufacturers to speed production, which they appeared to do in May. JDAM makers are now pumping out nearly 1,500 bomb kits a month and are planning to expand to 2,000 per month by late this year, the Associated Press reported.

(SNIP)

This means an attack on Iraq is possible by the end of the year, at least as far as JDAM supplies are concerned. Earlier reports in the Wall Street Journal noted a shortage of Hellfire anti-tank missiles as well, but no recent information has surfaced.

It is interesting that this information was released at all. Although not on the level of a state secret, the numbers available in the AP article make it possible to get a fair idea of U.S. JDAM levels, something that many governments -- including Iraq -- would certainly find useful.

This is information the U.S. government might wish to keep a tighter lid on ahead of a possible U.S. attack. Most likely, the leaks were intentional, meant to warn and intimidate the Iraqi government.

**The following two stories from The Khaleej Times appear because they are closely related.

2//The Khaleej Times
http://www.khaleejtimes.co.ae/middleeast.htm#storyl

IRANIAN CLERIC CALLS FOR MASSIVE TURNOUT IN ANTI-US PROTESTS

TEHRAN - Prominent Iranian cleric Ayatollah Jalaledin Taheri, whose fiery criticism of the state sparked nation-wide political tension, called on Iranians to protest on Friday against the United States, press reports on Thursday.

"All Iranians should participate in anti-American protests" to be held Friday nationwide, the 76-year-old cleric, who is close to moderate President Mohammad Khatami, said in a letter printed in Thursday's reformist press. In his letter, Taheri also voiced his support for reforms. "To solve the problems of which I have spoken and that which was said in the leader's response, one should continue on the path of reforms," Taheri said referring to his resignation letter last week and supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's response.

In his letter, Taheri criticised the state and its dominant conservative clergy, who accept no authority but that of Khamenei...During a speech last week, following Taheri's resignation and anti-clerical attacks, US President George W Bush urged Tehran to abandon "uncompromising, destructive policies," promising that a reforming, modernising Iran would have "no better friend" than the United States. - AFP

3//The Khaleej Times 18 July 2002. 8 Jamadi Al Awwal, 1423.
http://www.khaleejtimes.co.ae/middleeast.htm#storyl

US WAGING "PSYCHOLOGICAL WAR" AGAINST IRAN: RAFSANJANI

TEHRAN - Former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani accused US President George W. Bush of waging a "psychological war" against Iran by claiming that the people of the Islamic republic were pro-American.

"This time, the US president has launched a psychological war against our revolution and there is no better response" than a massive turnout at an anti-US rally, Rafsanjani said, quoted by state television. The influential former president said "claims by US officials that the Iranian people support the United States" were "an outright lie". "The Americans want to defend their interests, and are looking to carry out their own plots," charged Rafsanjani, who is considered close to Iran's powerful conservative camp.

Referring to the rally planned for Friday, Rafsanjani said such demonstrations were "a small price to pay but will have many effects for the revolution and prevent US officials from becoming even more audacious". In a televised address directed at ordinary Iranians last Sunday, Bush pledged Washington would give its full support to a more modern, democratic regime in Tehran.

(SNIP)

A reforming, modernizing Iran would have "no better friend" than the United States, said Bush. Iran's media and officials have since been calling for mass protests against the United States. In a 10-minute commentary on Thursday, state television said the anti-American rally would "prove" the people's "unity in the face of plots and arrogance against our revolution."

It warned that "enemies are looking to sow discord between the regime and the people". Tehran and Washington severed ties after the 1979 seizure of the US embassy in Iran. Attempts at rapprochement have been dogged by fierce resentment in the Islamic republic over US support for Israel. - AFP

4//Asia Times Online July 19, 2002
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/DG19Ak01.html

THE ROVING EYE
OSAMA AT LARGE, 5: INTELLIGENCE MATTERS
By Pepe Escobar

...While intelligence services in Europe keep nabbing the odd presumed al-Qaeda member, in Afghanistan and the tribal areas of Pakistan the story is completely different. Another e-mail from a key intelligence-related source inside Pakistan once more sends the message: "The new theater of war is here." The Pentagon keeps hinting almost on a daily basis at the presence of "international terrorists" in the tribal areas. But a combination of elite American soldiers, ultra-high-tech aerial surveillance and close cooperation between the FBI and the Pentagon has yielded absolutely no concrete intelligence so far on the whereabouts of bin Laden, Taliban leader Mullah Omar and other senior al-Qaeda leadership.

According to the Pakistani source, Afghans in Kabul are convinced that al-Qaeda was behind the assassination of Afghan vice-president Haji Qadir, the powerful former Pashtun governor of Nangarhar province and brother of the famous mujahideen Abdul Haq, trapped and killed by the Taliban last November. Even Karim Khalili, one of the other Afghan vice-presidents, said on the record that "we cannot reject al-Qaeda's role". Afghan Defense Minister General Fahim and Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah - both Tajiks - have already stated that unspecified "terrorists" did it.

The investigation in Kabul is being run by Hamid Karzai's government in conjunction with the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). According to the Pakistani source, Pashtuns in the tribal areas don't believe that this will be a neutral investigation: they believe that the team will do everything in its power to implicate al-Qaeda, even without evidence.

Meanwhile, everybody and his neighbor keeps guessing the whereabouts of bin Laden - from the editor of the London-based Al Quds Al-Arabi newspaper, Abdel Bari Atwan, to the president of Germany's Foreign Intelligence Service (BND), August Hanning. Bin Laden may be "somewhere along the Afghan-Pakistani border", according to Hanning. According to Asia Times Online's sources, he may actually be hidden in the bowels of a big Pakistani city. American so-called intelligence is spreading everywhere in the tribal areas - especially in the ultra-sensitive Waziristan agency, and also in Khyber agency, operating with the Pakistani army and the Pakistani Frontier Corps. But one wonders whether the deadly combination of summer heat, endless kebabs, endless cups of green tea, no Bud light and no babes is actually sapping American will.

(SNIP)

George Joffe, a researcher from the Center of International Studies in Cambridge, England recently warned in a seminar in Paris that "the Americans are bungling up causes and effects". American national interests are being justified on a "moral" basis - and nobody is paying any attention to the deep causes of "international terrorism". According to Joffe, "Whatever he engineers short term, [President George W] Bush risks long term to amplify the instability he is committed to erase."

That's exactly what bin Laden is betting on. His operatives seem to have suggested to Al Quds Al-Arabi newspaper that they would soon strike again at the US to capitalize on Arab resentment and anger concerning unlimited American support for Israel and the Pentagon's plans to topple Saddam Hussein in Iraq. Joffe, in Europe, agrees: an attack on Iraq would be "the ideal fuel to increase anger, and this is exactly what al-Qaeda wants. Its actions would be even more justified than before September 11. So we are working against our own interests, while we should be convincing Muslim populations not to follow bin Laden."

As American intelligence finds nothing in the tribal areas, al-Qaeda prepares another hit. We have been warned: bin Laden will be back, on video, on Al Jazeera. But, as his operatives stressed, "only when he has something to discuss".

5//allAfrica.com Posted to the web July 18, 2002
http://allafrica.com/stories/200207180685.html

REGION'S CHILDREN AT RISK
UN Integrated Regional Information Networks
July 18, 2002

Children account for more than half of the 12.8 million people in Southern Africa threatened by starvation, and related diseases such as measles, cholera and HIV/AIDS.

This emerged on Wednesday when the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) launched an inter-agency consolidated appeal for the drought hit region.

The agencies have appealed for US $614 million to respond to the humanitarian crisis in six countries, where nearly 13 million people have been identified as being "on the very edge of survival as the region struggles with shortages of food not seen since the drought of 1992".

The six countries in need of assistance are Lesotho, Swaziland, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

The UN Children's Fund (UNICEF) has underlined the need for a speedy donor response to the appeal. UNICEF said more than six million children are at immediate risk in the region, "due to a crippling combination of natural and man-made crises".

The aid agency wants to keep children in school by expanding school-lunch programmes in conjunction with the World Food Programme (WFP). It also aims to "protect children from harsh labour or sexual exploitation by supporting community coping mechanisms, thus minimising the pressure on families to put children to work," a UNICEF statement said.

"We cannot overstate what's at stake here," Carol Bellamy, Executive Director of UNICEF was quoted as saying. "Without major and immediate funding from around the world, we just won't get the job done. These children need our help, and they need it now."

UNICEF had already begun establishing therapeutic feeding centres for severely malnourished children in all six countries. The organisation has also launched measles immunisation and vitamin A campaigns.

The UN consolidated appeal said special consideration would be given to the most vulnerable groups, including children, the elderly, female-headed households and people living with HIV/AIDS.

"High levels of chronic malnutrition among children under five characterised the nutritional situation in the region. As a result, in Malawi for example, 49 percent of children are stunted," the report said. Chronic malnutrition, impairing physical and intellectual development, "once it sets in" was largely irreversible.

Food commodities needed to be fortified to negate vitamin and mineral deficiencies. Access to clean water was also flagged as crucial, as poor sanitary practices could lead to outbreaks of diarrhoeal diseases such as cholera, the UN appeal said.

UNICEF's Bellamy pointed out that about 2.4 million of the six million children affected are under the age of five, meaning they are especially vulnerable to malnutrition and disease.

"This is much larger than just a food crisis," Bellamy said. "It's also a water crisis, a health crisis, an education crisis. All of this is taking place in an environment ravaged by AIDS, and the various crises are feeding each other."

(MORE)

6//TheNewsMexico.com 7/18/2002
http://www.thenewsmexico.com/noticia.asp?id=30692

PRI LEADERSHIP IN STATE OF MEXICO DON MILITARY FATIGUES AHEAD OF ELECTIONS

Isidro Pastor wears green army fatigues, likes to be called "commander" and is ready to go to war.

However, he is not the leader of a military battalion. Pastor is the president of the former-ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) in the State of Mexico, trying to whip up a militant spirit in his party's ranks ahead of the crucial 2003 elections.

His campaign style has been compared to those of Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini.

"I want this to be a message to party members: we are soldiers in battle," Pastor told Reforma daily. "(The) Nazi and Fascist parties, they succeeded in awakening the consciences of people."

He added, "In the end, (the totalitarian) parties committed an error in violating fundamental rights...but our party wants to use (these tactics) to fight for social justice."

Besides being a PRI stronghold, the State of Mexico is the most populous in the country and will have more seats up for grabs next year than any other state, with 124 mayorships and 75 legislative seats in the state assembly.

Pastor said the military style political campaign is not aimed at imposing authoritarian views on voters, but rather to unite a once invincible party that has fallen on hard times.

After ruling the country uninterrupted for 71 years, the PRI lost the 2000 elections to President Vicente Fox's conservative National Action Party (PAN).

Earlier this year, the PRI held its first internal democratic elections, which were marred by widespread allegations of fraud. The top two candidates for the leadership ended up in a virtual tie and each threatened to break up the party unless given the top spot.

(MORE)

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© 2002, Gloria R. Lalumia
insight@zianet.com

More at http://www.zianet.com/insightanalytical

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