World Media Watch for June 28, 2002

BUZZFLASH NOTE: Once again, these are the views and perspectives of the individual papers, not of BuzzFlash or Gloria. They offer BuzzFlash readers a way of reading what other nations are saying about the crisis, whether we like it or not. We repeat: This is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

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//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong--CASPIAN PIPELINE PLAN DRAWS STRONG PROTEST (Sixty-four mainly European non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are demanding that British Petroleum (BP) meet tough conditions on a proposed multibillion-dollar Caspian oil and gas pipeline before it receives any financing from public agencies. Potential backers of the Baku-to-Ceyhan pipeline include the World Bank and national export credit agencies. BP, which leads a consortium of oil companies that includes Italy's Eni, Statoil of Norway, and California-based Unocal, has said it will need hundreds of millions of dollars in what its chief executive, Sir John Browne, referred to as "free public money" to help finance the construction of the US$3 billion pipeline.)

//World Press Review Online, NY, USA--LEBANON'S FINANCIAL CRISIS: A RECIPE FOR DISASTER? (If Lebanon were to fall into chaos, then the government's control over its southern border with Israel would become even more slender. Already, Hezbullah administers many of the civil functions of daily life in southern Lebanon, and many other armed insurgents are known to be active in the region. As Israeli tanks rolled into the West Bank this past spring, Hezbullah traded fire with Israeli forces along Lebanon's border with Israel. Other Palestinian factions are eager to re-open the "Southern Front," as it has become known in the Arab press, but have shied away from doing so out of deference to Hezbullah. But there is no guarantee that this status quo can be maintained in the long run.)

//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting, USA--COLOMBIA: NEXT PRESIDENT MAY HIT ROADBLOCK IN SEEKING U.S. AID (During a three-day trip last week to Washington, D.C., Colombian President-elect Alvaro Uribe Velez reportedly won the Bush administration's assurances of more military and economic support to help his government battle guerrillas, paramilitaries and drug traffickers. However, Colombia's next president stumbled badly in a closed-door meeting with 20 Republican members of the House of Representative's Drug Task Force. According to congressional sources, Uribe indicated during the meeting that longtime friend and political ally Pedro Juan Moreno, suspected by U.S. officials of involvement in the narcotics trade, would play an important role in his government... The unhappy outcome of Uribe's recent meeting with Republican congressional leaders also revealed some realities that Bush will confront as he seeks expanded U.S. military aid for Colombia.)

//allAfrica.com, USA/AFRICA--AFRICA IS ON EVERYONE'S LIPS AT G-8, BUT IS THERE SUBSTANCE BEHIND THE WORDS? (At the center of "Africa Day" in Kananaskis is Nepad - the New Partnership for Africa's Development, a development plan shaped in Africa that aims to attract some US$64bn in investment from wealthy nations in return for pledges of adherence to democratic principles, human rights and reform of economic structures and practices...But from it's inception, Nepad has been criticized inside and outside of Africa as a top-down effort that ignores civil society even as it lays claim to being committed to "good governance." Last month the Post newspaper of Zambia quoted academician Akashambatwa Mbikusita-Lewanika as calling Nepad "nothing much beyond a more sophisticated continuation of a partnership that could be likened to that between a rough and socially insensitive profit motivated Western capitalist, and a docile, economically disadvantaged exploited African horse.") ***NOTE: Nepad was adopted Thursday- The Toronto Star, http://www.Thestar.com "Canadian officials, however, failed to get consensus from the leaders to pledge that half of the $12 billion (U.S.) in new foreign aid promised in March would be used directly in Africa. In a statement, G-8 leaders agreed that the $12 billion "could be directed to African nations that govern justly" but left it to the individual countries to decide how to allocate the cash. Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain, Jacques Chirac of France, Gerhard Schroeder of Germany and Silvio Berlusconi of Italy had reportedly been in favour of the plan."

//The Guardian, UK--BEWARE SLEEPING TIGERS (The departure of south-east Asia's 'big five' authoritarian leaders is welcome but they leave behind a political vacuum.... But unless the region finds a figure, or better still figures, to rally behind soon, the repercussions could be such that the murmuring for a return to the likes of Dr Mahathir, Suharto, Marcos et al could easily turn into a clamour.)

//The Japan Times, JAPAN-NEWS HUNGRY TV VIEWERS FIGHTING FOR ENGLISH SERVICE (I must confess that I keep it on nearly 24 hours a day at work and at home, although I stumbled upon it purely by accident. It's surely the best kept secret in Japan. Apparently Foxnews is scheduled to go off the air at the end of July unless they can get more subscribers and or companies to place ads on the channel, which to date has none.)

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//Asia Times Online June 28, 2002
http://www.atimes.com/c-asia/DF28Ag02.html

CASPIAN PIPELINE PLAN DRAWS STRONG PROTEST
By Jim Lobe, Inter Press Service

WASHINGTON - Sixty-four mainly European non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are demanding that British Petroleum (BP) meet tough conditions on a proposed multibillion-dollar Caspian oil and gas pipeline before it receives any financing from public agencies.

Potential backers of the Baku-to-Ceyhan pipeline include the World Bank and national export credit agencies. BP, which leads a consortium of oil companies that includes Italy's Eni, Statoil of Norway, and California-based Unocal, has said it will need hundreds of millions of dollars in what its chief executive, Sir John Browne, referred to as "free public money" to help finance the construction of the US$3 billion pipeline.

"We believe that the use of 'free public money' cannot be justifiable unless the project is able to clearly demonstrate [the] positive local and regional development impacts associated with the project over the next 30 years, " the NGOs said in a letter on Tuesday.

The three-page letter and a longer memorandum were sent to World Bank president James Wolfensohn as well as the directors of the European Investment Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the US Export Import Bank, the US Overseas Private Investment Corp and the Japan Bank for International Cooperation.

(SNIP)

The project has been assailed not only for its redundancy given existing routes, but also because it will travel through areas that have seen considerable political and ethnic conflict over the past decade.

In the early 1990s, Azerbaijan and Armenia fought a bloody war whose final resolution continues to elude US and Russian mediators. The proposed pipeline at one point runs little more than 10km from their common border. In March, Washington announced that it would soon provide military aid to Azerbaijan's navy, presumably to protect its claim to a sector of the Caspian Sea also claimed by Iran.

Georgia, meanwhile, remains home to at least three ethnic insurgencies, two of which have been backed by Russia at various times. The third, in the Pankisi Gorge close to Chechnya, has become a major target of Bush's war on terror, in whose name Washington last month sent more than 100 Special Operations Forces to train Georgia's army.

Finally, southeastern Turkey is the traditional homeland of that country's restive Kurdish population, which has a long history of armed resistance to Turkish rule.

"This pipeline would militarize a corridor running from the Caspian to the Mediterranean," said Kerim Yildiz of the London-based Kurdish Human Rights Project, one of the letter's signers. "This could threaten the fragile ceasefire in the Kurdish region through which the pipeline will pass."

But the security risk is only one of a series of concerns raised by the NGOs, some of which took part in a visit to villages along the pipeline route in Azerbaijan and Georgia this month.

"We are concerned that the pipeline will bring few benefits to poorer people and could exacerbate tensions in the region," said the groups, which are led by Friends of the Earth (FoE) International and a dozen of its national affiliates.

The NGO delegation, which included representatives from the United States, Italy, Britain, Ukraine and Georgia, found that the local people were very concerned about their future in light of BP's plans.

(MORE)

//World Press Review Online June 27, 2002
http://www.worldpress.org/Mideast/613.cfm

The Weakest Link
LEBANON'S FINANCIAL CRISIS: A RECIPE FOR DISASTER?

Abeer El-Gazzawi
World Press Review correspondent
Beirut, Lebanon
June 24, 2002

Today, a Lebanese financial crisis is no longer a probability; it is a fact. As Lebanon watches its debts mount, the conflict in the Middle East continues to rage, leading international investors, who might otherwise step in to provide the economy with a much-needed influx of cash, to remain wary of the country. If something is not done soon, analysts fear, Lebanon will sink beneath a crushing burden of foreign debt, with potentially dire political consequences for the region.

Between 1993 and 2001, Lebanon's net debt increased by 646 percent, driving the country's debt-to-GDP spread to 168 percent. Numbers like this have led specialists like Navaid Farooq, a credit analyst at Standard and Poor's, to wonder whether Lebanon could pay its bills if it wanted to. The government, Farooq and his peers caution, must act quickly to reverse this trend in time. "Unless the government implements a credible fiscal program soon, an [imposed] restructuring of public debt will become increasingly likely," Farooq warns. A public debt of just over half of GDP proved too much for Argentina to bear. Will a spread of 168 percent or more prove too much for Lebanon?

(SNIP)

And all indications suggest that Lebanon does not have time. McCormack estimates that the Lebanese government can continue putting off delaying the day of reckoning until next year, when US$950 million in Eurobonds mature. "That is when things are expected to take a turning point," he worries.

And what then? A financial collapse in Lebanon would upset the existing balance of power in the region between Syria and Israel. Since 1991, just after the close of the Lebanese Civil War, Syria has provided for Lebanon's security. In exchange, the former has long used Lebanon as a proxy to strengthen its position against Israel. Should Lebanon's economy collapse, Syria would likely come to see its neighbor as more of a liability than an asset. The Lebanese could easily blame Syria for their economic woes. Moreover, the myriad military factions within Lebanon, whose aims are often at odds with the Syrians', would likely take up any ground the Lebanese government loses domestically.

If Lebanon were to fall into chaos, then the government's control over its southern border with Israel would become even more slender. Already, Hezbullah administers many of the civil functions of daily life in southern Lebanon, and many other armed insurgents are known to be active in the region. As Israeli tanks rolled into the West Bank this past spring, Hezbullah traded fire with Israeli forces along Lebanon's border with Israel. Other Palestinian factions are eager to re-open the "Southern Front," as it has become known in the Arab press, but have shied away from doing so out of deference to Hezbullah. But there is no guarantee that this status quo can be maintained in the long run.

Others argue that Lebanon's financial collapse might not be as catastrophic after all; it is just a means for changing the power structure in the country. They add that once this happens, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will step in to extend a rescue package that will put the country on the road to recovery. The end of Syrian influence would be a good thing, they argue, and would herald a new chapter in the history of postwar Lebanon. But IMF remedies often prove unpopular. An economic collapse followed by unpopular measures from the IMF might prove to be the shock that upsets Lebanon's fragile internal stability, and its stability as a frontline state in the Arab-Israeli conflict. Such a shock, there is ample reason to fear, could lead the region into war.

//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting 26 June 2002
http://www.stratfor.com/fib/topStory_view.php?ID=205012

COLOMBIA: NEXT PRESIDENT MAY HIT ROADBLOCK IN SEEKING U.S. AID

Summary

Colombian President-elect Alvaro Uribe Velez needs billions of dollars more in U.S. aid to fight rebels, drug traffickers and paramilitaries who are ravaging his country and flooding the world with cocaine. But U.S. congressional concerns about his ties to people accused of drug trafficking and to paramilitaries could block Uribe's chances of getting more U.S. aid.

Analysis

During a three-day trip last week to Washington, D.C., Colombian President-elect Alvaro Uribe Velez reportedly won the Bush administration's assurances of more military and economic support to help his government battle guerrillas, paramilitaries and drug traffickers. However, Colombia's next president stumbled badly in a closed-door meeting with 20 Republican members of the House of Representative's Drug Task Force.

According to congressional sources, Uribe indicated during the meeting that longtime friend and political ally Pedro Juan Moreno, suspected by U.S. officials of involvement in the narcotics trade, would play an important role in his government. He also implied that a former Colombian national police chief held in very high regard by U.S. congressional leaders would not have any role at all.

It's not clear if Uribe realizes the serious political damage he caused himself. Reports by Colombian news media indicate he returned to Bogota very pleased with the pledges of support he received personally from U.S. President George W. Bush. Nevertheless, if Uribe appoints Moreno as a senior adviser, Bush's efforts to win approval for a large boost in aid to Colombia likely will stall quickly.

Without a significant and sustained increase in military and economic aid from Washington, Uribe probably will find it hard, if not impossible, to make good on his campaign pledges of ending Colombia's nearly four decades of political conflict and dismantling the country's bustling cocaine and heroin-trafficking industries.

The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration reportedly believes that Moreno is an important supplier of precursor chemicals used to manufacture cocaine in Colombia. Moreno has categorically denied the DEA's allegations, but congressional sources told STRATFOR that he is the target of an open DEA investigation and that Colombian counter-drug intelligence authorities have an extensive file on Moreno's business activities.

(SNIP)

The unhappy outcome of Uribe's recent meeting with Republican congressional leaders also revealed some realities that Bush will confront as he seeks expanded U.S. military aid for Colombia. Many members of Congress doubt the honesty and integrity of Colombia's next president. Although no smoking guns have been made public yet, Uribe has been dogged by allegations that he is too friendly with individuals suspected of involvement in paramilitary and drug-trafficking activities.

Any boost in U.S. military and economic aid to help Colombia's next government battle Marxist rebels, paramilitaries and over 200 separate drug-trafficking groups also implies a significant expansion in Washington's political influence over Uribe's government. This is something that Uribe and his nationalist Colombian supporters likely will resist fiercely.

While U.S. legislators' doubts about the integrity and transparency of Uribe's future government deepen, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) is intensifying its nationwide offensive of using threats of kidnapping and assassination to force thousands of elected and appointed local government officials to resign.

(SNIP)

By targeting local government on a wholesale basis, the FARC is trying to consolidate control over as much of the country as it can seize before Uribe assumes the presidency Aug. 7, 2002. This strategy likely has several objectives.

For example, the FARC could be seeking government-recognized control over a much larger swathe of Colombia's national territory in any future peace negotiations. The FARC is also demonstrating empirically how weak the Colombian government and army actually are and driving home to Colombian voters the grim message that defeating the guerrillas could cost the country billions of dollars annually and take many bloody years to achieve.

//allAfrica.com Posted to the web June 26, 2002
http://allafrica.com/stories/200206260638.html

AFRICA IS ON EVERYONE'S LIPS AT G-8, BUT IS THERE SUBSTANCE BEHIND THE WORDS?

ANALYSIS
Charles Cobb Jr.
Washington, DC

Criticism won't be heard at the conference table on the G-8's "Africa Day" Thursday. And it will only be faintly heard outside of the conference room. In fact, protestors will be kept almost 60 miles away in Calgary. Even the mountain hiking trails that surround the resort town of Kananaskis, where the Summit is taking place, are patroled by troops. But many questions will linger long after Kananaskis returns to normal.

At the center of "Africa Day" in Kananaskis is Nepad - the New Partnership for Africa's Development, a development plan shaped in Africa that aims to attract some US$64bn in investment from wealthy nations in return for pledges of adherence to democratic principles, human rights and reform of economic structures and practices.

An important part of Nepad's design has Africa's leaders making each other answerable through a "peer review" process for human rights abuses, corruption and mismanagement that have plagued many of the continent's nations. This approach say African leaders, avoids what they perceive as meddling by outsiders. Africa will not beg for money with "cap in hand," insists Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo who is Chair of the African group attending the Kananaskis Summit.

But from it's inception, Nepad has been criticized inside and outside of Africa as a top-down effort that ignores civil society even as it lays claim to being committed to "good governance."

Last month the Post newspaper of Zambia quoted academician Akashambatwa Mbikusita-Lewanika as calling Nepad "nothing much beyond a more sophisticated continuation of a partnership that could be likened to that between a rough and socially insensitive profit motivated Western capitalist, and a docile, economically disadvantaged exploited African horse."

In less rhetorically infused language, a 13-page policy paper released last week by the North-South institute raised three critical questions not likely to be answered by whatever words emerge at the end of the Kananaskis Summit: "Is a real partnership possible when the balance of power necessarily weighs on the side of developed countries...Is real ownership by African partners probable...How likely is it that real ownership by developing countries will lead donors to increase resource flows and reform aid policies, programs and practices?"

Even before "Africa Day" got underway, African participants were quietly expressing their own worries and dissatisfactions. They had hoped the G-8 nations would commit to a comprehensive aid package known as the Millennium Development Account, but they have been told that such a commitment will not be made.

Africans, who are supported in this by World Bank President James Wolfenshon, want half of that US$12bn fund directed toward the continent, but U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell told a Canadian television interviewer, "We will...make the case that there are other nations in the world that have a need for the kinds of funds we are about to make available."

Very privately, some African officials grumble that they are being penalized collectively because of the dissatisfaction with the way some African nations have responded to Zimbabwe's elections in March. After a ballot widely held to be deeply flawed, there was no overt action by African states against the Zimbabwe government. But these African officials argue that while the new African Union will have self-policing mechanisms, the current Organization of African Unity (OAU) does not.

Other claims on G-8 money are of greater concern to the United States. These include a desire for contributions from Europe and Japan for a proposed $20-billion subsidy for Russian nuclear disarmament, and the shortfall in a hoped-for US$5bn pot of money for rebuilding Afghanistan.

Issues of critical importance to Africa - debt relief and leveling the trade playing field - are not expected to be seriously considered, although the four African heads of state are certain to bring them up in their face-to-face meetings. Without coming to terms with these, say critics, Africa will continue to bear the pain of "reform" with little to show for it except for the need for more charity.

Africa's arduous struggle with the HIV/Aids pandemic seems not to be on the agenda either. "How can you talk about the future of sub-Saharan Africa without AIDS at the heart of the analysis?" asked Stephen Lewis, the UN Special Envoy for HIV/AIDS, speaking at the opening of the "G6B (Group of 6 Billion) The Peoples' Summit," an alternative to the G-8 Summit, that was held in Calgary.

(SNIP)

The larger issue of globalization, what Africa Action executive director Salih Booker has called "global apartheid" frames much of the criticism. "You have global minority rule where you have a small number of wealthy, primarily white countries that rule a world that's populated primarily by people of color of whom 800 million Africans are a significant part. We're focusing on the need to democratize the institutions that currently serve global apartheid like the World Bank, the IMF and the WTO, he told allAfrica.com.

No communique will be issued by the Summit, although a statement of support for Nepad is expected. The discussion now moves to South Africa, where the "Africa Union" replaces the OAU at the end of the month. Already critics are wondering what concrete results will emerge.

//The Guardian Thursday June 27, 2002
http://www.guardian.co.uk/elsewhere/journalist/story/0,7792,745040,00.html

BEWARE SLEEPING TIGERS

The departure of south-east Asia's 'big five' authoritarian leaders is welcome but they leave behind a political vacuum, writes John Aglionby

When Malaysia's feisty prime minister, Mahathir Mohamad, finally confirmed on Tuesday that he was planning to bow out of politics - albeit after a 16-month transition period - it was, quite rightly, seen as the beginning of the end of an era in Malaysian politics.

Both the character of Dr Mahathir's chosen successor, Abdullah Badawi, and the changing times suggest no one will ever dominate Malaysian politics to the extent the outgoing leader has. The only debate is over how much gentler the political climate will become and how quickly.

But the ramifications of Dr Mahathir's passing will reverberate far beyond Malaysia's borders. Put simply, the days of strong leaders with regional - and even global - clout are over. The Philippines was the first of south-east Asia's "big five" to experience significant political change when the dictator Ferdinand Marcos succumbed to people power in 1986. Two years later Thai politics marked its watershed when Chatichai Choonhavan's election as prime minister heralded the onset of more stable government - although its modern constitution took almost another decade to write. Next to go was the architect of modern Singapore, Lee Kwan Yew, in 1990, although many commentators say that while he remains senior minister he has not really departed at all and no significant change will happen until he dies.

The region's economic crisis and massive student demonstrations saw off Indonesia's dictator Suharto in 1998 which, until this week, left Dr Mahathir as the region's only significant player left in office. The other nations in south-east Asia - Brunei, Burma, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam - all, to varying degrees, still have authoritarian governments but none count for much on the global stage. The sultan of Brunei, for example, is unlikely to get the red-carpet reception at the White House accorded to Dr Mahathir last month.

Does this dearth of dictators matter? For the most part the answer is a resounding "no" and "thank goodness they've gone." The Philippines and Indonesia, for example, are much freer than they were under their respective authoritarian rulers and even the Singaporean leadership is at last talking about the problems of having such a controlled society (ie they are waking up to the need for critical thinkers).

The problem is that they have left either a leadership vacuum, a frighteningly messy state, or both in their wake.

(SNIP)

Where the lack of leadership is most apparent is in the economic sector. This week marks the fifth anniversary of the start of the Asian financial crisis - which began in Thailand with the collapse of the baht and rapidly spread elsewhere. Half a decade on and the badly mauled tigers of southeast Asia are still struggling to find their voices. This is, admittedly, partly because of the internet bubble bursting in 2000 but that explanation only goes so far.

The two main reasons for the prolonged whimper are the slow pace of institutional reform and the increasingly large Chinese shadow being cast across the region. Until issues such as banking reform, corruption and sustainable economic diversification are thoroughly addressed, south-east Asia will be passed over in favour of China and northern Asia. And once investor interest is lost, it will be a struggle to recoup it.

This does not mean a return to authoritarianism is the best way forward; charismatic leaders do not have to be dictators. But unless the region finds a figure, or better still figures, to rally behind soon, the repercussions could be such that the murmuring for a return to the likes of Dr Mahathir, Suharto, Marcos et al could easily turn into a clamour.

//The Japan Times Thursday, June 27, 2002
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/getarticle.pl5?fl20020627kj.htm

Lifelines
NEWS HUNGRY TV VIEWERS FIGHTING FOR ENGLISH SERVICE
By Ken Joseph, Jr.

To start off, we have a request from "Friends of Foxnews," who are working to keep Foxnews, the up and coming challenge to CNN and BBC and the only non-edited English language news program on SkyPerfecTV here in Japan.

I must confess that I keep it on nearly 24 hours a day at work and at home, although I stumbled upon it purely by accident. It's surely the best kept secret in Japan.

Apparently Foxnews is scheduled to go off the air at the end of July unless they can get more subscribers and or companies to place ads on the channel, which to date has none.

When I was going to school in Los Angeles, there were three Japanese TV networks, all supported by Japanese companies in the community. When you think about it, there should be at least one channel out of the dozens for the international community, with local news and information presented properly.

If you are interested in keeping Foxnews on the air, you can contact them at E-mail: Savefoxnews@keikyo.com.

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© 2002, Gloria R. Lalumia
insight@zianet.com

"When there was joy..." a bittersweet picture/remembrance of the good times...at http://www.zianet.com/insightanalytical

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