World Media Watch for June 19, 2002

BUZZFLASH NOTE: Once again, these are the views and perspectives of the individual papers, not of BuzzFlash or Gloria. They offer BuzzFlash readers a way of reading what other nations are saying about the crisis, whether we like it or not. We repeat: This is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

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1//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting, USA--EGYPT'S AL QAEDA INTELLIGENCE FORCING SAUDIS INTO CORNER (Egyptian intelligence about al Qaeda's presence in Saudi Arabia is forcing the kingdom to act publicly to appease Washington. However, it must balance this with contrasting announcements at home -- or risk domestic opposition boiling over...if the Egyptians create problems for the Saudis with their investigation into al Qaeda, then some sort of conflict is sure to erupt between Riyadh and Cairo. Saudi Arabia is increasing contact with Sudan -- Sudanese President Omar Bashir traveled to the country June 17 -- which the Saudis could possibly use as a proxy against Egypt.)

2//New Zealand Herald, NZ-DIALOGUE: GWYNNE DYER: US LEAVES WRECKED AFGHANISTAN TO THUGS, MURDERERS (There they were in the first and second rows: a roll-call of the thugs and murderers who have ruined Afghanistan. They were there because the United States, at the moment the real ruler of Afghanistan, wanted them to be there. Washington wants a cheap one-way ticket out of Afghanistan, and they are it...Since President Bush has little else to show for his Afghan expedition - no Osama bin Laden dead or alive, not even Mullah Omar in chains - he needs to show the American public that something positive has been accomplished, so "democracy" has to come to Afghanistan.

3//Afghan News Network, USA--KARZAI PROMISES PROBE INTO SECRET SERVICE THREAT (Afghan leader Hamid Karzai pledged on Monday to probe reports that members of the intelligence service had intimidated Loya Jirga delegates, admitting his job would be on the line if he failed to take action...One delegate was forced to flee the country after he was threatened by a leading warlord following a speech from the floor and the wife of another member was raped and killed on Friday, a diplomatic source said on Sunday.)

4//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong--US CONCERN OVER TARDY PAKISTAN INTELLIGENCE FORCES (In its ongoing quest to track down members al-Qaeda, the United States is placing increasing demands on Pakistan to take action against suspected terrorists, but it is becoming concerned over the apparent inability of Pakistan's intelligence agents to act on information given to them by their US counterparts.)

5//The Moscow Times, Russia--PUTIN PLEDGES TO GET OUT OF NEWS ("We are talking about turning the media industry into a modern market-based branch of the national economy," Putin said in his introductory speech to the managers of private and state-owned media...The conference, which opens Wednesday under the title "The Media Industry: Directions for Reform," grew out of the Russian-American Media Entrepreneurship Dialogue, which was initiated by Putin and U.S. President George W. Bush during their meeting in the United States last November and wrapped up during their Moscow summit last month.)

6//The Independent, UK--FALKLANDS PENGUINS DYING IN THOUSANDS (One possible explanation for the deaths is overfishing. Another is a drop in the sea temperature caused by the melting of Antarctic glaciers as a result of global warming. The cooler waters have caused the penguins' food source of squid to remain in Argentinian waters rather than move on the current to the Falklands.)

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1//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting 18 June 2002
http://www.stratfor.com/fib/topStory_view.php?ID=204891

EGYPT'S AL QAEDA INTELLIGENCE FORCING SAUDIS INTO CORNER

Summary

The Saudi Arabian government recently announced the capture of suspected al Qaeda members, while simultaneously publicizing its release of Saudi citizens who fought in Afghanistan. Egyptian intelligence about al Qaeda's presence in Saudi Arabia is forcing the kingdom to act publicly to appease Washington. However, it must balance this with contrasting announcements at home -- or risk domestic opposition boiling over.

Analysis

...Both the al Qaeda arrests and the prisoners' release were well known to U.S. intelligence. Therefore, the most interesting question is not only why the Saudis made the announcement, but also why now? It appears the Saudis are feeling the heat from an Egyptian investigation into al Qaeda's presence in Saudi Arabia, and they must therefore make a reluctant public show of support to the United States. However, they also must be careful to avoid being seen as Washington's puppet.

The Saudis are playing to two different audiences, the first of which is domestic. There are elements in the country, including influential Saudis, that are sympathetic to al Qaeda, and there are many more who are profoundly uncomfortable with the U.S. military's continuing presence. The Saudi government must move cautiously to placate these factions.

On the other hand, the Saudis also must play to the United States, which not only is a superpower capable of destabilizing the entire region, but also has military forces inside the kingdom. The Saudis use the Americans to protect the regional balance of power. They cannot afford a complete breach with the United States, and so are moving along a tightrope. They must convince the United States that they are cooperating against al Qaeda, while at the same time demonstrating to the domestic factions that they are not cooperating too much. Balance is everything.

(SNIP)

That explains the why but not the reason making the announcement now. Apart from the general pressure being applied by the United States, an interesting incident occurred in Egypt late last week: Security forces arrested Salah Hashem, a co-founder of the radical Al-Gama'a al-Islamiya Islamic organization, which is blamed for the massacre of tourists at Luxor, Egypt, in 1997.

(SNIP)

The Egyptians have been cooperating actively with U.S. intelligence, and Hashem's detention is important because it indicates two things. First, the willingness to arrest him shows that the Egyptians are confident that they have Al-Gama'a under control. Second, it exhibits the fact that the Egyptians are reaching a level of clarity about the structure of al Qaeda that was not available before. They would not arrest Hashem on a vague fishing expedition -- but only if they felt that he knew critically important things about al Qaeda.

One of the things he likely has knowledge of is the relationship between the two most important elements in al Qaeda: Egyptian and Saudi members. Hashem worked in Saudi Arabia from 1982 to 1985 and could therefore have information on people and activities there. This is a critically important addition to the intelligence Egypt has gathered about al Qaeda in general and the presence and structure of al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia in particular.

Such information also disallows the Saudis plausible deniability. The intelligence that the Egyptians have gathered through this and many other arrests has put the Saudi government in a position wherein Washington would regard failure to act on this information as a refusal to cooperate. The Saudis cannot afford this.

Therefore, not only must they act; they must act publicly. This is why the arrests of the al Qaeda suspects that occurred months ago have been announced now, and it is safe to assume that further arrests that have not yet been announced are being made.

At the same time, the Saudis can't just "cooperate." For every action, there will be a local reaction. Hence, linked with the announcement of the al Qaeda arrests is the announcement of the release of Saudis who fought in Afghanistan. For the U.S. government, a much more important al Qaeda cell has been taken down publicly while a much less critical group of operatives have been released to appease domestic critics and assure them that the kingdom remains independent.

This may achieve the balance between the needs of the Saudis and the United States, but if the Egyptians create problems for the Saudis with their investigation into al Qaeda, then some sort of conflict is sure to erupt between Riyadh and Cairo. Saudi Arabia is increasing contact with Sudan -- Sudanese President Omar Bashir traveled to the country June 17 -- which the Saudis could possibly use as a proxy against Egypt.

2//New Zealand Herald Wednesday June 19, 2002
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/storydisplay.cfm?
storyID=2047165&thesection=news&thesubsection=dialogue

DIALOGUE
GWYNNE DYER: US LEAVES WRECKED AFGHANISTAN TO THUGS, MURDERERS
* Gwynne Dyer is a London-based independent journalist.
18.06.2002

This is not democracy. This is a rubber stamp," said Sima Samar, the Minister for Women's Affairs in the interim Afghan Government.

Looking around the enormous tent erected in the grounds of the wrecked Kabul Polytechnic to house the 2000 delegates to the Loya Jirga, the grand council called to choose a government until elections are held late next year, she continued: "Everything here has already been decided by those with the power. This Jirga includes all the warlords. None of them is left out."

She was not exaggerating. There they were in the first and second rows: a roll-call of the thugs and murderers who have ruined Afghanistan.

They were there because the United States, at the moment the real ruler of Afghanistan, wanted them to be there. Washington wants a cheap one-way ticket out of Afghanistan, and they are it.

When the Taleban regime was overthrown late last year by an alliance of American air power and these same warlords, the US had a choice: to stay and help to build a new Afghanistan, or just to hand over to its warlord allies and get out fast.

The British and Russians will both tell you that foreign armies who stay too long in Afghanistan always end up regretting it. Besides, the Bush Administration doesn't do "nation-building", so the decision was a no-brainer.

Since President Bush has little else to show for his Afghan expedition - no Osama bin Laden dead or alive, not even Mullah Omar in chains - he needs to show the American public that something positive has been accomplished, so "democracy" has to come to Afghanistan.

But not real democracy, because that would take years of effort and billions of dollars of development funds, and even then it might not work. Just a show of democracy, and then out within a year or less.

That is why Isaf, the International Security Assistance Force to which 19 nations have contributed troops, has never expanded outside Kabul.

Nobody wanted to take on the big job of policing the rest of the country even long enough to ensure that the Loya Jirga could be chosen freely.

(SNIP)

Afghan leaders have been trying to modernise their country for almost a century now, and after the monarchy was overthrown in 1973 the new, pro-Soviet regime put the project into high gear.

Twenty years ago, there was barely a head-scarf to be seen in Kabul, let alone a burqa. The grounds of Kabul Polytechnic, now thronged with the bearded retinues of tribal warlords, were filled with young Afghan women in jeans studying for engineering degrees.

The conservative tribal areas hated modernisation, but what turned it into a 22-year civil war was former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger's insight that if he secretly armed the tribes against Kabul, he could sucker the Soviet Union into coming to the Kabul Government's rescue.

The Russians duly "invaded" in 1979, the US ran even more arms in to the tribes, and Kissinger got what he wanted: Russia's Vietnam.

(SNIP)

Having helped to wreck Afghanistan, Washington then walked away, abandoning it to a long civil war and the tender mercies of Pakistan's Inter-Service Intelligence (which eventually pacified it, more or less, by creating the Taleban).

Now the US is walking away again, behind a flimsy facade of "democratisation". But given the dismal record of past interventions, British, Russian, American and Pakistani, maybe this is the least bad outcome to a miserable episode in Afghan history.

3//Afghan News Network Tuesday, June 18, 2002
http://www.myafghan.com/news2.asp?id=1997865381

KARZAI PROMISES PROBE INTO SECRET SERVICE THREAT
Article submitted at 1:24 AM (CST) on 6/18/2002

(AFP) - KABUL: Afghan leader Hamid Karzai pledged on Monday to probe reports that members of the intelligence service had intimidated Loya Jirga delegates, admitting his job would be on the line if he failed to take action.

"I have had reports that security people have threatened Loya Jirga members," he told the grand assembly. "We called the Loya Jirga in order to finish oppression and threats to Afghans. No people should be threatened inside the Loya Jirga. "If anybody has been threatened I am available for him to come to me directly or contact me through friends.

"If I do not take any measures in this connection you can remove me again," he added. Claims of threats and intimidation have been heard throughout the Loya Jirga, called to select a new transitional government for Afghanistan, which is now in its seventh day.

One delegate was forced to flee the country after he was threatened by a leading warlord following a speech from the floor and the wife of another member was raped and killed on Friday, a diplomatic source said on Sunday.

(MORE)

4/Asia Times Online June 18, 2002
http://www.atimes.com/ind-pak/DF18Df04.html

US CONCERN OVER TARDY PAKISTAN INTELLIGENCE FORCES
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - In its ongoing quest to track down members al-Qaeda, the United States is placing increasing demands on Pakistan to take action against suspected terrorists, but it is becoming concerned over the apparent inability of Pakistan's intelligence agents to act on information given to them by their US counterparts.

Abdullah al-Muhajir, after his arrest in the United States recently upon his return from Pakistan on suspicion of plotting to set off a radiological "dirty" bomb in the US, is believed to have divulged that he met two senior al-Qaeda men in Karachi, including Khalid Al-Shiekh, one of the most wanted terrorists in the world.

Under questioning, Abdullah al-Muhajir is said to have given a detailed account of Pakistan-based militant groups, and admitted that with the close coordination of these groups several prominent al-Qaeda leaders had managed to slip into Pakistan from Afghanistan.

This information was passed to the Pakistani intelligence machinery, but since being given the information it has not been able to make any arrests of note, much to the apparent frustration of US officials. The information acquired from Abdullah al-Muhaji points to the presence of a number of prominent Arab fighters holed up in the slums of Karachi. They are said to be well integrated and awaiting the chance to restart their operations against US interests.

What earlier successes Pakistan has had have, however, been the result of being supplied by information by the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), including the arrests of Arab fighter Abu Zobaida and associates of his in different cities in Punjab province, where they had received shelter from the Jaish-i-Mohammed militant group.

In an attempt to help the Pakistanis, the US has offered to deploy its human resources (both marines and detectives) in monitoring suspected terrorists and militant organizations. The US has also offered to install monitoring equipment at borders, airports and all other exit points from the country, including railway stations. This is aimed at stemming the flood of militants crossing into Indian-controlled Kashmir, and those coming from across the porous western border with Afghanistan. However, Pakistani authorities have agreed only to allow monitoring at the borders, and not within the country.

(MORE)

5//The Moscow Times Wednesday, Jun. 19, 2002. Page 1
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2002/06/19/001.html

PUTIN PLEDGES TO GET OUT OF NEWS
By Andrei Zolotov Jr., Staff Writer

A small group of media executives met with President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday and won his support for a still vague but ambitious plan to reduce the government's role in the news business. The meeting was held ahead of a two-day conference opening Wednesday with the goal of bringing together the internally divided media community into a lobby group that would assume responsibility for self-regulation and represent the industry versus the state.

"We are talking about turning the media industry into a modern market-based branch of the national economy," Putin said in his introductory speech to the managers of private and state-owned media. "Of course, without the economic independence of the mass media -- and I have said it publicly many times already -- it is impossible to fulfill citizens' constitutional right to receive credible information."

In a political sense, the meeting as well as the agenda of the upcoming conference appeared to be a victory for Putin, who has argued in the face of stern criticism that the conflicts over Vladimir Gusinsky's Media-MOST and Boris Berezovsky's TV6 were economic rather than political. But the industry leaders who worked with the Press Ministry to organize the conference agreed that without solving the economic issues and boosting the industry as a business, the problems of press freedom, which are greater in the regions than in Moscow, would only multiply.

(SNIP)

Prof-Media holding's deputy head Yevgeny Abov...said that during their candid conversation with Putin, which lasted 40 minutes longer than the planned hour and a half, media executives made an effort to convince the president that the government's excessive role was responsible for the underdevelopment of the media market. "No matter how strange it may seem, he did not quite understand at first how distorted the market is as a result of state subsidies [awarded on a select basis]," Abov said. "We had to explain it."

However, in a fragment shown on ORT television, Putin said he firmly supported the idea of eliminating the direct and indirect subsidies that are awarded to loyal media by the federal and local governments -- a subject that is expected to be one of the most controversial in this week's conference. "It is tough, it is cruel, but it is the only way to build a real, transparent and efficiently functioning economy," Putin said. "I will talk to [Prime Minister Mikhail] Kasyanov and [Finance Minister Alexei] Kudrin about it."

The conference, which opens Wednesday under the title "The Media Industry: Directions for Reform," grew out of the Russian-American Media Entrepreneurship Dialogue, which was initiated by Putin and U.S. President George W. Bush during their meeting in the United States last November and wrapped up during their Moscow summit last month.

Television anchor Vladimir Pozner, who took part in both the dialogue and Tuesday's meeting with Putin, said that in the course of a series of meetings with their U.S. counterparts, Russian media leaders who had been highly antagonized by the media wars, in which they were forced to take sides, began talking to one another. "As time goes by, people begin to understand that nobody is winning [from a lack of coordination]," Pozner said Tuesday by telephone after the meeting with Putin. "Yes, the community is diverse and should be competitive, but it is nonetheless a community that has common interests."

The conference is built around a 57-page report outlining the current state of affairs in the industry, which the some 800 participants have been asked to comment on. The event was organized by the Press Ministry and all the main, often rival, media organizations, and without foreign participation.

(SNIP)

He (Putin) also spoke against a monopoly on the advertising market, which he said has to be accessible and transparent.

Putin described the issue of legal caps on foreign ownership in the media as a "delicate" one. "Certain limitations on foreign capital's activity in the areas that are most sensitive for the national audience exist in many countries and are certainly part of state information policy," Putin said. But he said the caps must not hinder the development of business.

Putin also backed the idea of self-regulation, which may reduce the government's regulatory role. "I count very much on the corporate associations developing a certain code of ethics and behavior," he said.

(MORE)

6//The Independent 19 June 2002
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/environment/story.jsp?story=306736

FALKLANDS PENGUINS DYING IN THOUSANDS
By Gavin Finch

Scientists are baffled by the deaths of thousands of penguins in the Falkland Islands.

A Falklands farmer, David Pole Evans, was the first to notice that something was amiss when he saw penguins "just standing around, not looking very fit or healthy" in April.

A few weeks later, he found thousands of dead penguins on the shore of Saunders Island and in the surrounding waters.

He told the BBC that he estimated as many as 9,000 rockhopper penguins and 1,000 gentoo penguins, which are native to the South Atlantic region, have died so far.

(SNIP)

But Mike Bingham, a researcher who works with the International Penguin Conservation Work Group, based on the islands, said there was "no doubt" that the penguins are dying from starvation.

The local penguins have been moulting a month later than usual. When they moult, they are no longer waterproof and therefore come ashore. But once removed from their food source, they need to be fat enough to survive on land.

One possible explanation for the deaths is overfishing. Another is a drop in the sea temperature caused by the melting of Antarctic glaciers as a result of global warming. The cooler waters have caused the penguins' food source of squid to remain in Argentinian waters rather than move on the current to the Falklands.

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© 2002, Gloria R. Lalumia
insight@zianet.com

Web Radio for Progressives listings at http://www.zianet.com/insightanalytical

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