World Media Watch for May 20, 2002

BUZZFLASH NOTE: Once again, these are the views and perspectives of the individual papers, not of BuzzFlash or Gloria. They offer BuzzFlash readers a way of reading what other nations are saying about the crisis, whether we like it or not. We repeat: This is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

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1//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong--KASHMIR JUST THE BEGINNING IN JIHADIS' VISION OF WAR (Jihadi sources say that the latest attack in Kashmir is part of a much broader plan to push India and Pakistan into conflict and to foment unrest from the Indian subcontinent to Central Asia...This is the big game plan in which US and allied forces will have to become involved, and the battlefield will be from the Pansher Valley in Afghanistan to Kolkata in India.)

2//Pakistan News Service, Pakistan-EDITORIAL/ INDIAN WAR THREAT: COALITION BACK-STABBING PAKISTAN (From the recent turn of events it is becoming clear that despite being the frontline state in the global war of terrorism, the Americans and the Indians are both planning a joint attack on Pakistan. On the surface it will be India but with full backing, material and logistics support of coalition forces.

3//The Dawn, Pakistan--NEED TO WORK ON LOYA JIRGA'S OUTCOME STRESSED (The fragile stability in Afghanistan is in danger of dissolving into hostilities if the Loya Jirga fails to carefully balance the power arrangements made in Bonn six months ago, the International Crisis Group (ICG) said in a press release issued on Friday.)

4//Far Eastern Economic Review, Hong Kong--WARLORD, PROFITEER, IDEOLOGUE, CHIEF (Khan's ability to maintain his army, keep the Americans and Iranians at bay and defy Kabul rests on his growing financial independence...The refusal of the U.S. and the international community to send international peacekeepers to major cities outside Kabul after the Taliban's defeat, when the warlords were weak and unsure of their future, is now proving intensely detrimental. "The warlords with income are stronger now than they were last December when the Taliban fell. They can now defy the central government and the international community at will," says a senior European aid official in Herat.)

5//Japan Today, Japan--WHALING BATTLE BEGINS AS IVVC PREPARES TO MEET (On Tokyo's claims that whales eat too many fish, Greenpeace said, "Until commercial whaling decimated whale numbers, whales and fish were part of the ocean ecosystem and large populations of both existed in balance. It is naively simplistic to assume that removing whales from the ocean ecosystem will automatically increase the number of commercially desired fish species.")

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1//Asia Times Online May 18, 2002
http://www.atimes.com/ind-pak/DE18Df03.html

KASHMIR JUST THE BEGINNING IN JIHADIS' VISION OF WAR
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - The deadly hand of jihadis appears finally to have stoked the fires of confrontation to such an extent that a clash between India and Pakistan is inevitable.

(SNIP)

Jihadi sources say that the latest attack in Kashmir is part of a much broader plan to push India and Pakistan into conflict and to foment unrest from the Indian subcontinent to Central Asia in order to complete their unfinished agenda of creating a bi-polar world of Muslims and non-Muslims.

Long before the events of September 11, Islamists had begun to rally in the face of what they perceived as spreading United States hegemony in the post Cold War era. Washington, they believed, was set on the elimination of fundamentalist forces in South and Central Asia - basically the remnants of the jihadi movements that fought in Afghanistan, and which, ironically, the US supported and helped equip. At the same time, the US would counterbalance the increasing presence of China in the region, which was quickly emerging to fill the vacuum left by the demise of the former Soviet Union.

Islamic militants, battle-hardened in the mountains of Afghanistan, formed the core of the opposition to the US challenge. And foremost among them was al-Qaeda, a coalition of several militant groups with members in many countries, with its vision of a polarized world. After the US overran Afghanistan, the base for most of the jihadis, they shifted to Indian-held Kashmir, and to India itself, from where they plan to stir India and Pakistan into fighting that they reason will inevitably draw in the US.

(SNIP)

Prominent analyst on international affairs and former chairman of the international affairs department of Karachi University, Professor Shamim Akhtar, explains further, saying that for the first time Pakistan is engaged on three fronts - in its own tribal areas (along with the US in looking for al-Qaeda and Taliban forces), on its northeastern border with India, and on the domestic front, where militants are agitating against President's General Pervez Musharraf's alliance with the US.

The failed attack to blow up the Indian parliament on December 13 was the beginning of jihadis' new war aimed at raising tension between New Delhi and Islamabad to boiling point. Although Pakistan has denied the involvement of any Pakistani-based militant groups in this attack, insiders have no doubt that they were involved. A widely-publicized crackdown against militants in Pakistan announced earlier this year was aimed at clipping the wings of the militants, but few people of importance were detained. Mostly rank-and-file group members or those who did not toe the government line were taken in. And when subsequently released, they agreed to stop cross-border activities.

Further, Pakistan's Corps Intelligence, Military Intelligence (303) and the Inter-Services Intelligence have set out new guidelines for their contacts in the militant groups acting in Kashmir: they should act more like locals and sever ties with international groups such as al-Qaeda, and adopt more politics and less militancy. Those jihadis opposed to this have now made their base the whole of India, and once fighting does break out between Pakistan and India, their networks across India will be activated to play havoc with Indian interests.

This is the big game plan in which US and allied forces will have to become involved, and the battlefield will be from the Pansher Valley in Afghanistan to Kolkata in India.

2//Pakistan News Service Updated on 2002-05-19 08:25:39
http://www.paknews.com/editorials.php?id=1&date1=2002-05-19

EDITORIAL:
INDIAN WAR THREAT: COALITION BACK-STABBING PAKISTAN

From the recent turn of events it is becoming clear that despite being the frontline state in the global war of terrorism, the Americans and the Indians are both planning a joint attack on Pakistan. On the surface it will be India but with full backing, material and logistics support of coalition forces. US are having joint army exercise in India and India just concluded its own war games. US Assistant Secretary of States for South Asia Christina Rocca was in New Delhi not for peace talks but for strategy on how and when to do launch such an attack. She visited Pakistan just to put Pakistan off guard. It is not a surprise that immediately after her visit firing by India across all of Kashmir Line of Control started. The 'green signal' to go ahead for this action and expelling of Ashraf Jehangir Qazi Pakistan's Ambassador to India appears to have come from the Americans.

The initial groundwork for an attack on Pakistan is already complete. The analysis of vocal media shows that lately the media reports are very alarming. Claiming Pakistan failed to stop Al-Qaida or somehow helped Al-Qaida leadership and also includes various claims of Al-Qaida leadership residing in Pakistan. There is no mention of Pakistan's total internal & external security apparatus being run along with the American security personnel nor there is any mention of full cooperation and support of Pakistan and Pakistanis in the global war on terrorism.

These media stories with the same theme of putting failure of capture of Al-Qaida on Pakistan, arguing there must be covert help from Pakistan government. This conclusion is very scary with extreme ramifications for Pakistan. Something Pakistan Government must not ignore.

India cannot attack Pakistan alone for sure. The negative tone of media against Pakistan has been a recurring theme right from the start of coalition. Despite every effort of Pakistan and the free rein it gave to coalition forces, this smearing of Pakistan in the international media never stopped, it only declined in intensity and frequency.

(SNIP)

Coalition against terrorism needs stability in the region. The implementation of this stability seems to be where regional bully given a free hand and hence squash any contention in the region. It appears despite gross human rights violations in Kashmir, India will be rewarded by making Kashmir Line of Control a permanent border.

It is clear that the coalition is expanding their War on terrorism goals to include appeasement of India. Although there are many stories that Pakistan is helping American forces to root out those armed groups within Pakistan. These groups also victimize Pakistan. Apparently none of Pakistan's help has really registered any sincere gratitude. If it had, India would have been warned sternly to keep off Pakistan back. India would have been penalized and forced to move its force off Pakistan's border. Not that this has not been done, India has not been condemned either. This is a clear sign of bias in favor of India.

(SNIP)

Asking for a dialogue and talks by Pakistan has obvious not really resulted in any success, neither has participating as a frontline state in coalition generated any sincere gratitude. The media has not stopped its relentless pursuit against Pakistan either.

It is perhaps the time Pakistan makes some swift decisions on its overall strategy to safeguard its sovereignty.

3//The Dawn 19 May 2002 Sunday 06 Rabi-ul-Awwal 1423
http://www.dawn.com/2002/05/19/top13.htm

NEED TO WORK ON LOYA JIRGA'S OUTCOME STRESSED
By Our Staff Reporter

ISLAMABAD, May 18: The fragile stability in Afghanistan is in danger of dissolving into hostilities if the Loya Jirga fails to carefully balance the power arrangements made in Bonn six months ago , the International Crisis Group (ICG) said in a press release issued on Friday.

"If the Loya Jirga does not carefully rebalance power arrangements made in Bonn six months ago while heavy fighting still raged between coalition and Taliban/Al Qaeda forces, the country's power brokers may reject the result and fragile stability could dissolve into new hostilities."

The ICG, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and contain conflict, opened a project based here following the Sept 11 terrorist attacks. Its board is chaired by the former Finnish president, Martti Ahtisaari, and its president is former Australian foreign minister, Gareth Evans.

(SNIP)

In a briefing paper, "The Loya Jirga: one small step forward?," the ICG warned that expectations were unreasonably high and the danger of missteps was grave.

The ICG said the international officials, especially the United Nations mission running the process, were devoting much attention to procedural fairness, especially delegate selection, but too little attention to ensuring a broadly acceptable outcome.

(SNIP)

Emphasizing the need to tackle the thorny issues, the ICG said the key questions included the status of the former king and the composition of the transitional administration, especially the balance between northerners, mainly Tajiks, who were rewarded at Bonn for their anti-Taliban role, and the Pakhtoons, who believed they were being disadvantaged.

Other key problems identified by the ICG include problems of security, resources and an international community sometimes working at cross-purposes.

Stressing the urgency of addressing the increase in factional fighting by diplomatic and military means, the ICG recommended deployment of international security forces to regional centres for the second stage of the delegate selection process from May 21 to June 5.

4//Far Eastern Economic Review Issue cover-dated May 23, 2002
http://www.feer.com/articles/2002/0205_23/p012region.html

WARLORD, PROFITEER, IDEOLOGUE, CHIEF
In western Afghanistan, the United States is facing off against Iranians of all stripes--and charismatic warlord Ismail Khan is skilfully playing all sides to his own advantage. Welcome to Herat, the new front line in the U.S. battle against the 'axis of evil'

By Ahmed Rashid/HERAT

...Herat, just 120 kilometres from the Iranian border and the former centre of several glittering Central Asian civilizations, is now the site of a tense stand-off between Iran and the U.S. Herat is now the front line of America's fight against what U.S. President George W. Bush calls the "axis of evil."

"Everyone spends most of their time gathering intelligence on what the other side is doing," says an American official. The Iranian hardliners would likely agree. But Khatami offered support and sympathy to the U.S. after the September 11 terrorist attacks. "We have no intentions to compete with the U.S., but the U.S. should realize that Afghanistan is our neighbour and we need a close relationship," says an Iranian diplomat.

Inside this triangle sits Ismail Khan, 56, the celebrated and charismatic anti-Soviet warlord who has liberated the city twice--once in 1992 from the communists and again last year from the Taliban. Khan is a master of the Afghan art of balancing the interests of outsiders while extracting maximum benefit from them.

(SNIP)

Khan is skilfully using the divisions within Iran and the wider rift between the U.S. and Iran to his own advantage. Under his authoritarian control, Herat has become the most peaceful and cleanest Afghan city, a place where Western aid workers can work without fear, 75% of children now go to school and, even without reconstruction funds from Kabul or the West, the business of rebuilding homes and shops is booming.

The irony is that even as the U.S. and Iran lobby for influence with Khan, both are also trying to curb his ruthless desire to maintain his independence and force him to bend to the authority of Karzai's government. "The U.S. and the moderate Iranian government share a common interest in supporting stability and making sure the warlords accept Karzai's authority," says a UN diplomat. "Nobody wants an independent fiefdom here."

But working with warlords like Khan, representing different ethnic and religious groups, has been fundamental to the U.S. military strategy in Afghanistan. The U.S. might as well have been playing with fire. In the south, the U.S. hired Pashtun mercenaries--and created new warlords in the process. In the north, it has backed Gen. Rashid Dostum, an Uzbek, and his main rival, Gen. Mohammed Atta, a Tajik. In central Afghanistan the U.S. has supported the Shia Muslim Hazaras to battle the influence of the Iranians, who are also Shias.

These warlords now feel sufficiently independent--thanks to U.S. support--that they have been fighting each other. They pay only lip service to the Karzai government in Kabul.

(SNIP)

Khan is also hindering the election of delegates from his region for the loya jirga, or grand council, that will meet in June to create a new government. He is trying to stuff the seats allocated for his region with generals, police officers and civil servants who are loyal to him.

(SNIP)

Khan's ability to maintain his army, keep the Americans and Iranians at bay and defy Kabul rests on his growing financial independence. At the customs post outside Herat, hundreds of trucks are parked, loaded with Japanese tyres, Iranian fuel, cooking-gas cylinders from Turkmenistan and consumer goods from Persian Gulf ports. Each truck pays between $200 and $1,000 in customs duty to Khan's coffers. Every day some 500 reconditioned cars arrive from the United Arab Emirates. Offloaded at the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, they are driven through Iran and Afghanistan to be smuggled into Pakistan and sold, providing Khan with more revenue.

Judging by the traffic at the customs post, this year Khan could earn as much as $80 million from customs duty on smuggled goods from Iran and Turkmenistan and the reverse traffic from Kandahar and Pakistan. He refuses to share this income with Kabul. "We cannot regularize tax collection until the Kabul government is stronger and reconstruction starts," says a senior bureaucrat under Khan.

Khan has instead started his own reconstruction projects, cleaning out canals and repaving Herat's roads, complete with painted zebra crossings.

Khan's independence and rhetoric are proving problematic to Karzai, who wants to unify the nation. Even some of Khan's own advisers are worried. "Ismail Khan is a charismatic leader who should transform himself into a civil and democratic leader, but we cannot push him too fast," says one senior adviser. "We cannot push aside our elders, but we can try and transform them."

The refusal of the U.S. and the international community to send international peacekeepers to major cities outside Kabul after the Taliban's defeat, when the warlords were weak and unsure of their future, is now proving intensely detrimental. "The warlords with income are stronger now than they were last December when the Taliban fell. They can now defy the central government and the international community at will," says a senior European aid official in Herat. Nevertheless, Khan, with all his skills, will not preach outright revolt. Instead, he will just try and keep everyone happy while he remains the warlord of the west.

5//Japan Today Monday, May 20, 2002
http://www.japantoday.com/e/?content=news&cat=1&id=216489

WHALING BATTLE BEGINS AS IVVC PREPARES TO MEET
Keiji Hirano
Sunday, May 19, 2002 at 18:00 JST

SHIMONOSEKI - Advocates and opponents of whaling launched separate campaigns Sunday ahead of the plenary session of the International Whaling Commission (IWC) to be held in Shimonoseki, western Japan, from Monday to Friday.

At Dream Square, adjacent to a convention center where the IWC meeting will be held, whaling advocates sold canned whale meat and T-shirts with a slogan, "Whales increase. Fishes decrease. People are in trouble," while antiwhaling nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) held a concert promoting whale conservation.

The slogan on the pro-whalers' T-shirts reflects the Japanese government's claim that increasing numbers of whales threaten global fish stocks, while an NGOs banner reading, "We Japanese don't need contaminated whale meat and blubber!" noted their concerns.

The NGOs say whales store toxic substances, such as polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) - a carcinogen and endocrine disrupter - and mercury, in their blubber and organs and accuse the Japanese government of only being concerned with promoting whale consumption.

Meanwhile, Greenpeace, a major international antiwhaling environment group, expressed concern in a statement released the same day that Tokyo may have secured a simple majority of countries within the IWC who will vote in favor of resumption of commercial whaling for the first time in 15 years.

"This is not the result of countries changing their position, but rather the direct result of the Fisheries Agency of Japan using Fisheries Grant Aid to buy a number of developing countries into the Commission to vote in favor of commercial whaling," it said.

(SNIP)

On Tokyo's claims that whales eat too many fish, Greenpeace said, "Until commercial whaling decimated whale numbers, whales and fish were part of the ocean ecosystem and large populations of both existed in balance. It is naively simplistic to assume that removing whales from the ocean ecosystem will automatically increase the number of commercially desired fish species."

Japan gave up commercial whaling in 1986 in compliance with an international moratorium and later started whaling for scientific research, which critics say is a cover for commercial whaling because whale meat obtained for "research" is sold for consumption in Japan. (Kyodo News)

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© 2002, Gloria R. Lalumia
insight@zianet.com

More Stuff at: http://www.zianet.com/insightanalytical

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