World Media Watch for May 17, 2002

BUZZFLASH NOTE: Once again, these are the views and perspectives of the individual papers, not of BuzzFlash or Gloria. They offer BuzzFlash readers a way of reading what other nations are saying about the crisis, whether we like it or not. We repeat: This is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

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1//The Guardian, UK--COMMENT: NEW YORK IS STARTING TO FEEL LIKE BREZHNEV'S MOSCOW (The fascination, and frustration, of America has always been the way one society can produce so much optimistic vigour and risk-taking intellectual energy alongside a ruling culture of such boorish ignorance and cruelty. To judge from the east coast today, the middle-aged liberal intelligentsia is letting itself be intimidated into taking the wrong side.)

2//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting, TX, USA--VENEZUELA: SECOND COUP IN THE MAKING? (Stratfor sources within Venezuela's National Armed Forces (FAN) and a government civilian security entity predicted late May 15 that if President Hugo Chavez does not resign soon or is not legally and constitutionally removed from the presidency, a second military rebellion against his regime will erupt in a matter of weeks.)

3//The Independent, UK--ARGUMENT: WAS THE BRITISH DEPLOYMENT IN AFGANISTAN A PR STUNT? (Six weeks later, Operation Snipe is looking more and more like Carry On Up the Khyber. Britain's most ferocious have caught nary a glimpse of the enemy, let alone engaged anyone in combat.)

4//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong--THE BUCK STOPS WITH PAKISTAN (Musharraf, who, while deploying extra forces on the border, declared that no al-Qaeda would be allowed to enter Pakistan...increasingly, his efforts were being viewed with skepticism. Numerous reports in the US media recently seem to suggest that he has been playing a double game. However, what is interesting is that for every lapse or deliberate act he seems to have credible answers - which seem to satisfy his American interlocutors.)

5//Russianobserver.com, Russia--WILL THE BUBBLE BURST AT THE RUSSIA-US SUMMIT? (Meanwhile, since President Bush boasted recently that he is no more worried about Moscow's nuclear arms than about Britain's, experts are worried that the U.S. political elite might be getting ahead of itself...Progress in bilateral relations...could lead to U.S. leaders forgetting that Russia is not a consolidated democracy, and blind them to the threat that Russia could still slide into autocracy in the next decade.)

6//The Globe and Mail, Canada--BORDER SECURITY PLANS MOVE FORWARD (Topping the list of border initiatives is the expansion of the Nexus program that is designed to let low-risk frequent travelers with special identification passes speed through customs at major crossings at the Canada-U.S. border.)

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1//The Guardian Thursday May 16, 2002
http://www.guardian.co.uk/bush/story/0,7369,716326,00.html

COMMENT: NEW YORK IS STARTING TO FEEL LIKE BREZHNEV'S MOSCOW

Public debate in America has now become a question of loyalty

Jonathan Steele

What a sad place New York City has become. A vibrant, disputatious town with a worldwide reputation for loud voices and strongly expressed opinions is tip-toeing around in whispers. Grief over the casualties of the twin towers massacre is not the reason (those wounds are slowly healing), but a stifling conformity which muzzles public discourse on US foreign policy, the war on terrorism and Israel.

(SNIP)

Listening to these anguished but private complaints suddenly reminded me of the Soviet Union of the Brezhnev era when lower-level officials, journalists and other fringe members of the regime sat around their kitchen tables, expressing their true views only to family and close friends. A far-fetched analogy, of course, until you look at the narrowness of public discussion, not just on Israeli-Palestinian issues, but also on the threatened American attack on Iraq and the administration's war on terrorism in general.

When Tom Daschle, the Senate majority leader, suggested this spring that the war had failed because Osama bin Laden and Mullah Omar were still free, he was fiercely attacked and never dared to repeat the point. The campaign for an all-out attack on Iraq continues in full swing with none of the congressional opposition which marked the Gulf war a decade ago. John Bolton, the state department's most hawkish official, is taken seriously when he "names" countries with biological weapons programmes which the US claims the right to target with military strikes. No one contrasts his purported expertise with the fact that, after seven months, the FBI has failed to discover the whereabouts of the people or the laboratories in the US which produced and mailed anthrax-coated letters last autumn. If the administration is so ignorant about events on its own doorstep, why should anyone believe it knows what is going on in labs in Iraq, Iran or Cuba?

(SNIP)

On CNN's domestic news one morning their vacuous presenter Paula Zahn urged viewers to stay with her until after the break. "A new book which criticises American foreign policy and says the US has been guilty of terrorism has sold 160,000 copies. We'll have more," she announced.

Noam Chomsky's book, I wondered. Are they really going to let him appear? No such luck. The offending book was indeed by Chomsky but America's leading dissident was not invited on to the show. Like Soviet television in the 1970s, which regularly put up regime hacks to pillory the two giants of non-conformity, Andrei Sakharov and Alexander Solzhenitsyn, without giving them a say, Ms Zahn's guest was William Bennett, a Republican former cabinet minister. He proceeded to "explain" Chomsky's high sales with a flippant "kooks in our midst" argument. Many Americans were still in deep confusion after the shock of September 11, and some people were prepared to believe anything, he claimed.

Chomsky was unsurprised when I rang him later. "It's typical," he said. "CNN International interviews me a lot, but the US channel doesn't dare." Far from being depressed, Chomsky was in bullish mood. Like an intellectual rock star he is perpetually on the move, travelling to packed auditoria on campuses around the US and abroad. "I spend about an hour every night turning down email requests to speak," he said. He was off to Bogota in Colombia later that day.

Other professorial friends were not so gung ho about the extent of campus radicalism, in spite of recent peace marches in Washington and New York. But they agreed that universities are the only place for political discussion these days. "I hear there was a fantastic debate at Yale Law School recently," my highly placed Bush appointee reported. "Two Palestinian law students wiped the floor with Tom Friedman, the New York Times columnist."

The fascination, and frustration, of America has always been the way one society can produce so much optimistic vigour and risk-taking intellectual energy alongside a ruling culture of such boorish ignorance and cruelty. To judge from the east coast today, the middle-aged liberal intelligentsia is letting itself be intimidated into taking the wrong side. j.steele@guardian.co.uk

2//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting 16 May 2002
http://www.stratfor.com/fib/topStory_view.php?ID=204480

VENEZUELA: SECOND COUP IN THE MAKING?

STRATFOR sources within Venezuela's National Armed Forces (FAN) and a government civilian security entity predicted late May 15 that if President Hugo Chavez does not resign soon or is not legally and constitutionally removed from the presidency, a second military rebellion against his regime will erupt in a matter of weeks. Even if unsuccessful, sources said, the second attempt to topple Chavez likely will be violent and will affect at least a half-dozen major garrisons simultaneously -- demonstrating that the president does not control the deeply divided military.

If the reports are accurate, fighting likely would erupt between military units in different garrisons -- and the resulting bloodshed could push Venezuela to the edge of a civil war, especially if the Chavez regime calls on the civilian Bolivarian Circles for its defense. Even if Chavez were to leave office peacefully, however, Venezuela is likely to remain a deeply divided and conflictive society for years to come.

Jorge Olavarria, a seasoned political analyst who was Venezuela's ambassador to Britain and an early supporter of Chavez, told STRATFOR May 16, "While the Chavez government is bad, the myopic and mediocre opposition to Chavez is even worse."

The threat of forthcoming violence is significant. Interior and Justice Minister Diosdado Cabello told a National Assembly hearing on May 15 that Venezuela now has some 130,000 Bolivarian Circles, compared with only 80,000 a month ago, according to the daily El Universal.

(MORE)

3//The Independent 17 May 2002 01:33 GMT+1
http://argument.independent.co.uk/leading_articles/story.jsp?story=295868

ARGUMENT: WAS THE BRITISH DEPLOYMENT IN AFGANISTAN A PR STUNT?

We were given many reasons why almost 2,000 Royal Marines were urgently dispatched to the mountain strongholds of Afghanistan last month. They were going to supply crucial winter warfare expertise that American troops lacked. They were relieving a bloodied US unit that had failed to defeat al-Qa'ida. They were going to mop up the fiercest and most stubborn of the remaining terrorist fighters. We were told to brace for battles and body bags, but assured that only "our lads" could do the job.

Six weeks later, Operation Snipe is looking more and more like Carry On Up the Khyber. Britain's most ferocious have caught nary a glimpse of the enemy, let alone engaged anyone in combat. They have blown up four caves stuffed with weapons and ammunition, which may at one time have been controlled by al-Qa'ida, but probably belonged to fighters allied to the Interim Administration in Kabul (the "goodies" we are trying to support). And they are now falling ill, with some unidentified lurgy that could be anything from typhoid to gastro-enteritis. Eight men have been flown out of the country; 350 are in quarantine.

(SNIP)

The most convincing justification for Operation Snipe came from the Prime Minister, who said that the very presence of British troops was keeping this one area of Afghanistan clear of al-Qa'ida forces. But it is hard to escape the impression that the real purpose was to save Washington from accusations of unilateralism by making Afghan combat operations look more "international". There must be many better ways of using the Royal Marines.

4//Asia Times Online May 17, 2002
http://www.atimes.com/ind-pak/DE17Df01.html

THE BUCK STOPS WITH PAKISTAN
By Ajay Darshan Behera

Dr Ajay Darshan Behera is a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, Washington DC.

Recent developments do not augur well for the United States-led war against terrorism. Seven months into the war, it is becoming apparent that the Taliban and al-Qaeda are definitely not "on the run".

It is now revealed that they are reorganizing on the quiet in mountain hideouts in Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is also suspected that Osama bin Laden and his deputies and some important Taliban leaders may be holed up in the tribal areas of Pakistan's North West Frontier Province (NWFP).

The resurgence of the Taliban and al-Qaeda and their increasing boldness in resorting to guerrilla tactics to re-engage US forces has come as a surprise to many. But it shouldn't, as it was inevitable. The irony is that since the beginning of the war this inevitability has been overlooked.

(SNIP)

Further, if there was any place outside Afghanistan where bin Laden would be welcome and receive hospitality it was in the tribal areas of the NWFP. The Pashtun code of honor - Pashtunwali - would not allow the tribals to betray a guest. One may recall the Taliban's refusal to hand over bin Laden to the US on the grounds that he was their guest. Given the porous nature of the Durand Line that divides Afghanistan and Pakistan, which anyway the Pashtuns do not recognize, it was clear where the remnants and the leadership of the Taliban and al-Qaeda were headed.

But instead of taking determined measures to plug their exit routes, the US in its keenness on breaking the al-Qaeda network extended itself to the Philippines, Yemen and Georgia and neglected the backyard of its own area of operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan. As early as November last year there were reports that Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters were creeping into the tribal areas in Pakistan. This was vehemently contested by Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf, who, while deploying extra forces on the border, declared that no al-Qaeda would be allowed to enter Pakistan.

(SNIP)

Of course, increasingly, his efforts were being viewed with skepticism. Numerous reports in the US media recently seem to suggest that he has been playing a double game. However, what is interesting is that for every lapse or deliberate act he seems to have credible answers - which seem to satisfy his American interlocutors.

The presence of al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Pakistani territory is explained away: it is impossible to seal the border. Why have the terrorists he arrested in his anti-terrorist crackdown been released? Because of his inability to hold them indefinitely without due process of law. Who were the people he managed to evacuate from Kunduz? They were all misguided and misled youth. The US also has not helped its own cause by allowing the evacuation. This definitely doesn't look like an unconditional war on terrorism. However explained, all these developments have definitely contributed to sustaining the Taliban and al-Qaeda and their penetration into Pakistan.

The capture of Abu Zubaydah, believed to be the number three in al-Qaeda, and a large number of al-Qaeda operatives on March 27, of all places in Faisalabad, Pakistan, and the May 8 terrorist attack in Karachi which killed 14 men, including 11 French, if actually carried out by al-Qaeda, would mean that al-Qaeda has spread its network wide in Pakistan. And to believe that it did this without any support from the jihadi groups within Pakistan is to confer magical organizational capabilities of astronomical proportions on al-Qaeda.

Pakistan-based terrorist groups such as Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, Jaish-e-Mohammad and other groups who were brothers in arms and shared training camps with al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, facilitated their mobility within Pakistan, and probably still do. Musharraf, by releasing their leaders and other cadres, is helping them regroup under new names. Also, there is very little evidence to suggest that he has undermined their ability to carry out terrorist activities. Most of his measures have been cosmetic. Whatever justification he may use at this point for releasing them, the fact is that it will come to haunt him if it is proved that al-Qaeda was behind the attack in Karachi, and if more such attacks are carried out. He is not helping his own cause. But does he realize it? Being the tactician that he is, he may keep fighting the battles one after the other and think that he is winning, but eventually he may just lose.

Unfortunately, no one can tell him that except, perhaps, the Americans. They, after overlooking the inevitable for a fairly long time, are now in an intensified search for bin Laden and his cohorts in Pakistan, having conducted joint operations with Pakistani security forces. The reaction of the Pashtun tribals to the incursions of US forces into their territory has not been favorable - they have threatened to enter the war themselves.

There are ominous signs that if the fugitives are to be captured, the US-led military campaign has to broaden into Pakistan, but that is not going to be easy. The painful reality is that if the terrorist infrastructure and network is to be broken, it has to begin from inside Pakistan, and not the other way round. From the US perspective, it is now time to "smoke out the terrorists" and their leaders before they ensconce themselves comfortably in familiar territory and plan the attack on their next big target.

5//Russianobserver.com Issued on 16.05 MST
http://www.russianobserver.com/stories/02/05/16/1070/15373.html

WILL THE BUBBLE BURST AT THE RUSSIA-US SUMMIT?

A "man on the street" opinion poll on NATO-Russia relations, in which 46% of Russians asked responded that they were against entry into the alliance, presents a very different picture to the one the Russian political elite has been disseminating in recent weeks. Approximately 34% of those queried indicated they were in favor of entry, with 20% undecided.

The results of the poll, which was carried out by the Public Opinion Foundation May 4-5th, demonstrates that the Russian public is far from certain that Russia should be allying itself with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. 52% of the 1,500 people asked said the bloc posed a threat to Russia's security, with only 31% responding that it did not, which would suggest that for many, the cold war is still a reality.

However, as far as the U.S. and Russian Foreign Ministers, Colin Powell and Igor Ivanov are concerned, the cold war is now over. This was confirmed when they speaking at a press conference in Reykjavik on Tuesday.

But the Russian mass media has resisted getting swept away by the "new era" rhetoric, remaining suspicious of the new alliance. Coverage of the recent NATO and Russia ministerial talks focuses on the limits of the soon to be established Russia-NATO Council, and which side had gained/lost the most in the NATO deal.

The new joint policy-making body will take cooperation to another level by enabling Russia and NATO to work together on security issues, but two of the core features of NATO membership will not hold for Russia, namely the right to veto NATO actions and the principle that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all.

(SNIP)

Meanwhile, since President Bush boasted recently that he is no more worried about Moscow's nuclear arms than about Britain's, experts are worried that the U.S. political elite might be getting ahead of itself.

Michael McFaul, an expert on the U.S.-Russia relationship, has expressed concern that American leaders are not seeing the real Russia. He said that there was always an understandable risk of American leaders seeing the country through the eyes of the people they dealt with in Moscow, Reuters reported Wednesday.

Progress in bilateral relations, Mr. McFaul said, could lead to U.S. leaders forgetting that Russia is not a consolidated democracy, and blind them to the threat that Russia could still slide into autocracy in the next decade.

If the American leadership has been looking at Russia through rose-tinted glass, they will soon realize their mistake. Sentiments of the average Russian on the street towards the U.S. will come to the surface when President Bush makes his first official visit to Russia next week.

6//The Globe and Mail POSTED AT 4:15 PM EDT Thursday, May 16
http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/RTGAMArticleHTMLTemplate/C/20020516/
wbord0516?hub=homeBN&tf=tgam%252Frealtime%252Ffullstory.html&cf=tgam/
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0516&archive=RTGAM&site=Front&ad_page_name=breakingnews

BORDER SECURITY PLANS MOVE FORWARD
By Darren Yourk
Globe and Mail Update

The creation of a more efficient and secure U.S.-Canadian border is close to becoming reality, Deputy Prime Minister John Manley and U.S. Director of Homeland Security Tom Ridge said Thursday.

Mr. Manley and Mr. Ridge met in Buffalo, N.Y., Thursday to continue discussions on the 30-point Smart Border Action Plan they signed last December.

Both men said "considerable" progress has been made.

(SNIP)

Topping the list of border initiatives is the expansion of the Nexus program that is designed to let low-risk frequent travelers with special identification passes speed through customs at major crossings at the Canada-U.S. border.

Mr. Ridge said the two countries are on track to initiate the Nexus program at three ports of entry along the B.C./Washington State land border by this summer.

More than 500 million people enter and leave the United States every year. Along the Canadian border there are 111 million crossings through 425 border points.

(SNIP)

Nexus cards are currently held by about 5,000 individuals who make regular trips across the Bluewater Bridge between Sarnia, Ont., and Port Huron, Mich. They've been interviewed by the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service or the Canada Customs and Revenue Agency, which have certified that they pose no security threat.

Mr. Manley said the two countries are close to finalizing a plan to start Nexus at high-volume border crossings in Southern Ontario, New York State and Michigan, including at the Buffalo/Niagara crossing, by the end of the year.

(MORE)

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© 2002, Gloria R. Lalumia
insight@zianet.com

More Stuff at: http://www.zianet.com/insightanalytical

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