World Media Watch for May 15, 2002

BUZZFLASH NOTE: Once again, these are the views and perspectives of the individual papers, not of BuzzFlash or Gloria. They offer BuzzFlash readers a way of reading what other nations are saying about the crisis, whether we like it or not. We repeat: This is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

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1//The Jerusalem Post, Israel--ANALYSIS: WHAT WASN'T SAID IS IMPORTANT (As a result, it is safe to say the Mitchell and Tenet plans - with well-defined stages that call for cease-fires, cooling-off periods, and confidence-building measures - will no longer be the defining mechanisms to get the two sides out of the crisis.)

2//Gulf News Online, United Arab Emirates--ZAHIR SUPPORTERS WORKING FOR CONSTITUTIONAL MONARCHY (However, any talk of Zahir Shah's return as a constitutional monarch is bound to be controversial and divisive. Powerful figures in the ruling Northern Alliance have already spoken against restoration of the monarchy and termed it a retrogressive move.)

3//Khaleej Times, United Arab Emirates--IRAQ URGES US TO OPT FOR "DIALOGUE" RATHER THAN "THREATS (Babel's call for a dialogue with the United States comes two days after another Iraqi newspaper, the ruling Baath party's Ath-Thawra, issued a similar call to Britain, urging London to distance itself from US policy on Iraq.)

4//Pravda, Russia--AMERICA GOT TREATY, AND RUSSIA NOTHING (George W. Bush needs the treaty to shut up the democrats who criticize him for the ABM Treaty withdrawal. Indeed, elections are coming up, and President Bush needs additional votes. And what is Russia's profit from the treaty? Russia gained nothing. Is not the situation the same as last year, when Russia got nothing at all in exchange for the promise to close bases in Cuba and Vietnam?)

5//Japan Today, Japan--U.S. TROOPS IN THAILAND FOR ANTI-TERROR EXERCISE (More than 20,000 troops from the United States, Thailand and Singapore began annual war games in Thailand on Tuesday, which for the first time include training in battling terrorism.)

6//The Guardian, UK--COMMENT: AILING JAPANESE ECONOMY RUNS OUT OF OPTIONS (International credit rating agencies are about to downgrade Japan's rating to below Botswana's despite howls of protests from the world's second largest economy...Meanwhile, the banking system threatens to implode. Japanese banks sit on the world's largest debt pile, about Y43 trillion [£227bn].)

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1//The Jerusalem Post 4 Sivan 5762, Wednesday May 15, 2002 (04:12)
http://www.jpost.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename
=JPost/A/JPArticle/Full&cid=1021378903061

ANALYSIS: WHAT WASN'T SAID IS IMPORTANT
By Herb Keinon

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's speech in the Knesset yesterday was more noteworthy for what was omitted than for what was said.

Two days after going head to head with the Likud central committee over a Palestinian state, Sharon dared not mention the "s" word.

If the Likud central committee was truly worried Sharon would somehow buy into the Ahmed Qurei-Shimon Peres diplomatic proposals calling for the immediate establishment of a Palestinian state on land currently under Palestinian Authority control, followed by negotiations for a final agreement, Sharon made no mention of that possibility in outlining his diplomatic plan.

Nor did he mention the Mitchell and Tenet cease-fire plans, heretofore the road maps for getting out of the current impasse.

Sharon also pointedly refrained from referring even once to a regional or international conference. By paying attention to the omissions, one can get a sense of which way the diplomatic winds are blowing.

(SNIP)

As a result, it is safe to say the Mitchell and Tenet plans - with well-defined stages that call for cease-fires, cooling-off periods, and confidence-building measures - will no longer be the defining mechanisms to get the two sides out of the crisis.

In Sharon's mind, the impasse now can only end if the violence and incitement come to an end, and if the PA undergoes drastic reform.

"When these two basic conditions are met, we can enter into an agreement in stages, including a longer-term interim agreement where the relations between us and the Palestinians will be determined," Sharon said.

(SNIP)

Twenty months into the violence, and the framework for getting the sides out of the crisis has slowly evolved, at least in Sharon's eyes. He first elucidated this new framework in Washington last week, and formalized it before the Knesset yesterday. In short, Tenet and Mitchell are out; Palestinian reform is in.

2//Gulf News Online Dubai:Wednesday, May 15, 2002
http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/news.asp?ArticleID=51081

ZAHIR SUPPORTERS WORKING FOR CONSTITUTIONAL MONARCHY
Peshawar |By Rahimullah Yusufzai |

Supporters of Afghanistan's former king, Mohammed Zahir Shah, are quietly working on proposals to establish a constitutional monarchy, although none of them is willing to go public with their proposals for now.

If the circumstances allow, they may raise the issue during the emergency Loya Jirga scheduled to begin in Kabul on June 10.

The 87-year old Zahir Shah, who returned to Afghanistan on April 17 after more than 29 years in self-exile in Italy, is expected to preside over the Loya Jirga. The former monarch has never expressed his wish to be restored as the king. He has also refrained from discussing the possibility of establishing a constitutional monarchy in his war-ravaged homeland.

Nevertheless, a few of his family members and some supporters have not shied away from talking about these possibilities in the post-Taliban period. His followers at home and abroad have been arguing that Afghanistan needed a fatherly figure like Zahir Shah to heal old wounds, initiate national reconciliation and obtain international recognition and assistance for the country.

(SNIP)

However, any talk of Zahir Shah's return as a constitutional monarch is bound to be controversial and divisive.

Powerful figures in the ruling Northern Alliance have already spoken against restoration of the monarchy and termed it a retrogressive move.

(SNIP)

The royalists, lacking in armed men, are gaining in strength with support from common people who are fed up with the warlords. But the Northern Alliance, or whatever is left of it following desertions, continues to dominate the interim government on account of its armed power. It also enjoys the backing of Russia, Iran, India and other regional powers.

Much would depend on the position taken by the U.S. and its Western allies about the future of Afghanistan. It was primarily the decision of the Western powers to bring Zahir Shah back to Afghanistan and the world generally welcomed the move.

If the Americans, Canadians, Australians and the Europeans so decide, Zahir Shah could be made a constitutional monarch. The Loya Jirga would then be asked to endorse the decision. There would be some protests but the move would most likely succeed.

But the Western nations will not back the proposal if they feel that making Zahir Shah the constitutional monarch will only create more splits in the uneasy coalition between the royalists and the Northern Alliance.

3//Khaleej Times 14 May 2002. 2 Rabi Al Awwal, 1423.
http://www.khaleejtimes.co.ae/middleeast.htm#storyh

IRAQ URGES US TO OPT FOR "DIALOGUE" RATHER THAN "THREATS

BAGHDAD - AFP - The United States should engage in a "dialogue" with Iraq instead of resorting to "threats and aggression," a newspaper run by President Saddam Hussein's elder son said on Tuesday.

"Dialogue (with Washington) is welcome provided it is based on recognition of people's rights ... and respect of their choices, irrespective of US might," said Babel, run by Uday Saddam Hussein. "It is imperative for the US administration to reassess its policy vis-a-vis Iraq if it wants to restore its credibility with its allies and deal with hot spots in the world, chiefly our region," the paper wrote.

Washington should realize that Iraq "sincerely seeks to promote stability (in the Middle East) based on the understanding of mutual legitimate interests ... without resorting to threats and aggression," Babel said. Iraq will "not concede its national interests even if this should require it to fight the US arsenal," it added. Babel's call for a dialogue with the United States comes two days after another Iraqi newspaper, the ruling Baath party's Ath-Thawra, issued a similar call to Britain, urging London to distance itself from US policy on Iraq.

(MORE)

4//Pravda 4:55 2002-05-14
http://english.pravda.ru/main/2002/05/14/28675.html

AMERICA GOT TREATY, AND RUSSIA NOTHING
Dmitry Chirkin
Translated by Maria Gousseva

Yesterday presidents of Russia and the USA almost simultaneously made reports on the same problem, nuclear arsenal reduction namely. In both reports words "breakthrough in relations" and "a new era" were used. George W. Bush said Washington was ready to sign a treaty with Russia on nuclear arsenal reduction to 1,700 - 2,200 warheads. He said, the agreement would be signed on May 23 in Russia. In Bush's words, "This treaty will liquidate the legacy of the Cold War."

Until recently experts doubted the treaty would be ratified at all, as contradictions between Russia and the USA were too great. Russia insisted that all warheads were to be destroyed, at the same time when the USA planned to put warheads for "deep storage" for later use. Problem of warheads utilization control was not settled as well. Russian and American expert groups have been working on the problems for months, but no results were achieved. And suddenly the USA announces readiness to sign the treaty, that attaches at the same time more importance to the document.

Russia's response was soon. Although reluctantly, but the Kremlin consented to partial stockpiling warheads. Earlier Russia had insisted warheads were to be destroyed completely. Experts say, Russia decided to reconcile itself to the fact that US's nuclear strategy cannot be changed, and the treaty will save Vladimir Putin's face. It is to be added here, settlement of the problem that is really painful for Russia will let it hope for solution of other important problems (NATO - Russia relations, incorporation into WTO, soonest conferring of a market economy status to Russia, presence of NATO troops in Central Asia and Caucasus region, Iraq problem, etc.)

The president's optimism is not shared by others. Foreign Policy Association's vice-president Sergey Kortunov said, "We need a perfect treaty. To my mind, it is better not to sign any agreement at all than to sign a bad one."

Russia's Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov tried to smooth gaffes and clumsiness of Russian diplomacy and announced, the treaty planned for signing by the presidents was a provisional treaty, not a final one. "It will be further finished off", Russia's foreign minister said.

(SNIP)

George W. Bush needs the treaty to shut up the democrats who criticize him for the ABM Treaty withdrawal. Indeed, elections are coming up, and President Bush needs additional votes. And what is Russia's profit from the treaty? Russia gained nothing. Is not the situation the same as last year, when Russia got nothing at all in exchange for the promise to close bases in Cuba and Vietnam?

5//Japan Today Wednesday, May 15, 2002
http://www.japantoday.com/e/?content=news&cat=7&id=215545

U.S. TROOPS IN THAILAND FOR ANTI-TERROR EXERCISE

Tuesday, May 14, 2002 at 18:00 JST
BANGKOK - More than 20,000 troops from the United States, Thailand and Singapore began annual war games in Thailand on Tuesday, which for the first time include training in battling terrorism.

The "Cobra Gold 2002" exercise - which involves 14,000 U.S. soldiers, 7,000 Thais and an unspecified number of Singaporean troops - is one of the biggest involving American forces in the Asia-Pacific region this year, officials said.

(SNIP)

The exercise will be observed by 18 nations, including China and Vietnam.

A senior U.S. military official told Reuters he could not divulge the anti-terrorism scenario being played out during the exercise, which will run until the end of the month.

He said the main focus of the exercise was on peacekeeping, but that troops would also practice hunting down small bands of combatants and drug traffickers.

(SNIP)

Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines this month signed a pact to cooperate in hunting down militant groups, and Thailand has agreed to join the effort.

Singapore has said it is willing to help in anti-terror efforts under the agreement, but has so far stopped short of joining it. (Reuters News)

6//The Guardian Tuesday May 14, 2002
http://www.guardian.co.uk/japan/story/0,7369,715332,00.html

COMMENT: AILING JAPANESE ECONOMY RUNS OUT OF OPTIONS

As Japan's debt rating sinks to the same level as Botswana's, it may be time for some unconventional medicine, writes Mark Tran.

International credit rating agencies are about to downgrade Japan's rating to below Botswana's despite howls of protests from the world's second largest economy.

It will be the latest humiliation for a country that not so long ago was seen as poised to overtake the US as the world's leading economic power. The idea seems laughable now but in the late 1980s and early 1990s, pseudo experts churned out books predicting how Japan was about to buy up America, from its film studios in Hollywood to its prestige skyscrapers in Manhattan.

Instead America reigns supreme, its economic problems notwithstanding, while Japan remains mired in an economic morass. Japan has entered its third recession in 10 years, locked in the most serious debt and deflationary spiral to hit an industrialised country since the global slump of the 1930s. Successive Japanese governments have tried to resuscitate the economy through vast spending public programmes and low interest rates - now at zero. But the measures have proved futile.

(SNIP)

Meanwhile, the banking system threatens to implode. Japanese banks sit on the world's largest debt pile, about Y43 trillion (£227bn). The Japanese government has set up a special state agency, the Resolution and Collection Corporation, to buy up bad loans, but the RCC is making snail-like progress having bought just Y63bn since January.

In setting up the RCC, Japan is following in the footsteps of the US, which set up a similar organisation to deal with the savings and loan crisis in the 1980s, when hundreds of financial institutions went bust after recklessly expanding from mortgage lending. That episode cost about $300bn in taxpayer money.

Any number of suggestions have been made to extricate Japan from its current plight. The most extreme would be to push many of Japan's troubled banks into bankruptcy, a sort of shock therapy that would "cleanse" the country of all those dud banks. Shock therapy always sounds great in practice, but you never know what unsavoury politicians lurk in the undergrowth to capitalise on social and political turmoil. As history teaches us, economic upheaval can easily pave the way for demagogues to exploit people's fears and insecurities.

(SNIP)

While Mr Koizumi is right to press on with structural reforms and with efforts to clean up Japan's banking system, that promises to be a long drawn-out process. Japan needs some medicine that will work sooner than that. One ingenious idea comes from Paul Krugman, the American economist, who argues that the Bank of Japan should be given an inflation target and be encouraged to print money to reach it.

"What Japan needs to do is promise borrowers that there will be inflation in the future," he argues. "If it can do that, then the effective 'real' interest rate on borrowing will be negative: borrowers will expect to repay less in real terms than the amount they borrow. As a result they will be willing to spend more, which is what Japan needs."

(MORE)

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© 2002, Gloria R. Lalumia
insight@zianet.com

More Stuff at: http://www.zianet.com/insightanalytical

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