World Media Watch for May 10, 2002

BUZZFLASH NOTE: Once again, these are the views and perspectives of the individual papers, not of BuzzFlash or Gloria. They offer BuzzFlash readers a way of reading what other nations are saying about the crisis, whether we like it or not. We repeat: This is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

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1//Statfor Strategic Forecasting, Austin, TX--HAMAS HOLDS ADVANTAGE IN GAZA CAMPAIGN (Unlike the recent West Bank operation, where urban guerrilla warfare was confined to a few places, an Israeli military incursion into Gaza will likely be bloodier and more intensive.)

2//The Hindustan Times, India--US FORCES ARRIVE IN AGRA FOR JOINT EXERCISES (US special forces from the Pacific Command have started arriving here for the two-week long first ever armed forces joint exercises with Indian para-commandoes kicking off in Agra from Saturday.)

3//Japan Today, Japan--COMMENTARY: BUSH'S MASTER OIL PLAN (By 2020, the report notes, America "will import nearly two of every three barrels of oil (it consumes) - a condition of increased dependency on foreign powers that do not always have America's interests at heart." This means, of course, that American efforts to obtain increased supplies foreign oil will require more than trade deals and diplomacy - - it will also require the threat of or the use of force to dissuade hostile forces from attempting to obstruct the flow of petroleum to the United States. This, in turn, will require an enhanced U.S. capacity to operate militarily in areas of likely fighting over oil.)

4//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong--THREAT OF CIVIL WARS LOOMS IN AZERBAIJAN AND GEORGIA (Armenia, Iran, Russia, Turkey and the United States have ties with and commitments to the governments and/or separatist forces, apart from their economic and political stakes in the Caucasus. Those realities will make it difficult, if not impossible, for them to remain indifferent to the outbreak of civil war in the Caucasus.)

5//Sydney Morning Herald, Australia--"CYBER JIHAD" WARNING TO TERROR EXPERTS (...much more cooperation and information-sharing between governments and business was needed to combat the threats. Australia, Britain and Canada had moved in this direction, but the US response was still hampered by agency turf wars and personal rivalries...)

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1//Statfor Strategic Forecasting 9 May 2002
http://www.stratfor.com/fib/topStory_view.php?ID=204414

HAMAS HOLDS ADVANTAGE IN GAZA CAMPAIGN

Summary

Israel began preparations May 9 for an offensive in the Gaza Strip, massing troops along the border and calling up reservists. The government has identified militant group Hamas, which took credit for a suicide bombing this week, as its key target. An operation in Gaza, however, will be substantively different from the recent campaign in the West Bank and likely will be more intensive.

Analysis

Israel massed troops overnight on the outskirts of the Gaza Strip in preparation for a military offensive in the tiny territory, following a suicide bombing near Tel Aviv earlier this week that killed 16 Israelis. The military will reportedly target bases belonging to militant group Hamas, which took credit for the bombing, but the operation will reportedly not be as wide-scale as the recent Israeli offensive in the West Bank, the Israeli daily Ha'aretz reported May 9.

STRATFOR has written extensively on the probable shape and scope of an Israeli military campaign in the Gaza Strip. Hamas -- the government's identified target, which is dispersed throughout Gaza and engaged in both security and humanitarian operations -- enjoys broad popular support and is well trained in guerrilla tactics and countermeasures. Unlike the recent West Bank operation, where urban guerrilla warfare was confined to a few places, an Israeli military incursion into Gaza will likely be bloodier and more intensive.

Hamas is an acronym for Harakat al-Muqawamah al-Islamiyya (the Islamic Resistance Movement). A Palestinian offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, the organization mirrors its Egyptian counterpart by balancing its militant activities with grassroots organizing and social services.

Hamas administers thousands of mosques, schools, hospitals, clinics, youth groups, athletic clubs, daycare and food-distribution centers in Gaza, providing the bulk of social services to residents. According to the Jewish Post newspaper, 95 percent of the group's $40 million to $70 million budget goes to social services.

Such a strategy gives the group broad popular support and also allows it to operate openly throughout the territories. This poses the greatest challenge to an Israeli military offensive aimed at disrupting Hamas' suicide-bombing network. Israel's goal will be to take out Hamas' infrastructure; the problem for them is the group's infrastructure primarily consists of people. Without intelligence to identify specific leaders, the Israeli military will implement a broadside assault on the entire Hamas organization, including its social services network in all of the Palestinian areas in Gaza.

(SNIP)

Moreover, both residents in the Gaza Strip and Hamas members are distinctly different in their approach to the conflict with Israel from their West Bank counterparts. Gazans are a much poorer, less educated populace, and their attitude toward Israel is more hard-line and radical. This lends itself to stauncher resistance and a greater willingness to engage in guerrilla activities.

In fact, some of the most psychologically devastating attacks Palestinians have launched successfully against Israel since the start of the intifada almost 20 months ago have occurred in Gaza. Palestinian militants in the territory have twice this year successfully ambushed and destroyed Israeli Merkava tanks, considered one of the most indestructible tanks in the world.

The Iz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the militant wing of Hamas, is also known to use timed and remote-controlled bombs, commando attacks and armed ambushes including assaults on both military targets and Israeli settlers. Reports already indicate that Gazan residents have prepared sand barricades rumored to be armed with explosives to block an IDF advance into the cities and refugee camps.

Another advantage the Palestinians in Gaza have is access to underground tunnels to Egypt. Though the Israeli military continually monitors activities along the border and shuts down these tunnels as they are discovered, reports suggest that some continue operating and are being used to smuggle weapons in from Egypt. The Gazans are also making their own weaponry, including the short-range Qassam rocket.

Hamas uses the Gaza Strip's compactness and population density to its advantage, maintaining a social network that ensures support among the population and a ready supply of recruits. Though accurate force numbers for the group are unknown, Hamas reportedly has a dedicated group of fighters that number in the hundreds and supporters in the tens of thousands.

Positioned on the edge of Gaza, the IDF faces a geographically smaller and yet more difficult operation. Given the circumstances, the geography and the attitude, the IDF must consider the entire Gazan population hostile and potential combatants, which is a force multiplier for Hamas.

2//The Hindustan Times New Delhi, May 9
http://www.hindustantimes.com/nonfram/100502/dlnat04.asp

US FORCES ARRIVE IN AGRA FOR JOINT EXERCISES
PTI

US special forces from the Pacific Command have started arriving here for the two-week long first ever armed forces joint exercises with Indian para-commandoes kicking off in Agra from Saturday.

The 200 soldiers from Special Operations Forces, representing the elite Delta Force, rangers, marine and naval seals, would join a band of 200 Indian para-commandoes in special exercises, highly placed Army sources here said.

(SNIP)

The special forces joint exercises coincide with exercises between the two countries now on in Alaska involving specialised mountain warfare troops.

The US has over the years been very keen to share experiences of Indian forces in the world's highest battlefield in Siachen glacier.

3//Japan Today Friday, May 10, 2002
http://japantoday.com/e/?content=comment&id=180

COMMENTARY: BUSH'S MASTER OIL PLAN
Michael T Klare
(The writer is a professor of world security studies at Hampshire College in Amherst, Massachusetts, and the author of "Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict" (Metropolitan Books / Henry Holt, 2001).

(Pacific News Service) With so many new international crises erupting every day, it is hard to detect any clear forward direction to American U.S. foreign policy. At times, it appears that providing a response to the latest upheaval is about all that Washington can accomplish.

But beneath the surface of day-to-day crisis management, one can see signs of an overarching plan for U.S. policy: a strategy of global oil acquisition.

In recent weeks, the Bush administration has taken bold steps to implement this strategy in several far-flung regions of the world. In the Caspian Sea basin - said to harbor the second biggest reservoir of untapped petroleum after the Persian Gulf - the United States is building new military bases and providing training to local defense forces. In Colombia, U.S.-equipped government forces will soon be guarding the Occidental Petroleum Company's Cano Limon oil pipeline. And in Venezuela - America's third largest supplier of oil - U.S. embassy personnel reportedly met with leaders of an abortive coup against President Hugo Chavez.

All of these developments are obviously tied to other foreign policy considerations besides oil. The United States clearly seeks to promote stability and fight terrorism in these and other areas of the world.

But it is also true that the areas that are garnering the greatest degree of attention from Washington - the Middle East, the Caspian Sea basin, and the Andean region - are also areas that figure prominently in the administration's long-term energy strategy.

(SNIP)

The only way to significantly reduce imports is to increase the fuel efficiency of U.S. motor vehicles - but because President Bush is reluctant to require this, the administration has instead launched a global effort to expand U.S. access to foreign sources of petroleum.

(SNIP)

In advocating these measures, the Cheney team is well aware that U.S. efforts to gain access to increasing amounts of foreign petroleum could provoke resistance in some oil-producing regions. By 2020, the report notes, America "will import nearly two of every three barrels of oil (it consumes) - a condition of increased dependency on foreign powers that do not always have America's interests at heart."

This means, of course, that American efforts to obtain increased supplies foreign oil will require more than trade deals and diplomacy - - it will also require the threat of or the use of force to dissuade hostile forces from attempting to obstruct the flow of petroleum to the United States. This, in turn, will require an enhanced U.S. capacity to operate militarily in areas of likely fighting over oil.

It is for this reason that Washington is expanding the American military presence in the Persian Gulf area and beginning to establish such a presence in the Caspian basin (notably in Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan). And while these efforts have been accelerated since Sept 11, it is important to note that they began well before that date.

American efforts to protect the flow of oil is evident in other measures undertaken by the Bush administration. These include a $100 million grant to the Colombian army for the establishment of a special brigade whose main function will be to guard the Cano Limon pipeline against guerrilla attack.

The administration is also boosting U.S. military aid to Nigeria, the leading African supplier of oil to the United States. And while there is no evidence of a direct U.S. link to the recent coup attempt in Venezuela, White House officials have repeatedly criticized President Hugo Chavez - an ultra-nationalist who has resisted increased American involvement in Venezuela's oil industry - and opened the U.S. embassy to visits by leaders of the anti-Chavez opposition. Washington did not condemn the short-lived coup.

4//Asia Times Online May 10, 2002
http://www.atimes.com/c-asia/DE10Ag01.html

THREAT OF CIVIL WARS LOOMS IN AZERBAIJAN AND GEORGIA
By Hooman Peimani

(Dr Hooman Peimani works as an independent consultant with international organizations in Geneva and does research in international relations)

As a land-link between Asia and Europe, the Caucasus has been unstable for more than a decade. The three Caucasian states of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia gained independence when the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991. They have since experienced instability in one form or another, including civil wars in Georgia and Azerbaijan.

Ceasefire agreements ended those conflicts in 1993 and 1994, respectively, but left their root causes intact. In the absence of peace agreements, the persistence of unsettled issues has frustrated both their governments and their populations. They have suffered not only from the civil wars themselves, but also from the existing no-war-no-peace state of affairs, an unpredictable situation discouraging economic activity and preventing normal life.

Against this background, certain factors have created an environment conducive to the resumption of civil war in both countries in the near future. They include the worsening economic situation, the expansion of social discontent with the status quo, the growing opposition to the governments and the growing inter-elite conflict. A new round of civil war will not only engulf Azerbaijan and Georgia in instability, but could potentially develop into bloody regional and international conflicts.

(SNIP)

In the absence of peaceful settlements to the prolonged conflicts in Georgia and Azerbaijan, the resumption of civil war will be a predictable end to the deadlocked situation. In such a case, the hostility will not be confined to the two countries only. Armenia, Iran, Russia, Turkey and the United States have ties with and commitments to the governments and/or separatist forces, apart from their economic and political stakes in the Caucasus. Those realities will make it difficult, if not impossible, for them to remain indifferent to the outbreak of civil war in the Caucasus.

As neighboring countries, Armenia, Iran, Russia and Turkey would also be concerned about the spillover of the civil wars into their countries, which are linked to the Caucasus through a variety of ethnic, linguistic, geographical, historical, and religious ties. Thus, economic interests, geographical realities, political considerations, security imperatives and natural ties could drag the five mentioned regional and non-regional countries into the Georgian and Azeri civil wars. Hopefully, the predictably dire consequences of such a scenario for the Caucasus, its neighboring regions and world peace as a whole should create an additional incentive for all the interested parties to find peaceful settlements to the prolonged ethnic conflicts in Georgia and Azerbaijan.

5//Sydney Morning Herald May 9 2002
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/05/09/1020906532860.html

"CYBER JIHAD" WARNING TO TERROR EXPERTS

Hobart--A "cyber jihad" could be launched against the West as terrorists moved from the real world to an Internet-based virtual world, a US expert warned today.

Michele Zanini, a consultant with the think-tank McKinsey and Company, said terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda were already making huge use of the web for communications, propaganda, recruitment and target data.

Another expert, Rand Europe senior policy analyst Kevin O'Brien said there was potential for terrorists to cause huge losses to the West by damaging information technology systems.

Dr Zanini and Dr O'Brien were speaking at an international conference on global terror in Hobart.

Dr O'Brien said Western-developed IT had become the "great equaliser" as it was exploited by terrorists and rogue states. He said the cyber world was chaotic and without boundaries and Western security agencies were traditionally ill-equipped to deal with its threats.

(SNIP)

In the wake of September 11, it was clear terrorists were using the Internet as a weapon of war, the experts said. Terrorists used the Net to gather intelligence, including target information, and counter-intelligence.

They made and moved money on it and were suspected of even manipulating stocks for profit.

They could also use it for worldwide planning and coordination, propaganda, psychological terrorism and rumour-mongering.

Rogue states could equally use it and China and Taiwan were already battling a cyber war, according to the experts.

(SNIP)

Dr O'Brien said much more cooperation and information-sharing between governments and business was needed to combat the threats.

Australia, Britain and Canada had moved in this direction, but the US response was still hampered by agency turf wars and personal rivalries, he said.

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© 2002, Gloria R. Lalumia
insight@zianet.com

More Stuff at: http://www.zianet.com/insightanalytical

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