World Media Watch for April 22, 2002

BUZZFLASH NOTE: Once again, these are the views and perspectives of the individual papers, not of BuzzFlash or Gloria. They offer BuzzFlash readers a way of reading what other nations are saying about the crisis, whether we like it or not. We repeat: This is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

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1//The Independent, UK--FRENCH VOTERS MUST NOW CONFRONT THEIR ELECTORAL NIGHTMARE (Many left-wing voters may stay at home, as they did yesterday. But hundreds of thousands of others, though they mistrust and despise Mr Chirac, will vote for the incumbent President to block the far right.)

2//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting, Austin, TX--SAUDIS DESPERATE FOR RUSSIAN HELP (A possible Saudi-Iraq-Iran coalition to resist U.S. pressure -- even a temporary one built out of necessity -- would entirely reshape regional politics and pose a significant dilemma to the United States....together they could bring greater political and economic pressure to bear on the smaller Persian Gulf states, upon which Washington grows increasingly reliant.)

3//The Indian Express, India--MUSHARRAF STOPS RALLY AGAINST REFERENDUM (Jamaat officials said they met Punjab officials on Saturday to negotiate details for the caravan and were baffled by the sudden change of heart and arrest of several party leaders at their homes early Sunday morning. A Jamaat case against the referendum is due to go before Pakistan's Supreme Court on Monday....While the members of the country's influential bar associations took to the streets on Saturday in Lahore opposing the referendum, Hussain [Jamaat chief], who was the first to file the petition in the Supreme Court, said the judiciary itself was on trial.)

4//Pakistan News Service, Pakistan--MILITARY STAND OFF CAUSING ECONOMIC DEVASTATION (The World Bank in its latest report on Pakistan said that the money being spent by Pakistan and India to maintain troops on the border was something both of them could "ill afford" and that Islamabad's economic viability and growth would be enhanced by normalisation of ties with New Delhi... At its worst, the Kashmir crisis could end in a nuclear exchange that would wreak enormous physical and economic devastation in both India and Pakistan," it said.)

5//The Philippine Daily Inquirer, Philippines--US COULD WORSEN PROBLEM: THINKTANK (The growing US military presence in the Philippines to help the government crush Islamic extremists could spark an escalation of the conflict, a risk consultancy warned. Washington also risks getting bogged down in a protracted and costly conflict in the southern Philippines if its role is mainly limited to training local forces, the Political and Economic Risk Consultancy (PERC) said.)

6//TheNewsMexico.com, Mexico--NEW "CITIZEN BOARD" TO SCRUTINIZE ATTORNEY GENERAL'S OFFICE (President Vicente Fox swore in members of the new Citizen Participation Council on Friday, which will have the task of keeping tabs on the powerful Attorney General's Office [PGR].)

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1//The Independent 22 April 2002 02:19 GMT+1
http://news.independent.co.uk/europe/story.jsp?story=287566

FRENCH VOTERS MUST NOW CONFRONT THEIR ELECTORAL NIGHTMARE
Analysis by John Lichfield

France was facing a political nightmare last night: a second round of the presidential election between a damaged President Jacques Chirac and a cock-a-hoop anti-European, racist far right.

The consequences are incalculable, except in one respect. President Chirac will be re-elected in two weeks' time. There will never be a President Jean-Marie Le Pen.

(SNIP)

A big majority of French people ­ more than 70 per cent in recent polls ­ say they loathe Mr Le Pen's backward and inward-looking brand of populist politics. President Chirac, despite a poor performance in the first round, is guaranteed an overwhelming victory against Mr Le Pen in the two-candidate second round.

Many left-wing voters may stay at home, as they did yesterday. But hundreds of thousands of others, though they mistrust and despise Mr Chirac, will vote for the incumbent President to block the far right.

Last night's result was, in part, an aberration: a protest vote on the right against a president with a record of political failure and financial impropriety; and a protest no-vote, or scattered vote on the left, against an uninspiring prime minister who lead mostly from the centre.

Mr Le Pen was stuck at 7 per cent in the polls two months ago, struggling to get the 500 signatures of elected officials he needed to qualify for the ballot paper. His rapid rise, picked up by opinion polls only in recent days, resulted not from any change in strategy by the National Front, but a massive turning away of voters ­ especially on the left ­ from mainstream politics.

(SNIP)

How could it happen? How could French voters have said that they wanted a fresh beginning and yet placed, at the top of the poll, a 69-year-old President damaged by allegations of financial wrongdoing and a 73-year-old demagogue, whose mish-mash of policies are rooted in an attempt to recreate a mono-racial, glorious, authoritarian, fiercely nationalist past, which no longer corresponds with the reality of France in the 21st century?

(MORE)

2//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting 19 April 2002
http://www.stratfor.com/fib/topStory_view.php?ID=204195

SAUDIS DESPERATE FOR RUSSIAN HELP

Summary

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al Faisal traveled to Moscow April 18 to seek Russia's help in countering a belligerent U.S. agenda against Iraq. But Saudi Arabia has little to offer Russia and will likely leave empty-handed, so Riyadh will have few options left but to ally with rogue nations Iran and Iraq.

Analysis

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al Faisal traveled to Moscow April 18 to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov. The three talked about Iraq, the recent Saudi-proposed Israeli-Palestinian peace plan and Moscow's involvement in the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia is seeking Russia's help to counter the U.S. agenda in the Middle East. Frightened by the potential consequences of a U.S. strike against Iraq, Riyadh hopes to reverse Moscow's waning support of Baghdad and revive its involvement in Middle East politics. But the Saudi government won't get much more than rhetoric from Russia, and this will leave it looking for allies among the same rogue nations already targeted by Washington.

A possible Saudi-Iraq-Iran coalition to resist U.S. pressure -- even a temporary one built out of necessity -- would entirely reshape regional politics and pose a significant dilemma to the United States. None of the three trust each other, even though technically Iran and Saudi Arabia have a security cooperation agreement. But together they could bring greater political and economic pressure to bear on the smaller Persian Gulf states, upon which Washington grows increasingly reliant.

The government in Riyadh is worried that a U.S. war against Iraq would incite opposition within Saudi Arabia. It has already tried to counter the U.S. agenda by reviving the Middle East peace process and attempting to bring all the Arab states on board. However, Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah's efforts at coalition building -- meant to deflect U.S. pressure for cooperation against Iraq -- failed miserably. Almost half the Arab heads of state failed to show at the March 26-27 Arab League summit in Beirut.

The Saudi government is now turning to global powers like Russia and the European Union to offset U.S. hegemony. In addition to Faisal's trip to Moscow, Riyadh has also called on the EU to do more to end the violence in Israel. But this second attempt at coalition building is also doomed to fail. Europe's involvement in the peace process has done little to alter either Israeli or Palestinian war fighting policies.

Russia and Saudi Arabia have taken U-turns regarding policy toward Baghdad. Saudi Arabia backed the first U.S. war against Iraq, but does not want to see a similar military campaign now. Russia, which opposed Desert Storm, is now working with the United States.

Moscow has several reasons not to cooperate with Saudi Arabia. Most importantly, Putin is concentrating his efforts on rebuilding the Russian empire, at least in part through a strategic partnership with the United States, and has apparently traded opposition to a strike against Iraq in exchange for cooperation with Washington.

(MORE)

3//The Indian Express Monday, April 22, 2002
http://www.indian-express.com/full_story.php?content_id=1300

MUSHARRAF STOPS RALLY AGAINST REFERENDUM
Agencies

Lahore, April 21: Pakistani authorities stifled on Sunday the first major protest against a bid by President Pervez Musharraf to stay in power for five more years through a controversial referendum.

Police surrounded the compound of the Islamic Jamaat-i-Islami party in Lahore to prevent a protest "caravan" departing for Rawalpindi near Islamabad.

When Jamaat chief Qazi Hussain Ahmed drove out of the compound with a few supporters, riot police waited behind their barricades while he made a speech denouncing Musharraf and the referendum. He was then detained peacefully.

Officials said the Punjab government issued an order late on Saturday night barring the protest because of possible traffic problems.

Jamaat officials said they met Punjab officials on Saturday to negotiate details for the caravan and were baffled by the sudden change of heart and arrest of several party leaders at their homes early Sunday morning. A Jamaat case against the referendum is due to go before Pakistan's Supreme Court on Monday.

(SNIP)

While the members of the country's influential bar associations took to the streets on Saturday in Lahore opposing the referendum, Hussain, who was the first to file the petition in the Supreme Court, said the judiciary itself was on trial.

"If it (Supreme Court) picks up the courage and decides the matter in accordance with the Constitution, it will find the entire nation standing behind it," he was quoted as saying today by the local daily, The Nation.

(MORE)

4//Pakistan News Service Updated on 2002-04-21 11:25:40
http://www.paknews.com/main.php?id=4&date1=2002-04-21

MILITARY STAND OFF CAUSING ECONOMIC DEVASTATION

WASHINGTON, April 21 (PNS): World Bank stressing the need for improving tense
relations between India and Pakistan has warned that the Kashmir crisis could end in a nuclear exchange that would wreak enormous physical and economic devastation in both India and Pakistan.

The World Bank in its latest report on Pakistan said that the money being spent by Pakistan and
India to maintain troops on the border was something both of them could "ill afford" and that Islamabad's economic viability and growth would be enhanced by normalisation of ties with New Delhi.

"Some 400,000 troops are currently on the frontier in a high state of readiness, which is presumably the main reason for the additional Rs 15 billion expected in defence spending in financial year 2002," the Bank said in a new report on Pakistan.

"This is a sum that Pakistan with its debt problems and unfulfilled social needs can ill afford.

"There are severe risks arising from Pakistan's strained relations with its large neighbour India. At its worst, the Kashmir crisis could end in a nuclear exchange that would wreak enormous physical and economic devastation in both India and Pakistan," it said.

The report said it was more likely that the current military standoff would last more longer than expected. "If instead the Kashmir crisis was to be resolved and Indo-Pakistani relations were to be normalized, the benefits would be enormous for both countries, but proportionately larger for
Pakistan," the report, dated April 3 but released only days ago, said.

(MORE)

5//The Philippine Daily Inquirer Posted: 1:18 AM (Manila Time) | Apr. 22, 2002
http://www.inq7.net/nat/2002/apr/22/nat_6-1.htm

US COULD WORSEN PROBLEM: THINKTANK
Agence France Presse

SINGAPORE--The growing US military presence in the Philippines to help the government crush Islamic extremists could spark an escalation of the conflict, a risk consultancy warned.

Washington also risks getting bogged down in a protracted and costly conflict in the southern Philippines if its role is mainly limited to training local forces, the Political and Economic Risk Consultancy (PERC) said.

PERC's analysis, contained in its latest Asian Intelligence survey, came as more than 300 US military engineers arrived in Basilan on Saturday.

(SNIP)

"The downside of bringing the global fight against terrorism to the Philippines is that it might fail. The US has so far been unable to use its air power the way it did in Afghanistan," PERC said.

"It is also unable to use its own troops to carry out the fighting. It is doubtful that the Philippines will be able to win a quick and clear victory over the rebels if the role of the US is limited to training and advice.

"Consequently, expectations of the progress on this problem might be too high," it added.

PERC said that by its very nature, the US troop deployment carries military risks.

"In an attempt to discredit the government and to put Washington on the spot, rebels might target US troops or force circumstances where they are drawn into fighting," the Hong Kong-based consultancy said.

"To the extent that Islamic militant groups outside the country now increase monetary and other support to the Islamic rebels in the southern Philippines to fight against this more formidable force, there is also a risk that the whole problem of rebel groups in the Philippines could escalate."

Should this happen, PERC warned that "the magnitude of terrorism that has taken place to date--mainly in the form of kidnappings of tourists--could take on new, more dangerous dimensions."

(SNIP)

US success in its fight against terrorism should be a stabilizing factor for Asia, but should Washington gets "bogged down in a costly, protracted fight against insurgency in the Philippines" or have its anti-terrorism efforts thwarted by developments in the Middle East, it would be destabilizing, PERC added.

6//TheNewsMexico.com Sunday, April 21, 2002
http://www.thenewsmexico.com/noticia.asp?id=23991

NEW "CITIZEN BOARD" TO SCRUTINIZE ATTORNEY GENERAL'S OFFICE

President Vicente Fox swore in members of the new Citizen Participation Council on Friday,
which will have the task of keeping tabs on the powerful Attorney General's Office (PGR).

The PGR is the first federal agency to have a citizen board installed, part of the government's effort to make federal institutions more transparent and more responsive to society's needs.

"We have nothing to hide," Attorney General Rafael Macedo de la Concha told Reforma daily. "That's why we decided to invite civil society to participate."

The 21 members of the board will be charged with evaluating PGR programs, issue recommendations to the Attorney General and even propose bills to Congress in the areas of criminal justice.

The first president of the board will be Joaquin Vargas, the owner of Multivision cable company. Others members are Ricardo Salinas Pliego, president of TV Azteca, Cardinal Norberto Rivera, Alfredo Sonana of the Jewish Community, and renowned academics Enrique Krauze and Federic Reyes Heroles.

(MORE)

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© 2002, Gloria R. Lalumia
insight@zianet.com

More Stuff at: http://www.zianet.com/insightanalytical

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