World Media Watch for April 15, 2002

BUZZFLASH NOTE: Once again, these are the views and perspectives of the individual papers, not of BuzzFlash or Gloria. They offer BuzzFlash readers a way of reading what other nations are saying about the crisis, whether we like it or not. We repeat: This is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

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1//The Moscow Times, Russia--OPINION/COMMENT: TRADE FOR PEACE, NOT LAND FOR PEACE (Apart from the Israelis, they [the Palestinians] are the most productive people in the Middle East, unlike many Arabs in the oil-rich states who are enjoying a rentier existence.)

2//Globes, Israel's Business Arena, Israel--CNN GETS READY FOR SCUDS (The network is apparently gearing up for a US attack on Iraq, and for Iraq's likely riposte against Israel.)

3//Vheadline.com, UK/US-- CHAVEZ RETURNS TO HAUNT WASHINGTON/WASHINGTON SUFFERS MAJOR REVERSE IN LATIN AMERICA (Editor's summary: US "desperately" wanted removal of Chavez and gave assistance to coup leaders...Possible action of US and military is bringing this "divided nation" to brink of "outright civil war.")

4//The Philippine Daily Inquirer, Philippines--GIs WILL SHOOT BACK AT NPA REBS--TIGLAO (Tiglao said that NPA guerrillas planning to hit American soldiers would have to pass through "joint" Filipino and American security forces whose mission is to protect the main body of US troops participating in the exercises... A total 2,003 American soldiers are expected to arrive Monday in Clark, Pampanga.)

5//The Frontier Post, Pakistan--IRAQI OPPOSITION REVEALS ITS DIVISIONS (Richard Perle who chairs the Council of Defense Advisors expresses a similar view. "We must not be put off by the current weakness of the Iraqi opposition," he says. "Once we have won the military campaign everyone will be on our side. In the Middle East people are always on the side of the winners." The British, however, are less optimistic.)

6//The Observer, UK--BLOOD-DRENCHED WARLORD'S RETURN (However, The Observer has uncovered evidence that senior members of the Afghan government are manipulating the Islamist threat in a covert campaign to retain power. According to a confidential UN document, the authorities are jailing and intimidating political rivals to smear them as terrorists and to destabilise preparations for the national assembly - or loya jirga - which is supposed to choose a new government in June.)

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1//The Moscow Times Monday, Apr. 15, 2002. Page 10
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2002/04/15/006.html

OPINION/COMMENT: TRADE FOR PEACE, NOT LAND FOR PEACE
By Robert Skidelsky

Robert Skidelsky, professor of political economy and a cross-bench peer in the House of Lords, contributed this comment to The Moscow Times.

The United States has officially demanded an immediate Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank. Israel has vowed to continue its "war for survival." Meanwhile the peacemakers shuttle sadly round the Middle East, oblivious to the fact that no one is listening to them.

All peace efforts are still based on the resumption of the "Oslo process," whereby Israel was supposed to turn over the occupied territories to a Palestinian state; the Palestinians were supposed to renounce their right of return to Israel and everyone was to live happily ever after.

However, there were two major flaws in this "land for peace" design. The first was that there was never enough land available to make the proposal acceptable -- not nearly enough to satisfy the passionate possessiveness of all those with claims to it: the Israeli settlers, the Palestinians at home as well as in the diasporas beyond.

Secondly, "land for peace" never made economic sense. If compensation for wrongs to the Palestinians is to be a guiding principle, there are far better ways of achieving it than to set up a rickety, poverty-stricken state that excludes more than a million Palestinians still in camps and is dependent on subsidies from oil rich Arab neighbors.

The continued pursuit of the land for peace formula actually puts peace beyond reach. It foists on the occupied territories a shadowy Palestinian Authority that cannot satisfy the aspirations of its people and therefore has no incentive to control violence in its own territories even if it had the means. For its part, Israel cannot offer the Palestinians enough land to satisfy them, but cannot crush the uprising without repudiating the "peace process." The result is the worst of all worlds: escalating violence with no political resolution in sight and no economic prospects.

The time has come, therefore, to restart the search for peace on more imaginative lines. The two requirements for a new approach are sufficient force to bring violence to an end and an economic program that creates opportunities for Palestinians to gain a sustainable livelihood. Any hope that Israel would be able to establish peace by using force -- the program on which Sharon came to power -- looks forlorn now nearly a year after his election. The conflict if anything has got worse since the "war on terror" was launched. Only an international peacemaking and peacekeeping force can do the job. What is required is a neutral authority that can be trusted by all sides. Though it would need to be mandated by the United Nations, it would need to be bigger and more effective than the small third-party forces normally used in UN peacekeeping missions -- more like the forces currently on the ground in the Balkans.

(SNIP)

There needs to be reform in the Palestinian Authority as well. The French suggestion of fresh elections is a constructive one. But it may need a UN presence before conditions for free and fair elections are established. The creation of a new Palestinian Authority with a fresh popular mandate -- even if it is led by the same leadership as now -- is desirable not least for the good of the Palestinian people themselves.

(SNIP)

The enforced peace should be followed by a massive (i.e. billions not millions of dollars) aid package for the occupied territories and the Palestinian diasporas supplied jointly by the United States and European Union. Its purpose would be to reconstruct the West Bank, build up a regional business infrastructure and get the million or so Palestinians out of the camps and into jobs. The Palestinians would quickly benefit from such assistance. Apart from the Israelis, they are the most productive people in the Middle East, unlike many Arabs in the oil-rich states who are enjoying a rentier existence.

A further aim of such a package would be to help reopen the clogged channels of trade and migration. A national customs union between Israel and the occupied territories was formally established by the Paris Protocol of April 1994, with a joint Economic Council to adjudicate trade disputes. Hitherto, its operation has been aborted by Israel's security concerns and the Palestinian Authority's goal of political independence. The former has led to frequent and arbitrary restrictions on the right of Palestinians to work in Israel.

With peace, trade liberalization can be accelerated and its benefits will be large. Palestinian workers bring more money ($828 million) back home than Palestine exports ($697 million, both figures for 1998). The security situation imposes an uncertain and arbitrary transaction cost on this labor movement estimated at 30 percent to 40 percent on the price of goods. A mere halving of these transaction costs made possible by peace will add up to 3.5 percent to Palestine GDP and real wages of Palestinian workers.

But we can go farther. At present, all goods from countries other than Israel are subject to tariffs, purchase taxes and VAT, while Israeli goods only pay VAT. These charges add 20 percent to 40 percent to prices. If all goods were treated on the same basis as Israeli goods and paid only VAT, a World Bank study has estimated that this would add between 5 percent and 6 percent to Palestine GDP. There is scope here for liberalization. First establish peace and the enhanced sense of security will cut the transaction costs and improve the flow of labor. As a second step, allow Palestine to have the same foreign trade regime as Israel. Trade will expand with Israel and with the rest of the world. It will make the Palestinian economy a full member of the world economy, open to trade and investment.

(MORE)

2//Globes, Israel's Business Arena 14.04.2002 18:23
http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/

CNN GETS READY FOR SCUDS
Aviva Krull

A production crew of US television network CNN has been inspecting locations in recent weeks in hotels on the Tel Aviv seashore, including broadcasting positions on hotel roofs.

The network is apparently gearing up for a US attack on Iraq, and for Iraq's likely riposte against Israel.

The preferred location is the Tel Aviv Hilton, where a large CNN crew spent the Gulf War in 1991, documenting the Iraqi Scud missile attacks on Israel.

(MORE)

3//Vheadline.com Dateline 14/04/200
www.vheadline.com/0204/11815.asp

(Copyright restrictions prohibit copying this article...please use link)

AFI Intelligence - Media Briefing
CHAVEZ RETURNS TO HAUNT WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON SUFFERS MAJOR REVERSE IN LATIN AMERICA

AFI correspondents in Venezuela and Richard M. Bennett
AFI Research, UK. US Office, Washington, DC

Richard M. Bennett is the author of ESPIONAGE- An encyclopedia of Spies and Secrets, 85227 which will be published by Virgin Books in the UK on June 6th and in the USA on Ist July 2002 and FIGHTING FORCES a review of the worlds leading Armies, including many in the Middle East, published in September 2001

Editor's summary: Author writes that most Latin American leaders do not want to risk a return to era of US backed right wing dictatorships. Venezuelan situation is huge embarrassment and poses possible threat to policy throughout Latin America. US "desperately" wanted removal of Chavez and gave assistance to coup leaders. Chavez has links to Cuba, Iraq and others on US "hit list" and controls world's 4th largest oil reserve. Possible action of US and military is bringing this "divided nation" to brink of "outright civil war."

4//The Philippine Daily Inquirer Monday Apr. 15, 2002,
http://www.inq7.net/nat/2002/apr/15/nat_1-1.htm

GIs WILL SHOOT BACK AT NPA REBS--TIGLAO
Posted: 10:44 PM (Manila Time) | Apr. 14, 2002

By Carlito Pablo and Martin P. Marfil and Tonette Orejas
Inquirer News Service

2,003 US troops in Clark

AMERICAN forces participating in joint Balikatan war exercises with Filipino soldiers will fight back if attacked by communist guerrillas, Press Secretary Rigoberto Tiglao said Sunday.

"They (Americans) can act in self-defense," Tiglao said in reaction to the order issued by Armando Liwanag, chair of the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), to its armed wing, the New People's Army, to "inflict severe casualties on the invading US forces."

The right to self-defense is explicitly contained in the terms of reference (TOR) for Balikatan 02-1 but only because American forces are to be placed in combat areas, particularly in Basilan, the Abu Sayyaf's stronghold.

(SNIP)

Tiglao said that NPA guerrillas planning to hit American soldiers would have to pass through "joint" Filipino and American security forces whose mission is to protect the main body of US troops participating in the exercises. "All security precautions" are being taken to ensure the safety of visiting American military personnel, he said.

About 2,700 American troops are arriving for Balikatan 02-2 to be held in several military camps in Luzon from April 22 to May 6.

A total 2,003 American soldiers are expected to arrive Monday in Clark, Pampanga. An advance party of 50 American soldiers arrived in Clark last week to prepare for the logistics and technical requirements of the Balikatan 02-2.

Some 660 US military personnel, including 160 US Green Berets, are already deployed for Balikatan 02-1, a training exercise whose principal objective is to crush Abu Sayyaf bandits holding hostage an American couple and a Filipino nurse in Basilan.

(MORE)

5//The Frontier Post Updated on 4/14/2002 2:00:58 PM
http://www.frontierpost.com.pk/articles.asp?id=5&date1=4/14/2002

IRAQI OPPOSITION REVEALS ITS DIVISIONS
Amir Taheri

With the United States and Britain now in agreement to work for a "regime change" in Iraq, sharper attention is now paid to alternatives to President Saddam Hussein's administration.

(SNIP)

Blair succeeded in exacting two important concessions from Bush.

First, the US will give the United Nations an opportunity to resume a "comprehensive and robust" weapons inspection in Iraq within a brief period. The process will start in May when the Security Council will formally demand that Baghdad allow the UN inspectors to resume work inside Iraq.

The current consensus is that Baghdad will not agree.

But even if it does, there is a strong possibility that the new mission will run into major hurdles within weeks, thus making military intervention inevitable.

The second concession won by Blair is an American undertaking not to try to impose any particular Iraqi opposition group as that country's future government. This gives Britain diplomatic leeway to help organize as broad a coalition of Iraqi opposition groups as possible, notably including those close to Iran and Syria.

The current consensus is that the Iraqi opposition is too weak, too disorganized and too divided to play the kind of role that the Northern Alliance played in Afghanistan.

"If we want regime change in Baghdad we have to go in ourselves," says Kenneth Pollack, who advised President Bill Clinton on the Middle East.

"I think we can finish the job in a month and then worry about the opposition." Richard Perle who chairs the Council of Defense Advisors expresses a similar view. "We must not be put off by the current weakness of the Iraqi opposition," he says. "Once we have won the military campaign everyone will be on our side.

In the Middle East people are always on the side of the winners." The British, however, are less optimistic.

They insist that some kind of an alternative regime must be shaped, at least in broad terms, when and if military action starts. "This is important if only for our own public opinion," says an advisor to Blair. "We cannot say we are marching into Iraq to create a power vacuum. We must be able to say that we are intervening in favour of Iraqi political forces that want to turn Iraq into a democracy based on human rights." That, however, is easier said than done.

The Iraqi exile opposition's first show of force, designed to coincide with the Bush-Blair summit, came in the form of a demonstration in central London. The march, which was watched by American and British political analysts, attracted almost 1,000 people. (Police said 800, the organizers said 3,000).

Intended as a show of unity, the march, unwittingly perhaps, revealed deep divisions.

(SNIP)

As a picture of Iraq's future, the march may not please Washington and London.

There were absolutely no slogans about democracy and human rights.

There were as many beards and black hijabs as in the Iranian city of Qom.

The only names shouted in praise were those of some Iraqi mullahs, dead or alive.

It showed that, even in far-away London, the Iraqi opposition groups couldn't really come together in spirit.

6//The Observer Sunday April 14, 2002
http://www.observer.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,683984,00.html

BLOOD-DRENCHED WARLORD'S RETURN
Exiled Islamist is set to destabilise an already fractured peace
Afghanistan - Observer special

Rory Carroll in Kabul

Whoever is trying to destabilise Afghanistan is doing a good job. The broken cities and scorched hills so recently liberated are rediscovering fear and uncertainty. Men of ambition, or with nothing to lose, are tugging at a peace woven with the finest thread.

(SNIP)

'There are still a lot of different groups trying to make trouble. I think most of them are hold-outs from the Taliban and al-Qaeda, plus small groups linked to [Gulbuddin] Hekmatyar,' said Agriculture Minister Saeed Hussein Anwari.

Hekmatyar, an Islamist warlord synonymous with blood and hate, has reportedly returned from exile to wage jihad against Western infidels and their Afghan proxies. His location is unknown, but he is said to back the followers of Osama bin Laden and Mullah Mohamed Omar in their goal of destabilising the interim government in Kabul.

These are the guerrillas whom the 1,700-strong British battle group at Bagram airbase will hunt from this week, a bolstering of the US campaign well suited to Royal Marine commandos trained in mountain and desert warfare. However, The Observer has uncovered evidence that senior members of the Afghan government are manipulating the Islamist threat in a covert campaign to retain power. According to a confidential UN document, the authorities are jailing and intimidating political rivals to smear them as terrorists and to destabilise preparations for the national assembly - or loya jirga - which is supposed to choose a new government in June.

The memo was written by the UN's chief negotiator, Michael Semple, and addressed to the organisation's senior political officers in Kabul, Anders Fange and Karl Fischer.

(SNIP)

The document confirms Western concern - which diplomats have refrained from publicly voicing - that a power struggle within the Afghan government is undermining the hunt for Islamist guerrillas.

Falsely identifying people as al-Qaeda or Taliban pollutes intelligence and erodes the legitimacy of the loya jirga, which analysts agree is a make-or-break event for peace in Afghanistan. Suspicion is growing that elements in the government share the guerrillas' interest in instability.

Afghan politics are not so much murky as opaque, but diplomats say a pattern is emerging: ethnic Tajiks from the Panjshir who dominate the interim government through control of the Defence, Interior, Foreign and Security Ministries are plotting to marginalise Pashtuns, the country's largest ethnic group.

Because the Taliban were mostly Pashtun and al-Qaeda is believed to be hiding in Pashtun areas, they can be cast as Islamists but the UN report shows that many of those arrested in Kabul were innocent.

(SNIP)

Voting to choose delegates for the loya jirga starts tomorrow, but Pashtuns in the north have been singled out for ethnically motivated beatings, rapes, abductions and lootings, according to Human Rights Watch.

'If northern Pashtuns are unable to take part in district or regional meetings to choose their representatives, then the validity of the entire loya jirga process will be called into question,' said Peter Bouckaert, a spokesman for the US-based rights group.

Excluding Pashtuns was a recipe for renewed civil war, said a diplomat. 'This is a very fragile process and it's the only game in town. There's no other plan.'

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© 2002, Gloria R. Lalumia
insight@zianet.com

More Stuff at: http://www.zianet.com/insightanalytical

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