February 6, 2006

World Media Watch

by Gloria R. Lalumia

BuzzFlash Note: WMW provides BuzzFlash readers foreign views and perspectives that are not usually available from the media here in the U.S. The presentation of these articles from these international publications is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

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WORLD MEDIA WATCH FOR FEBRUARY 6, 2006

1//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong--PLAN B AND FOUR NIGHTMARES IN IRAQ (At present, there are four candidates for the job of prime minister: current Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari of the Da'wa Party, current Vice President Adel Abdul Mehdi from the SCIRI, Nadim al-Jabiri of the al-Fadila al-Islamiyya Party and Hussein Shahristani of the UIA. All of them are the product of Islamic parties. All of them are frowned on by Washington. The last thing the Americans wanted to install in Iraq, after toppling Saddam Hussein in 2003, was a group of men who believe in political Islam and are backed by the clerics of Tehran. This fear is shared by regional states such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and Syria. … The United States has realized, too little and too late, that those to benefit most from the Anglo-American war on Iraq were the Shi'ites of Iran. The US administration has bluntly said it would have to re-evaluate plan A, meaning its military and financial assistance to Iraq, if an Iran-backed government is created. It would stop, or curb, its massive effort to equip and train the Iraqi army and police. … Bush needs the security of a plan B for his army in Iraq. He clearly wants it to work with the Sunnis, whom he mistakenly had tried to sideline since 2003.)

2//The Daily Star, Lebanon--IRAN’S ALREADY DEPRESSED ECONOMY HARD HIT BY NUCLEAR CRISIS (Iran's struggling economy is headed for the doldrums amid a worsening international crisis over its nuclear program and despite the country's lucrative oil revenues, analysts and businessmen say. Although the economy is state-dominated and largely kept afloat by crude sales, the regime had been pinning its hopes on a private sector boom to bring down soaring youth unemployment and add some badly-needed weight to the non-oil sector. But the weekend vote by International Atomic Energy Agency's 35-nation board of governors to report Iran to the UN Security Council looks set to throw a spanner in the works. … While the clerical regime calls the shots, it could soon find itself facing tough questions from a people who thrust Ahmadinejad to power last June after seizing on his pledge to see oil money reaches the ordinary people. "Nuclear technology is our right, but not at any cost," said Sina, a 26-year-old private construction engineer. "My company imports parts from Germany, so I'm worried about sanctions.")

3//The Jordan Times, Jordan--HAMAS SEEKS TO TURN NEW PAGE WITH JORDAN (Secure in its landslide victory in last month's Palestinian elections, Hamas is extending an olive branch to Jordan, seven years after its political leaders were unceremoniously expelled from the Kingdom. According to a top Jordanian Islamist, the Islamic resistance movement realises that it needs to mend fences with Jordan, now that it will most likely be in charge of forming a new Palestinian government. … Analysts and politicians agree that a rapprochement between Jordan and Hamas will be arduous — especially at the public level — but nonetheless they have little doubt that it will eventually happen, and that both sides will show great flexibility in dealing with each other. … Analysts stress that one crucial, colossal factor, above others, forces Jordan and any past or future Palestinian Authority, regardless of colour, to closely coordinate and cooperate under any circumstances: The 1.57 million Palestinian refugees officially registered with the UN in Jordan, and the many more Jordanians of Palestinian origin.)

4//The Independent, UK-- EUROPE IS SLEEPWALKING TOWARDS A TRADE WAR WITH CHINA, WARN UK RETAILERS (Europe is "sleepwalking" into a multi-billion pound trade war with China on the back of a groundswell of protectionism among Continental industries struggling to compete with low-price imports, British companies are warning. In a week's time, a committee of technocrats holds a private meeting in Brussels to recommend whether the European Union pull up the drawbridge to low-cost imported Chinese shoes. If it does, it could open the door to a flood of similar complaints by European manufacturers of everything from plastic bags and sports trainers through to tungsten filaments and recordable CDs. More importantly, it will fuel concerns that Fortress Europe is prepared to do anything to protect ailing industries against the clear and present danger from low-wage manufacturers in the world's most populous - and largest totalitarian - country.)

5//The Times, UK--TORIES TO GIVE MPs VOTE ON WAR (Centuries-old powers that allow the prime minister to take Britain to war without the consent of MPs will be overturned by the next Conservative government. In a speech on the constitution David Cameron will say today that the time has come to give MPs, not the government, the authority to determine whether the Armed Forces go into battle. The Conservative leader will say that the move will help to restore trust in politics, which has been damaged by Tony Blair. … Mr Blair gave MPs a vote in 2003 before committing troops to Iraq, and has said that an important precedent was set. But Mr Cameron will argue that the constitution needs to be changed to guarantee MPs the final say. “I believe that one of the factors causing disillusionment with politics is the decline in the status and power of Parliament,” he will say.)

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1//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong Feb 4, 2006
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HB04Ak01.html

PLAN B AND FOUR NIGHTMARES IN IRAQ
By Sami Moubayed

DAMASCUS - Iraq is boiling with political activity as all parties jockey to decide on who the new prime minister will be after the parliamentary elections of last December. Talks will go into full gear when Maasoud al-Barazani, the president of Iraqi Kurdistan, arrives in Baghdad next week to take part in the negotiations. Barazani speaks for the Kurds, who secured 53 of the 275 seats in the new National Assembly, down from their original 75 in the parliament of 2005.

The Kurds, headed by Barazani and President Jalal Talabani, are upset that their number has been reduced, and that they have to share power with both the Sunnis and the Iran-backed Shi'ites of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim and the Supreme Council of the Iraqi Revolution (SCIRI).

The heavyweight in Iraqi politics, the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) of Iran-backed Shi'ite politicians (which includes the SCIRI), will have the strongest say in deciding who the prime minister will be, since it came out with a near-majority, winning 127 of the seats in the assembly. This means it is 56 seats short of the two-thirds majority needed to form a government on its own - and elect the premier of its choice.

At present, there are four candidates for the job of prime minister: current Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari of the Da'wa Party, current Vice President Adel Abdul Mehdi from the SCIRI, Nadim al-Jabiri of the al-Fadila al-Islamiyya Party and Hussein Shahristani of the UIA.

All of them are the product of Islamic parties. All of them are frowned on by Washington. The last thing the Americans wanted to install in Iraq, after toppling Saddam Hussein in 2003, was a group of men who believe in political Islam and are backed by the clerics of Tehran. This fear is shared by regional states such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and Syria.

(SNIP)

The four current candidates are all allied to Tehran. All of them spent many years in exile in Iran during Saddam's dictatorship and want to repay the Islamic Republic's support by strengthening ties with the mullahs.

(SNIP)

Plan B
The United States has realized, too little and too late, that those to benefit most from the Anglo-American war on Iraq were the Shi'ites of Iran. The US administration has bluntly said it would have to re-evaluate plan A, meaning its military and financial assistance to Iraq, if an Iran-backed government is created. It would stop, or curb, its massive effort to equip and train the Iraqi army and police.

It has already angered the Shi'ites by giving clear support to the Sunnis, whom it encouraged to run in the elections and who came out, in total, with 59 seats, thereby breaking the clear-cut Shi'ite majority obtained in January 2005.

(SNIP)

Bush needs the security of a plan B for his army in Iraq. He clearly wants it to work with the Sunnis, whom he mistakenly had tried to sideline since 2003. The US has tried to court the Sunnis for the past year and one of the reasons it is demanding that the Interior Ministry be given to independent politicians is that under Jaafari, the ministry was controlled by a member of the SCIRI.

Jaafari was involved in arresting and torturing Sunni politicians, using the police force to settle old scores with the Sunnis. All this does is add fuel to the Sunni insurgency. David Ignatius commented in the Washington Post, "The American envoy is deploying a weapon the US hasn't used much in Iraq - the word 'no'."

He added that if the Iraqis don't follow the US agenda, Washington threatens "to walk away." Turning its back on a country it destroyed before repairing it would be a nightmare for the Iraqis. This might be enough reason for Iraqis to act wisely and listen to what the Americans are saying. But the Americans must realize that democracy, although it has its side-effects, always produces situations that can be handled in a civilized and sophisticated manner.

Walking away would ruin whatever Bush wanted history to say about him in Iraq. On the contrary, the Americans must say to themselves: "The Iran-backed Shi'ites came to power. Fine. We can deal with that. A democracy means that they rule until 2010 and then, if they fail in office, they will be ejected by the people." The Americans have to believe in the democratic system they are creating in Iraq. They have no other choice.

2//The Daily Star, Lebanon Monday, February 06, 2006
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition...

IRAN’S ALREADY DEPRESSED ECONOMY HARD HIT BY NUCLEAR CRISIS
Hopes of private-sector boom dashed by international tensions

By Agence France Presse (AFP)

TEHRAN: Iran's struggling economy is headed for the doldrums amid a worsening international crisis over its nuclear program and despite the country's lucrative oil revenues, analysts and businessmen say. Although the economy is state-dominated and largely kept afloat by crude sales, the regime had been pinning its hopes on a private sector boom to bring down soaring youth unemployment and add some badly-needed weight to the non-oil sector.

But the weekend vote by International Atomic Energy Agency's 35-nation board of governors to report Iran to the UN Security Council looks set to throw a spanner in the works.

"Investors have to feel secure, and now there are worries about the nuclear case," explained a disheartened broken at Tehran's stock exchange, which has already seen several years of strong growth wiped out by fears over the escalating tensions with the West.

"For the past week, we've already seen a downward trend. The market has been in fear regarding the fate of our nuclear case. The case going to the UN Security Council will be a shock to the market," said the trader, who asked not to be named.

Other, more traditional sectors for local investors, are also coming to a grinding halt.
Tehran housing agent Ali Rahimi said his customers were postponing deals and sitting on their cash, in stark contrast to recent years which have seen breakneck growth in construction and property buying.

"Almost all of my customers who had last week planned to buy a house or land have postponed their deals because of nuclear issue," Rahimi said. "The big investors are looking to see what happens next. They are holding onto their money."

Inevitably, increasing capital outflow is emerging as a problem - and although no figures are available many wealthy Iranians do appear to be sending their cash to more inviting climates.

Destinations for nervous Iranians' cash are more stable environments such as the United Arab Emirates and its booming trade hub in Dubai, just across the Gulf and a comfy two-hour, $200 flight from Tehran.

(SNIP)

While the clerical regime calls the shots, it could soon find itself facing tough questions from a people who thrust Ahmadinejad to power last June after seizing on his pledge to see oil money reaches the ordinary people.

"Nuclear technology is our right, but not at any cost," said Sina, a 26-year-old private construction engineer. "My company imports parts from Germany, so I'm worried about sanctions."

3//The Jordan Times, Jordan Monday, February 6, 2006
http://www.jordantimes.com/mon/homenews/homenews1.htm

HAMAS SEEKS TO TURN NEW PAGE WITH JORDAN
By Francesca Sawalha

AMMAN — Secure in its landslide victory in last month's Palestinian elections, Hamas is extending an olive branch to Jordan, seven years after its political leaders were unceremoniously expelled from the Kingdom.

According to a top Jordanian Islamist, the Islamic resistance movement realises that it needs to mend fences with Jordan, now that it will most likely be in charge of forming a new Palestinian government.

Hamas politburo chief Khaled Mishaal reportedly declared his readiness to bury the hatchet in a meeting with a delegation of Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood and Islamic Action Front (IAF) leaders in Damascus last week.

“Mishaal sent an open message: We want to turn a new page in our relations with Jordan,” Abdul Latif Arabiyat, president of the Shura Council of the IAF, told The Jordan Times in an interview earlier this week.

“We are open to everyone. Let us work together for our mutual benefit — this is Hamas' message to Jordan,” Arabiyat said.

A handful of representatives of Jordan's mainstream Islamic movement travelled to Damascus last Wednesday to congratulate Hamas leaders in exile on the movement's surprising victory in the January 25 polls, in which it clinched 74 of the Palestinian legislature's 132 seats and defeated the long-dominant Fateh movement.

Analysts and politicians agree that a rapprochement between Jordan and Hamas will be arduous — especially at the public level — but nonetheless they have little doubt that it will eventually happen, and that both sides will show great flexibility in dealing with each other.

(SNIP)

Analysts stress that one crucial, colossal factor, above others, forces Jordan and any past or future Palestinian Authority, regardless of colour, to closely coordinate and cooperate under any circumstances: The 1.57 million Palestinian refugees officially registered with the UN in Jordan, and the many more Jordanians of Palestinian origin.

“Jordan's traditional policy throughout history is to support the Palestinian cause and stand beside Palestinian authorities,” Arabiyat said.

“That will not change. Now that, as a result of free and democratic elections, Hamas is the leading component of the Palestinian Authority, Jordan will have to deal with it.”

Officially, Jordan has been keeping a wait-and-see attitude, contrary to Egypt and other regional heavyweights, which have already dispatched top officials to Damascus to congratulate Hamas and lay the foundations for a future dialogue.

(MORE)

4//The Independent, UK Published: 06 February 2006
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article343487.ece

EUROPE IS SLEEPWALKING TOWARDS A TRADE WAR WITH CHINA, WARN UK RETAILERS

By Philip Thornton, Economics Correspondent

Europe is "sleepwalking" into a multi-billion pound trade war with China on the back of a groundswell of protectionism among Continental industries struggling to compete with low-price imports, British companies are warning.

In a week's time, a committee of technocrats holds a private meeting in Brussels to recommend whether the European Union pull up the drawbridge to low-cost imported Chinese shoes. If it does, it could open the door to a flood of similar complaints by European manufacturers of everything from plastic bags and sports trainers through to tungsten filaments and recordable CDs.

More importantly, it will fuel concerns that Fortress Europe is prepared to do anything to protect ailing industries against the clear and present danger from low-wage manufacturers in the world's most populous - and largest totalitarian - country.

The issues involved cut across all key issues raised by globalisation - poor countries' access to markets in the richer nations, allegations of "slave labour" conditions and the elimination of whole industries in the face of competition.

The impact could be to put up prices across the board. One charity has warned that a plastic bag tax would wipe £300,000 off the income its shops generate. Alisdair Gray, European director of the British Retail Consortium, said: "Why are we having to pay the price for when it is about a political issue in another country? Sleepwalking into a trade war is the best way to put it."

Following the 24 February meeting, the first major decision for Europe's politicians is on 9 March, when they are expected to decide whether to impose tariffs or quotas on leather footwear. If they give the green light then measures - currently thought to be a 30 per cent tax - would take effect from 23 March.

UK retailers argue that such a move would add £5 to the average price of a pair of shoes on the high street. Along with importers, wholesalers and consumer groups, they claim Western manufacturers are desperately trying to protect unviable industries and leave consumers nursing the cost in higher prices.

Diane Coyle, an advocate for free trade and managing director of Enlightenment Economics, said China's "trade-fuelled growth" was creating a vast new market for UK exporters. "It's very depressing to see politicians failing to make the point that trade between Europe and China is mutually beneficial despite the competitive threat it poses to some companies," she said. "If the EU decides to protect special interests like Italian shoe manufacturers, it will harm the interests of not only consumers, but also all the other businesses who benefit from Chinese imports keeping costs down and Chinese markets for their goods and services."

Manufacturers say that they need space to help adjust in the face of a massive shift that, unprotected, could lead to hundreds of thousands of job losses.

(SNIP)

If the dispute escalates, China could retaliate, cutting big-ticket imports such as infrastructure, factory equipment and Airbus aircraft at a key time in the company's battle for dominance with Boeing. But Brussels denied was taking part in a protectionist drive. A spokesman for Mr Mandelson said: "Whenever we talk about demand for protection from certain countries, as far as the Commission is concerned the issue of anti-dumping is a technical one.

"It is about determining whether unfair trade is taking place and whether it is in European interests to use the most restrained way possible to return markets to free and fair competition."

5//The Times, UK February 06k, 2006
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-2026704,00.html

TORIES TO GIVE MPs VOTE ON WAR
By Rosemary Bennett, Deputy Political Editor

CENTURIES-OLD powers that allow the prime minister to take Britain to war without the consent of MPs will be overturned by the next Conservative government.

In a speech on the constitution David Cameron will say today that the time has come to give MPs, not the government, the authority to determine whether the Armed Forces go into battle. The Conservative leader will say that the move will help to restore trust in politics, which has been damaged by Tony Blair.

He will announce that his Democracy task force, led by Kenneth Clarke, the former Chancellor, will examine changes to Royal Prerogative Powers to give Parliament a greater role and make government more accountable.

Mr Blair gave MPs a vote in 2003 before committing troops to Iraq, and has said that an important precedent was set. But Mr Cameron will argue that the constitution needs to be changed to guarantee MPs the final say. “I believe that one of the factors causing disillusionment with politics is the decline in the status and power of Parliament,” he will say.

He will announce that his Democracy task force, led by Kenneth Clarke, the former Chancellor, will examine changes to Royal Prerogative Powers to give Parliament a greater role and make government more accountable.

Mr Blair gave MPs a vote in 2003 before committing troops to Iraq, and has said that an important precedent was set. But Mr Cameron will argue that the constitution needs to be changed to guarantee MPs the final say. “I believe that one of the factors causing disillusionment with politics is the decline in the status and power of Parliament,” he will say.

“Just last week, we first heard about the Government’s decision to send 4,000 troops to Afghanistan in the pages of The Sun newspaper. Restoring trust in politics means restoring trust in Parliament and one way to do that is to enhance the role of Parliament in scrutinising the Government’s decisions.”

He will say that he wants a more formal mechanism for consulting MPs on going to war and agreeing international treaties, where there is no formal role for Parliament: “While there was a vote on the decision to go to war in Iraq, albeit very late in the process, there was no vote on the action in Kosovo. So shouldn’t there be a formal process for parliamentary approval?” Labour is likely to accuse Mr Cameron of attempting to steal Gordon Brown’s ideas. The Chancellor made it clear he intended to make constitutional reform one of the defining areas of his leadership if he succeeds Mr Blair, including giving MPs war-making powers.

Mr Cameron may, however, be prepared to go further than Mr Brown. He will say that there should be a formal role for MPs to scrutinise significant public appointments, such as the chief executive of the NHS or the Chairman of the BBC. Big changes to the structure and organisation of government should also require more formal parliamentary scrutiny.