December 21, 2005

World Media Watch

by Gloria R. Lalumia

BuzzFlash Note: WMW provides BuzzFlash readers foreign views and perspectives that are not usually available from the media here in the U.S. The presentation of these articles from these international publications is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

* * *

WORLD MEDIA WATCH FOR DECEMBER 21, 2005

1//The Jordan Times, Jordan--IRAQ’S KURDS KEEP OPTIONS OPEN (Iraqi Kurds have become disenchanted with their conservative Shiite allies in the outgoing national government and are keeping all options open on how best to broker power in the new administration. Given its majority populace and a traditional electorate voting en masse for sectarian interests, the UIA is certain to win a large number of seats in this month's elections, with the Kurds again probably in second place. Yet significant cracks have emerged between the two partners since they emerged the leading forces in government, not least over the writing of the constitution, the role of Islam, federalism and women's rights. Analyst and Kurdish writer Abdelghani Ali Yehya believes the alliance was never a true meeting of minds in the first place. "They agreed on certain points without really aligning," he said. For Yehya the political gulf between the UIA and the Kurds is too large, particularly on the thorny question of the ethnically mixed oil centre of Kirkuk, to be anything other than a marriage of convenience.)

2//The Daily Star, Lebanon--SELF-SUFFICIENCY MAKES SYRIA SANCTIONS-PROOF (Any possible international economic sanctions on Syria will have no major impact because the country is self-sufficient and does not have a large external debt, a Syrian official said on Tuesday. Pressure on Syria has a weak impact on the economy this year," said Mustafa al-Kafri, director of the investment authority, told The Daily Star during an expert meeting on Foreign Direct Investment held at the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia. … Some analysts say that Syria can survive sanctions on the short and medium terms due to the country's resources. However, the analysts argue that some sectors of the economy, such as oil will be hit very hard because Syria's oil and gas reserves are very limited. "There were $2 billion of investments this year in Syria, which is an important figure," Kafri said, adding that the growth in Foreign Direct Investment is expected to rise by 30 percent at the end of 2005. He said that most of the FDI originate from Saudi Arabia but there are also investments coming from Turkey, the U.A.E. and European countries, mainly Germany. He added that investments are in the industrial but also the tourism sectors.)

3//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong--CHINA LAYS DOWN THE GAUNTLET IN ENERGY WAR (On December 15, the state-owned China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) inaugurated an oil pipeline running from Kazakhstan to northwest China. The pipeline will undercut the geopolitical significance of the Washington-backed Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline which opened this past summer amid big fanfare and support from Washington. … Simply put, the United States stands to lose major leverage over the entire strategic Eurasian region with the latest developments. The Kazakh developments also have more than a little to do with the fact that the Washington war drums are beating loudly against Iran.)

4//Inter Press Service News Agency, Italy--MORALES WILL NEED TO FORGE ALLIANCES (Bolivian President-elect Evo Morales will need to forge agreements with part of the opposition in Congress, set forth a timetable for pushing through actual reforms, and carefully handle the differences within his Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) if he wants to overcome the severe political instability and social problems afflicting this Andean nation, say observers. According to the preliminary results, the 46-year-old Aymara indigenous leader of Bolivia's coca farmers won a landslide victory with 51 percent of the vote - unprecedented in the past 23 years of democracy in the country - and is preparing to take office in South America's poorest nation, promising to transform the current free-market, neoliberal economic model and put an end to "the colonial state." … The expectations of Morales' supporters focus on a new policy with regard to Bolivia's abundant natural gas resources, which are at the centre of the social and political upheaval of the past three years, and of trade and ties with the United States and other countries in the region. But above and beyond any formal agenda, Professor Joaquín Saravia told IPS that it is time for the representatives of the Aymara indigenous culture - Bolivia's largest ethnic group - to build a state on the basis of the moral principle of "thou shalt not steal.")

5//The Independent, UK--ROYAL, THE SOCIALIST, IS TIPPED AS FRANCE’S FIRST FEMALE PRESIDENT (The former cabinet minister Ségolène Royal has begun to outdistance all other potential candidates for the centre-left in the next French presidential election. Mme Royal, 52, although dismissed by many as a lightweight, is now a strong contender to become the first woman presidential candidate for a leading French political party. A series of recent polls has placed her far ahead of other potential centre-left candidates in 2007, including her partner, François Hollande, the leader of the Socialist party. … Despite much speculation, the mood within the Hollande-Royal household remains unclear. The couple have lived together for 20 years. They have four children but have never married, by her choice.)

* * *

1//The Jordan Times, Jordan Wednesday, December 21, 2005
http://www.jordantimes.com/wed/news/news3.htm

IRAQ’S KURDS KEEP OPTIONS OPEN
By Abdel Hamid Zebari
Agence France-Presse

ERBIL — Iraqi Kurds have become disenchanted with their conservative Shiite allies in the outgoing national government and are keeping all options open on how best to broker power in the new administration.

At a January poll, Iraq's first free vote in half a century, the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) won 140 seats in the 275-member parliament and formed an alliance with the Kurds, who came in second with 75 seats.

Given its majority populace and a traditional electorate voting en masse for sectarian interests, the UIA is certain to win a large number of seats in this month's elections, with the Kurds again probably in second place.

Yet significant cracks have emerged between the two partners since they emerged the leading forces in government, not least over the writing of the constitution, the role of Islam, federalism and women's rights.

Analyst and Kurdish writer Abdelghani Ali Yehya believes the alliance was never a true meeting of minds in the first place.

"They agreed on certain points without really aligning," he said.

For Yehya the political gulf between the UIA and the Kurds is too large, particularly on the thorny question of the ethnically mixed oil centre of Kirkuk, to be anything other than a marriage of convenience.

The two main Kurdish parties, the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) are keen to make Kirkuk part of the autonomous zone they have controlled since the 1991 Gulf War.

The Shiites do not.

Under ousted president Saddam Hussein's Sunni-dominated regime, large numbers of Kurds were driven out of the city to make way for Arab settlers in a deliberate attempt to change its ethnic make-up.

Since the regime was ousted in 2003, many displaced Kurds have sought to reclaim their homes in a city which has become a melting pot of Arabs [both Shiite and Sunni], Kurds and Turkomen.

The president of Iraqi Kurdistan, Massud Barzani, made clear things were not all well just two days before Thursday's election for a full-term government.

"We were dissatisfied with this alliance because they [the Shiites] did not respect the protocol," he said.

"That doesn't mean we are going to end this alliance, but we are looking to broaden it," he added without elaborating.

Sami Shorash, an official with Barzani's KDP, said any group wishing to align with the Kurds should agree to various conditions.

(MORE)

2//The Daily Star, Lebanon Wednesday, December 21, 2005
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=3&article_id=20912

SELF-SUFFICIENCY MAKES SYRIA SANCTIONS-PROOF
Officials claim pressure on damascus has weak impact on economy

By Raed El Rafei, Daily Star staff

BEIRUT: Any possible international economic sanctions on Syria will have no major impact because the country is self-sufficient and does not have a large external debt, a Syrian official said on Tuesday.

"Pressure on Syria has a weak impact on the economy this year," said Mustafa al-Kafri, director of the investment authority, told The Daily Star during an expert meeting on Foreign Direct Investment held at the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia.

Kafri characterized 2005 as the "year of investment" in Syria, adding that 70 projects presented by Syrian investors, worth $1.6 billion, were approved by the state's Superior Investment Council in September.

In addition, there are plans for a $15 billion tourist resort to be built on Mount Hermon, overlooking the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and Lebanon, he said.

The tourism project, to include hotels, shopping centers, skiing and other sports facilities reachable by cable car, is to be developed by an unspecified group of Syrian, Kuwaiti and Saudi investors, he said.

The spectre of economic sanctions on Syria was getting stronger following a UN investigation team report which accused the regime of assassinating former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri on February 14.

Some analysts say that Syria can survive sanctions on the short and medium terms due to the country's resources.

However, the analysts argue that some sectors of the economy, such as oil will be hit very hard because Syria's oil and gas reserves are very limited.

"There were $2 billion of investments this year in Syria, which is an important figure," Kafri said, adding that the growth in Foreign Direct Investment is expected to rise by 30 percent at the end of 2005.

He said that most of the FDI originate from Saudi Arabia but there are also investments coming from Turkey, the U.A.E. and European countries, mainly Germany. He added that investments are in the industrial but also the tourism sectors.

The government has given its tentative go-ahead on the project, which is expected to be carried out over the next 15 years.

The large presence of Lebanese banks in Syria was not affected either by the tensions between the two countries, according to Souraya al-Edelbi, a member of the Council of State Planning. "Syria relies on the expertise of Lebanese bankers to develop its financial markets," she said.

(MORE)

3//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong Dec 21, 2005
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/GL21Ad01.html

CHINA LAYS DOWN THE GAUNTLET IN ENERGY WAR
By F William Engdahl

On December 15, the state-owned China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) inaugurated an oil pipeline running from Kazakhstan to northwest China. The pipeline will undercut the geopolitical significance of the Washington-backed Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline which opened this past summer amid big fanfare and support from Washington.

The geopolitical chess game for the control of the energy flows of Central Asia and overall of Eurasia from the Atlantic to the China Sea is sharply evident in the latest developments.

Making the Kazakh-China oil pipeline link even more politically interesting, from the standpoint of an emerging Eurasian move towards some form of greater energy independence from Washington, is the fact that China is reportedly considering asking Russian companies to help it fill the pipeline with oil, until Kazakh supply is sufficient.

Initially, half the oil pumped through the new 200,000 barrel-a-day pipeline will come from Russia because of insufficient output from nearby Kazakh fields, Kazakhstan's Vice Energy Minister Musabek Isayev said on November 30 in Beijing. That means closer China-Kazakhstan-Russia energy cooperation - the nightmare scenario of Washington.

Simply put, the United States stands to lose major leverage over the entire strategic Eurasian region with the latest developments. The Kazakh developments also have more than a little to do with the fact that the Washington war drums are beating loudly against Iran.

The new China pipeline runs 962 kilometers (598 miles) and will take China a third of the way to Kashagan in the Caspian Sea, one of the world's largest accessible oil reserves. Kashagan is the largest new oil discovery in decades and exceeds the size of the North Sea. This is a major reason Washington has such a strong interest in supporting democratic regime change in the Central Asia region of late.

In the next 10 years, Kazakhstan plans to almost triple oil production, prompting the landlocked nation to seek new export routes because the country wants to avoid pipelines through Russia and excessive Russian dependence. China is now among Kazakhstan's major target markets.

(MORE)

4//Inter Press Service News Agency, Italy Dec 19, 2005
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=31492

MORALES WILL NEED TO FORGE ALLIANCES
Franz Chávez

LA PAZ, Dec 19 (IPS) - Bolivian President-elect Evo Morales will need to forge agreements with part of the opposition in Congress, set forth a timetable for pushing through actual reforms, and carefully handle the differences within his Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) if he wants to overcome the severe political instability and social problems afflicting this Andean nation, say observers.

According to the preliminary results, the 46-year-old Aymara indigenous leader of Bolivia's coca farmers won a landslide victory with 51 percent of the vote - unprecedented in the past 23 years of democracy in the country - and is preparing to take office in South America's poorest nation, promising to transform the current free-market, neoliberal economic model and put an end to "the colonial state."

Vice President-elect Álvaro García Linera, a mathematician and sociologist by training, and a former guerrilla fighter, announced changes to the economic policies based on trade liberalisation and privatisations followed since 1985, and the "recovery" of the country's natural gas resources, which are currently exploited by foreign oil giants, including Brazil's Petrobras.

But García Linera also expressed support for businesses keen on generating employment, and ensured that the new government would fully respect private investment and savings.

His remarks a few days after the sale of the Banco Santa Cruz bank, which passed from the hands of Spanish to Bolivian investors, and was interpreted as flight of foreign capital in the face of Morales' possible triumph at the polls Sunday.

In Bolivia, the winning candidate must capture 51 percent of the vote in order to win the presidency outright. If this does not occur, Congress votes between the two leading candidates.

Although Morales does not need to strike a deal with the opposition in Congress in order to secure the presidency, he will face firm opposition from the right-wing Podemos movement of his rival Jorge Quiroga, who took 31 percent of the vote, and more moderate opposition from the National Unity party led by businessman Samuel Doria, who came in third with eight percent of the ballots.

According to the projections, MAS will hold 12 seats in the Senate, Podemos 13, and National Unity and the Revolutionary Nationalist Movement (MNR) one each. In the lower house of Congress, MAS will have 53 seats, Podemos 48, National Unity 14, the MNR 11 and the New Republican Force and the Pachakuti Indigenous Movement one each.

In order to govern, Morales will need the support of the National Unity party, with which MAS has some points in common.

Sociologist Raúl Prada told IPS that MAS should put together a government that will bring about real transformations instead of merely "administering the crisis," because the process that culminated in Sunday's elections is a "synthesis of the social struggles of the past few years, carried out on the streets and highways."

The expectations of Morales' supporters focus on a new policy with regard to Bolivia's abundant natural gas resources, which are at the centre of the social and political upheaval of the past three years, and of trade and ties with the United States and other countries in the region.

But above and beyond any formal agenda, Professor Joaquín Saravia told IPS that it is time for the representatives of the Aymara indigenous culture - Bolivia's largest ethnic group - to build a state on the basis of the moral principle of "thou shalt not steal."

(MORE)

5//The Independent, UK Published: 21 December 2005
http://news.independent.co.uk/europe/article334456.ece

ROYAL, THE SOCIALIST, IS TIPPED AS FRANCE’S FIRST FEMALE PRESIDENT
By John Lichfield in Paris

The former cabinet minister Ségolène Royal has begun to outdistance all other potential candidates for the centre-left in the next French presidential election.

Mme Royal, 52, although dismissed by many as a lightweight, is now a strong contender to become the first woman presidential candidate for a leading French political party.

A series of recent polls has placed her far ahead of other potential centre-left candidates in 2007, including her partner, François Hollande, the leader of the Socialist party.

Whether Mme Royal, president of the Poitou-Charente region, is capable of becoming France's first "presidente" remains uncertain. Even friends within the Parti Socialiste suggest she has nothing much to contribute on " big questions", such as the economy and international affairs.

To counter this impression, Mme Royal will this week launch a think-tank and pressure group called Désirs d'avenir (future desires). This is seen as a first step towards creating a formal "Ségolène for President" campaign before the Socialists choose their candidate next October. In an interview with the magazine Le Nouvel Observateur, Mme Royal said that she was "ready" to run for the presidency if the tide of popular opinion continues to run in her favour.

"If this trend persists, which I believe it will, and if left-wing electors ask for me, which I hope that they do, then I will emerge naturally [as the party candidate]," she said. "The others will have no choice. It will be me!" As if conscious that this sounded rather presumptuous, she rapidly added that she would willingly bow out of the race - "without feeling that my life is ruined" - if a stronger candidate emerged.

In the latest opinion survey at the weekend, conducted by CSA for the Journal du Dimanche, Mme Royal was chosen by 36 per cent of those polled as the best candidate of the left.

The former prime minister, Lionel Jospin, a failed presidential candidate in 2002, scored 26 per cent - but he has insisted that he will not run again.

(SNIP)

Mme Royal is an excellent television performer who takes a conservative line on some social issues and a more interventionist, socialist line on economic problems. She has benefited in part from the "Merkel effect". The installation of the first woman Chancellor of Germany has helped to lower the psychological barrier to a woman challenging for the presidency of France.

Mme Royal also seems to have benefited from the uncertain mood of a French electorate, which is desperate to see new faces in power but not necessarily ready for an abrupt change in political direction.

The more cynical barons within the Socialist party suggest that Mme Royal is popular because she is superficially different from the tedious and familiar male faces but offers no threat to the status quo.

They suggest that these advantages are likely to fade and vanish as the election, in May 2007, draws nearer.

Despite much speculation, the mood within the Hollande-Royal household remains unclear. The couple have lived together for 20 years. They have four children but have never married, by her choice.

(MORE)