October 14, 2005

World Media Watch

by Gloria R. Lalumia

BuzzFlash Note: WMW provides BuzzFlash readers foreign views and perspectives that are not usually available from the media here in the U.S. The presentation of these articles from these international publications is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

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WORLD MEDIA WATCH FOR OCTOBER 14, 2005

1//The Jordan Times, Jordan--IRAQI MARINES GEAR UP TO GUARD SOUTHERN OIL TERMINALS (After barely three weeks of training at the hands of the US navy, Iraqi Lieutenant Saba Mohammad Amin is confident that his men are ready to protect Iraq's oil terminals in the Gulf. … . The group commanded by Amin wrapped up its training last week and is supposed to be already operational. They are the first batch to become ready since the programme began in the summer as part of efforts by the US-led coalition to rebuild the Iraqi armed forces. … . "In the US, there is a sense of pride for being in the military," Lieutenant Lee Payne, a 26-year-old from Virginia, explained. "A lot of these guys are here, but it's like another job," he said of the Iraqi marines, stressing that some of them "don't have a sense of duty." "It's going to take at least a few months before they can take over security," he continued. "They have the knowledge, they have the ability to do well. But when we're not here to tell them what to do, will they be able to remember?")

2//The Daily Star, Lebanon--DEBATE ON U.S. DIPLOMACY IN THE MIDDLE EAST AT AUB STARTS WITH A BLUNDER (A discussion on U.S. public diplomacy in the Middle East held at the American University in Beirut yesterday kicked off with an ice-breaking blunder when the moderator referred to the recent death of Syrian Interior Minister Ghazi Kenaan as an "assassination." … . Juliet Wurr, the Public Affairs Officer at the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon, was pitted against Joshua Landis, a Fulbright scholar and author of the increasingly influential webblog Syria Comment, with each speaker offering their analysis of American foreign policy in the Middle East. … . The panel ended on a tense note over a question of Assad's possible involvement in Kenaan's assassination. Landis said he did not believe the suicide had anything to do with the upcoming publication of the UN report, since Mehlis informed him that Kenaan was not a suspect in the Hariri assassination. He "speculates" that if Assad is behind Kenaan's death, it was to neutralize his only opponent. As one of the last Allawite officers from the old guard, Landis suggested Kenaan fitted the bill. According to Landis, "If I was a CIA officer, I would certainly have the name Kenaan in my rolodex.")

RELATED: SyriaComment.com Thoughts on Syrian politics, history and religion
http://faculty-staff.ou.edu/L/Joshua....

3//The Chosun Ilbo, South Korea--SEOUL ASKS FOR RETURN OF WARTIME COMMAND (The Roh Moo-hyun administration took another step yesterday in its push to regain wartime control of the Korean military. That effort has been a major part of Mr. Roh's drive for military self-reliance; he has suggested that foreign control of his nation's troops in wartime was demeaning to Korea. … . The Blue House spokesman, Kim Man-soo, announced yesterday that the administration has asked the U.S. government to begin discussions on changes to the current wartime military command structure here. Under the current procedures, the Combined Forces Command, headed by an American four-star general, would direct the operations of both U.S. and Korean troops if hostilities broke out. … . The Roh administration has initiated several important changes to the security arrangements with the United States that had been in place since the 1950-53 Korean War. Over 12,000 U.S. troops are being withdrawn gradually from Korea, and Seoul has taken over responsibility for ten important military missions earlier handled by U.S. forces. The changes, although both sides portrayed them as having been made after amicable discussions, came partly because of friction between the two allies and because of a U.S. need to bolster U.S. troop strength in Iraq.)

4//RIA/Novosti (Russian News & Information Agency), Russia--OPINION & ANALYSIS: OIL PRICES AND RUSSIA'S RETURN TO SUPERPOWER STATUS (… . The international investment house major Goldman Sachs has upgraded its long-term oil price from $45 a barrel to $60 a barrel and the highly respected International Bank Credit Analyst publication now estimates the price of crude will average $50 a barrel over the next five years. Other industry sources have even suggested the sky-high price at $100 a barrel. While $100 a barrel appears to be over the top as forecast, changes in the world's geopolitics and structural changes in related to petroleum demand are not. Under a regime a $100 a barrel, the world appears to be a very different place, particularly for Russia. Putin's aim of doubling GDP by 2012 would be achieved in 2011. Russians would be recognized as being among the world's great consumers with disposable an income for new all kinds of products, including cars, mobile phones, computers and other big-ticket items. … . Russia's dollar-denominated per capita GDP would be $33,061 and its nominal dollar-denominated GDP ahead of the UK and Germany. … . Like it or not, Russia is on the path of reconstituting the power and influence of the former Soviet Union in world affairs. There is an important difference though - Russia will regain this influence and power under 21st century terms: instead of a threatening conventional military and nuclear arsenal, it will take advantage of its vast oil and gas resources to regain its international prominence. Clearly a $100 barrel a dollar oil regime is not immediately in the cards, but it does demand the world to take pause. Even the conventional wisdom of a $50 a barrel should be a wake up call.)

5//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong--NEW FIVE-YEAR PLAN CALLED 'REVOLUTIONARY' (The 16th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) concluded its fifth plenary session here on October 11, which examined and approved proposals for formulating the 11th Five-Year Plan for National Economy and Social Development. Since 1949, China has, in emulation of the defunct Soviet Union, officially directed the economy according to Five-Year Plans, which lay out growth goals in various industries for the next half decade. … . Chinese leaders have warned against extremes of poverty and wealth, increasing unemployment and intensified social conflict. "Common prosperity is not an unreachable goal, but the basic principle and pursuit of socialism," said Hu. The recognition that economic growth is not equal to economic development and that growth is not the final goal of development, will be included in the 11th Five-Year Plan for the first time, said analysts. Top leaders have criticized old concepts of economic growth many times, saying that "economic development at the center" does not mean "with speed at the center." … . China will control the use of foreign investment in the 11th Five-Year Plan period, said experts. Government statistics show that foreign trade accounts for over 70% of China's economy, and frequent trade frictions have caused huge costs to the economy. … . China will try to change its heavy reliance on foreign investment and resources to secure its national economy in the next five years, said analysts.)

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1//The Jordan Times, Jordan Friday-Saturday, October 14-15, 2005
http://www.jordantimes.com/fri/news/news8.htm

IRAQI MARINES GEAR UP TO GUARD SOUTHERN OIL TERMINALS

BASRA OIL TERMINAL IN THE GULF (AFP) - After barely three weeks of training at the hands of the US navy, Iraqi Lieutenant Saba Mohammad Amin is confident that his men are ready to protect Iraq's oil terminals in the Gulf.

The fledgling Iraqi Marines number around 450. Some 200 of them, divided into five groups, are currently nearing the end of their training on one of the two offshore terminals, ABOT (Al-Basra Oil Terminal), some 10 kilometres from the Iraqi coast.

The group commanded by Amin wrapped up its training last week and is supposed to be already operational. They are the first batch to become ready since the programme began in the summer as part of efforts by the US-led coalition to rebuild the Iraqi armed forces.

The programme is meant to enable Iraqi military personnel to eventually guard ABOT and KAAOT, the Khor Al-Amaya Oil Terminal, two strategic installations of vital importance to the Iraqi economy.

At the moment, the two facilities are protected by the Mobile Security Detachment (MSD), a force set up by the US navy after the 2000 suicide raft attack against the USS Cole in the Yemeni port of Aden that killed 17 American sailors.

(SNIP)

"Over half of them do a pretty good job," Jacobsen said of the Iraqis. But he called standing guard "the main problem" for them.

"It's a discipline problem," he said.

Benjamin Johnson, a 25-year-old from Minnesota, agreed.

"Training with them is challenging. The idea of standing guard 24 hours a day in the same position is foreign to them," said Johnson, manning an outpost on the roof of the building of Iraq's South Oil Company along with a fellow American and two Iraqi Marines. "They have a different attitude about the military."

(SNIP)

"In the US, there is a sense of pride for being in the military," Lieutenant Lee Payne, a 26-year-old from Virginia, explained.

"A lot of these guys are here, but it's like another job," he said of the Iraqi marines, stressing that some of them "don't have a sense of duty."

"It's going to take at least a few months before they can take over security," he continued.
" They have the knowledge, they have the ability to do well. But when we're not here to tell them what to do, will they be able to remember?"

(MORE)

2//The Daily Star, Lebanon Friday, October 14, 2005
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?ed...

DEBATE ON U.S. DIPLOMACY IN THE MIDDLE EAST AT AUB STARTS WITH A BLUNDER
Panel also addresses UN probe report

By Lysandra Ohrstrom
Special to The Daily Star

BEIRUT: A discussion on U.S. public diplomacy in the Middle East held at the American University in Beirut yesterday kicked off with an ice-breaking blunder when the moderator referred to the recent death of Syrian Interior Minister Ghazi Kenaan as an "assassination."

Though ostensibly a debate on U.S. diplomacy in the region, questions regarding Syrian involvement in Lebanon; the upcoming report from the UN's lead investigator into the murder of former Premier Rafik Hariri; and the suicide of a Syrian general who formerly protected the Assad regimes' interests in Lebanon during the occupation continually surfaced.

Juliet Wurr, the Public Affairs Officer at the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon, was pitted against Joshua Landis, a Fulbright scholar and author of the increasingly influential webblog Syria Comment, with each speaker offering their analysis of American foreign policy in the Middle East.

(SNIP)

During the question and answer session, an audience member questioned Landis and Wurr about the chilly diplomatic relations between the U.S. and the increasingly vulnerable Syrian regime.

"I've become a defender of the Assad regime," Landis said, "as many Syrians have, because I look over to Iraq and see the mistakes the U.S. has made. Syrians are terrified that the U.S. will squeeze too hard and there will be some sort of ethnic civil war."

The panel ended on a tense note over a question of Assad's possible involvement in Kenaan's assassination. Landis said he did not believe the suicide had anything to do with the upcoming publication of the UN report, since Mehlis informed him that Kenaan was not a suspect in the Hariri assassination. He "speculates" that if Assad is behind Kenaan's death, it was to neutralize his only opponent.

As one of the last Allawite officers from the old guard, Landis suggested Kenaan fitted the bill.
According to Landis, "If I was a CIA officer, I would certainly have the name Kenaan in my rolodex."

RELATED: SyriaComment.com Thoughts on Syrian politics, history and religion
http://faculty-staff.ou.edu/L/Joshua.M.Landis-1/syriablog/index.html

3//The Chosun Ilbo, South Korea October 14, 2005 KST 06:24 (GMT+9)
http://joongangdaily.joins.com/200510/12/2...

SEOUL ASKS FOR RETURN OF WARTIME COMMAND

The Roh Moo-hyun administration took another step yesterday in its push to regain wartime control of the Korean military. That effort has been a major part of Mr. Roh's drive for military self-reliance; he has suggested that foreign control of his nation's troops in wartime was demeaning to Korea. He last spoke publicly on the issue in a speech to commemorate Korea's Armed Forces Day earlier this month.

The Blue House spokesman, Kim Man-soo, announced yesterday that the administration has asked the U.S. government to begin discussions on changes to the current wartime military command structure here. Under the current procedures, the Combined Forces Command, headed by an American four-star general, would direct the operations of both U.S. and Korean troops if hostilities broke out.

"The government proposed the idea at the Security Policy Initiative meeting at the end of last month," Blue House spokesman said yesterday, speaking of a U.S.-Korea military forum. He said the two governments had begun a study of the concept in January 2004, and that the study would serve as the basis for negotiations leading to a change.

It was not clear, however, what Seoul wants to replace the current system. Unless the intent were to try to repel an attack on Korea by two forces under two different commands, the only alternatives would be a dual command structure or the subordination of U.S. forces under Korean command.

(SNIP)

Mr. Kim, the spokesman, said Washington has not yet responded to Seoul's proposal, but added that the Defense Ministry expects the subject to come up at the annual Security Consultative Meeting of the two countries' defense ministers. That meeting will begin on Oct. 21.

The Roh administration has initiated several important changes to the security arrangements with the United States that had been in place since the 1950-53 Korean War. Over 12,000 U.S. troops are being withdrawn gradually from Korea, and Seoul has taken over responsibility for ten important military missions earlier handled by U.S. forces. The changes, although both sides portrayed them as having been made after amicable discussions, came partly because of friction between the two allies and because of a U.S. need to bolster U.S. troop strength in Iraq.

Some worried senior military officials cautioned yesterday that any change in the current command structure should only be made after Seoul's capability to deter an attack is unquestioned. The government announced last month a major reduction in its troop numbers, from the current 680,000 troops to 500,000 by the year 2020, with a major increase in the war-fighting capabilities of that leaner force.

4//RIA/Novosti (Russian News & Information Agency) 16:11 13/10/2005
http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20051013/41762418.html

OPINION & ANALYSIS: OIL PRICES AND RUSSIA'S RETURN TO SUPERPOWER STATUS
RIA Novosti political commentator Peter Lavelle

MOSCOW. International oil prices have scaled heights not seen in 25 years and there are many reasons to believe that they are here to stay.

Forecasting long-term oil prices is a hazardous exercise at best. In the past, geopolitical instability has wrecked the most carefully designed petroleum price projections. In the 1970s, the Arab-Israeli conflict sent crude prices soaring. Much closer to the present, the Iraq war and instability in the Greater Middle East, worker unrest in Nigeria and a confrontational Venezuelan leadership toward the United States have also strongly influenced how economists forecast future oil prices.

Dealing with geopolitical instability will always be part of the equation when making oil price projections, but there may be an issue in play today that makes the present and near-term very different from the past 25 years: a structural shift recasting the balance between supply and demand. For most of the last quarter century the unpredictability of supply drove oil prices; for the next quarter century the driver will be supply dynamics that could see the price stay higher for longer than it has before - and Russia the key player in this new arrangement.

Higher and sustained oil prices should be expected based on the combination of uncertainty about supply (geopolitical instability), projections of continued long-term strong demand from China and India with huge populations of more than one billion people apiece and experiencing robust growth, as well as the inevitable weakening of OPEC. Add to this the petroleum reserve growth has appeared to plateaued over recent years even as prices have soared and global inventories have consistently declined as a percentage of consumption, making petroleum a more volatile, and by implication more expensive, commodity.

What does this mean for Russia?

Assuming a sustained oil price regime of $50 a barrel over the next decade, President Vladimir Putin's aim of doubling the country's GDP by 2012, considered by most Russia watchers and economists in 2002 (when the target was announced) as delusional, would not be possible - but will actually occur a year later. During the next decade, Russia's average monthly income would rise from the current $300 to $1,386, bolstering strong support for the current consumption boom; the country's nominal dollar-based GDP would be $2.8 trillion (this year's figure is expected at $743 billion), surpassing Spain's; and Russia's per capita GDP would be $20,073, chasing Portugal's $25,658.

(SNIP)

The international investment house major Goldman Sachs has upgraded its long-term oil price from $45 a barrel to $60 a barrel and the highly respected International Bank Credit Analyst publication now estimates the price of crude will average $50 a barrel over the next five years. Other industry sources have even suggested the sky-high price at $100 a barrel.

While $100 a barrel appears to be over the top as forecast, changes in the world's geopolitics and structural changes in related to petroleum demand are not. Under a regime a $100 a barrel, the world appears to be a very different place, particularly for Russia.

Putin's aim of doubling GDP by 2012 would be achieved in 2011. Russians would be recognized as being among the world's great consumers with disposable an income for new all kinds of products, including cars, mobile phones, computers and other big-ticket items. At $100 a barrel, the average monthly income of the average Russia would increase from $300 in 2005 to $2,270 in 2015. Russia's dollar-denominated per capita GDP would be $33,061 and its nominal dollar-denominated GDP ahead of the UK and Germany.

(SNIP)

Like it or not, Russia is on the path of reconstituting the power and influence of the former Soviet Union in world affairs. There is an important difference though - Russia will regain this influence and power under 21st century terms: instead of a threatening conventional military and nuclear arsenal, it will take advantage of its vast oil and gas resources to regain its international prominence. Clearly a $100 barrel a dollar oil regime is not immediately in the cards, but it does demand the world to take pause. Even the conventional wisdom of a $50 a barrel should be a wake up call.

5//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong Oct 13, 2005
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/GJ13Cb01.html

NEW FIVE-YEAR PLAN CALLED 'REVOLUTIONARY'

BEIJING - The 16th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) concluded its fifth plenary session here on October 11, which examined and approved proposals for formulating the 11th Five-Year Plan for National Economy and Social Development. Since 1949, China has, in emulation of the defunct Soviet Union, officially directed the economy according to Five-Year Plans, which lay out growth goals in various industries for the next half decade.

The four-day meeting discussed a draft proposal set forth by the CPC Central Committee on the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010). Participating in the meeting were 191 members and 150 alternate members of the CPC Central Committee. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee presided over the meeting.

Hu Jintao, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, gave a working report on behalf of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee. Premier Wen Jiabao then further explained the draft proposal. China's new Five-Year Plan, the roadmap for the country's development in the next five years, will bring revolutionary changes, analysts said here in Beijing.

From "getting rich first" to "common prosperity"

The theory proposed by the late chief architect of China's reforms, Deng Xiaoping, in the 1970s to allow some of the people to get rich first, will give away to "common prosperity" in a bid to bridge the growing gap between the rich and the poor, and to avoid polarization of society.

This will represent a historic adjustment to the pattern of five-year plans since China began its market-oriented economic reforms in the 1970s. "It shows that the CPC will give special attention to the construction of a balanced market economy," said Hu Angang, an expert on macroeconomics at Qinghua University.

After China decided to launch economic reforms in 1978, Deng Xiaoping proposed the principle of allowing some regions and people to get rich first in order to achieve a final "common prosperity". The new idea departed from egalitarianism, yet managed to energize the country. More than 20 years later, the average gross domestic product (GDP) per capita has risen above US$1,000 and is expected to reach $3,000 in 2020.

But China's rapid economic growth has engendered new problems. The lowest-income families, comprising the bottom 10% of all families, own less than 2% of all assets in the society, while the highest-income families, or the top 10% of all the families, own over 40% of total assets, government statistics show.

Chinese leaders have warned against extremes of poverty and wealth, increasing unemployment and intensified social conflict. "Common prosperity is not an unreachable goal, but the basic principle and pursuit of socialism," said Hu.

From "growth rate" to "sustainable development"

The recognition that economic growth is not equal to economic development and that growth is not the final goal of development, will be included in the 11th Five-Year Plan for the first time, said analysts. Top leaders have criticized old concepts of economic growth many times, saying that "economic development at the center" does not mean "with speed at the center."

(SNIP)

China will control the use of foreign investment in the 11th Five-Year Plan period, said experts. Government statistics show that foreign trade accounts for over 70% of China's economy, and frequent trade frictions have caused huge costs to the economy.

At the same time, China has become a major global consumer of energy resources. International energy institutions predict that from 2020 to 2030 around 21% of the world's new demand for energy resources will come from China. In 2004, nearly 50% of the petroleum used in China was imported. China will try to change its heavy reliance on foreign investment and resources to secure its national economy in the next five years, said analysts.

(MORE)

Copyright 2005, Gloria R. Lalumia