July 22, 2005

World Media Watch

by Gloria R. Lalumia

BuzzFlash Note: WMW provides BuzzFlash readers foreign views and perspectives that are not usually available from the media here in the U.S. The presentation of these articles from these international publications is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

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WORLD MEDIA WATCH FOR JULY 22, 2005

1//News.com.au, Australia--TROOPS 'WON'T REPLACE BRITISH FORCES' (Australia had no intention of sending more troops to Iraq to replace departing British forces, Defence Minister Robert Hill said today. … "If you're asking me will we send further people to replace any others that are leaving, no we have no intention of doing that," Senator Hill said. … "When we complete our training of the Iraqi security forces in southern Iraq we trust that they'll be able to take over the security function and we will no longer be necessary," Senator Hill said.)

2//The Independent, UK--KARZAI UNDER SIEGE FROM TALIBAN IN RUN-UP TO POLLS (… Yesterday, in London, Mr Karzai laid a wreath at King's Cross station to the sole Afghan victim of the 7 July bombings, during a whirlwind two days in which he had wall-to-wall meetings with political and business leaders. Back home in Kabul he is under siege as never before. The Taliban have stepped up their attacks in the south of the country, two months away from parliamentary elections. Many believe that with the help of their former backers, Pakistan's ISI military intelligence, and infiltrated by al-Qa'ida, the Taliban are bent on returning to power through the gun rather than the ballot box. … He pointedly declined to praise Pakistani co-operation when asked how helpful Islamabad has been. "We are in contact with them. I spoke to the President twice at the height of those activities, the US government is in touch with them. For us, the end result is very important: that is, when these activities are reduced or when they cease completely, then we would call our co-operation successful.")

3//Power and Interest News Report, US--STRIKING FEAR IN ITALY (… Faced with both economic and political crises, Italy looks vulnerable militarily, and also politically, to a possible terrorist attack. The London attacks have complicated the withdrawal from Iraq even further because the battle over the timing of the Italian troops' departure now incorporates a new variable: its perception in terms of an unacceptable yielding to terrorist threats. Concern over creating this perception is likely to be reiterated, and to gain even more prominence as the country enters a year of decisive institutional change. A gradual withdrawal from Iraq appears likely, in part because pulling out little by little could mitigate the political significance and insight of such a move. Widespread insecurity and political instability will hamper the government's ability to perform significant reforms in its last year before the elections. Therefore, a continuation of the country's malaise and poor economic performance is to be expected. In the event of a worsening of the Iraq conflict - involving an early withdrawal of US troops - look for Rome to rapidly seek to reestablish closer ties with Paris and Berlin.)

4//dw-Worlde.de/Deutsche Welle, Germany--SCHRODER TO PULL THE IRAQ CARD AGAIN? (Although the US-led Iraq war no longer plays a prominent role in German political debate, there are indications that Chancellor Gerhard Schröder may recycle the issue which brought him victory in 2002. The Iraq war was one of the most important, if not the defining, campaign issue during the 2002 German elections. Gerhard Schröder won re-election largely because he reflected the German public opinion at the time by loudly opposing the build-up to war in Iraq and criticizing the United States for planning an invasion. The 2005 election is bound to be quite different. Even though Iraq remained a hot-button issue in the British, Spanish and US elections over the past year and a half, these days Germans are mostly preoccupied with domestic issues, most notably the unemployment rate, which has reached post-war highs under Schröder's government. … The importance of the domestic agenda, however, has increased the chances of Angela Merkel becoming Germany's first woman chancellor. The latest opinion poll gave her conservative Christian Union bloc a clear lead of 17 percentage points. … On the question of Iraq, Merkel has attempted to balance her support for the US intervention with an unwillingness to send German troops to Iraq. Recently, however, she has been increasingly vociferous about criticizing the Social Democrats for hurting US - German relations.)

5//The Daily Star, Lebanon--OMAN TAKES STEPS TO SAFEGUARD FUTURE WITHOUT OIL (This sultanate in the southeast corner of the Arabian Peninsula has a relatively healthy economy today, but may face a crisis years down the road without careful, intelligent leadership. The task before the country's ruler, Sultan Qaboos bin Said, is to overcome oil dependency and reliance on foreign workers and create a diversified economy that will outlast his country's oil reserves. The oldest independent state in the Arab world, Oman has an economy which, like those of many of its neighbors, is heavily based on oil production. While recent high oil prices have driven state revenues well above predictions, production levels - currently at 750,000 barrels per day - have actually fallen considerably in recent years, dropping 8.9 percent between 2002 and 2003 alone. … Sultan Qaboos will need to work quickly, as some estimate that the oilfields will run dry in less than 20 years.)

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1//News.com.au, Australia July 21, 2005
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117...

TROOPS 'WON'T REPLACE BRITISH FORCES'

Australia had no intention of sending more troops to Iraq to replace departing British forces, Defence Minister Robert Hill said today.

British Defence Secretary John Reid this week said he expected British troops would start pulling out of Iraq during the next year.

But Prime Minister John Howard has refused to outline Australia's exit plan or departure date.

At HMAS Albatross on the NSW south coast, Senator Hill today rejected suggestions Australian troops would have to take up the slack as the Brits pulled out of southern Iraq.

"If you're asking me will we send further people to replace any others that are leaving, no we have no intention of doing that," Senator Hill said.

"We would like to see our troops home as soon as the job is done."

(SNIP)

"When we complete our training of the Iraqi security forces in southern Iraq we trust that they'll be able to take over the security function and we will no longer be necessary," Senator Hill said.

2//The Independent, UK Published: 21 July 2005
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/asia/article300529.ece

KARZAI UNDER SIEGE FROM TALIBAN IN RUN-UP TO POLLS
By Anne Penketh, Diplomatic Editor

When President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan enters the room, you are reminded that this is the man once described by Tom Ford of Gucci as "the chicest man on the planet."

His grey tunic is impeccably pressed. His dark navy jacket hangs elegantly on his slim frame.

Yet it will take more than dress sense for the President to survive the latest challenge to his rule. His fusion of Afghan and Western savvy is being severely tested at this time.

Yesterday, in London, Mr Karzai laid a wreath at King's Cross station to the sole Afghan victim of the 7 July bombings, during a whirlwind two days in which he had wall-to-wall meetings with political and business leaders.

Back home in Kabul he is under siege as never before. The Taliban have stepped up their attacks in the south of the country, two months away from parliamentary elections.

Many believe that with the help of their former backers, Pakistan's ISI military intelligence, and infiltrated by al-Qa'ida, the Taliban are bent on returning to power through the gun rather than the ballot box.

Over the past year, the attacks in the south-east have become much more targeted and professional, according to senior British officials who express disappointment that even in Mr Karzai's home region of Kandahar the insurgency is on the rise.

"They are shooting clergy, unarmed clergy. They're killing women. They go and burn a school made of tents," President Karzai said yesterday in an interview, noting that cross-border activity from Pakistan was contributing to the unrest. Twenty-four insurgents were killed on the border last week.

He pointedly declined to praise Pakistani co-operation when asked how helpful Islamabad has been. "We are in contact with them. I spoke to the President twice at the height of those activities, the US government is in touch with them. For us, the end result is very important: that is, when these activities are reduced or when they cease completely, then we would call our co-operation successful."

Asked about foreign involvement in the Islamic insurgency, he said: "A lot of them are foreign." Authorities had arrested attackers from Arab countries, from Pakistan, and from central Asia, including from Kazakhstan, he said.

(MORE)

3//Power and Interest News Report, US 21 July, 2005
http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report...

STRIKING FEAR IN ITALY
By Federico Bordonaro

On July 18, a group called Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades - which claimed responsibility for the July 7 attacks on London's public transportation system - threatened Italy via the Internet. The statement warned that Rome should withdraw its troops from Iraq within one month if it wanted to avoid a terrorist attack similar to the ones executed in Madrid and London. The authors of the message added that this would be Italy's last warning. The al-Masri Brigades also threatened Italy on August 29, 2004, likewise demanding the withdrawal of Italy's military contingent from Iraq.

This explicit terrorist threat (which evokes the possibility of using chemical weapons against Italian cities) comes at a time of feverish government activity to counter Islamist terror cells in Italian territory, and in the midst of a very confused political battle over new anti-terror measures proposed by Interior Minister Giuseppe Pisanu.

(SNIP)

On July 12, the Italian military intelligence agency SISMI released an alarming report stating that some 300 Islamist suicide fighters successfully reached Iraq from Italy. Because of this, questions are being asked as to how Italy can eliminate terrorist cells within its own country when it cannot even stop militants from leaving Italy to fight in Iraq.

As a matter of fact, Italian political parties do not share a common view of Italy's security, either in foreign or in domestic affairs. Berlusconi's government had wagered on the US's ability to forge a democratic and pro-Western Middle East in 2002-2003, and is now very worried about a possible US failure. Propositions to pull out troops earlier than expected go beyond the current terrorist threats and current election strategy.

In addition, the link between the Iraq conflict and the wave of terrorist attacks in Europe is all too obvious in the view of the neo-communist left, but is in no way evident according to the more pro-American right wing. Moreover, any real strategic vision on immigration is completely lacking, as in the past decades the issue has been analyzed in purely economic or merely cultural terms, with very little geopolitical insight. What is sure, however, is that the London bombings have had a deep impact on Italy's politics.

The bottom line

Faced with both economic and political crises, Italy looks vulnerable militarily, and also politically, to a possible terrorist attack. The London attacks have complicated the withdrawal from Iraq even further because the battle over the timing of the Italian troops' departure now incorporates a new variable: its perception in terms of an unacceptable yielding to terrorist threats. Concern over creating this perception is likely to be reiterated, and to gain even more prominence as the country enters a year of decisive institutional change. A gradual withdrawal from Iraq appears likely, in part because pulling out little by little could mitigate the political significance and insight of such a move.

Widespread insecurity and political instability will hamper the government's ability to perform significant reforms in its last year before the elections. Therefore, a continuation of the country's malaise and poor economic performance is to be expected. In the event of a worsening of the Iraq conflict - involving an early withdrawal of US troops - look for Rome to rapidly seek to reestablish closer ties with Paris and Berlin.

4//dw-Worlde.de/Deutsche Welle, Germany 21.07.2005
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,1564,1655586,00.html

SCHRODER TO PLAY THE IRAQ CARD AGAIN?

Although the US-led Iraq war no longer plays a prominent role in German political debate, there are indications that Chancellor Gerhard Schröder may recycle the issue which brought him victory in 2002.

The Iraq war was one of the most important, if not the defining, campaign issue during the 2002 German elections. Gerhard Schröder won re-election largely because he reflected the German public opinion at the time by loudly opposing the build-up to war in Iraq and criticizing the United States for planning an invasion.

The 2005 election is bound to be quite different. Even though Iraq remained a hot-button issue in the British, Spanish and US elections over the past year and a half, these days Germans are mostly preoccupied with domestic issues, most notably the unemployment rate, which has reached post-war highs under Schröder's government.

A slight chance

The continuing violence in Iraq and recent terrorist attacks in London, however, may be presenting a window of opportunity for Schröder to wave his pacifist flag again.

"You can't expect the Chancellor to ignore the issue that got him elected last time around," a senior advisor to Schröder said last week.

The Social Democrats have stressed in their election program that if it had been up to the opposition Christian Democrats, German troops would be in Iraq today.

Joschka Fischer, German foreign minister, made a similar connection during an impassioned July 1 speech in the parliament, when he cited Germany's refusal to participate in the Iraq war as one of the "reasons to be proud of what we have achieved."

Overwhelming domestic issues

The importance of the domestic agenda, however, has increased the chances of Angela Merkel becoming Germany's first woman chancellor. The latest opinion poll gave her conservative Christian Union bloc a clear lead of 17 percentage points.

(SNIP)

On the question of Iraq, Merkel has attempted to balance her support for the US intervention with an unwillingness to send German troops to Iraq. Recently, however, she has been increasingly vociferous about criticizing the Social Democrats for hurting US - German relations.

Desperation?

"I do get the impression that Schröder and the SPD are trying to make the old Iraq debate an election issue again," said Wolfgang Schäuble, a foreign policy expert for the CDU.

"That is above all a sign they are desperate and lack good, forward-looking arguments for why people should vote for them," he said.

(MORE)

5//The Daily Star, Lebanon Thursday, July 21, 2005
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&ca...

OMAN TAKES STEPS TO SAFEGUARD FUTURE WITHOUT OIL
By Daniel Epps
Special to The Daily Star

BEIRUT: This sultanate in the southeast corner of the Arabian Peninsula has a relatively healthy economy today, but may face a crisis years down the road without careful, intelligent leadership. The task before the country's ruler, Sultan Qaboos bin Said, is to overcome oil dependency and reliance on foreign workers and create a diversified economy that will outlast his country's oil reserves.

The oldest independent state in the Arab world, Oman has an economy which, like those of many of its neighbors, is heavily based on oil production. While recent high oil prices have driven state revenues well above predictions, production levels - currently at 750,000 barrels per day - have actually fallen considerably in recent years, dropping 8.9 percent between 2002 and 2003 alone.

Even before the decline, OPEC nonmember Oman's production wasn't even a tenth of the output of neighboring OPEC power Saudi Arabia. And while the oil currently accounts for more than 40 percent of Oman's $24 billion GDP, it won't last forever. If no other industries pick up the slack, Oman's economy will tailspin. Economic growth will be nonexistent unless new sources of revenue are found.

Sultan Qaboos will need to work quickly, as some estimate that the oilfields will run dry in less than 20 years.

Luckily for Omanis, the sultan seems aware of what needs to be done. Since taking power from his father in a bloodless 1970 coup, Qaboos has slowly modernized his country, using oil revenues to improve infrastructure and liberalizing economic policies. State-controlled utilities are gradually being privatized.

(SNIP)

More needs to be done to fight corruption, however, as was made apparent by a recent scandal in which officials of the Omani company National Gas were found to be diverting gas to other countries for personal gain. If recent history is any indication, the pro-business Qaboos and his elected council of advisers will attempt to address the problem.

With an eye toward reducing high unemployment - realistically estimated at between 15 and 20 percent - Sultan Qaboos has begun a campaign of "Omanification." As part of the program, the government is working to replace the large number of foreign expatriates in the workforce with Omanis by emphasizing school instruction in technology and business. While regulations designed to encourage the use of native workers have rankled some foreign companies, the government believes Omanification is the right strategy for the future as Oman's notably young population continues to grow.

(SNIP)

To fully transition out of oil dependence, Oman will need to create new revenue streams. Plans to better tap the country's significant gas resources are under way, although dependence on another fossil fuel cannot is ultimately only a temporary solution.

(MORE)