June 20, 2005

World Media Watch

by Gloria R. Lalumia

BuzzFlash Note: WMW provides BuzzFlash readers foreign views and perspectives that are not usually available from the media here in the U.S. The presentation of these articles from these international publications is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

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WORLD MEDIA WATCH FOR JUNE 20, 2005

1//Inter Press Service News Agency, Italy--ANALYSIS: THE DEMOCRATIC ENGINE IS JUST NOT STARTING (Now that Sunni Arabs have been included, Iraq's parliamentary committee that is drafting the new constitution is the closest to an elected, representative body that the country has ever seen. In the two months that the committee now has to come up with the draft and in the referendum that will follow in October, it will become clear if that is enough to stabilise the country and reduce the violence. … Early signs are not encouraging, especially from the Sunni side. While members of the Sunni political, social and religious groups that negotiated the deal to join the constitutional committee voiced hopes that their participation would increase peace and stability, the influential Sunni Committee of Muslim Scholars denounced the deal. … In the end Iraq may not be able to solve all these questions and the only thing that may really count is strengthening of the army and the security forces so that a central government can impose its will on reluctant parts of society. Unfortunately, progress towards that goal is extremely slow and uneven. Iraqis who see that the government has no power to impose its own laws may be even less inclined to vote for a then meaningless constitution.)

2//KurdishMedia.com, UK--BARZANI DEFENDS KURDISH DEMANDS IN IRAQI PARLIAMENT (The new president of Iraqi Kurdistan, Massoud Barzani, defended the demands of his people before the national parliament on Sunday and said the new constitution must be based on previous agreements and current interim law. "If we use the Transitional Administrative Law (TAL) and our agreements before the fall (of Saddam Hussein) as a basis, then we will be able to write and approve the permanent constitution on time," the former rebel leader told MPs in Baghdad. … The law calls for the drafting of the constitution by August 15 and putting it to national referendum by October 15, although it does allow for a one-off six-month delay. … Kurds, long oppressed under Saddam’s regime and now a pivotal partner with Shiites in the transitional government, have been pushing hard for enshrining the principle of federalism in the constitution. They also want the northern oil city of Kirkuk to be included in their autonomous region. This has angered Sunni Arabs and Turkmen in Kirkuk, which has seen increased violence in recent days. … "We must apply article 58 and admit Kirkuk’s Kurdish character and make it a symbol of coexistence," insisted Barzani.)

3//The Philippine Daily Inquirer, Philippines--IRAQ MORE DANGEROUS NOW, SAYS ENVOY (The country’s top diplomat in Iraq reiterated the government's deployment ban to the war-torn country, saying it had become more dangerous there. "Sobrang delikado talaga (It's become really dangerous). It is more deadly now than, say, three months ago," Charge d' Affaires Eric Endaya said Friday. Endaya said he had in fact begun going around with a bodyguard. He also discouraged Filipinos from going to the Philippine embassy there because of the "high risks" that traveling around Iraq involved.)

4//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong--US SPINS THE UN MERRY-GO-ROUND (The prospects of UN reform have unexpectedly taken a new momentum, with the US administration saying it will support the addition of two new permanent members to the UN Security Council (UNSC). According to a senior official in the George W Bush administration, of the two new members Washington will back, one will be Japan and the other will be from the developing world - either Brazil or India, with the prospects of India considerably higher, given the criterion of selection. … If the US does back India, it will be the first time, in the face of Pakistan's resistance against any such move. The situation further muddies the water for China, which has backed India in the past but is dead set against Japan entering the UNSC. Of the nations bidding for permanent membership on the council - Germany, Japan, India and Brazil - the US has endorsed Japan, emphasizing that the country gives more money to the world body than current members Britain, France, Russia and China put together. The US opposes Germany. Its refusal to back Berlin's bid is a rebuff to a major European ally. … Politics, of course, spill over to business, with both the US and China eyeing India as a huge untapped market for manufactured goods and arms contracts (especially the US), as well as a back-end information-technology powerhouse. Curiously, the US mind change came when the country warned India on Thursday that it would be making a mistake if it went ahead with a gas pipeline project with Iran and that the US would continue to discourage such projects (see US plays spoiler in pipeline accord June 17). According to Stephen G Rademaker, assistant secretary of state for arms control, Iran could use the money from the project for illegitimate purposes.)

5//The Independent, UK--BLAIR GAMBLES ON APPEAL TO ‘PEOPLE’S EUROPE’ (Unrepentant over the collapse of Friday's EU summit, Tony Blair will embark on a campaign this week to appeal to European opinion over the heads of Jacques Chirac, Gerhard Schröder and other leaders of "old Europe." The Prime Minister flew home yesterday with the recriminations of half of Europe ringing in his ears. Most other European leaders blamed the failure of the summit on his refusal to make concessions on Britain's EU budget rebate unless they were linked to reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy. But Mr Blair believes that the European public supports his ideas for modernising the EU, an argument he intends to pursue during Britain's six-month presidency, which begins next week. The Luxembourg Prime Minister, Jean-Claude Juncker, who chaired the talks as the current holder of the presidency, was so angry when the summit ended, according to British officials, that his country is threatening to refuse to co-operate when it hands over to Britain. Mr Juncker warned that the EU is now "in deep crisis." Mr Blair's crusade will begin with a speech to the European Parliament in Brussels on Thursday, when he will tell European MPs not to confuse his stance with that taken by Margaret Thatcher.)

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1//Inter Press Service News Agency, Italy Jun 17, 2005
http://www.kurdmedia.com/news.asp?id=7100

ANALYSIS: THE DEMOCRATIC ENGINE IS JUST NOT STARTING
Analysis by Ferry Biedermann

AMMAN, Jun 17 (IPS) - Now that Sunni Arabs have been included, Iraq's parliamentary committee that is drafting the new constitution is the closest to an elected, representative body that the country has ever seen.

In the two months that the committee now has to come up with the draft and in the referendum that will follow in October, it will become clear if that is enough to stabilise the country and reduce the violence.

It is by now a truism to say that the Sunnis, who ruled the country for centuries before the fall of Saddam Hussein two years ago despite being a minority, are largely responsible for the insurgency. They are said to chafe at their loss of power, and consequently income, and are fighting either to restore their old dominance or to cut a better deal. The coming months should show whether the rest of Iraq can cope with these issues and whether this really is what it is all about.

Early signs are not encouraging, especially from the Sunni side. While members of the Sunni political, social and religious groups that negotiated the deal to join the constitutional committee voiced hopes that their participation would increase peace and stability, the influential Sunni Committee of Muslim Scholars denounced the deal.

"We can never accept any process orchestrated from behind the scenes by the occupation," said Sheikh Abdel Salam al-Kubaisi from the Committee.

Such pronouncements should be taken seriously as they have in the past provided a clear indication of the mood among the insurgents.

(SNIP)

That the Sunnis have now joined the constitution drafting process is seen as a sign that they are willing to join the political system after having largely boycotted January's parliamentary elections. They only hold 17 seats in the 275-member Council.

Another positive sign is the apparent willingness of the government of prime minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari to embrace inclusiveness, albeit after U.S. urging.

But powerful Shiite leaders, such as Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, have made very clear that they will not tolerate any challenges to the political dominance of their group in the new Iraq, based on their numbers. How much leeway he will give the Shiite politicians may well depend on how his more radical, and anti-American rival Moqtada Sadr reacts to the constitutional process.

(SNIP)

The final document will first have to be approved by parliament but then it will face a much tougher hurdle in a referendum that is set for October. In that poll, the draft will have to get the nod from at least 16 out of Iraq's 18 governorates. Four governorates have Sunni majorities, giving them a blocking vote.

If the constitution is rejected, new elections will follow and the process will start all over again, which may be an attractive option for the Sunnis who feel seriously underrepresented, and for the insurgents who could see a chance to wreak more havoc.

(SNIP)

Even without all this, it would be hard to see whether Iraqis can ever draw up a constitution that will reconcile the positions of all groups. Unfortunately this has little to do with high-minded demands and more with a fight over the division of the spoils.

It is hard to see, for example, how Kurds and Sunnis will resolve their disagreement over the oil-rich northern city of Kirkuk, which is claimed by both. And will oil income from the Shiite south be shared with the rest of the country?

Will the presidency, the prime minister's position and central government ministries be assigned on a sectarian basis? And what about government contracts and jobs? Because that is what it is all about, with each group demanding its share and not having any confidence that a neutral system will emerge.

On questions of principle, the divisions run at least as deep. Kurdish autonomy is a foregone conclusion but how about the role of Islam in the country? Kurds are dead set against it, Shiites are in favour of a strong Islamic flavour, and Sunnis are somewhere in the middle, in favour of their own brand of Islam but furiously opposed to what they see as the "Iranian" tendencies of the Shiites.

In the end Iraq may not be able to solve all these questions and the only thing that may really count is strengthening of the army and the security forces so that a central government can impose its will on reluctant parts of society.

Unfortunately, progress towards that goal is extremely slow and uneven. Iraqis who see that the government has no power to impose its own laws may be even less inclined to vote for a then meaningless constitution.

2//KurdishMedia.com, UK 19/06/2005 10h51
http://www.kurdmedia.com/news.asp?id=7100

BARZANI DEFENDS KURDISH DEMANDS IN IRAQI PARLIAMENT

BAGHDAD, June 19 (AFP) - 10h51 - The new president of Iraqi Kurdistan, Massoud Barzani, defended the demands of his people before the national parliament on Sunday and said the new constitution must be based on previous agreements and current interim law.

"If we use the Transitional Administrative Law (TAL) and our agreements before the fall (of Saddam Hussein) as a basis, then we will be able to write and approve the permanent constitution on time," the former rebel leader told MPs in Baghdad.

"We all agreed that the TAL would be the basis and we must stick to that. We must not back away from it."

The TAL was passed under the previous US-led occupation authority that ruled Iraq from after the fall of ousted leader Saddam Hussein in April 2003 until June 2004.

The law calls for the drafting of the constitution by August 15 and putting it to national referendum by October 15, although it does allow for a one-off six-month delay.

(SNIP)

Barzani, son of the father of Kurdish nationalism Mullah Mustafa Barzani, was sworn on June 14 as regional president of Iraqi Kurdistan which includes the three northern provinces of Sulaimaniyah, Arbil and Dohuk.

Kurds, long oppressed under Saddam’s regime and now a pivotal partner with Shiites in the transitional government, have been pushing hard for enshrining the principal of federalism in the constitution.

They also want the northern oil city of Kirkuk to be included in their autonomous region. This has angered Sunni Arabs and Turkmen in Kirkuk, which has seen increased violence in recent days.

Kurds want all those allegedly forced out of Kirkuk during Saddam’s Arabisation drive in the area to be allowed back and their property returned to them. They also want a census to be held after the return.

The mechanism is outlined in article 58 of the TAL.

"We must apply article 58 and admit Kirkuk’s Kurdish character and make it a symbol of coexistence," insisted Barzani.

3//The Philippine Daily Inquirer, Philippines Sun, June 19, 2005, Philippines
http://www.inq7.net/globalnation/sec_new/2005/jun/19-01.htm

IRAQ MORE DANGEROUS NOW, SAYS ENVOY
By Nikko Dizon, Inquirer News Service

The country’s top diplomat in Iraq reiterated the government's deployment ban to the war-torn country, saying it had become more dangerous there.

"Sobrang delikado talaga (It's become really dangerous). It is more deadly now than, say, three months ago," Charge d' Affaires Eric Endaya said Friday.

Endaya said he had in fact begun going around with a bodyguard. He also discouraged Filipinos from going to the Philippine embassy there because of the "high risks" that traveling around Iraq involved.

The diplomat said he now communicates with the Filipino community there via e-mail.
The spate of violent incidents that has rocked Iraq the past weeks has led to the rising death toll among Iraqis and US troops.

Voter registration

Despite the danger and the government's travel ban, however, Endaya said Filipinos continued to arrive in Iraq to work. They slip into the country through Kuwait, Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi, he said.

Beginning October, more than 6,000 Filipinos are expected to converge on the Philippine Embassy in Baghdad to register for the overseas absentee voting, said Endaya, who is in Manila for the recently concluded training on the voters' registration.

Endaya's estimate of 6,000 registrants is 2,000 higher than the official government figures of the number of Filipino workers in Iraq.

(MORE)

4//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong Jun 18, 2005
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/GF18Df02.html

US SPINS THE UN MERRY-GO-ROUND

By Siddharth Srivastava

NEW DELHI - The prospects of UN reform have unexpectedly taken a new momentum, with the US administration saying it will support the addition of two new permanent members to the UN Security Council (UNSC). According to a senior official in the George W Bush administration, of the two new members Washington will back, one will be Japan and the other will be from the developing world - either Brazil or India, with the prospects of India considerably higher, given the criterion of selection.

Nicholas Burns, under secretary of state for political affairs, in making the announcement, also said that when the US introduced its proposal next week at the United Nations, it would oppose offering veto power to any new permanent members.

If the US does back India, it will be the first time, in the face of Pakistan's resistance against any such move. The situation further muddies the water for China, which has backed India in the past but is dead set against Japan entering the UNSC. Of the nations bidding for permanent membership on the council - Germany, Japan, India and Brazil - the US has endorsed Japan, emphasizing that the country gives more money to the world body than current members Britain, France, Russia and China put together. The US opposes Germany. Its refusal to back Berlin's bid is a rebuff to a major European ally.

Experts in India say the criteria for expansion the US is likely to choose - population, contributions to the UN, peacekeeping operations, democratic credentials and economic status - will favor India. New Delhi will probe the issue further when Burns arrives here next week. He will likely further elucidate US views when he meets Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran. Burns will be in New Delhi to set the ground for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to Washington next month, which will take a new dimension should the US announce its support for India.

It may be recalled that Germany, Japan, India and Brazil (referred to as the G-4 nations) recently offered a formula in their bid to become permanent members of the UNSC. They proposed forgoing the veto power bestowed on the current five permanent members for at least 15 years. A draft re-asserts the earlier G-4 position, calling for the inclusion of six permanent members and four non-permanent members to the UNSC's existing strength, with the added provision that veto powers will not be exercised for 15 years.

However, even such a truncated offer did not find backers, given the geostrategic politics at play. In a conference call, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told foreign ministers from the permanent members that the US wanted to postpone this month's vote, possibly until after the UN summit scheduled for September. Rice also said the US needed more time to sort out the consequences of a larger Security Council for the global balance of power.

Beijing dismissed the new plan as "immature", stressing that "a big divergence still exists on UNSC reforms." The rival formation, called "Uniting for Consensus" that is led by Italy, Pakistan and Mexico, will not give in easily.

To further complicate matters, Russia sided with China and wants to maintain the status quo, fearing a reduction of its power. France broke with the rest of the permanent members, putting its weight behind Germany by co-sponsoring the G-4 resolution. Britain supports the resolution but has not decided whether to sponsor it.

(SNIP)

With the latest US pronouncements, the issue of UN reforms has again taken center stage. There are reasons for the US to support India, one of them being the push and shove that has marked recent efforts by China and the US to gain India's favor. The US sees India as a future global power in the region that can countervail the growing influence of China, which in turn does not want the US to exercise too much hold over India. While the US has usually pitched Pakistan against India in the past, China is too formidable a nation for Pakistan to challenge in any way. The US has also never been comfortable with the military exchanges that Pakistan and China share.

Politics, of course, spill over to business, with both the US and China eyeing India as a huge untapped market for manufactured goods and arms contracts (especially the US), as well as a back-end information-technology powerhouse.

Curiously, the US mind change came when the country warned India on Thursday that it would be making a mistake if it went ahead with a gas pipeline project with Iran and that the US would continue to discourage such projects (see US plays spoiler in pipeline accord June 17). According to Stephen G Rademaker, assistant secretary of state for arms control, Iran could use the money from the project for illegitimate purposes.

(MORE)

5//The Independent, UK 19 June 2005
http://news.independent.co.uk/europe/story.jsp?story=648003

BLAIR GAMBLES ON APPEAL TO ‘PEOPLE’S EUROPE’
By Andy McSmith, Political Editor, and Stephen Castle in Brussels

Unrepentant over the collapse of Friday's EU summit, Tony Blair will embark on a campaign this week to appeal to European opinion over the heads of Jacques Chirac, Gerhard Schröder and other leaders of "old Europe."

The Prime Minister flew home yesterday with the recriminations of half of Europe ringing in his ears. Most other European leaders blamed the failure of the summit on his refusal to make concessions on Britain's EU budget rebate unless they were linked to reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy.

But Mr Blair believes that the European public supports his ideas for modernising the EU, an argument he intends to pursue during Britain's six-month presidency, which begins next week.

The Luxembourg Prime Minister, Jean-Claude Juncker, who chaired the talks as the current holder of the presidency, was so angry when the summit ended, according to British officials, that his country is threatening to refuse to co-operate when it hands over to Britain. Mr Juncker warned that the EU is now "in deep crisis."

Mr Blair's crusade will begin with a speech to the European Parliament in Brussels on Thursday, when he will tell European MPs not to confuse his stance with that taken by Margaret Thatcher.

Mr Blair is expected to insist that he believes in a strong "social model" for Europe, rather than an unfettered free market. He will claim that this is proved by his record as the Prime Minister who signed the UK up to the social chapter of the Maastricht treaty, and oversaw the introduction of a national minimum wage.

British officials admitted yesterday that Mr Blair is facing a bad start to his six months at the head of the EU, with other European leaders holding him responsible for what the German Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, described yesterday as "one of the worst political crises Europe has ever seen." But Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, insisted that the crisis could be turned into an opportunity to rethink the EU's future.

"If people are caught up for 36 hours in a soulless building in Brussels, tempers are going to fray,'" Mr Straw told BBC Radio 4's Today programme. "It is in many ways a sad day for Europe. But out of this ... there is an opportunity to reconnect. This will be seen as something of a turning point for the European Union. Sometimes to secure a turn in democracies, there has to be a shock."

Mr Straw added: "It is essentially a division between whether you want a European Union that is able to cope with the future or a European Union that is trapped in the past."

The EU Trade Commissioner, Peter Mandelson, also said some good could come out of the crisis. "There will be many of us working hard to make sure that there's a proper debate and that Europe and its budget emerges, not unscathed, but in a better, improved form," he said.

John Redwood, the Tory deregulation spokesman, said Mr Blair could have averted the crisis by opening up the issue of waste and fraud in the EU bureaucracy, which exists on a big enough scale to be responsible for the shortfall in the budget. "He seems to be hyping up the disagreement instead of finding a way round it," Mr Redwood said.

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