June 13, 2005

World Media Watch

by Gloria R. Lalumia

BuzzFlash Note: WMW provides BuzzFlash readers foreign views and perspectives that are not usually available from the media here in the U.S. The presentation of these articles from these international publications is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

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WORLD MEDIA WATCH FOR JUNE 13, 2005

1//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong--US LOOMS LARGE IN IRAN’S ELECTIONS (As the clock winds down in the final week of the short campaign for presidential elections on June 17, the question of US-Iran relations appears to have become a defining, and perhaps to some extent determining, element of Iran's elections. While there is no official poll to indicate the front runners, one can safely assume that the liberal candidate Mostafa Moin and the centrist Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani are ahead of the pack - of eight candidates sanctioned following screening by the Guardians Council of a crowded field of more than 1,000. Both these candidates have prioritized the issue of future relations with the US, hoping to galvanize young voters interested in the normalization of relations with the Western superpower nowadays considered Iran's "new neighbor" in control of Iraq and Afghanistan. … Any qualitative improvement of US-Iran relations depends to some extent on the security dialogue between the two sides, and here the troubled Iran-Europe talks may prove to be an effective catalyst. Per the latest round of talks in Geneva, the European Three (EU-3 - Germany, Britain and France) have promised to present Iran with a concrete proposal before the summer is over. … Unfortunately, the US Congress is busy conducting a more one-dimensional, hostile foreign policy toward Iran by entertaining a new bill that in the name of establishing a democratic system in Iran violates Iran's national sovereignty. If enacted, this bill will tie the hands of the George W Bush administration on Iran, precluding meaningful progress in US-Iran diplomacy.)

2//The Turkish Daily News, Turkey--TURKEY, US FINE TUNE TIES (After two years of problematic relations, Ankara and Washington have agreed to leave contentious issues behind and proceed with a common strategic vision. They will respect their "strategic partnership" and "nurture democracy in the backyard" to fight international terrorism and establish "sustainable stability." The American-Turkish Council (ATC) annual conference in Washington was rather different this year as it provided an opportunity for top civilian and military leaders from Turkey and the United States to fine-tune relations. There was some tension in ties because a March 1, 2003, parliamentary veto did not allow the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) to deliver on a pledge to let the United States open a second front through Turkey in the Iraq War. The ATC gathering, organized jointly with the Turkish-U.S. Business Council (TUSBC), became a platform for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's number two military man Deputy Chief of General Staff Gen. Ilker Basbug and other top officials to engage in some sort of public diplomacy. They soon found out the United States was more than ready to overcome the two-year chill -- if not a crisis of confidence -- in ties. … The first strong American message regarding this change for the better came during the ATC speech of Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick, who clearly told Turks that Ankara should "look beyond accession to the European Union and adopt a more global perspective.” … “So my hope is that as Turkey looks to its own future, the connections that it has with Europe, which are very important, need to be complemented by a global perspective. That's where the partnership with the United States becomes particularly valuable.” He continued by noting that the United States is “still a unique country in terms of its global reach … and the insights and relationships one builds, I hope, can be relevant to our partners as well.”)

3//The Independent, UK--NUCLEAR WASTE: THE 1,000-YEAR FUDGE (Secret plans to postpone solving Britain's nuclear waste crisis for up to 1,000 years are being drawn up by the nuclear industry, The Independent on Sunday can reveal. The government-owned British Nuclear Fuels is developing a scheme for indefinitely storing the intensely dangerous material in giant "millennium domes" around Britain, leaving it for generations far into the future to work out what to do with it. The scheme - to be floated at a closed meeting of nuclear experts and local authority officials in London this week - runs counter to conventional wisdom. Most experts insist that the safest way of dealing with highly radioactive wastes is to bury them at least 900 feet underground. Storing them increases the chances that they will leak out, leading to health risks and making them vulnerable to terrorists. … "They look exactly like the Millennium Dome," said one top official who has seen the plans. "And they seem just as bad an idea." … France, Finland, Sweden, Switzerland and Belgium are all following the traditional strategy by investigating sites for deep burial. British Nuclear Fuels said that the scheme was the result of "looking at new, innovative ways of doing things" as part of drawing up "a broad range of options.")

4//Gulf News Online, United Arab Emirates--OPINION: INDONESIA MAY LOSE OPEC MEMBERSHIP (Indonesia, one of the founding members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries [OPEC], has been importing oil since 2003 and is expected to become a net importer very soon. This could threaten its membership in OPEC, as only countries that export more than they import are eligible for membership in the organisation. Nothing reflects Jakarta's anxiousness better than its decision last month to establish a panel to examine a possible exit from the grouping. Indonesia's oil problem is so serious that, since 2002, it has not even been able to fully meet its output quota currently at 1.425 million barrels a day from OPEC. … Thus, the steady decline in production and consequently in export from 1.6 million bpd in 1995 to 1.3 million bpd in 2001, 1.2 million bpd in 2003, and 1 million bpd this year is not due to lack of oil. It is rather due to the following key factors: First, domestic demand for oil has been increasing by 7 per cent every year since the 1980s, despite several price increases. If this continues without new exploration, and annual production remains at around 1 million bpd, Indonesia's reserves will not last more than 15 years.)

5//The Philippine Daily Inquirer, Philippines--ARROYO CALLS FOR END TO ‘DIRTY POLITICS’ (… In an Independence Day speech before a lean crowd of supporters at the Luneta, embattled President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo also appealed to the nation: "In this great national day, I ask you, my countrymen, to help me be a good President." The celebration of the 107th anniversary of the country's independence from colonial rule occurred amid deep divisions among Filipinos and calls from Ms Arroyo's critics for her to resign. The calls were spurred by testimony at the Senate by jueteng informers who implicated the President's husband, their elder son and a brother-in-law in the taking of bribes from illegal gambling, and the surfacing of a controversial audio tape supposedly suggesting Ms Arroyo's involvement in an alleged attempt to rig last year's elections. … After a week of rumors about a plot to oust Ms Arroyo from office, police and military officials yesterday said the threat to the government was over. Both commands of the Philippine National Police and the Armed Forces indicated they would be lifting their orders for troops to go on full or red alert.)

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1//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong Jun 11, 2005
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GF11Ak04.html

US LOOMS LARGE IN IRAN’S ELECTIONS
By Kaveh Afrasiabi

BERLIN - As the clock winds down in the final week of the short campaign for presidential elections on June 17, the question of US-Iran relations appears to have become a defining, and perhaps to some extent determining, element of Iran's elections.

While there is no official poll to indicate the front runners, one can safely assume that the liberal candidate Mostafa Moin and the centrist Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani are ahead of the pack - of eight candidates sanctioned following screening by the Guardians Council of a crowded field of more than 1,000. Both these candidates have prioritized the issue of future relations with the US, hoping to galvanize young voters interested in the normalization of relations with the Western superpower nowadays considered Iran's "new neighbor" in control of Iraq and Afghanistan.

In his first press interview after formally announcing his candidacy, Rafsanjani, a former president and current head of the Expediency Council, offered an olive branch toward the US and stated his desire to improve the climate between the two countries. He has said that if the US released Iran's frozen assets in the US, he would be ready for dialogue. Moin, on the other, hand has been even more blunt in stating his desire to end the diplomatic estrangement of the past quarter of century, irrespective of the stern opposition by the hardline candidates still beating the drum of anti-Americanism for their mass of constituency.

But the hardline, often referred to as the right wing, candidates are not united on this particular issue. With their disunity serving as a major handicap diminishing their individual chances, this faction suffers from a degree of disjunction between a militant anti-Americanism and the system-maintenance prerogative of a modus vivendi with the US power casting a large shadow on Iran's national security. One of those candidates, Ali Larijani, the former head of the state-owned, conservative-controlled Radio and Television Organization, is considered a pragmatic realist who favors dialogue with the US.

No matter what the outcome of the elections - and Rafsanjani may well turn out the winner as expected by most Iran watchers - the mere fact that the old taboo has been broken and the candidates freely ignore the official line of not talking about the US is welcome news portending the breaking of significant ice in the tumultuous US-Iran relations since 1979.

Later this month, US and Iranian diplomats will sit around the same table in Luxembourg discussing Iraq's reconstruction. Already, a quid pro quo for Iran's extension of its freeze on nuclear fuel activities, Washington has dropped its opposition to Iran's accession to the World Trade Organization. And in various policy circles in the US, one can discern a greater willingness than in the past to give credit to Iran for the strides it has taken in Afghanistan, Iraq, against narcotics traffic, etc.

Of course, this does not mean that everything is rosy. The US is officially still intent on taking Iran to the United Nations Security Council for sanctions if Iran resumes its nuclear programs, and occasionally accuses Iran of harboring al-Qaeda terrorists, overlooking, however, that Iran has turned over many terrorists who have crossed into the country, and that scores of other terrorists have been arrested. Iran says it has arrested more than 5,000 terrorists in the past three years and has deported them to their home countries. Using them as bargaining chips with Washington, Iran's intention is less engaging in terrorism and more serving its own geostrategic interests in a region dominated by the US.

Any qualitative improvement of US-Iran relations depends to some extent on the security dialogue between the two sides, and here the troubled Iran-Europe talks may prove to be an effective catalyst. Per the latest round of talks in Geneva, the European Three (EU-3 - Germany, Britain and France) have promised to present Iran with a concrete proposal before the summer is over.

(SNIP)

One of the "working committees" in the talks between Iran and the EU-3 centers on security cooperation and, in light of Iran's quest for a guarantee of non-intervention by the US, it could culminate in concrete proposals for, say, a meaningful Iran-North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dialogue and, perhaps, a NATO-Iran council modelled after the NATO-Russia council. Given Iran's participation in the past couple of summits of NATO, NATO's recent eastward expansion, and Iran's concern for the future of Persian Gulf security, there is no reason to exclude this possibility.

Simultaneously, a similar Iran-OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) can be initiated, with a large purview encompassing cooperative security in both the Persian Gulf, as well as the Caspian Sea region, notwithstanding Iran's participation in recent OSCE conferences on Caspian environmental security.

Unfortunately, the US Congress is busy conducting a more one-dimensional, hostile foreign policy toward Iran by entertaining a new bill that in the name of establishing a democratic system in Iran violates Iran's national sovereignty. If enacted, this bill will tie the hands of the George W Bush administration on Iran, precluding meaningful progress in US-Iran diplomacy.

(MORE)

2//The Turkish Daily News, Turkey Sunday, June 12, 2005
http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=15536

TURKEY, US FINE TUNE TIES
'Nurturing democracy in the backyard' becomes the backbone of new 'strategic common vision'

Yusuf Kalni

WASHINGTON - Turkish Daily News - After two years of problematic relations, Ankara and Washington have agreed to leave contentious issues behind and proceed with a common strategic vision. They will respect their "strategic partnership" and "nurture democracy in the backyard" to fight international terrorism and establish "sustainable stability."

The American-Turkish Council (ATC) annual conference in Washington was rather different this year as it provided an opportunity for top civilian and military leaders from Turkey and the United States to fine-tune relations. There was some tension in ties because a March 1, 2003, parliamentary veto did not allow the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) to deliver on a pledge to let the United States open a second front through Turkey in the Iraq War.

The ATC gathering, organized jointly with the Turkish-U.S. Business Council (TUSBC), became a platform for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's number two military man Deputy Chief of General Staff Gen. Ilker Basbug and other top officials to engage in some sort of public diplomacy. They soon found out the United States was more than ready to overcome the two-year chill -- if not a crisis of confidence -- in ties.

(SNIP)

The framework of the new strategic vision, as described by Erdogan after his meeting in the Oval Office with President George W. Bush, is to jointly contribute to the spreading and consolidation of "freedom, democracy, rule of law, fight against terrorism, security and human rights" in a wide geography stretching from the Urals to North Africa, the so-called broader Middle East and North Africa project area.

The two countries will now "fill in" the instructions they receive from their political leadership and chart the action plans to be followed in the tough task of nurturing democracy in what is Turkey's backyard but has also become America's backyard since the Iraq War.

The first strong American message regarding this change for the better came during the ATC speech of Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick, who clearly told Turks that Ankara should "look beyond accession to the European Union and adopt a more global perspective.”

(SNIP)

He cited the recently completed Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline as an example of the kind of role Turkey might play, adding that it “could be a major service provider in the region.”

Zoellick listed three sets of shared interests on which Turkey and the United States could cooperate: democratization in the broader Middle East, reconstruction in Iraq, and developments in the “broader Eurasian region.”

“So my hope is that as Turkey looks to its own future, the connections that it has with Europe, which are very important, need to be complemented by a global perspective. That's where the partnership with the United States becomes particularly valuable.” He continued by noting that the United States is “still a unique country in terms of its global reach … and the insights and relationships one builds, I hope, can be relevant to our partners as well.” Naturally, there was no word from Zoellick regarding Turkey's demand for U.S. action on the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) presence in northern Iraq, although other American officials explained in private that the real concern of Washington is, "Don't pull us into the PKK fight."

Countering those worries, Gen. Basbug told the Americans that although Turkey very much wanted the PKK to be totally eradicated, there were several combative and non-combative measures the United States could help with:

- Preventing political and ideological support to the PKK- Arresting its leaders and members- Prevention of recruiting by the gang- Eliminating their shelters- Elimination of command/control and communication structures. After a week of discussions between Abdullah Gul and Condoleezza Rice, and between Bush and Erdogan, the two nations now understand each other better on the PKK issue.

Basbug also made clear that Turkey shared identical positions with the United States regarding Iran and Syria, but underlined that diplomacy ought to be preferred to other means. ''Iran has a theocratic regime. Of course, each country is free to choose its own regime. Besides the United States and other countries, Turkey has also been monitoring the nuclear activities of Iran. Turkey's Middle East policy envisages a region without nuclear weapons. We believe that the problem should be resolved peacefully. Turkey supports the initiatives of Britain, Germany and France to this end. Iran, with its nuclear ambitions, constitutes an important threat,'' Basbug said.

''Democratization in the Caucasus depends on Turkish-United States cooperation,'' he stressed, recalling the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline project was developed with the support of the United States. Gen. Basbug said the pipeline would create great political and economic opportunities.

(MORE)

3//The Independent, UK 12 June 2005
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/environment...

NUCLEAR WASTE: THE 1,000-YEAR FUDGE
By Geoffrey Lean, Environment Editor

Secret plans to postpone solving Britain's nuclear waste crisis for up to 1,000 years are being drawn up by the nuclear industry, The Independent on Sunday can reveal.

The government-owned British Nuclear Fuels is developing a scheme for indefinitely storing the intensely dangerous material in giant "millennium domes" around Britain, leaving it for generations far into the future to work out what to do with it.

The scheme - to be floated at a closed meeting of nuclear experts and local authority officials in London this week - runs counter to conventional wisdom. Most experts insist that the safest way of dealing with highly radioactive wastes is to bury them at least 900 feet underground. Storing them increases the chances that they will leak out, leading to health risks and making them vulnerable to terrorists.

But the idea is gaining support in Whitehall, following 30 years of failure to find a disposal site in Britain. Ministers insist that plans for dealing with the waste must be agreed before any more nuclear power stations are built.

Last week, Nirex, Britain's independent nuclear waste agency, published a shortlist of 12 locations drawn up for the last attempt to solve the problem, which ended in failure in 1997 when the then Secretary of State for the Environment, John Gummer, rejected the favoured site near the Sellafield nuclear complex. Ministers are due to launch a new search next year.

The BNFL scheme is likely to prove even more controversial. It envisages building several concrete domes in different regions of the country for so-called "interim long-term storage" of the wastes. The domes would be designed to last up to 1,000 years and would be buried just under the surface of the ground under a layer of rubble or earth. They could be built almost anywhere, though would most likely be sited at existing nuclear power plants.

"They look exactly like the Millennium Dome," said one top official who has seen the plans. "And they seem just as bad an idea."

Proponents of storing waste say that we do not yet know enough about how to dispose of it safely deep in the ground, and that future generations are likely to be able to do it better.

France, Finland, Sweden, Switzerland and Belgium are all following the traditional strategy by investigating sites for deep burial.

British Nuclear Fuels said that the scheme was the result of "looking at new, innovative ways of doing things" as part of drawing up "a broad range of options".

Sellafield leak casts doubt on nuclear expansion, says minister
The leak of tens of thousands of litres of spent fuel at Sellafield is preventing ministers from making the case for new nuclear power stations, Alan Johnson has told The Independent on Sunday.

The new Trade Secretary says the official investigation into the incident, in which nuclear liquid gushed unnoticed from a broken pipe for nine months, will be "very important" in deciding whether to press ahead with plans for up to 20 new plants.

In an interview with this newspaper, Mr Johnson gave a clear signal that he is increasingly reluctant to make the case for nuclear power, preferring instead to stress the potential of renewable energy sources.

(MORE)

4//Gulf News Online, United Arab Emirates Published: 12/6/2005, 07:25 (UAE)
http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/OpinionNF.asp?ArticleID=168810

OPINION: INDONESIA MAY LOSE OPEC MEMBERSHIP
By Dr. Abdullah Al Madani, Special to Gulf News

Indonesia, one of the founding members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), has been importing oil since 2003 and is expected to become a net importer very soon.
This could threaten its membership in OPEC, as only countries that export more than they import are eligible for membership in the organisation.

Nothing reflects Jakarta's anxiousness better than its decision last month to establish a panel to examine a possible exit from the grouping.

Indonesia's oil problem is so serious that, since 2002, it has not even been able to fully meet its output quota currently at 1.425 million barrels a day from OPEC.

It is true that oil and gas last year accounted for 26 per cent of the country's total export revenue or nearly $ 11.8 billion (Dh44 billion), but this was mainly because of soaring global oil prices.
Therefore, lower output, combined with possible lower prices, would seriously affect government revenue and consequently create an additional deficit.

(SNIP)

According to international energy sources, Indonesia currently has proven oil reserves equal to 5.14 billion barrels with probable reserves of an additional 5 billion barrels, particularly beneath the surface of territorial waters.

Thus, the steady decline in production and consequently in export from 1.6 million bpd in 1995 to 1.3 million bpd in 2001, 1.2 million bpd in 2003, and 1 million bpd this year is not due to lack of oil. It is rather due to the following key factors:

First, domestic demand for oil has been increasing by 7 per cent every year since the 1980s, despite several price increases.

If this continues without new exploration, and annual production remains at around 1 million bpd, Indonesia's reserves will not last more than 15 years.

This means that Indonesia, which currently imports some half a million bpd of fuel from Saudi Arabia to meet domestic demand, will need to import 2 million bpd by 2019.

Second, while oil consumption increases, output is declining due to the natural fall off of the ageing oilfields. Four-fifths of the country's production is pumped from depleting resources that are decades old.

What worsens the situation is the absence of clear, decisive government strategies to develop these ageing fields or to invest in new ones due to change of administrations and contradictory regulations.

Spending on exploration and development last year, for example, amounted to less than $500 million (Dh1.835 billion), the lowest since 1981.

Boosting production
Third, incentives offered by the government to boost production in old fields or to attract foreign investors have been little or poor.

In addition, the government represented by Pertamina, has frightened new investors by holding a tough position in disputes with several operating companies.

The best example is the ongoing dispute with ExxonMobil over profit sharing, period of concession and development of the country's biggest known untapped oil deposits, the Cepu field in Central Java.

This, despite the fact that the field holds an estimated 2 billion barrels of oil and 11 trillion cubic of gas and could produce 180,000 bpd, something that would boost Indonesia's current oil output by 18 per cent.

Fourth, foreign oil companies seem not to be enthusiastic enough to win concessions or invest in Indonesia. One of the reasons is that new exploration blocks are small or medium-sized and located in remote regions with difficult terrain.

This means the cost of exploration will be substantially higher and profit will be less. Other reasons include corruption and the continuing threat of insurrection and terrorism.

It is worth recalling that ExxonMobil's employees have been repeatedly attacked by militants belonging to the separatist Free Aceh Movement and its operations have been occasionally interrupted by military campaigns.

One may also add the uncertainty of the investor's profits and interests in the light of the unclear division of authority among the central and provincial administrations.

Some analysts say that Indonesia's status in OPEC is not under threat, arguing that domestic consumption of oil will moderate over the next five years as a result of continuing higher fuel prices and Jakarta's efforts to encourage the use of alternative energy such as gas and coal.

They add that there is no time limit defining how long the net importer status may prevail before the country is no longer eligible to be an OPEC member.

Moreover, in OPEC's history, there has not been a precedent in which a member has been dismissed. Other analysts, however, maintain that Indonesia may soon lose its membership or at best become an observer

5//The Philippine Daily Inquirer, Philippines First posted 11:54pm (Mla time) June 12, 2005
http://news.inq7.net/nation/index.php?index...

ARROYO CALLS FOR END TO ‘DIRTY POLITICS’
No mention of scandals in Freedom Day speech

By Christine O. Avendaño, Inquirer News Service

She called for an end to "dirty politics" but avoided mention of "The Tape." She pledged to wipe out corruption spawned by "jueteng" within a year's time but made no reference to relatives allegedly mired in it.

In an Independence Day speech before a lean crowd of supporters at the Luneta, embattled President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo also appealed to the nation: "In this great national day, I ask you, my countrymen, to help me be a good President."

The celebration of the 107th anniversary of the country's independence from colonial rule occurred amid deep divisions among Filipinos and calls from Ms Arroyo's critics for her to resign.

The calls were spurred by testimony at the Senate by jueteng informers who implicated the President's husband, their elder son and a brother-in-law in the taking of bribes from illegal gambling, and the surfacing of a controversial audio tape supposedly suggesting Ms Arroyo's involvement in an alleged attempt to rig last year's elections.

Ms Arroyo has ordered an investigation of her relatives but has made no direct public comment on the tape controversy.

Her staunch ally and Senate President Franklin Drilon had urged Ms Arroyo to use Independence Day to make a significant statement about her relatives' alleged involvement in the illegal numbers game.

But no statement came.

(SNIP)

The crowd -- estimated by police at 10,000 but by some journalists as barely enough to fill a church the size of Sto. Domingo in Quezon City twice over -- applauded her eight times.

After a week of rumors about a plot to oust Ms Arroyo from office, police and military officials yesterday said the threat to the government was over.

Both commands of the Philippine National Police and the Armed Forces indicated they would be lifting their orders for troops to go on full or red alert.

There had been concerns that Ms Arroyo's opponents would stage massive protests but only a few dozen protesters turned up at the Chino Roces Bridge near the Presidential Palace. A few hundred attended a prayer rally on EDSA (Epifanio delos Santos Avenue).

Threat over?

"The major source of threat has been overcome," said PNP Director Vidal Querol, head of the National Capital Region Police Office.

"There are those who want to take advantage of the situation. But it has died down. We'll just finish the day and wait for the traditional protests" from militant groups, he said.

The Armed Forces national capital command said it was ready to lift its red alert.

"There's nothing going on," said command spokesperson Captain Ramon Zagala. "It's peaceful."

The President's men appeared to be the ones in the most celebratory mood.

(MORE)