June 6, 2005

World Media Watch

by Gloria R. Lalumia

BuzzFlash Note: WMW provides BuzzFlash readers foreign views and perspectives that are not usually available from the media here in the U.S. The presentation of these articles from these international publications is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

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WORLD MEDIA WATCH FOR JUNE 6, 2005

1//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong--THE TIES THAT BIND CHINA, RUSSIA AND IRAN (The military implementation of the George W Bush administration's unilateralist foreign policy is creating monumental changes in the world's geostrategic alliances. The most significant of these changes is the formation of a new triangle comprised of China, Iran and Russia. Growing ties between Moscow and Beijing in the past 18 months is an important geopolitical event that has gone practically unnoticed. China's premier, Wen Jiabao, visited Russia in September 2004. In October 2004, President Vladimir Putin visited China. During the October meeting, both China and Russia declared that Sino-Russian relations had reached "unparalleled heights". In addition to settling long-standing border issues, Moscow and Beijing agreed to hold joint military exercises in 2005. This marks the first large-scale military exercises between Russia and China since 1958.)

2//The Telegraph, UK--BLAIR ‘COULD STAY IN POWER TO SORT OUT EU CRISIS’ (Tony Blair could carry on as Prime Minister for another two to three years now that plans for a Europe referendum have been dropped, his old ally Peter Mandelson has claimed. Mr Mandelson, now Britain's EU commissioner, said that the crisis facing the EU following the rejection of the new constitution by French and Dutch voters, would provide Mr Blair with a fresh challenge. It had been widely expected that Mr Blair would stand down after Britain's referendum on the constitutional treaty, due to take place early next year, to make way for Gordon Brown, the Chancellor. … . His comments are likely to infuriate his long-time rival, Mr Brown. Although Mr Blair has said that he intends to serve a full third term, most MPs expect him to stand down long before then.)

RELATED: BLAIR HOPES TO EMULATE THATCHER WITH 10 YEARS AS PRIME MINISTER

3//The Toronto Star, Canada--TOO MUCH ANGER TO SUCCEED (Richard Nixon somehow made it to the top of the greasy pole. It's helpful to take that view of history in trying to imagine Stephen Harper as the man who can lead a united right to the New Jerusalem. As dysfunctional in his own way as the dethroned Stockwell Day, Harper has twice squandered the chance effortlessly gained by the sponsorship scandal to form a government. He is, Tory insiders began saying last week, girding for a third try this fall, hoping the potency of the Grewal tapes matches that of the Gomery revelations. It, too, will likely fail. In a nation that favours public figures who project a sunny optimism, Harper traffics more heavily in bile than any major political party leader since John Diefenbaker.)

4//The Khaleej Times, United Arab Emirates--IRAN SETS NEW CONDITIONS ON MAINTAINING NUCLEAR FREEZE (A senior Iranian official said on Sunday that Teheran has only conditionally agreed to EU demands it maintain a suspension of sensitive nuclear activities until the end of July, the official news agency IRNA reported. “Iran has conditionally agreed to the EU offer, and Europe has until the end of July to provide a complete proposal with details,” Supreme National Security Council official Ali Agha Mohammadi was quoted as saying. … . Iran’s latest demand is for that timetable to be brought forward -- something that may prove a headache for Eurocrats planning their summer holidays. Teheran has continued to complain the Europeans have been seeking to drag out the talks, and therefore Iran’s nuclear suspension.)

5//The Moscow Times, Russia--IMF SLAMS CABINET FOR SPENDING HIKES (The International Monetary Fund on Friday criticized the government's plan to spend oil revenues on welfare, urging it to focus on measures to combat inflation and improve the investment climate. "Russia is significantly speeding up the pace at which it spends its oil revenues," said Poul Thomsen, who led the annual IMF delegation to Moscow. "The preliminary budget discussed with us will entail further relaxation in 2006," he added. "At best, if this policy continues, Russia will miss an opportunity to advance its modernization," he said at a sullen news conference. At worse, it will be forced to undertake painful austerity policies down the road, he said. Thomsen was speaking a day after the government voted to spend an extra 349 billion rubles ($12.3 billion) this year on social services. Of that, 111 billion rubles is to come from the stabilization fund, a pot of windfall oil revenues, which finance minister Alexei Kudrin had earmarked for early debt repayment.)

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1//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong Jun 4, 2005
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/GF04Ad07.html

THE TIES THAT BIND CHINA, RUSSIA AND IRAN

By Jephraim P. Gundzik

The military implementation of the George W Bush administration's unilateralist foreign policy is creating monumental changes in the world's geostrategic alliances. The most significant of these changes is the formation of a new triangle comprised of China, Iran and Russia.

Growing ties between Moscow and Beijing in the past 18 months is an important geopolitical event that has gone practically unnoticed. China's premier, Wen Jiabao, visited Russia in September 2004. In October 2004, President Vladimir Putin visited China. During the October meeting, both China and Russia declared that Sino-Russian relations had reached "unparalleled heights". In addition to settling long-standing border issues, Moscow and Beijing agreed to hold joint military exercises in 2005. This marks the first large-scale military exercises between Russia and China since 1958.

The joint military exercises complement a rapidly growing arms trade between Moscow and Beijing. China is Russia's largest buyer of military equipment. In 2004, China was reported to have signed deals worth more than $2 billion for Russian arms. These included naval ships and submarines, missile systems and aircraft. According to the head of Russia's armed forces, Anatoliy Kvashnin, "our defense industrial complex is working for this country [China], supplying the latest models of arms and military equipment, which the Russian army does not have". Russia's relations with China are not limited to military trade. In the past five years, non-military trade between Russia and China has increased at an average annual rate of nearly 20%. Moscow and Beijing have targeted non-military trade to reach $60 billion by 2010, from $20 billion in 2004. One of the key components of commercial trade is Russian energy exports to China.

In early 2005, Moscow agreed to more than double electricity exports to China, to 800 million kilowatt hours (kWh), by 2006. Officials at Russia's electricity monopoly, Unified Energy Systems, are also courting Chinese investment in the development and renovation of Russia's electricity system. In October 2004, the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and Russia's Gazprom signed a series of agreements intended to study how Russia can best supply natural gas to China. At the same time, Russia signed specific agreements with China on oil exports.

Russia's oil shipments to China are slated to reach 10 million tons in 2005, increasing to 15 million tons in 2006. All of these shipments will be made by rail. However, this agreement was overshadowed by talks concerning the construction of an oil pipeline from Siberia to northern China. Russia has been pondering an oil pipeline to China for nearly 10 years. In 2002, plans for this pipeline received a boost when Moscow pledged to invest $2 billion in an oil pipeline running from the Siberian city of Angarsk to Daqing in northeastern China.

(SNIP)

The new geostrategic alliance

Along with energy trade, investment and economic development, the China-Iran-Russia alliance has cultivated compatible foreign policies. China, Iran and Russia have identical foreign policy positions regarding Taiwan and Chechnya. China and Iran fully support the Putin government's war against the Chechen separatists (Iran's self-described status as an "Islamic republic" notwithstanding). Russia and Iran support Beijing's one-China policy. The recent promulgation of China's anti-secession law, aimed at making Beijing's intolerance of Taiwanese independence explicit, was heartily commended in both Moscow and Tehran.

The most compelling aspect of this alliance is revealed in China's and Russia's support for Iran's much-maligned nuclear energy program. The Putin government has consistently maintained that Russia would not support UN Security Council resolutions that condemn Iran's nuclear energy program or apply economic sanctions against Iran. In February, Putin said he was convinced Iran was not seeking to develop nuclear weapons and announced plans to visit the country, in support of Tehran, just prior to his summit with President Bush.

Beijing has echoed Moscow's opposition to UN action against Iran. After concluding the historic gas and oil deal between China and Iran in October 2004, China's Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing announced that China would not support UN Security Council action against Iran's nuclear energy program. Opposition in Moscow and Beijing to UN action against Iran is significant because both countries hold UN Security Council veto power.

The endorsement of Tehran's nuclear energy program by Moscow and Beijing reveals the primary impetus behind the China-Iran-Russia axis - to counter US unilateralism and global hegemonic intentions. For Beijing and Moscow, this means minimizing US influence in Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East. For the regime in Tehran, keeping the US at bay is a matter of survival.

(SNIP)

To China and Russia, Washington's "democratic reform program" is a thinly disguised method for the US to militarily dispose of unfriendly regimes in order to ensure the country's primacy as the world's sole superpower. The China-Iran-Russia alliance can be considered as Beijing's and Moscow's counterpunch to Washington's global ambitions. From this perspective, Iran is integral to thwarting the Bush administration's foreign policy goals. This is precisely why Beijing and Moscow have strengthened their economic and diplomatic ties with Tehran. It is also why Beijing and Moscow are providing Tehran with increasingly sophisticated weapons.

2//The Telegraph, UK (Filed: 05/06/2005)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;sessionid=PX...

BLAIR ‘COULD STAY IN POWER TO SORT OUT EU CRISIS’

Tony Blair could carry on as Prime Minister for another two to three years now that plans for a Europe referendum have been dropped, his old ally Peter Mandelson has claimed.

Mr Mandelson, now Britain's EU commissioner, said that the crisis facing the EU following the rejection of the new constitution by French and Dutch voters, would provide Mr Blair with a fresh challenge.

It had been widely expected that Mr Blair would stand down after Britain's referendum on the constitutional treaty, due to take place early next year, to make way for Gordon Brown, the Chancellor.

However, in the wake of the French and Dutch No votes, Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, will announce tomorrow that Britain's referendum plans are to be put on indefinite hold.

Mr Mandelson said that Mr Blair could now play a leading role in sorting out the tangle in which the EU was now embroiled.

"I don't think what's happened in Europe this week will have any direct impact whatsoever. If anything, it gives him a fresh calling," he said in an interview to be broadcast today on ITV1's Jonathan Dimbleby programme.

"What he's got to do is help other European member states and heads of government come to terms with what's happened, understand, realise how Europe's got to move to a different place if it's going to overcome that malaise about Europe that exists amongst the public.

"I think he can help do that, so I think that he's got a great contribution to make.

"I hope that as part of his legacy when eventually he does step down as Prime Minister towards the end of this parliament, he will be able to look back on the next two to three years and say 'I helped Europe change and mend it's direction, re-build public confidence and trust in the European project in a way that seems relevant to us and our daily lives' and that's what I'd like to see him do."

His comments are likely to infuriate his long-time rival, Mr Brown. Although Mr Blair has said that he intends to serve a full third term, most MPs expect him to stand down long before then.

(MORE)

RELATED: BLAIR HOPES TO EMULATE THATCHER WITH 10 YEARS AS PRIME MINISTER
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/story.jsp?story=644575

Tony Blair wants to remain in office for 10 years following the decision to be announced today to shelve the UK referendum on the European constitution.

(MORE)

3//The Toronto Star, Canada Jun. 5, 2005. 08:28 AM
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=...

TOO MUCH ANGER TO SUCCEED

After 23 years in politics, Stephen Harper still has a penchant for marginalizing moderates within his Conservative caucus, ridiculing the patriotism of Liberal voters and working out his anger issues in public

David Olive

Look at that face, that hateful face.

-Sam Rayburn, Democratic speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, watching a televised address by Richard Nixon

Richard Nixon somehow made it to the top of the greasy pole. It's helpful to take that view of history in trying to imagine Stephen Harper as the man who can lead a united right to the New Jerusalem.

As dysfunctional in his own way as the dethroned Stockwell Day, Harper has twice squandered the chance effortlessly gained by the sponsorship scandal to form a government. He is, Tory insiders began saying last week, girding for a third try this fall, hoping the potency of the Grewal tapes matches that of the Gomery revelations.

It, too, will likely fail.

In a nation that favours public figures who project a sunny optimism, Harper traffics more heavily in bile than any major political party leader since John Diefenbaker.

Harper regards Liberals of every description as "corrupt," and their precarious government, in all its grand and sundry aspects, "morally reprehensible." Those who fail to align with Harper's worldview he labels monsters, harlots and underworld figures.

(SNIP)

How much more dignified it would be for a leader of the Official Opposition to let lessers handle the scut work of character assassination — and there's no shortage of volunteers. Let Tory MP Jason Kenney accuse Martin of perjuring himself at the Gomery inquiry, for instance, and NDP backbencher Pat Martin describe the Liberals, in Commons debate last month, as "institutionally psychopathic."

But Harper insists on working out his anger issues in public, whether it's kicking chairs backstage at Tory events or shoving photographers out of camera range. Or labelling NDP Leader Jack Layton a slut for backing a slightly amended budget that increases spending by less than 1 per cent.

As they say, the fish rots from the head. Within a few days, John Reynolds, Tory campaign manager and prominent B.C. MP, was saying all Liberals "are whores. I don't like to call them that, because there are probably some whores who are nice people."

In the last election Harper let stand a Tory press release that called Paul Martin a supporter of child pornography.

No surprise, then, that Harper has not rebuked Saskatoon Tory MP Maurice Vellacott's description of turncoat Belinda Stronach. ("Some people prostitute themselves for different costs or different prices. She sold out for a cabinet position.")

Harper is not in tune with his caucus, having marginalized moderates like Stronach and Peter MacKay, who went public with his own misgivings about an early election the same day, May 4, as his then-girlfriend did. Not one but three erstwhile contenders for the Alliance or Conservative leadership — Keith Martin, Scott Brison and Stronach — have been driven into the Grit fold.

"Join your own team, Stephen!" exhorts full-time Tory apologist Don Martin.

But after 23 years in politics, Harper is not a work in progress.

Harper still is in thrall to the armchair ideologues at the University of Calgary with whom he first fell in as a student there, a group currently headed by Tory chief strategist Tom Flanagan.

(SNIP)

Accordingly, the latest polls find Tory support at 27 per cent nationally, below the party's 29.6 per cent showing in the last election — itself the Tories' worst performance since R.B. Bennett's drubbing in the Depression year of 1935.

Alarmed by the positive poll readings Martin garnered recently from his encounters with pre-voting-age Canadians who appear to enjoy the Prime Minister's company, Harper's handlers arranged a photo-op of their own at a Wallaceburg, Ont., rehab centre for children.

But the Tory leader was miscast for the assignment. He watched silently, not knowing what to say to these kids. Until, that is, one of the finger-painting toddlers leaned toward his tailored suit.

"Don't touch me," Harper said.

Okay. So what are you doing here?

4//The Khaleej Times, United Arab Emirates 5 June 2005
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?...

IRAN SETS NEW CONDITIONS ON MAINTAINING NUCLEAR FREEZE

TEHERAN (AFP) - A senior Iranian official said on Sunday that Teheran has only conditionally agreed to EU demands it maintain a suspension of sensitive nuclear activities until the end of July, the official news agency IRNA reported.

“Iran has conditionally agreed to the EU offer, and Europe has until the end of July to provide a complete proposal with details,” Supreme National Security Council official Ali Agha Mohammadi was quoted as saying.

He said the conditions were that three joint working groups and a steering committee meet before the end of July and “that there is an exchange between the European foreign ministers and the secretary of Supreme National Security Council (Hassan Rowhani)”.

These demands, he said, were aimed at ensuring that any European proposal is in line with the “agreed aims” of a nuclear suspension agreement signed in Paris between Iran and Britain, France and Germany last November.

(SNIP)

Disagreement over enrichment, which the European trio wants Iran to definitively abandon in return for trade, technology and security incentives almost scuttled the EU-Iran talks that began in December.

But Iran and the European trio agreed at a ministerial-level meeting in Geneva last month to resume talks in August, after Iran’s presidential election June 17 and after the EU comes up in July with concrete proposals on cooperation with Iran over its nuclear programme.

Iran’s latest demand is for that timetable to be brought forward -- something that may prove a headache for Eurocrats planning their summer holidays.

Teheran has continued to complain the Europeans have been seeking to drag out the talks, and therefore Iran’s nuclear suspension.

5//The Moscow Times, Russia Monday, June 6, 2005. Issue 3181. Page 7.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2005/06/06/041.html

IMF SLAMS CABINET FOR SPENDING HIKES

By Alex Fak, Staff Writer

The International Monetary Fund on Friday criticized the government's plan to spend oil revenues on welfare, urging it to focus on measures to combat inflation and improve the investment climate.

"Russia is significantly speeding up the pace at which it spends its oil revenues," said Poul Thomsen, who led the annual IMF delegation to Moscow.

"The preliminary budget discussed with us will entail further relaxation in 2006," he added.

"At best, if this policy continues, Russia will miss an opportunity to advance its modernization," he said at a sullen news conference. At worse, it will be forced to undertake painful austerity policies down the road, he said.

Thomsen was speaking a day after the government voted to spend an extra 349 billion rubles ($12.3 billion) this year on social services. Of that, 111 billion rubles is to come from the stabilization fund, a pot of windfall oil revenues, which finance minister Alexei Kudrin had earmarked for early debt repayment.

Hikes in pensions and bureaucrats' salaries will not help the economy to grow in the long term, said Thomsen.

The IMF suggested the government should only draw upon the stabilization fund to advance structural reforms, in particular reforms that improve the investment climate, such as restructuring state-owned utilities such as Unified Energy Systems.

"Most of the reforms that are a priority for the government are well behind schedule," said Thomsen.

Thomsen's criticism matches the views of several liberal economists within the government -- led by Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin -- who are growing embittered about fiscal incontinence and reform constipation.

Next year, the government will struggle to balance the budget at the price of $31 per barrel, Thomsen said, referring to oil prices.

It balanced its budget last year when oil was trading at just $23 per barrel, he added.

Urals blend oil was trading at just over $50 per barrel Thursday. A surge in spending followed by a fall in prices for crude "would swing the budget balance into deficit," said Vladimir Pantyushin, chief economist at Renaissance Capital.

Social spending presents a dilemma for all societies, said Yevsei Gurvich, head of independent think tank Economic Expert Group.

On the one hand the gap between pensions and wages is growing, Gurvich said. But on the other, boosting spending will lead to inflation and the erosion of the average consumer's purchasing power, he said.

The IMF said that several years of strong economic growth but little investment leave Russia facing a situation where producers cannot keep up with demand, leading to rationing of goods through higher prices.

"Bringing [2005 inflation] down to 10.5 or 11 percent would be an achievement," he said, saying the government's forecast of 8.5 percent would be "challenging."

Consumer prices rose by 6.5 percent in the first four months of the year.

(MORE)