March 11, 2005

World Media Watch

by Gloria R. Lalumia

BuzzFlash Note: WMW provides BuzzFlash readers foreign views and perspectives that are not usually available from the media here in the U.S. The presentation of these articles from these international publications is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

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WORLD MEDIA WATCH FOR MARCH 11, 2005

1//Aljazeera.net, Qatar--US REPORT ACKNOWLEDGES PEAK-OIL THREAT (It has long been denied that the US government bases any policy around the idea that global oil production may be in terminal decline. But a new US government-sponsored report, obtained by Aljazeera.net, does exactly that. Authored by Robert L. Hirsch, Roger Bezdek and Robert Wendling and entitled the Peaking of World Oil production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management, the report is an assessment requested by the US Department of Energy (DoE), National Energy Technology Laboratory. ... But this brand new senior-level report on "peak oil" is unprecedented in US government circles. It is not just the existence of the report itself that is such a landmark in the current oil debate. Its conclusions also pull no punches. ... The authors of the report also dismiss the power of the markets to solve any oil peak. They call for the intervention of governments. But also they rather worryingly point to a need to exclude public debate and environmental concerns from the process. They say this is needed to speed up decision-making. "Intervention by governments will be required, because the economic and social implications of oil peaking would otherwise be chaotic. But the process will not be easy. Expediency may require major changes to ... lengthy environmental reviews and lengthy public involvement.")

2//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong--US’s $5 BILLION NUCLEAR GAMBLE WITH CHINA (On the surface, it's the biggest deal in the history of the Export-Import Bank of the United States - US$5 billion to finance the building of Chinese nuclear power plants by US firms in the energy-starved economic giant. But there's much more to it than big business: closer scrutiny and interviews with experts reveal a weak, inconsistent and ultimately dangerous US policy with regard to China and its past (some say present) weapons proliferation, as well as China's own efforts to acquire nuclear reactors and other Western high technology that could be passed on to less-than-responsible states. In effect, in the interests of big business, the US is turning a blind eye to past proliferation by Chinese entities with which it deals. ... The Ex-Im loans and guarantees are part of aggressive efforts by US officials and diplomats, including former energy secretary Spencer Abraham and current Vice President Dick Cheney, to lobby the Chinese government to sign a deal with Monroeville, Pennsylvania-based power giant Westinghouse Electric Co.)

3//Turkish Daily News, Turkey--SYRIA SEEKS HELPING HAND FROM TURKEY (Syrian Information Minister Mehdi Dakhlallah has urged Ankara to assist Damascus in maintaining peace in the region by applying strategic pressure. … Cooperation between Turkey and Syria, which basically is to maintain peace, has become fact, Dakhlallah told the Anatolia news agency yesterday. He stressed that a good Turkish and Syrian relationship is for the benefit of the region. … The visit sparked a domestic debate among Turkish intellectuals focusing on whether such a visit was politically correct while Syrian troops were still in Lebanese territory.)

4//Institute for War and Peace Reporting, UK--NEW STRATEGY FOR TURKOMAN BLOC (The main Turkoman political group in Kirkuk is rethinking its strategy as a result of its failure to make gains in the January elections. In a dramatic turnaround, a leading official in the Turkoman Front indicated the group was now willing to countenance a federal Kurdistan, as long as the disputed city of Kirkuk retained a special separate status that gave all ethnic groups a say in how it is governed. … “The Turkoman now accept a federal solution,” said Kahya, “but they want Kirkuk to be a [separate] federal entity, administered by Kurds, Turkoman and Arabs.” In terms of national strategy, Kahya said the Turkoman Front had decided to join forces with the United Iraqi Alliance in the transitional parliament, having turned down a coalition offer from the Iraqi List, the group led by interim prime minister Ayad Allawi which came third in the ballot.)

5//The Moscow Times, Russia--KREMLIN MULLS DITCHING UNITED RUSSIA (Worried about United Russia's falling popularity after its approval of controversial social reforms, senior Kremlin officials are planning to create a new party of power and ditch the Kremlin-controlled party ahead of the 2007 parliamentary elections, two sources familiar with the situation said. The Kremlin, however, faces numerous hurdles to forming a new party -- hurdles that it unwittingly raised by deciding to overhaul the electoral system, political analysts said. Widespread public anger over the monetization of social benefits -- which stripped millions of pensioners, disabled people, war veterans and others of state benefits in exchange for meager cash payments -- has largely been directed at the United Russia-dominated State Duma, rather than at President Vladimir Putin or the federal government. Unprepared for the outcry and determined to maintain its grip on parliament, the Kremlin is looking to form a new party of power, the two sources said.)

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1//Aljazeera.net, Qatar Wednesday 09 March 2005, 18:23 Makka Time, 15:23 GMT
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/...

US REPORT ACKNOWLEDGES PEAK-OIL THREAT
By Adam Porter in Perpignan, France

It has long been denied that the US government bases any policy around the idea that global oil production may be in terminal decline.

But a new US government-sponsored report, obtained by Aljazeera.net, does exactly that.
Authored by Robert L. Hirsch, Roger Bezdek and Robert Wendling and entitled the Peaking of World Oil production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management, the report is an assessment requested by the US Department of Energy (DoE), National Energy Technology Laboratory.

It was prepared by Hirsch, who is a senior energy programme adviser at the private scientific and military company, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC).

They work extensively on defence and geopolitical issues for clients, including many for the US government.

Advisory roles

Among current job openings at SAIC are positions at Fort Benning (formerly School of the Americas) and a private military contract to help retrain the Albanian air force in Tirana.

Hirsch has held a wide variety of positions in the US energy hierarchy including senior energy analyst at the Rand Corporation, through to a presidentially appointed assistant administrator for solar, geothermal and advanced energy systems.

He has also previously worked for the US Department of Energy on numerous advisory committees, including the DoE Energy Research Advisory Board.

This new report follows on from two presentations by Hirsch last year. One on 1 March to the same National Energy Technology Laboratory and another on 14 June last year at the Annapolis Centre for Science Based Public Policy. Here Hirsch laid down his ideas on the peak of oil production.

The Annapolis Centre for Science-based Public Policy is a group which has received $658,000 in funding from Exxon Mobil since 1998. It openly disputes the idea that global warming is the result of burning fossil fuels.

But this brand new senior-level report on "peak oil" is unprecedented in US government circles. It is not just the existence of the report itself that is such a landmark in the current oil debate. Its conclusions also pull no punches.

Uncertain timing

"World oil peaking is going to happen," the report says. Only the "timing is uncertain."

The effects of any oil peak are similarly not ignored. Specifically, the impact on the economy of the United States. "The development of the US economy and lifestyle has been fundamentally shaped by the availability of abundant, low-cost oil. Oil scarcity and several-fold oil price increases due to world oil production peaking could have dramatic impacts ... the economic loss to the United States could be measured on a trillion-dollar scale," the report says.

The authors of the report also dismiss the power of the markets to solve any oil peak. They call for the intervention of governments. But also they rather worryingly point to a need to exclude public debate and environmental concerns from the process. They say this is needed to speed up decision-making.

"Intervention by governments will be required, because the economic and social implications of oil peaking would otherwise be chaotic. But the process will not be easy. Expediency may require major changes to ... lengthy environmental reviews and lengthy public involvement."

Hirsch notes, despite arguments from the major oil companies and producer nations, that new finds of oil are not replacing oil consumed each year. Despite the advances in technology reserves are becoming increasingly difficult to replace.

Three scenarios

(SNIP)

In what some may see as an optimistic assessment, the authors believe 20 years is enough time to limit damage from any peak. However, they point out that "if mitigation were to be too little, too late, world supply/demand balance will be achieved through massive demand destruction."

Demand destruction is a modern way of saying catastrophic recessions and shortages. But as well as these predictions, the report lays out "signals" it believes will be apparent in the run-up to any peak. This is perhaps the most worrying aspect of the report, as it seems to describe the very events that are taking place at the moment.

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2//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong Mar 11, 2005
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/GC11Ad05.html

US’s $5 BILLION NUCLEAR GAMBLE WITH CHINA
By Kaushik Kapisthalam
Kaushik Kapisthalam is a freelance defense and strategic affairs analyst based in the United States.

On the surface, it's the biggest deal in the history of the Export-Import Bank of the United States - US$5 billion to finance the building of Chinese nuclear power plants by US firms in the energy-starved economic giant. But there's much more to it than big business: closer scrutiny and interviews with experts reveal a weak, inconsistent and ultimately dangerous US policy with regard to China and its past (some say present) weapons proliferation, as well as China's own efforts to acquire nuclear reactors and other Western high technology that could be passed on to less-than-responsible states.

In effect, in the interests of big business, the US is turning a blind eye to past proliferation by Chinese entities with which it deals.

China says it's clean - no more proliferation and unauthorized exports of nuclear materials and equipment to states that should not have them. Not everyone is so sure.

America's sometimes serious, sometimes blase non-proliferation policy with respect to China hit a new low when the conservative magazine Human Events revealed that the US Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im Bank), an independent federal agency that finances exports by US firms, approved a preliminary commitment for $5 billion in loans and loan guarantees to the China National Nuclear Corp (CNNC) to finance the building of nuclear power plants by US firms.

The Ex-Im loans and guarantees are part of aggressive efforts by US officials and diplomats, including former energy secretary Spencer Abraham and current Vice President Dick Cheney, to lobby the Chinese government to sign a deal with Monroeville, Pennsylvania-based power giant Westinghouse Electric Co. Westinghouse had previously lobbied hard to obtain clearance for the sale from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission last September.

(SNIP)

Westinghouse, though considered a front-runner for the new PWR tender, is reportedly facing stiff competition from French major Framatome ANP, Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd (AECL) and the Russian firm AtomStroyExport. Such reactors are usually contracted in pairs and Westinghouse is pitching its state-of-the-art AP1,000 PWRs at $2.2 billion to $2.7 billion a pair. China formally accepted bids on February 28 and should it choose Westinghouse, the American taxpayer would be underwriting the reactor sale through Ex-Im and assuming the risk in case the Chinese buyer defaults.

At face value, this would seem to be just another example of US statecraft used to promote US companies abroad. After all, Westinghouse is unlikely to get too many new contracts to build nuclear power plants in the United States, due to the public ambivalence about and opposition to nuclear energy, and getting deals abroad could result in thousands of new US jobs.

What makes this deal different is the entity at the Chinese end - CNNC. Along with its wholly owned subsidiary, China Nuclear Energy Industry Corp (CNEIC), CNNC is known for numerous nuclear proliferation activities over many years.

(SNIP)

The real story is more than the mammoth business transaction - it's the proliferation links of the Ex-Im's beneficiary (CNNC) and the series of broken promises and sanctions shell game Beijing has been able to play with Washington.

(SNIP)

For its part, the US government, through the outgoing Under Secretary of State John Bolton and others, has argued that Washington has taken tough action on Chinese entities engaging in proliferation, through the imposition of sanctions and other moves. But as non-proliferation expert Gary Milhollin wrote in the New York Times recently, these sanctions are part of a "shell game" wherein the US knows its effects don't sting the Chinese regime as much as it appears.

For its part, the US government, through the outgoing Under Secretary of State John Bolton and others, has argued that Washington has taken tough action on Chinese entities engaging in proliferation, through the imposition of sanctions and other moves. But as non-proliferation expert Gary Milhollin wrote in the New York Times recently, these sanctions are part of a "shell game" wherein the US knows its effects don't sting the Chinese regime as much as it appears.

(MORE)

3//Turkish Daily News, Turkey Thursday, March 10, 2005
http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=7845

SYRIA SEEKS HELPING HAND FROM TURKEY

ANKARA - Turkish Daily News--Syrian Information Minister Mehdi Dakhlallah has urged Ankara to assist Damascus in maintaining peace in the region by applying strategic pressure.

He didn't elaborate on any targets of possible pressure; however, he criticized the U.S. administration's Middle East policies.

Cooperation between Turkey and Syria, which basically is to maintain peace, has become fact, Dakhlallah told the Anatolia news agency yesterday. He stressed that a good Turkish and Syrian relationship is for the benefit of the region.

We ask both Turkey and the Turkish people to apply some pressure that would help us to keep peace, Anatolia quoted Dakhlallah as saying. He said developments in the region have become a major concern for all regional countries, not only Syria. Those concerns have stemmed from threats, embargos and possible military interventions, he added.

Syria has been facing mounting pressure both from the United States and Israel, particularly after former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri was murdered in a bomb attack. A group of Turkish intellectuals visited Damascus earlier this month and held talks with Syrian government members and parliamentarians in a bid to voice support for the citizens of Syria.

The visit sparked a domestic debate among Turkish intellectuals focusing on whether such a visit was politically correct while Syrian troops were still in Lebanese territory. The visiting group believes threats directed at the Middle Eastern region by the United States are not only military in nature but that the region is being economically, politically and culturally impacted as well.

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4//Institute for War and Peace Reporting, UK (ICR No. 116, 09-Mar-05)
http://www.iwpr.net/index.pl?archive/irq/irq_116_1_eng.txt

NEW STRATEGY FOR TURKOMAN BLOC
By Soran Dawde in Kirkuk

The main Turkoman political group in Kirkuk is rethinking its strategy as a result of its failure to make gains in the January elections.

In a dramatic turnaround, a leading official in the Turkoman Front indicated the group was now willing to countenance a federal Kurdistan, as long as the disputed city of Kirkuk retained a special separate status that gave all ethnic groups a say in how it is governed.
The front, a major Turkoman political force which is aligned with Turkey, has come under pressure to change since the January 30 ballot, and now looks set to reform itself.

The oil-producing area around Kirkuk makes the city a highly desirable asset, and many Kurds view it as the future capital and economic heart of a future autonomous Kurdish entity. But as Iraq's boundary lines are currently drawn, the city lies outside the three governorates that together make up the Kurdish-administered region.

Besides the Kurds – tens of thousands of whom have returned to the area after being forced to move by Saddam Hussein’s ethnic policy of “Arabisation” - there are significant Turkoman, Arab and Assyrian communities who all have an interest in the city’s future.
Leading Turkoman political groups, in particular, have always opposed the Kurds’ plan to win more autonomy and to claim Kirkuk as their own.

(SNIP)

The Kurds have been pressing for Iraq to be reorganised so that large federal units such as a Kurdish region – possibly expanded to take in Kirkuk – would become the basic sub-national entity, rather than the current 18 governorates.

“The Turkoman now accept a federal solution,” said Kahya, “but they want Kirkuk to be a [separate] federal entity, administered by Kurds, Turkoman and Arabs.”

In terms of national strategy, Kahya said the Turkoman Front had decided to join forces with the United Iraqi Alliance in the transitional parliament, having turned down a coalition offer from the Iraqi List, the group led by interim prime minister Ayad Allawi which came third in the ballot.

(SNIP)

While still advocating separate status for Kirkuk rather than accepting that it should be incorporated into a Kurdish federal entity, Kahya’s comments signal a significant softening of the Turkoman Front’s line because it embraces the idea of a federal Iraq in which the Kurds would get their own region.

That change of position may have been prompted by a new policy in Turkey, which has lent the Turkoman Front political and diplomatic support since the group emerged in 1995.

The Turks have until recently opposed Kurdish demands for a federal entity in northern Iraq, for fear it could inspire secessionists at home to push for parts of southeast Turkey to be attached to an emerging state of Kurdistan.

As well as its concerns about the political future of the Kurds and Kirkuk, Turkey has maintained a strong relationship with the Turkoman minority in Iraq because of common ethnic bonds.

Last week, Talabani met a visiting high-ranking Turkish delegation headed by the country’s special envoy to Iraq, Fahri Koruturk. According to the Turkish newspaper Zaman, delegation members told Talabani that Turkey no longer objects to the Kurds' call for federalism, as long as there are guarantees that Iraqi’s territorial integrity is maintained and Kirkuk is given special status.

(SNIP)

Although there appears to be greater flexibility on the issue of Kurdish self-rule, Turkoman politicians outside the front as well as in it appear determined to prevent Kirkuk being subsumed into a future Kurdistan.

Younis Bairaqdar, a political independent who was a member of the outgoing provincial assembly, highlighted his community’s wish to maintain its own identity, especially given widespread fears that Kirkuk could be vulnerable to “Kurdification.”

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5//The Moscow Times, Russia Friday, March 11, 2005. Issue 3122. Page 1.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2005/03/11/002.html

KREMLIN MULLS DITCHING UNITED RUSSIA
By Francesca Mereu, Staff Writer

Worried about United Russia's falling popularity after its approval of controversial social reforms, senior Kremlin officials are planning to create a new party of power and ditch the Kremlin-controlled party ahead of the 2007 parliamentary elections, two sources familiar with the situation said.

The Kremlin, however, faces numerous hurdles to forming a new party -- hurdles that it unwittingly raised by deciding to overhaul the electoral system, political analysts said.

Widespread public anger over the monetization of social benefits -- which stripped millions of pensioners, disabled people, war veterans and others of state benefits in exchange for meager cash payments -- has largely been directed at the United Russia-dominated State Duma, rather than at President Vladimir Putin or the federal government.

Unprepared for the outcry and determined to maintain its grip on parliament, the Kremlin is looking to form a new party of power, the two sources said.

Both refused to go on the record with their comments, citing the sensitive nature of the issue. One is a well-placed official in the White House, the seat of the federal government, and the other is a well-connected official in the Kremlin.

"[Kremlin officials] understand that United Russia has lost all hope of replicating the good performance of the 2003 Duma elections and are considering different options," said the official in the White House. United Russia secured two-thirds of the Duma's seats in the elections.

Details about the planned new party are few because the issue is still under "active" discussion, the White House official said. Putin's deputy chief of staff Vladislav Surkov -- who coordinates the Kremlin's work with United Russia -- is pushing for a party that backs the president but opposes government policies. "This way people will have the impression that a brand-new party has been created," he said.

The Kremlin, however, faces trouble in cobbling together a party to replace United Russia -- which itself was a Kremlin project whose main purpose was to secure a majority of seats in the Duma in the last elections. In an attempt to eliminate all but a handful of loyal parties, the Kremlin pushed legislation through the Duma that raises membership requirements for new parties. It also introduced a bill to eliminate individual Duma races and prohibit parties from teaming up in coalitions.

The changes would play against the Kremlin, which failed to predict how unpopular the social reforms would be and how they would affect United Russia's popularity, said Yury Korgunyuk, a political analyst with the Indem think tank.

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