February 14, 2005

World Media Watch

by Gloria R. Lalumia

BuzzFlash Note: WMW provides BuzzFlash readers foreign views and perspectives that are not usually available from the media here in the U.S. The presentation of these articles from these international publications is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

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WORLD MEDIA WATCH FOR FEBRUARY 16, 2005

1//Lebanonwire.com, Lebanon--HARIRI MURDER TRIGGERS FEARS OF ECONOMIC MELTDOWN IN LEBANON (The killing of five-time prime minister Rafiq Hariri, Lebanon's richest man and the father of its post-war reconstruction, raised fears of a new crisis in an economy already teetering under a mountain of debt. The assassination shattered in an instant the picture of a safe and secure modern Lebanon, carefully crafted by the billionaire banker, construction magnate and wily politician in the aftermath of the 1975-90 civil war. Not only could his killing dry up foreign investment, but pressure on the local markets could also force the central bank to dig deep into its 10 billion dollar reserves to safeguard the Lebanese pound…Admired by financiers at home and abroad, and close to the mega-wealthy Saudi royal family, Hariri was banking, real estate, oil, industry and telecommunications giant in Lebanon, the Gulf and the West. However, his detractors said he was a spendthrift, whose corrupt administration dragged an already feeble economy deeper into debt and used sky-high interest rates to stabilise the pound…The first indication of how the economy will absorb his passing will come on Friday when the banks reopen after the three-day national mourning, and the political and financial worlds splutter back to life.)

2//The Daily Star, Lebanon--RUSSIA TELLS ISRAEL ARMS DEAL WITH SYRIA WILL GO AHEAD (Russia has informed Israel that a controversial sale of a weapons system to Syria is to go ahead despite Israeli objections, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said Tuesday. "I wrote to President (Vladimir) Putin but we got an answer (saying) they are going to sell that kind of weapon to the Syrians," Sharon told reporters…Putin said in an interview late last month that Russia would never upset the Middle East's regional balance but any sale of the anti-aircraft missiles could be allowed for "defensive purposes." "While we're talking about supplies of weapons to countries in the region, such a supply should be understood in the light of supporting defensive capacities, as in Syria," he told The Jerusalem Post…During a visit to Washington in January, Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov was warned by the American government against any deal with Syria…Analysts at the time said the deal was unlikely to go through. The episode highlights the importance Russia still attaches to a country viewed as a mortal enemy by an Israeli government that has warmed up to Putin in recent years.)

3//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong--INDIA’S MILITARY HUNGRY FOR MORE (Indian defense officials have laid out a request for a huge increase in spending on arms to New Delhi, most of which will be used to purchase state-of-the-art weaponry from suppliers around the world. In a couple of weeks, the national budget will be presented by the ruling United Progressive Alliance, headed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, and while there is intense lobbying from representatives of various sectors to incorporate their demands, attention has focused on the over 40% hike in defense outlay that has been demanded by the India's defense forces, which comes in the wake of an unprecedented 22% increase last year…Predictably, Pakistan is miffed at India's proposals to hike defense spending. Islamabad has repeatedly warned that India's increased defense spending was a "cause for concern". "This would wittingly or unwittingly accelerate the arms race between the two countries, which we could have avoided because both India and Pakistan need massive resources for poverty alleviation, education, health and for the social sector and creating new jobs," Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman Masood Khan said in the recent past. Khan also said that Pakistan had increased its own defense spending, though at a smaller rate than India, and would seek to maintain the "competitive edge of our strategic and conventional capabilities".)

4//The Chosun Ilbo, South Korea--NORTH KOREA CAN’T PUT NUKE WARHEADS ON MISSILES: NIS (The National Intelligence Service (NIS) reported Tuesday North Korea could build one or two nuclear weapons but lacked the technology to affix warheads to missiles. The NIS told a parliamentary intelligence committee that Pyongyang has yet to develop the technology to miniaturize warheads to under 500kg so they can be carried by missiles. The NIS said even if North Korea produced nuclear weapons they would be A-bombs to be dropped from aircraft similar to the one that devastated Hiroshima, Japan at the end of World War II, a committee member reported…Evaluations of Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities differ even within the government. Both the Defense Ministry and NIS are emphasizing the possibility that North Korea has manufactured atomic weapons, while the Unification and Foreign ministries are noncommittal citing lack of evidence.)

5//Deutsche-Welle/dw.worlde.de, Germany--SCHRODER SLAMMED OVER NATO REFORM IDEA (German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder was heavily criticized on Monday for urging an overhaul of NATO, with some observers saying his remarks could damage ties with the United States. Schröder's remarks came in a speech, read by Defense Minister Peter Struck, at a Munich security conference over the weekend in which he said NATO "is no longer the primary venue where transatlantic partners discuss and coordinate strategies."…The daily Die Welt headlined with "Schröder Alienates His NATO Partners" and puts new strains on relations with Washington, which were already badly frayed by Germany's opposition to the US-led war in Iraq. "If Europe's most important NATO partner starts questioning the Alliance, a new Atlantic crisis will erupt," the country's most widely-read newspaper, Bild, said in an editorial.)

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1//Lebanonwire.com, Lebanon February 15, 2005
http://www.lebanonwire.com/0502/05021519AFP.asp

HARIRI MURDER TRIGGERS FEARS OF ECONOMIC MELTDOWN IN LEBANON
by Henri Mamarbachi

BEIRUT, Feb 15 (AFP) - The killing of five-time prime minister Rafiq Hariri, Lebanon's richest man and the father of its post-war reconstruction, raised fears of a new crisis in an economy already teetering under a mountain of debt.

The assassination shattered in an instant the picture of a safe and secure modern Lebanon, carefully crafted by the billionaire banker, construction magnate and wily politician in the aftermath of the 1975-90 civil war. Not only could his killing dry up foreign investment, but pressure on the local markets could also force the central bank to dig deep into its 10 billion dollar reserves to safeguard the Lebanese pound.

"This type of tragedy does nothing but set back the cause of peace and social justice in Lebanon and in the region," World Bank President James Wolfensohn said.

"There are reasons to be concerned, but we have to wait and see what happens in the next few days," one Lebanese businessman said.

The son of a farm hand, Hariri rose to become one of the world's 100 richest people with an estimated wealth of around 10 billion dollars -- more than half Lebanon's estimated 17 billion dollar gross domestic product.

Admired by financiers at home and abroad, and close to the mega-wealthy Saudi royal family, Hariri was banking, real estate, oil, industry and telecommunications giant in Lebanon, the Gulf and the West.

However, his detractors said he was a spendthrift, whose corrupt administration dragged an already feeble economy deeper into debt and used sky-high interest rates to stabilise the pound.

The first indication of how the economy will absorb his passing will come on Friday when the banks reopen after the three-day national mourning, and the political and financial worlds splutter back to life.

Monetary authorities are likely to spend between now and then concentrating on how best to counter downward pressure on the pound and any unexpected demand on the US dollar.

(SNIP)

Pegged to the dollar, with one dollar worth 1,513 Lebanese pounds, the currency has been stable for 12 years and finances improved under Hariri. Three years ago, he secured a 2.5 billion dollar loan from France, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The banking sector had enjoyed something of a rebirth, with its assets totally 3.5 times the country's total GDP by the end of 2004.

Fuelled by hefty investment from the Arab Gulf, banking liquidity helped shelter Lebanon against the macro-economic risks incurred by its outrageous foreign debt of 34.6 billion dollars, up by 11 billion dollars since 2000.

The government, paralysed by political intrigue, has been slow to implement economic reforms demanded by the international community and Lebanese bankers.

Hariri's resignation in October sparked a brief panic on the markets, forcing the central bank to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to absorb the pressure on the local currency. The fall-out of his death remains to be seen.

2//The Daily Star, Lebanon Wednesday, February 16, 2005
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=2&article_id=12706

RUSSIA TELLS ISRAEL ARMS DEAL WITH SYRIA WILL GO AHEAD
Sharon calls Lebanon 'center of terror'

By Agence France Presse (AFP)

JERUSALEM: Russia has informed Israel that a controversial sale of a weapons system to Syria is to go ahead despite Israeli objections, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said Tuesday.

"I wrote to President (Vladimir) Putin but we got an answer (saying) they are going to sell that kind of weapon to the Syrians," Sharon told reporters.

"We worry about that and we don't think that should have happened," he added.

Israel and the U.S. have both expressed disquiet about the sale of the Russian-made surface-to-air SA-18 missiles, fearing they could end up in the hands of Hizbullah, the Damascus-backed Shiite militia in Lebanon.

(SNIP)

Putin said in an interview late last month that Russia would never upset the Middle East's regional balance but any sale of the anti-aircraft missiles could be allowed for "defensive purposes."

"While we're talking about supplies of weapons to countries in the region, such a supply should be understood in the light of supporting defensive capacities, as in Syria," he told The Jerusalem Post.

"First of all, we understand and are committed to maintaining the balance of forces in the region. We understand our responsibilities. We have not taken a single step to violate that balance," said Putin.

"Second of all, we won't bring to the region weapons that can be used by terrorists or that can be transferred to terrorists without controls," he added.

Syrian President Bashar Assad, who met with Putin in Moscow last month, has said any missile system would be for defensive purposes.

The U.S. strongly opposed the sale of missiles to Syria when rumors of the sale surfaced in January before Assad's visit. During a visit to Washington in January, Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov was warned by the American government against any deal with Syria. Ivanov left Washington smarting over the rebuke over the missile reports that also prompted an emergency government session in Israel.

Analysts at the time said the deal was unlikely to go through. The episode highlights the importance Russia still attaches to a country viewed as a mortal enemy by an Israeli government that has warmed up to Putin in recent years.

3//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong Feb 16, 2005
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/GB16Df06.html

INDIA’S MILITARY HUNGRY FOR MORE
By Siddharth Srivastava

NEW DELHI - Indian defense officials have laid out a request for a huge increase in spending on arms to New Delhi, most of which will be used to purchase state-of-the-art weaponry from suppliers around the world. In a couple of weeks, the national budget will be presented by the ruling United Progressive Alliance, headed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, and while there is intense lobbying from representatives of various sectors to incorporate their demands, attention has focused on the over 40% hike in defense outlay that has been demanded by the India's defense forces, which comes in the wake of an unprecedented 22% increase last year.

(SNIP)

The Indian defense community's wish list is long, which they feel is necessary to modernize the country's armed forces. These include a proposal to purchase F-16 fighter jets, Scorpene submarines and long-range rocket systems. The proposal to buy 126 F-16s - at $25 million each over five years - will itself cost the exchequer $3 billion. When this is added to the payments being made for the expensive equipment already purchased, the defense budget takes on huge proportions.

The increased defense spending includes more than $7 billion to purchase weapons systems and to implement the intermediate-range Agni ballistic missile units, capable of delivering nuclear warheads. India last year signed a $1.5 billion agreement with BAE Systems Plc, Europe's biggest weapons maker, for 66 Hawk Advanced Jet Trainer aircraft as part of its plan to modernize its air force.

Last year, the country also inked a multimillion-dollar deal with Russia to acquire an aircraft carrier, the Admiral Gorshkov. India has also agreed to buy three Phalcon airborne early-warning radar systems from Israel valued at $1 billion. Of the 3,414 tanks in the Indian army's possession, 1,200 are obsolete, while 700 of them are vintage Russian T-55s. India has been introducing T-90s phase-by-phase and it is estimated that almost $8 billion will be set apart for a project to increase the firepower of the infantry.

It is estimated that Israel's defense industry sold arms and munitions to India valued at $2.7 billion in 2003, constituting about 30% of its total orders, and offered more at Aero India, a five-day international aerospace and defense exhibition that ended this Sunday in the Indian city of Bangalore. It has been reported that at Aero India, touted as the largest show of its kind in South Asia, deals worth more than $1.2 billion were been signed between Indian and foreign aerospace firms. The deals ranged from aircraft purchases by Indian budget carriers from Airbus and Boeing to the joint manufacture of missiles and engine parts. India's air force is seeking government approval for 126 so-called "multi-role" combat aircraft to replace aging Russian MiGs, India's Air Chief Marshal Satish Tyagi said in Bangalore. Boeing has offered to sell its F-18 jets, while Maryland-based Lockheed Martin has offered its F-16 fighter as part of the deal.

(SNIP)

Predictably, Pakistan is miffed at India's proposals to hike defense spending. Islamabad has repeatedly warned that India's increased defense spending was a "cause for concern". "This would wittingly or unwittingly accelerate the arms race between the two countries, which we could have avoided because both India and Pakistan need massive resources for poverty alleviation, education, health and for the social sector and creating new jobs," Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman Masood Khan said in the recent past. Khan also said that Pakistan had increased its own defense spending, though at a smaller rate than India, and would seek to maintain the "competitive edge of our strategic and conventional capabilities".

(SNIP)

As far as India's other powerful neighbor, China, is concerned, it is believed that the exponential growth of business relations between the two countries is an effective deterrent, but in any case it would be impossible for India ever to match China's military strength. But business is seen as a bridge to peaceful relations. Sino-Indian bilateral trade has set a record, touching $13.6 billion in 2004, up by 79% over the total trade volume of 2003. India enjoyed a comfortable trade surplus of $1.75 billion, according to Chinese customs statistics. If growth remains at current levels, India-China trade could cross $17 billion by the end of 2004-05. In contrast, India's trade with the United States - its largest trading partner - has grown by just over 23% in April-August 2004. Indeed, there is an increasing comfort level, with India discounting Chinese influence in Nepal after the royal coup there on February 1 and the dismissal of the democratically elected government.

(MORE)

4//The Chosun Ilbo, South Korea Updated Feb.15,2005 19:52 KST
http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200502/200502150028.html

NORTH KOREA CAN’T PUT NUKE WARHEADS ON MISSILES: NIS

The National Intelligence Service (NIS) reported Tuesday North Korea could build one or two nuclear weapons but lacked the technology to affix warheads to missiles. The NIS told a parliamentary intelligence committee that Pyongyang has yet to develop the technology to miniaturize warheads to under 500kg so they can be carried by missiles.

The NIS said even if North Korea produced nuclear weapons they would be A-bombs to be dropped from aircraft similar to the one that devastated Hiroshima, Japan at the end of World War II, a committee member reported.

"The NIS said that because North Korea has yet to develop miniaturization technology, foreign news reports like those about North Korean exports of nuclear technology abroad, or reports that Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan saw nuclear warheads atop missiles when he visited North Korea, were probably unreliable," another committee member said. Last year, the international press reported Khan as saying he saw missile-use nuclear warheads in North Korea.

The Defense Ministry said in its 2004 White Paper published Feb. 4 that North Korea could have manufactured one or two nuclear devices with about 10-14kg of plutonium the country extracted before IAEA inspections in 1992.

Evaluations of Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities differ even within the government. Both the Defense Ministry and NIS are emphasizing the possibility that North Korea has manufactured atomic weapons, while the Unification and Foreign ministries are noncommittal citing lack of evidence.

During a parliamentary exchange Monday, Unification Ministry Chung Dong-young said the North Korean Foreign Ministry's nuclear declaration was merely a claim. While it is certain the North has 10-14kg of nuclear materials, it is uncertain whether Pyongyang has made nuclear weapons, he said.

(MORE)

5//Deutsche-Welle/dw.worlde.de, Germany 14.02.2005
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,1564,1488890,00.html

SCHRODER SLAMMED OVER NATO REFORM IDEA

German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder was heavily criticized on Monday for urging an overhaul of NATO, with some observers saying his remarks could damage ties with the United States.

Schröder's remarks came in a speech, read by Defense Minister Peter Struck, at a Munich security conference over the weekend in which he said NATO "is no longer the primary venue where transatlantic partners discuss and coordinate strategies."

Javier Solana, the European Union's top foreign policy representative, soundly rejected the chancellor's initiative. "NATO has not lost any of its relevance. One shouldn't dramatize things that aren't dramatic," he told the Berliner Zeitung newspaper on Monday.

(SNIP)

The German press acknowledged that Schröder had been ill, but said Struck had been ill-prepared, unable to say whether the chancellor wanted the military alliance dissolved, and that German aides were surprised and disappointed.

New transatlantic tension?

The daily Die Welt headlined with "Schröder Alienates His NATO Partners" and puts new strains on relations with Washington, which were already badly frayed by Germany's opposition to the US-led war in Iraq. "If Europe's most important NATO partner starts questioning the Alliance, a new Atlantic crisis will erupt," the country's most widely-read newspaper, Bild, said in an editorial.

" In the way he conveyed the idea he has done serious if not irreparable damage," the Süddeutsche Zeitung wrote, adding that the chancellor had "left the NATO secretary general thinking he is doing a bad job."

In his speech, Schröder also urged the European Union and the United States to set up a panel of senior and independent officials to analyze new ways to boost transatlantic relations. "This panel should submit a report to the heads of state and government of NATO and the European Union by the beginning of 2006 on the basis of its analysis and proposals. The necessary conclusions could then be drawn," he said.

Schröder's unusually strong remarks, less than two weeks before a NATO summit, follow a visit to Germany this month by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who invited Berlin to demonstrate that it is willing to improve its relations with Washington. Rice, whose visit will be followed by US President George W. Bush on February 23, urged Germany to play a greater role in Iraq following the landmark elections there last month.

Schröder, who vehemently opposed the US-led war to oust Saddam Hussein, appears likely to expand Germany's role in training Iraq's overwhelmed police and military forces within the framework of NATO.

Copyright 2005, Gloria R. Lalumia