October 20, 2004

World Media Watch

by Gloria R. Lalumia

BuzzFlash Note: WMW provides BuzzFlash readers foreign views and perspectives that are not usually available from the media here in the U.S. The presentation of these articles from these international publications is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

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WORLD MEDIA WATCH FOR OCTOBER 20, 2004

1//The Independent, UK--BRITISH FORCES 'WILL BE TARGETED BY IRAQI INSURGENTS' (Iraqi insurgents are likely to target British troops if they redeploy, trying to drive a wedge between Britain and America and force a British withdrawal, independent military experts warned yesterday... People in Fallujah and military sources in Baghdad say militants who escaped the American encirclement of the city have fanned out into the farmlands around Latifiyah, where the British contingent is expected be. The IISS reports: "With Osama bin Laden's public encouragement, up to 1,000 foreign jihadists may have infiltrated Iraq." Christopher Bellamy, professor of military science and doctrine at Cranfield University, said the redeployment "opens up the opportunity for elements of the insurgency to attack the British, knowing there is concern about the deployment". He said the tactical aim of the insurgency was to drive a wedge between the US and Britain, and added: "We are advertising this in advance. It is like saying, 'Stick the chisel in here'.")

2//The Daily Times, Pakistan--TALIBAN INSURGENCY MAY BE WANING (Hit-and-run ambushes and sporadic rocket attacks is all the Taliban could muster in the weeks before and after Afghanistan's landmark election, raising hopes that the Islamist hardliners' insurgency is waning..."We are confident that the Taliban are no longer the threat that they used to be," said Defence Ministry spokesman General Zaher Azimi. "In all areas we are patrolling with confidence. There are attacks, but this is small - like bandits." Analysts say that while it is clear attacks by the Taliban and their Al Qaeda allies have diminished, it would be foolhardy to say the threat was over.)

3//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong--CEMENTING RUSSIA'S CENTRAL ASIAN CLOUT (In the immediate aftermath of Russia's unprecedented deal to exchange debt relief for military facilities in mountainous Central Asia, Moscow has joined a purely Central Asian grouping, indicating the Kremlin's continued determination to sustain its influence in this geopolitically competitive zone. At a regional summit on Monday in Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan, Russia formally joined the Central Asian Cooperation Organization (CACO), which includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. It is a move that further boosts Russia's already significant clout in the region.)

4//The Daily Star, Lebanon--IRAN TO ADOPT GRADUAL PRIVATIZATION PROGRAM (Iran's top legislative arbitration body, which earlier this month paved the way to major privatizations in the Islamic state, said on Monday it is proposing a gradual approach to the sale of state assets. The Expediency Council this month overturned a key plank of the constitution to allow large-scale privatizations in a bid to overhaul the country's lumbering economy...In a move that could signal the end of Iran's state-dominated economic model, the Expediency Council earlier this month gave the green light to privatization of major sectors. The ruling allows privatization of downstream oil and gas sectors, mines, banking, insurance, telecommunications, railway, roads, airlines and shipping.)

5//Gulf News Online, United Arab Emirates--EU AND SYRIA SET TO INITIAL KEY DEAL (Syria and the European Union will initial a key trade and political agreement today, paving the way for closer ties after talks were stalled for a year over disagreements over weapons of mass destruction...The pact, which would give Syria greater access to EU markets in exchange for progress on human rights and other core EU values, highlights the European policy of engagement in contrast to the US use of sanctions against Damascus...A spokesman for the Dutch EU presidency said the Syrian agreement would not be on the agenda at a foreign minister's meeting on November 2, but could appear at the next meeting in late November, or in December.)

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1//The Independent, UK 20 October 2004
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/story.jsp?story=573931

BRITISH FORCES 'WILL BE TARGETED BY IRAQI INSURGENTS'
By Anne Penketh and Kim Sengupta in Baghdad

Iraqi insurgents are likely to target British troops if they redeploy, trying to drive a wedge between Britain and America and force a British withdrawal, independent military experts warned yesterday.

Colonel Christopher Langton said public debate about the possible redeployment of up to 1,000 British soldiers from Basra was "rather unfortunate" and could jeopardise British troops by "highlighting it so graphically". He added: "The insurgency will see this as a weakness they can attack, and the British public can now say 'I told you so'," to the Government. That is the way the insurgents work."

Colonel Langton edited the annual military survey by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), released in London yesterday.

British troops sent north to help the Americans in storming Fallujah will enter a war of attrition far removed from their comparatively stable base in southern Iraq. They are to be deployed to one of the most violent flashpoints in the country.

The Americans want the Black Watch to be deployed in one of a cluster of towns, Iskandariyah, Latifiyah and Mahmudiyah, 20 miles south of Baghdad. The area is a feeder route to Fallujah and strategically important for any offensive on the city. The British troops would play a support role, freeing US combat troops for Fallujah.

People in Fallujah and military sources in Baghdad say militants who escaped the American encirclement of the city have fanned out into the farmlands around Latifiyah, where the British contingent is expected be. The IISS reports: "With Osama bin Laden's public encouragement, up to 1,000 foreign jihadists may have infiltrated Iraq." Christopher Bellamy, professor of military science and doctrine at Cranfield University, said the redeployment "opens up the opportunity for elements of the insurgency to attack the British, knowing there is concern about the deployment".

He said the tactical aim of the insurgency was to drive a wedge between the US and Britain, and added: "We are advertising this in advance. It is like saying, 'Stick the chisel in here'."

2//The Daily Times, Pakistan Wednesday, October 20, 2004
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_20-10-2004_pg7_42

TALIBAN INSURGENCY MAY BE WANING

KABUL: Hit-and-run ambushes and sporadic rocket attacks is all the Taliban could muster in the weeks before and after Afghanistan's landmark election, raising hopes that the Islamist hardliners' insurgency is waning.

US and Afghan military officials say a massive security clampdown for the Oct 9 vote made it almost impossible for the Taliban to operate.

But they say the group's influence and appeal was already in decline. "This is not just coming from our sources, but government sources in Afghanistan as well," Major Scott Nelson, said a spokesman for the US-led coalition force in Afghanistan. "They are saying the Taliban have strategically failed."

Afghan military officials also say the Taliban is on the run - despite Afghan National Army (ANA) soldiers making up the bulk of casualties in the insurgency.

"We are confident that the Taliban are no longer the threat that they used to be," said Defence Ministry spokesman General Zaher Azimi. "In all areas we are patrolling with confidence. There are attacks, but this is small - like bandits."

Analysts say that while it is clear attacks by the Taliban and their Al Qaeda allies have diminished, it would be foolhardy to say the threat was over.

"It is too early to say that they no longer have the stomach for it," said Vikram Parekh, senior Afghanistan analyst with the Brussels-based International Crisis Group. "Bear in mind that there are far more Afghans with a stake in the country - and that includes the Taliban. But there is still the chance that they could pull off something big, something shocking."

A Western diplomat added: "The last thing the US wants is to say 'It's all over' and for a huge attack to take place. That would be very foolish, but at the same time officials do want credit for quashing the insurgency."

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3//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong Oct 20, 2004
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/FJ20Ag01.htmlz

CEMENTING RUSSIA'S CENTRAL ASIAN CLOUT
By Sergei Blagov

MOSCOW - In the immediate aftermath of Russia's unprecedented deal to exchange debt relief for military facilities in mountainous Central Asia, Moscow has joined a purely Central Asian grouping, indicating the Kremlin's continued determination to sustain its influence in this geopolitically competitive zone.

At a regional summit on Monday in Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan, Russia formally joined the Central Asian Cooperation Organization (CACO), which includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. It is a move that further boosts Russia's already significant clout in the region.

(SNIP)

CACO was founded in 1994 as the Central Asian Economic Cooperation Organization, and its membership includes all of the former Central Asian Soviet republics with the exception of reclusive Turkmenistan. CACO has pledged to create a regional common market and free trade zone within 15 years. This week's CACO summit included vows to develop ties with Afghanistan. For the first time, an Afghan delegation attended the CACO summit, headed by interim Vice President Hedayat Amin Arsala.

Tajikistan breakthrough
The CACO gathering came in the wake of Putin's significant foreign policy breakthrough. Over the weekend, he opened a new military base in Tajikistan. After years of negotiations, the new base, which is to house more than 5,000 soldiers, replaces the garrison of Russia's 201st Division. It will be the largest military base outside Russia. Moscow also formally took over Okno (Window), a space surveillance complex in Nurek, in the Tajik mountains near Chinese frontiers. Moscow had secured a practically free 49-year land lease of the space surveillance complex, which gives Russia further reach into East Asia. The Okno complex is understood to be a convenient locale to monitor China's missile launches.

(SNIP)

In exchange for the base and the Okno facility, Russia agreed to write off $242 million of Tajik debt. Moscow also pledged to invest $2 billion in the former Soviet state. For instance, Russian aluminum major Rusal plans to invest $560 million to build Tajikistan's Ragun hydropower plant, and will put up an undisclosed amount to build an aluminum plant in the Central Asian state as well.

Russia has made no secret that its security strategy in the region is being driven by economic considerations as well. On Saturday, Putin said Russia's "military presence in Tajikistan will not only guarantee our investment but will also guarantee stability in the region". The moves are seen as Moscow's response to the United States' military presence in Central Asia.

(SNIP)

The US has been pushing to boost ties with Tajikistan and Tajik authorities have been receptive to Washington's overtures. Tajikistan's main attraction for Washington is its strategic location along Afghanistan's northern border. Russian media have also reported an allegation that Rakhmonov had been offered $1 billion in US aid in exchange for refusing to set up a Russian military base in Tajikistan. Tajik officials denied the allegation.

(SNIP)

Putin opted to use his Central Asian tour as a forum to announce that terrorist attacks in Iraq were aimed at preventing President George W Bush's re-election in November. "International terrorism aims at causing maximum damage to President Bush and to forestall his second term re-election," Putin was quoted by RIA news agency. "If they succeed, they would celebrate a victory against America and the anti-terror coalition, and this could lead to more acts of international terrorism," he said.

Putin was careful to refrain from expressing clear bias in the November 2 election. "We respect any choice of the American people," he said. However, Putin's remarks can be interpreted to mean that Russia views Bush's re-election as a blow to international terrorism and vice versa. Russian media were also not exactly convinced by official caveats. Lenta.ru, an online news resource, ironically commented that "Putin solved an international terrorist conspiracy against President Bush".

4//The Daily Star, Lebanon Wednesday, October 20, 2004
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=3&article_id=9405

IRAN TO ADOPT GRADUAL PRIVATIZATION PROGRAM
Hardlines criticise move despite concessions limiting sell off

Compiled by Daily Star staff

BEIRUT: Iran's top legislative arbitration body, which earlier this month paved the way to major privatizations in the Islamic state, said on Monday it is proposing a gradual approach to the sale of state assets.

The Expediency Council this month overturned a key plank of the constitution to allow large-scale privatizations in a bid to overhaul the country's lumbering economy.

The council's move was heavily criticized by Iran's hard-line media which said the initiative threatened the country's economic sovereignty.

"We propose ceding a maximum of 20 percent per year for each major state entity over the next five years," council member Majid Ansari said in a news conference on Monday. The council also suggested that the government retains a sizable stake of shares in state banks.

"We want to keep at least 35 percent of the shares of banks which are to be privatized, so that the state can apply its control in the sector," Morteza Nabavi, another member of the Expediency Council said.

The proposal should be approved in the next council session on Saturday, he added. Analysts say Iran's inefficient state-owned banking system is a bottle-neck for the country's fledging economy.

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the last word on all state matters, said last week that a capitalist approach for privatization in Iran is out of the question.

"Keeping everything in the hands of the state is wrong, but privatization must be carried out while securing state supervision and sovereignty," he was quoted as saying by Resalat daily.

In a move that could signal the end of Iran's state-dominated economic model, the Expediency Council earlier this month gave the green light to privatization of major sectors.

The ruling allows privatization of downstream oil and gas sectors, mines, banking, insurance, telecommunications, railway, roads, airlines and shipping.

Article 44 of Iran's constitution, written after the 1979 Islamic Revolution decreed the core infrastructure must remain in the hands of the state.

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5//Gulf News Online, United Arab Emirates Tuesday, October 19, 2004
http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/Region2.asp?ArticleID=136283

EU AND SYRIA SET TO INITIAL KEY DEAL
Reuters

Brussels: Syria and the European Union will initial a key trade and political agreement today, paving the way for closer ties after talks were stalled for a year over disagreements over weapons of mass destruction.

Syrian Foreign Minister Farouq Al Shara will initial the association agreement in Brussels, putting Damascus on the same footing as all other members of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership, a 12-member group of the EU's southern neighbours.

The pact, which would give Syria greater access to EU markets in exchange for progress on human rights and other core EU values, highlights the European policy of engagement in contrast to the US use of sanctions against Damascus.

It was originally agreed last December but the EU, prompted by Britain, Germany and Denmark, insisted on including a passage on non-proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological arms, which Damascus declined to sign.

Negotiators have been working to bridge the gap since then and the EU's executive Commission announced last month that they had agreed a new wording on weapons.

Syrian authorities played down the significance of today's signing, noting the EU's 25 foreign ministers would still have to approve the agreement before it took effect.

"Let's not exaggerate, they're only initialling what the negotiators have agreed," Syrian embassy spokesman Jihad Makdissi said.

"Now the ball is in the court of the European side," he said, adding that he hoped EU foreign ministers would approve it before the end of the year. US contrast

A spokesman for the Dutch EU presidency said the Syrian agreement would not be on the agenda at a foreign minister's meeting on November 2, but could appear at the next meeting in late November, or in December.

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