June 30, 2004

World Media Watch

by Gloria R. Lalumia

BUZZFLASH NOTE: WMW provides BuzzFlash readers foreign views and perspectives that are not usually available from the media here in the U.S. The presentation of these articles from these international publications is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

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WORLD MEDIA WATCH FOR JUNE 30, 2004

1//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong--SOVEREIGNTY: NOW THE GAMES REALLY BEGIN (...In the present phase, the activities of the five actors - the US, Iran, Turkey, Israel and the Iraqi insurgents - will not only play a major role in determining the stability of Iraq, but also in formulating the prospects for the legitimacy of the interim government. At least for now, that government is seen as a puppet and a supplicant of the US, at a time when anti-Americanism is on the rise, not just in Iraq, but also across the Middle East...If the end of occupation on June 28 meant the emergence of a sovereign interim Iraqi government, that reality has not yet materialized, at least not in the eyes of a majority of Iraqis. The most complicating factor for the interim government is not to appear as a pawn in the hands of the Americans, Turks, Iranians, but especially the Israelis. However, with everything else that it must accomplish in the meantime - the most important of which is the ability to reestablish or sustain basic services and oil distribution facilities and reduce the unemployment rate, which is reported to be between 30-60% - the interim government is indeed faced with an awesome, and potentially insurmountable, task.)

2//KurdishMedia, UK--KURDISH IRAQ LEADER HINTS AT SECESSION (-- Kurdish Iraqi leader Massud Barzani warned Tuesday that the Kurds will not honor Iraq's unity unless a federal and democratic system is installed...He called on Iraq's new interim government under Iyad Allawi to honor the terms of the State Administration Law, which upholds the Kurds' right to autonomy in northern Iraq, when drafting the country's permanent constitution. "Unless these terms are met, we won't have any commitment toward Iraq's unity," he said, in a veiled threat to secede from Iraq.)

3//The Daily Times, Pakistan--SHIAS WILL SEEK AUTHORITY FROM IRAQ (The rise of a secular, democratic Iraq could pose a threat to Iran's Shia clerical establishment, which fears it would serve as a powerful model for moderate Iranians who seek change, clerics said. Many senior clerics are particularly concerned about any shift in the centre of gravity within Shia Islam away from Iran's holy city of Qom, from where clerics wield immense political authority, towards Najaf in neighbouring Iraq. The emergence of Najaf coincides with the rise to political prominence of Iraqi clerics, such as Ayatollah Ali Sistani, who question the legitimacy of absolute rule by the clergy.... Iran fears Washington may promote its secular ally Iraq as a model for Shias to emulate in pressing for change in the Islamic state, which Washington accuses of harbouring terrorism and pursuing nuclear weapons.)

4//The Scotsman, UK--DIFFERENT ELECTIONS BATTLES COULD SEPARATE UNITED BUSH AND BLAIR (...The Washington administration seems to be admitting a quiet defeat on the "Bush doctrine" - a neoconservative vision of pre-emption that meant that the US would take out a threat while it was emerging. Any pre-emptive attack would have to be based on intelligence - and the furore about the use of intelligence makes it unlikely that any dossier would be trusted in future. For Mr Bush, this is a real loss. Mr Blair, however, has more reason to be downbeat. His case for war with Iraq was always far more narrow than that of the US president - and this predicament can be traced to a fundamental error that he made in 1975. This was the year he joined the Labour Party.)

5//The Philippine Daily Inquirer, Philippines--TIGHT SECURITY, ROSES FOR MACAPAGAL (Amidst "blanket security" and thousands of orange and crimson roses, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo takes her oath on Wednesday as the country's 14th president...A police officer told the Inquirer there would also be an intelligence agent in every corner of Metro Cebu. Some organizations had also been tapped to help the police in providing intelligence information. Even stray dogs were taken off the streets. City officials found it improper to have the canines around while Macapagal-Arroyo was taking her oath of office.)

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1//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong June 30, 2004
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/FF30Ak01.html

SOVEREIGNTY: NOW THE GAMES REALLY BEGIN
By Ehsan Ahrari
Ehsan Ahrari, PhD, is an Alexandria, Virginia, US-based independent strategic analyst.

The overt United States occupation phase of Iraq came to a close on June 28, but its stealthy phase is still continuing. The holding of the transfer of sovereignty ceremony two days earlier than its original deadline of June 30, and the decision to keep it short and simple, were in recognition of the extremely precarious security situation that prevails in Iraq. If it was the beginning of a momentous chapter in Iraq, the secretive, quiet and an uneventful departure of the former Iraqi administrator, L Paul Bremer, did not show it. In the present phase, the activities of the five actors - the US, Iran, Turkey, Israel and the Iraqi insurgents - will not only play a major role in determining the stability of Iraq, but also in formulating the prospects for the legitimacy of the interim government. At least for now, that government is seen as a puppet and a supplicant of the US, at a time when anti-Americanism is on the rise, not just in Iraq, but also across the Middle East.

The Bush administration changed its strategy in Iraq from a largely unilateral occupation - even though a number of nations have their forces present - to a presumed strategy of multilateralism before handing over the authority to an interim government. In that strategy the United Nations and the new Iraqi interim government were given a visible role. However, the very modality of the participation of the former representative of the world body, Lakhdar Brahimi, in the selection of the personnel of that government demonstrated that the UN remained indubitably squeamish about challenging the-behind-the-scenes scheming of Washington in that process.

The lingering question was how independent the interim government was going to be of US pressure and manipulation after it takes charge. Then, some representatives of that body had to go to the UN Security Council and personally assure the doubting permanent members - China, France and Russia - that they will indeed exercise autonomy, and thereby establish legitimacy. For a majority of Iraqis, the ball is now very much in the court of the new government. It must establish that it is not merely a willing supplicant in carrying out the wishes of its Western master. The continued escalation or de-escalation of violence in Iraq in the coming months will prove whether the interim government will fail or succeed in that test. The interim government will be in charge until Iraqis vote in a general election, which must take place by January 31 next year, according to a UN Security Council resolution.

In the meantime, three actors - Iran, Turkey and Israel - are already involved in a dangerous game of promoting their clashing strategic presence and agendas, thereby making Iraq a highly unstable place. Of the three, Iran's presence or maneuverings are the most ancient ones because of Iraq's historical role as the theological center of Shi'ite Islam. As such, Iran regards its role in the future political dynamics of its neighbor as genuine, and highly warranted. What is not clear, however, is what role Iran should play in influencing the nature of the future government in Iraq: whether it should push for a theocracy a la the Islamic Republic, or a moderate Islamic government? From the vantage point of the Iraqi Shi'ites, there is no overriding evidence that they want the creation of an Iran-style democratic theocracy, which is more theocratic than democratic, given the heavy-handed performance of the hardliners regarding political reforms. Even if the notion of separation of religion and politics were to prevail in Iraq, Iran would still play a crucial role in the power play inside Iraq, a reality that is deeply resented by the US and Israel. As a tactical move, Washington must now connive in the Israeli maneuvers to frustrate and undermine the Iranian schemes to enhance its own influence in Iraq, since the success of Israel will be complementary to the American clout and presence in Iraq, or at least so hope Bush officials.

(SNIP)

If the end of occupation on June 28 meant the emergence of a sovereign interim Iraqi government, that reality has not yet materialized, at least not in the eyes of a majority of Iraqis. The most complicating factor for the interim government is not to appear as a pawn in the hands of the Americans, Turks, Iranians, but especially the Israelis. However, with everything else that it must accomplish in the meantime - the most important of which is the ability to reestablish or sustain basic services and oil distribution facilities and reduce the unemployment rate, which is reported to be between 30-60% - the interim government is indeed faced with an awesome, and potentially insurmountable, task.

The interim government in Iraq must do all it can to persuade the Iraqis that the current phase is not the extension of American occupation under another name. At the same time, the continued presence of foreign forces will constantly serve as a reminder that Prime Minister Iyad Allawi and President Ghazi al-Yawar are wrong in their claims of being either sovereign or independent of the Americans. In the meantime, the insurgents will also do all they can to prove the new Iraqi rulers wrong.

2//KurdishMedia, UK 29/06/2004
http://www.kurdmedia.com/news.asp?id=5171

KURDISH IRAQ LEADER HINTS AT SECESSION

Baghdad, Iraq, Jun. 29 (UPI) -- Kurdish Iraqi leader Massud Barzani warned Tuesday that the Kurds will not honor Iraq's unity unless a federal and democratic system is installed.

"Kurds are not less important than Arabs in Iraq ... We cannot accept to remain second class citizens and if Iraq does not become a federal and democratic country we will not live in it," Barzani, leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party said in an interview with the Saudi daily al-Hayat.

He called on Iraq's new interim government under Iyad Allawi to honor the terms of the State Administration Law, which upholds the Kurds' right to autonomy in northern Iraq, when drafting the country's permanent constitution.

"Unless these terms are met, we won't have any commitment toward Iraq's unity," he said, in a veiled threat to secede from Iraq.

(SNIP)

"The Kurdish nation was divided by force exactly like the Arab nation ... This is a fact and this nation is destined to reunite eventually and become an independent state," he said, airing Kurdish aspirations for an independent entity comprising regions they claim in Iraq, Turkey, Syria and Iran.

3//The Daily Times, Pakistan Wednesday, June 30, 2004
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_30-6-2004_pg4_15

SHIAS WILL SEEK AUTHORITY FROM IRAQ

TEHRAN: The rise of a secular, democratic Iraq could pose a threat to Iran's Shia clerical establishment, which fears it would serve as a powerful model for moderate Iranians who seek change, clerics said.

Many senior clerics are particularly concerned about any shift in the centre of gravity within Shia Islam away from Iran's holy city of Qom, from where clerics wield immense political authority, towards Najaf in neighbouring Iraq.

The emergence of Najaf coincides with the rise to political prominence of Iraqi clerics, such as Ayatollah Ali Sistani, who question the legitimacy of absolute rule by the clergy. "Now Najaf as a more moderate centre will regain the place it held for most of the past 1,500 years," said Hadi Qabel, a reformist mid-ranking cleric from Qom. "It will rejuvenate the role of clerics throughout the Shia world."

"Iraqi moderate clerics like Ayatollah Ali Sistani do not consider ruling the country as their legitimate right," he said.

Monday's formal transfer of sovereignty from a US-led coalition to an Iraqi interim government represents a further opportunity for the rehabilitation of Iraq's Shia community, which was brutally suppressed under Saddam Hussein. Iran fears Washington may promote its secular ally Iraq as a model for Shias to emulate in pressing for change in the Islamic state, which Washington accuses of harbouring terrorism and pursuing nuclear weapons.

(SNIP)

Reformists, including President Mohammad Khatami, have repeatedly warned their rival conservatives against creating an anti-democratic "path of extremism" that he says risks alienating people from Islam.

They argue that blocking reform that could eventually see Iran become a democratic Islamic state could paradoxically help to promote Najaf as an alternative centre.

(MORE)

4//The Scotsman, UK Tue 29 Jun 2004
http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=742492004

DIFFERENT ELECTIONS BATTLES COULD SEPARATE UNITED BUSH AND BLAIR
Fraser Nelson, Political Editor

THEY looked at their watches, and smiled. George Bush and Tony Blair had known for a week about the early handover of power and scribbled notes to each other yesterday at the NATO summit in Istanbul when they knew the deed was done.

Afterwards, both the United States president and the Prime Minister spoke as if it was a matter of closure: Iraq was once a dictatorship; now it has its own free government committed to democracy.

But the relief yesterday was temporary. The political battle for both men is far from over: both are facing re- election and both will be haunted by the situation in Iraq every step of the way.

The Washington administration seems to be admitting a quiet defeat on the "Bush doctrine" - a neoconservative vision of pre-emption that meant that the US would take out a threat while it was emerging. Any pre-emptive attack would have to be based on intelligence - and the furore about the use of intelligence makes it unlikely that any dossier would be trusted in future. For Mr Bush, this is a real loss.

Mr Blair, however, has more reason to be downbeat. His case for war with Iraq was always far more narrow than that of the US president - and this predicament can be traced to a fundamental error that he made in 1975. This was the year he joined the Labour Party.

To get the war past his back-benchers, he needed to rely on arguments of international law - and on the argument that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction that were posing a palpable danger to the West.

Mr Bush said he wanted to replace dictatorship with democracy - his main reason was "regime change". This was enthusiastically backed by the conservatives.

But Mr Blair never once admitted that this was his motive. If he had done so, he would have been defeated by his party in the House of Commons. He took Britain to war on an entirely different prospectus.

At election time, Mr Blair will be judged by many on whether this was an entirely false prospectus.

While Mr Bush can claim vindication, in that Iraq is no longer a threat to its neighbours and is no longer throwing bodies into mass graves, Mr Blair cannot pretend that these goals were those he presented to his electorate.

For Mr Blair, his election time may well be judged by the simple question: did he take Britain into war with Iraq on the basis of a lie? There was nothing yesterday to defend the Prime Minister on this crucial question.

The next problem for the Prime Minister is that his Iraq project has failed to buy leverage with the White House. The US continued to impose tariffs on steel, punishing British companies and ignoring British protests.

(MORE)

5//The Philippine Daily Inquirer Posted: 0:47 AM (Manila Time) | Jun. 30, 2004
http://www.inq7.net/nat/2004/jun/30/nat_2-1.htm

TIGHT SECURITY, ROSES FOR MACAPAGAL
By Juliet Labog-Javellana in Manila and Connie E. Fernandez, Inquirer News Service

Amidst "blanket security" and thousands of orange and crimson roses, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo takes her oath on Wednesday as the country's 14th president.

To ensure that Wednesday's inauguration of Macapagal-Arroyo goes off smoothly, police have thrown a "security blanket" around all of Cebu City, placed malls under watch, sealed off the main avenue -- and even taken stray dogs off the streets.

"We have not received any threats but we are not taking any chances," said Superintendent Augusto Marquez Jr., operations chief of the Police Regional Office in Central Visayas (PRO-7).

At least 7,000 military and police personnel are involved in the security operation for the historic oath-taking of Macapagal-Arroyo in the city -- the only time in the country's history that an elected president would formally assume office in ceremonies outside Manila.

(SNIP)

The task force is composed of the police, Army, Police Center for Aviation Security, Air Force and Navy.

Spy in every corner

A police officer told the Inquirer there would also be an intelligence agent in every corner of Metro Cebu.

Some organizations had also been tapped to help the police in providing intelligence information.

Even stray dogs were taken off the streets. City officials found it improper to have the canines around while Macapagal-Arroyo was taking her oath of office.

Some 5,000 dozen golden orange and crimson red roses grown in Busay, Cebu, will adorn the hydraulic circular stage where Macapagal-Arroyo will take her oath at high noon.

Nilo Agustin, executive assistant of Tourism Secretary Roberto Pagdanganan, said the President herself chose the colors of the flag to symbolize nationalism and unity.

(MORE)