A Guide to Knowns and Unknowns
June 18, 2002
"The United States Defense Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, has baffled journalists in Brussels by explaining the greatest threat to Western civilization may lurk in what he has termed 'unknown unknowns'."
- ABC News
Caveat: I am in no way connected with the staff of U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, nor do I have any official position with the current U.S. administration. However, as a Concerned U.S. Citizen, I feel it is my patriotic duty to come to the aid of the Hon. Secretary and the Department of Defense.
The DOD Dictionary:
1. Knowns - Things that we know. Ex.-the sun will rise tomorrow. Almost a dead certainty, at least for the next several centuries.
2. Known Knowns - Things that we know we know. Ex.-we already know that we know that the sun will rise tomorrow. No surprises here.
3. Known Unknowns - Things that we know we don't know. Ex.-we don't know if Saddam Hussein will use weapons of mass destruction against us (or anyone else) at sunrise (a Known [1] and a Known Known [2]) tomorrow.
4. Unknown Knowns - Things that we know, but don't know that we know. Possibly a trick question and an oxymoron, or maybe not. Who knows? Ex.-did we have prior knowledge about the 9/11/02 attack on the World Trade Center and we just didn't know we knew? It's a puzzlement.
5. Unknown Unknowns - Things that we don't know that we don't know. Ex.-no example available. If there was an example, then it would come under the terms of either 1, 2, 3, or 4 (or a combination of two or more) above.
6. Things We're Pretty Sure Of - OK, we don't really Know (1), and we certainly don't Know We Know (2), nor do we Know That We Don't Know (3) but, based on secret information gathered by the FBI and CIA that we can't talk about for security reasons, we're almost sure. Ex.-prior inklings of the 9/11/02 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center.
7. Suspicions - Things we suspect, but don't Know(1). Ex.-too numerous to list here. We suspect everything, even things you haven't thought of yet. Is there an Al-Qaeda satellite armed with laser weapons able to strike and devastate any location on earth? Have the Saudis purchased a fleet of mothballed B-747s, equipped them with bomb bays, loaded them up with Russian hydrogen bombs, and delivered them to the Al-Qaeda at a remote airfield in Pakistan? Does the water taste "funny"? Should we all be wearing aluminum foil beanies? We have our suspicions.
I hope this has helped to clarify the situation for all working journalists.
A Concerned Citizen
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