September 23, 2004
Kerry is Doing Much Better than the Polls StateA BUZZFLASH READER CONTRIBUTION
by Andrew Limburg
Accurate voter turnout has not been part of the equation for pollsters.
Recently Pollster John Zogby of Zogby International wrote an article discussing how the Newsweek Poll that showed an 11-point lead for the president after the convention was flawed and deceitful.
Zogby's article stated that, ''If we look at the three last Presidential elections, the (percentage of voters per party) was 34% Democrats, 34% Republicans and 33% Independents (in 1992 with Ross Perot in the race); 39% Democrats, 34% Republicans, and 27% Independents in 1996; and 39% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 26% Independents in 2000. While party identification can indeed change within the electorate, there is no evidence anywhere to suggest that Democrats will only represent 31% of the total vote this year. In fact, other competitors have gone in the opposite direction. The Los Angeles Times released a poll in June of this year with 38% Democrats and only 25% Republicans. And Gallup's party identification figures have been all over the place."
Unfortunately, the deceitful Newsweek Poll that showed the 11-point "bounce" was because the pollsters at Newsweek polled "38% Republican, 31% Democrat and 31% Independent voters". This is very deceitful because the Republicans, in recent history have NOT come even come close to that type of voter turnout. Pollster Scott Rasmussen says the Time Magazine Poll that showed an 11- point bounce after the convention, also over sampled 38% Republicans.
What should be taken under consideration is the level of motivation that the Democrats and Republicans have. While it is true that the left is not overly thrilled about Kerry, there is great motivation not seen in a very long time, on the democratic side of the voter spectrum to remove Bush from power. This is evident from the largest protests since Vietnam both in February 2003, and the record breaking protest during the Republican Convention. It's obvious that the left is very motivated to remove Bush.
Some more evidence of the motivation from the left, was the voter turnout that broke records in many of the early Democratic primaries. The voter turnout in the primaries faded as the choice became clear, but there can be no denying how motivated the left is.
Second of all, while is true that Bush has strong support among the Republican base, there are many, while they do not intend to vote for Kerry, are finding it difficult to pull the lever for Bush. They are generally moderate Republicans and Independents who have voted Republican in the past and they are concerned about Bush's spending, the deficit, the economy and his arrogance with international affairs. Bush has alienated some long time friends, and not all Republicans are pleased about this.
To expand on the spending concerns, not only has defense spending ballooned, but domestic spending has increased at a faster rate than any other president in history. Also, because of a combination of Bush spending like a drunken sailor, and tax cuts, 40 percent of which went to the richest 1 percent of the people, the deficit has increased to $7 trillion.
So as you can see, not only is it obscene and not historically accurate to take a poll using 38% Republicans, 31% Democrats, and 31% Independents, it is also inaccurate to take polls based upon what has happened over the last 3 elections. (I.e. 34% Republican, 34% Democrat, 33% Independent). Because based upon the motivations on the right and the left, we could see very high voter turnout on the Democratic and Independent side, and lower turnout on the Republican side.
So don't believe the polls. Just go out and vote.
A BUZZFLASH READER CONTRIBUTION
Originally published on Independent Media TV.
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