Why Gustav greatly benefits John McCain

Yes, it's likely tacky to talk about the impact of Gustav on the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, and on the subsequent McCain/Palin ticket. But we live in a political reality that isn't always pretty or politically correct, so here we go.

Let's start with the speeches. George W. Bush and Dick Cheney were scheduled to speak Monday night. And they didn't. Yes, they could have rallied Republicans. But people other than Republicans would have sliced and diced the speech, exposing it to many forces including, but not limited to, Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert. The last thing Republicans really want is public speeches from Bush and Cheney. After all, Cheney wasn't originally going to speak, and then suddenly he was. Overall: plus for the Republicans.

Then there are the speeches from John McCain and Sarah Palin. After the eloquent speeches from many Democrats last week, including Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the expectations and pressure were high for the Republican nominees. Well, now, the speeches (if they happen) will be low-key, and less focus will be spent on the speeches. Without the Gustav issue, the speeches from McCain and Palin would have seemed weak. Overall: huge plus for the Republicans.

Gustav also shows off the Republicans in a better light since the expectations out of Katrina are so low that any effort by the Bush Administration makes Republicans look better. A President Gore, President Kerry, or President Obama would have done a whole lot better with Katrina, but since a lot of voters respond to what they see instead of hypotheticals, Republicans look better as a result. But Gustav reminds voters of the awfulness of the Bush response to Katrina. Overall: slight plus for the Republicans.

The Republicans weren't going to get the same kind of bounce from their convention as the Democrats did in Denver. The storm allows the RNC to have an excuse. It's like the kid who did a really lousy job on his homework, but actually had the assignment eaten by a dog (with witnesses), and then says, "Well, if the dog hadn't eaten my homework, you would have seen what an awesome job I did."

This was a convention where more than 10 percent of the Republican members of the United States Senate didn't show up. Taking the spotlight away from the convention on to anything is a blessing for the GOP. That McCain gets to look good focused on Gustav adds to the picturesque drama.

The McCain/Palin ticket will have a lot of problems, especially at the start. But other problems sure to come won't be as severe, and they have Gustav to thank for that.

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