Close? No: A Blowout? Yes

As John McCain begins to resemble Bob Dole in sight, sound and superannuation a bit more every day, his presidential prospects are beginning to look much the same, as well.

Notwithstanding George W. Bush's best efforts at demoralizing and dismantling the conservative base, this, said the pundits, was bound to be another squeaker of a presidential election year, with virtually all the states retaining their familiar, partisan hues.

Hence it would come down to two or three purple ones -- likely Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida -- just like last time. It's going to be dicey, they said.

Early statistical indicators, however, suggest anything but. In fact, they foreshadow a blowout.

Once Barack Obama's candidacy emerged uncontested within his own party, his polling against John McCain instantly adopted a certain and favorable disequilibrium that is appearing throughout the various polling organization's numbers. And in conformity, there is growing confidence.

First there was the Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll, which revealed some rather startling insights into what the race looked like once Hillary Clinton was out -- presumably, taking some huge chunks of her coalition with her, principally, of course, women.

But that wasn't the case at all, with the poll finding that Obama's lead against McCain among women generically was a whopping 19 points (Gallup and Rasmussen allowing 13). And among Hispanics? -- that immensely important ethnic bloc that word had it from Hillary's camp only Hillary could carry for the Dems? Obama immediately scored a crushing advantage of 62 to McCain's 28.

Even among white men, said the WSJ-NBC News poll, Obama's numerical disadvantage was a five-point improvement over John Kerry's 2004 showing and four better than Al Gore's in 2000.

Then, this week, came the Washington Post-ABC News poll. Although its statistical specifics in terms of gender and ethnicity are also favorable to Obama, its greatest encouragement for the Democrat lay in what some might find the most dispiriting stat: that he and McCain, that is, break even among independents.

But actually, that's an enormous advantage for Obama. Look at it this way. Even if McCain's shrinking Republican base turns out for him -- which is questionable -- and Obama's much larger and expanding Democratic base also turns out, and the two only split the independent vote, then McCain loses, because he will have failed to sufficiently compensate for his own vanishing numbers.

Plus, reasonable expectations would dictate that by fall -- with, according to the Washington Post-ABC poll, 84 percent of the electorate saying their nation is on a disastrous track -- independents will begin to decisively break for Obama.

In addition, this election is rapidly shaping up as a referendum on Bush-McCain economics, the outcome of which speaks for itself (and if not, I'll just add that Obama leads in this category by 16 points). Add to that the Democratic nominee's advantage of 20 points on handling gasoline prices and improving health care, and a blistering 32 point lead on women's issues, and one begins to see an electoral catastrophe in the making for John McCain.

Yet I have saved the best and most recent findings for last: yesterday's Quinnipiac University Swing State poll, from which I quote directly.

"With strong support from women, blacks and younger voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama ... leads Arizona Sen. John McCain ... among likely voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania....

"This is the first time Sen. Obama has led in all three states. No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac University polls show:

"Florida: Obama edges McCain 47-43 percent; Ohio: Obama tops McCain 48-42 percent; Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 52-40 percent."

Bill Clinton won Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida in 1996, as well as other states -- e.g. Missouri, Iowa and New Mexico -- aggressively contested by and now atmospherically favorable to Barack Obama. And how did Bill's electoral count add up? Three-hundred seventy-nine to Bob Dole's 159.

Sure, it's early. Sure, a lot could change. Sure, predictions are troublesome things. But I'll skirt close to one anyway: We're looking at a blowout.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1187