McCain's Troubles, and My Sincere Thanks to Hillary

The specified number, of course, is the needed electoral-vote count -- which George Bush exceeded by only 16 in 2004 -- and the "there" referred to is the expansive territory of traditional Republican states. That, in a nutshell, is Barack Obama's general election strategy, as outlined for The New York Times by his campaign manager, David Plouffe.

In effect, John McCain is under siege, or at least he soon will be. If anything keeps him up at night, it is surely the stark realization that his loose and rather shaky coalition of distrustful conservatives and unreliable independents is a mile wide but only an inch deep.

As a result, McCain is finding himself in a defensive position almost everywhere -- from North Carolina, straight through the nation's heartland in states such as Missouri and, almost incredibly, on out West to Montana.

As I wrote a couple weeks ago, some GOP strategists remain, to use politicians' favorite patois, cautiously optimistic about McCain chances. While acknowledging the ocean of scenario-changing time between now and November, one observed that "We’re actually sitting pretty well in most states.... McCain looks a lot stronger than our prospects as a party." (Not the most encouraging comparison for the Arizona senator, all things considered.)

Said another GOPer: "The broader environment clearly favors the Democrat. [But] a state-by-state analysis actually makes McCain a narrow favorite to win the Electoral College majority."

Those scenarios, however, are pre-siege -- an Obama offensive not only against McCain's strategic weak points, but a slash-and-burn campaign against the Republican nominee in virtually all 50 states.

It's going to exhaust McCain, physically, mentally and, above all, in financial resources.

While he's attempting to put out Obama-started fires in the swing states of, say, Pennsylvania and Ohio, the Democratic nominee will already be dumping personal facetime and millions of advertising dollars into the now-thin Republican states of Georgia and North Carolina.

By the time McCain travels to the most recently opened of Obama fronts, the latter will be long gone, campaigning in Missouri or Montana or Virginia and, most ominously for McCain, soaking them all with boatloads of media cash.

The anticipated outcome is the wearing down and out of the financially strapped McCain campaign. As the NY Times paraphrased Obama's strategists: "Some states where they intend to campaign -- like Georgia, Missouri, Montana and North Carolina -- might ultimately be too red to turn blue. But the result of making an effort there could force Mr. McCain to spend money or send him to campaign in what should be safe ground, rather than using those resources in states like Ohio."

Add to that mix an Obama veep pick of Ohio's Governor Ted Stickland or Pennsylvania's Ed Rendell, either of whom can singlehandedly keep the McCain forces pinned down in his respective swing state, and the GOP's candidate will soon be wondering why he didn't just settle for that fat Senate pension and Cindy's modest millions.

It's still far too early, of course, to accurately read a November electoral map. But Obama's financial ability to launch a 50-state strategy against McCain's current financial ability to launch what amounts by comparison to a 50-precinct strategy provides a persuasive peek.

Hence a little retrospection.

The two principal and positive results -- amidst the torrent of negatives -- from Obama's protracted primary war with Sen. Hillary Clinton were that he accumulated piles of ever-increasing cash from ever-increasingly enthusiastic donors and, second, he was forced to mobilize a nearly 50-state get-out-the-vote operation in the pursuit of victories in previously neglected, smaller and largely Republican states.

He accomplished both brilliantly. Yet perhaps both accomplishments would have been less than splendid without Hillary's determined if not quixotic and, at times, party-destructive opposition -- and for that we can extend to Mrs. Clinton, however begrudgingly, our gratitude.

That is scarcely a unique insight; nevertheless it is one that progressives of all partisan stripes should reconcile to.

Now, let the new asymmetrical games begin. Lacking cash, McCain's camp will need to compensate with creative ingenuity -- and knowing the GOP, it will be full of real duzzies.