It's Now Or Never for Superdelegates

The most accurate poll in the 2000 & 2004 General Election. Nice Graphic Map that's easy to read.
You can check Obama/McCain & Clinton/McCain General election electoral votes.

Take heed if you're a true Democrat!!

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/May25.html

First, a note: Please use symbol for LessThan, then BR, then GreaterThan, to get a one line page-BREAK. Use LessThan p GreaterThan to get a new PARAGRAPH. Or google "HTML basics" to pick up on some other good "TAG" tips, which will make your post cleaner and more readable here in Buzzflash's posting system. Here's a good one...

Now, to your comment. Yes, we believe that Gore won by well over a million votes, not the half-million that the major media posts; and Gregg Palast suggests Republicans stole (and trashed) over 5 million votes in the last election... and that Dems will have to beat an EIGHT MILLION VOTE FIX in 2008.

Which just highlights the ABJECT CORRUPTION of Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House, who pretends not to notice all this vote stealing. (Which, if prosecuted and detailed energetically, would lead to massive outrage vs BushCo.)

I would like to propose that Democrats plan and coordinate a massive "I VOTED DEMOCRAT!" pledge or affadavit upon leaving the polling station. This would give a ROCK-BOTTOM bedrock, the minimum number of Democratic votes cast for president and/or Congress at that particular polling site.

This is of course a huge undertaking, but not quite as demanding as launching the American Revolution! /: )

And, finally, it is time once and for all for Americans to BREAK THE MYTHS of Right-Wing propaganda. As far as I'm concerned, any Lying Righties who say that they "Hate SOCIALIZED BIG GOVERNMENT SPENDING!" should be BANNED from our public roads and highways - at point of bayonet if necessary! - until they aknowledge that government spending should be the BEST things in America not the worst. (Everything that Righties take for granted - our Apollo rockets and moon landing, our roads and highways, our safe airline travel; their federally insured bank accounts, pensions; tens of millions of jobs created downstream from government spending (i.e. a new shopping plaza and hotels built close to an interstate exit), and of course the Holy of Holies for Righties, OUR MILITARY SPENDING - are ALL SOCIALIZED GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS.)

When Righties screech "Socialized big-government welfare" it is of course CODE for Racism and class war. They don't seem to mind well-connected lobbyists making 6-figure incomes off of the backs of taxpayers; but they will piss and moan and scream if America's schoolchildren are given medical examinations that might prevent a fatal illness taking hold.

The unvarnished Right-Wing agenda harkens back to, not just slavery here in America, but the Cruel EVICTIONS of English, Irish, Scots, and other European (peasants) from their homelands, by brutal and authoritarian absentee landlords and their hired armies.

One persons opinion that's been proven wrong over & over again!

WHAT NUMBER DID YOU HAVE IN MIND?
Over on Democratic Underground, the morelocks are getting all excited about the "odds" of the exit polls being wrong. Here's part of what DU member "TruthIsAll" says.

Those are the odds that Kerry's EXIT poll percentage would EXCEED his ACTUAL reported vote percentage by MORE THAN THE
MARGIN OF ERROR in 16 out of 51 States by chance alone. That is exactly what occurred on Nov. 2.

I know that is hard to fathom. But here is the data. And here is the calculation, based on the number of individuals polled in each state and the corresponding Margin of Error (MOE).

The chances of a given state falling outside the MOE = 1/20 =.05. The calculation for the probability that 16 out of 51 states would fall outside the MOE is a simple one which uses the BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION:

The Probability (P) that at least 16 out of 51 states would deviate beyond the exit poll MOE is:

P = 1-BINOMDIST(16,51,0.05,TRUE)

This returns P= 0.0000000218559% or 1 out of 4,575,415,347!

He then lists the state by state data that he uses.

Sounds pretty damn impressive doesn't it? So does Geordi La Forge but his scientific techno-babble is mostly fiction too.

And who is "TruthIsAll"? Well, you may remember him from the pre-election crowd trying to predict the election. He had a problem though. His inputs and assumptions were bad. He assumed Kerry would get a huge percentage of the undecideds and he ignored pollsters he didn't like (complaining about "corporate" polls). His results reflected his biases.

TruthIsAll's complicated and thorough election simulation predicted a Kerry win, 51.8% to 48.2%, with an electoral victory of 337-201. He pegged the probability of Kerry winning at 99.8%, which is a virtual certainty. And his statistics work with the numbers was probably right on. The problem is the garbage data he used.

And he's right about the odds of polling being outside the margin of error - kinda. If the exit polls were correctly specified, the odds are damn low that 16 states would be screwed up outside the margin of error. But the margin of error concept assumes a truly random sample from your universe. The only way to be sure the exit polls were true random samples, is to sample EVERY precinct and blindly select the voters to be sampled - and every voter so selected would have to both consent to the survey and accurately answer the questions. TruthIsAll assumes that the exit polling was a true, respresentative sample of the national vote, but that the national vote itself was not.

For example, take Florida. TruthIsAll believes the Exit Polling that said Kerry would win with 50.51% of the vote (You have to love that .01% he got in there to show his accuracy). Thus, he has to discount the poll taken in Florida on November 2 (we call it the "election") as well as the majority of polls taken in Florida throughout October, which showed Bush leading by as many as 8%. And despite those polls (positives a Bush lead, negatives are Kerry, here they are 9,5,4,-2,8,3,4,3,-1,3,-1,1,3,0,-3,2,8,3,2,0,-1.6,4,5,4,-3,8,4,-5,1,0 and Kerry did not poll at higher than 50% ever before the election, and at 50% only a handful of times), TruthIsAll calculated - using "statistics" a probability that Kerry would win Florida at 86.49%. No one watching the polls throughout October could have possibly thought Kerry had a greater than 50% chance at Florida.

I calculated a probability of a Bush win in Florida at 63.9%. In Ohio at 53.6%. TruthIsAll pegged Ohio at 86.49% for Kerry. His calculations weren't bad, but his assumptions were. While TruthIsAll predicted Kerry would win with 51.8% of the vote. I predicted Bush with 50.5% (he got 50.9%). TruthIsAll said the electoral college would go 337-201 for Kerry. I said 296-242 for Bush in my composite (I missed Wisconsin where Kerry won by less than 1/2 of a percent), and my election simulation said 285-253 (1 point off!).

Check out Sam Wang and Stuart Theil. Sam Wang's a professor up at Princeton. He didn't ignore data he didn't like and his simulation nailed it. Bush 286, Kerry 252. He also did some assuming (like TruthIsAll) about how "undecideds" would break and got a result similar to TruthIsAll. Kerry 311-227. Stuart Thiel predicted a Bush win of 278-260 (though I don't remember him having these numbers on Nov. 2 - but I could be wrong).

So, TruthIsAll opened up his spreadsheet once again, input bad data and came up with conclusions to establish something for which there is no evidence. That the exit polls were correct and there was wholesale, widespread, historic vote fraud. And the leftfringe is eating it up.

Are you aware that over 3 million votes were uncounted and at least 70% were Kerry votes?

Are you aware that the unadjusted exit polls indicated an average 6.7% Within Precinct Error (WPE) which translates to a Kerry 52-47% win?

Are you aware that Kerry won 54% of the 6 million late votes (absentees, provisionals)?

On the one hand you say that the election was stolen. But that is exactly what my Election Model indicated - Kerry won with 52% of the vote..

On the other hand, you claim that your model was correct because it matched the recorded vote which we both agree was fraudulent. I must be missing something here.

For your projection model to be correct, you must believe that Bush won the True Vote. But the True Vote was not the same as the fraudulent Recorded Vote.

Your criticism of my data, assumptions and methodology has no merit whatsoever. Kerry won. Get over it.

Barrack Obama for vice president 2008-2016

Barrack Obama for president 2016-2024

This is the best of all possible outcomes. Instant unity among Democrats with a plan to hold the White House for the forseeable future. This is the duty of the "super delegates" under the party rules that created them. To open up the primary process and then have a plan to "broker" the convention to do what is right and best for the future of the Democratic Party.

Let's put down our swords now, and do what Democrats do -- move forward.

Just my opinion. What I think should happen.

White voter problem"? You bet he does! Latino, Women & Middle class voters too!

Obama, Underperforming Kerry Among White Voters

The Hillary-friendly bloggers at TalkLeft note that “Barack Obama has not gotten more than 40 percent of the white vote since Wisconsin, where he won the white vote.”

It’s an imperfect comparison to weigh demographics from a primary election against a general election. Still, it would seem hard to imagine a scenario in which Obama gets a larger share of the white vote in the general election than he did in recent Democratic primaries. A not insignificant chunk of the white vote is Republican, and while “Operation Chaos,” a disinterest in the fairly-quickly-settled GOP primary, or genuine Obamacans may have boosted the number of Republicans who voted in this year’s Democratic primaries, the pool of voters who will turn out in November are likely to be whiter and less inclined to vote for Obama than the Democratic primary voter pools.

In other words, if Obama can't close the deal with white Democrats, it will be an uphill climb to win over white independents and white Republicans.

There will probably be a little more than 32 million votes cast in the Democratic primary this year. The total turnout in 2004 was 122 million Americans, which amounted to 60.7 percent of eligible voters. In other words, there are probably about 90 million Americans who will vote in November who did not vote in this year’s Democratic primary.

(Obama will almost certainly drive up African-American turnout in the general election this year, but the gap between this and other demographics has shrunk significantly. In 2004, 87.4 percent of registered African-Americans cast a ballot in the Presidential election, according to statistics compiled by the US Census Bureau, compared with 89.4 percent turnout among registered, non-Hispanic whites.)

In state after state, Barack Obama is drastically underperforming John Kerry’s general election numbers among whites among a voter pool almost entirely limited to Democrats.

In the Ohio Democratic primary, Barack Obama carried 34 percent of the white vote. In the 2004 general election, John Kerry carried 44 percent of the white vote.

In Pennsylvania, Obama carried 37 percent of the white vote. In the 2004 general election, John Kerry carried 45 percent.

In Missouri, Obama won 39 percent of the white vote. In the 2004 general election, John Kerry carried 42 percent of the white vote.

This phenomenon occurs in states that aren’t seen as teeming with those classic Rust Belt/Midwest demographics. In Connecticut, Obama carried 48 percent of the white vote; John Kerry carried 51 percent.

In New Jersey, Obama carried 31 percent of the white vote. In the 2004 general election, Kerry carried 46 percent.

In Rhode Island, Obama carried 37 percent of the white vote. In the 2004 general election Kerry carried 57 percent of the white vote.

In Maryland, Obama carried 42 percent of the white vote; Kerry carried 44 percent in the 2004 general election.

There are a few states where Obama’s primary percentage outpaces Kerry’s general election share. In North Carolina, Obama carried 37 percent of the white vote. In the 2004 general election, John Kerry carried 27 percent. (So much for help from John Edwards.)

In Indiana, Obama carried 40 percent of the white vote; Kerry carried 34 percent.

In New Mexico, Obama carried 55 percent of the white vote, Kerry got 43 percent. (Of course, in that state, Kerry carried 56 percent of the Latino vote (32 percent of the electorate that year), while Obama carried 36 percent of that key demographic in this year’s caucus, according to exit polls.)

But overall, it seems extremely likely that Barack Obama will get a smaller share of the white vote than John Kerry did in 2004 – requiring a huge turnout among other demographics. Some, like African-Americans, have already demonstrated great enthusiasm for Obama. Others, like Latinos…haven’t, at least not yet.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008PrimariesLinks.htm

A rigged New Hampshire primary kept Clinton in the race. Hillary thought she would have the nomination locked up by Super Tuesday, Feb.5. The GOP wanted to run against her from the start. They knew that they couldn’t beat Edwards in the GE, so they made sure that he would be out of the race if they got the media to ignore him. But Obama proved to be a much tougher opponent than either the GOP or Clinton ever expected.

So now Clinton and the GOP are doing everything they can to prop up Hillary and derail Obama. Beginning with her miraculous New Hampshire “win”, there has been an ongoing effort to pad her votes at Obama's expense. Rovian tactics are being used to divide and conquer: it’s the only way that McCain can win. The media does not discuss the many indications of election fraud.

Obama currently leads Clinton by over 700,000 in the recorded vote and by over 160 in pledged delegates. But if the exit polls and caucuses reflect the True Vote, he would be leading by more than 1.5 million votes. That would make a tremendous difference in his pledged delegate margin. Obama would be the nominee right now were it not for election fraud.

Primaries, Caucuses and Exit Polls

Obama does much better in human-counted caucuses than in machine-counted primaries. Texas is a perfect example. There’s a 30% difference in Obama’s margin between the primaries (49-47%) and the caucuses (66-34%). His recorded vote margin is dwarfed by his lead in the exit polls. But that’s not unexpected; the progressive (i.e. Democratic) candidate always does better in the exit polls than in the vote count due to the endemic fraud: uncounted and switched votes. It’s not due to biased exit polling. Ideally, the exit poll discrepancies would be equally distributed between the two parties. The fact that they always move in favor of the most conservative candidate indicates a pattern of fraud which is beyond a reasonable doubt.

In the 21 primaries which had exit polls: Obama leads by 50.4-45.8%. Clinton leads by an average 48.4-47.1% in the recorded vote. The discrepancy in margin from exit poll to the vote is 5.9%.

The exit poll-to-vote shift favored Clinton in 18 of the 21 states.

The 2.5% Margin of Error was exceeded in 11 of the 18 states.

The margin discrepancy exceeded 13% in 5 states.

The probability that all of these discrepancies would be due to chance is as close to zero as you can get.

Operation Chaos

Just before the March 4 Texas and Ohio primaries, Rush Limbaugh called for "Operation Chaos" to get Republicans to cross over and vote for Clinton. Since March 4, there have been two sets of Republican crossover voters. The first set consists of Republican moderates who voted 2-1 for Obama. The second consists of Operation Chaos Republicans who voted for Clinton. Final Exit poll data shows that since March 4, the percentage of Republican crossover voters has increased from 6% to 9%. The change has been totally to Clinton's benefit. Assuming the first 6% of Republicans voted 59-28% for Obama, the other 3% (150,000) were Operation Chaos crossovers who voted 100% for Clinton!

Prior to March 4, Obama won the seven primaries in which Republicans participated by an average 57-38% vote. He won the Republican vote by 59-28%.

Since March 4, Clinton has won the average vote by 51-47% and Republicans by 57-41%

Prior to March 4, Obama won the total vote by 50.1-45.6%.

Since March 4, Clinton is leading by 50.8-47.8%.

Operation Chaos was one factor which may very well have caused Obama to lose the Texas primary by 51-47%. It definitely caused his 50.6-49.4% defeat in Indiana. Of course, the effect on pledged delegates was minimal.

New Hampshire

The Final pre-election polls (3-4% MoE) gave Obama an average 8% margin over HRC. The early (unadjusted) exit poll had Obama winning by 8%. He won New Hampshire hand-counts by 5.90% but lost machine-counts by exactly the same margin.

South Carolina

Even though he finished third, Edwards would have done better in the general election than either Clinton or Obama.

Super Tuesday

Just like the 2004 battleground states exit poll red-shift to Bush, Clinton’s recorded vote share in 14 of 16 primaries have exceeded her exit poll share.

In New York, over 80 precincts, many in black areas, recorded Zero votes for Obama. Mayor Bloomberg called it fraud.

In Los Angeles, 90,000 independent votes were uncounted due to the confusing ballot design (shades of the infamous Florida 2000 “Butterfly” which cost Gore over 3,000 votes).

Ohio

Clinton's vote share exceeded her 9pm exit poll share by 3.6% (55.2-51.6%). She won the recorded vote by 10.6% (55.3-44.7%) over Obama. But her exit poll margin was just 3.4% (51.7-48.3%). As always, the Final Exit Poll was adjusted to match the vote count. In addition, there is concrete evidence that Republican cross-over voters played a significant role in delivering votes to Clinton. In Cuyahoga County 17,000 Republicans followed Rush Limbaugh’s advice and voted for her. And this was also the case in many other counties.

Texas

There was a strange, impossible result: Zero votes were cast for Republicans in 21 counties (all 36,239 ballots cast were for Democrats). There were zero votes cast for Democrats in 3 counties (all 1865 ballots cast were for Republicans). Did Republicans follow Rush Limbaugh’s advice and cross over to vote for Clinton? We can assume that crossovers, even if not 100%, occurred in other counties.

Mississippi

Obama won by 61-37%, but 25% of Clinton’s votes came from Republicans who followed the advice of Rush Limbaugh. Obama won 65% of Democrats and Independents.

Pennsylvania

Here dirty tricks caused votes (and pledged delegates) to be stolen from Obama. Hillary won the recorded vote by 54.7-45.3%. But 100% of the votes were machine-counted. The unadjusted, “pristine” early exit poll had Obama leading 52-47%. His 5% exit poll margin became a 9% recorded vote loss. Clinton led the adjusted exit poll by 52-47. The Final exit poll matched the recorded vote 54-45.

Indiana

The latest media myth is that Rush Limbaugh’s Operation Chaos had no effect on the Indiana primary. Their argument is that the Clinton-Obama (53-47) share of the 10% Republican crossover vote is virtually the same as the split in the total vote. Clinton won by 50.6-49.4%, but Operation Chaos Republican crossovers inflated her vote by 4%. Obama should have been a 51.5-48.5% winner.